Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Fueling Anxiety
(1) Hot spots. (2) Tracking the price of gasoline. (3) Republicans are on it. (4) Hot tip: SPR will be tapped. (5) Sanctions are crushing Iran’s economy. (6) Still overweighting Energy, but ready to lighten up. (7) Speculators hold record net longs in gasoline and almost half of US inventories. (8) Driving less. (9) Iran is the new risk for Risk-On trades. (10) Overweight-rated Consumer Discretionary performing well despite higher gasoline prices. (11) An upbeat assessment of Germany. (12) Central banks still pumping. (13) “The Grey” (+).
Apocalypse vs. Old Normal
(1) The end is near again. (2) Paulson says Greece is bigger than Lehman. (3) Orderly vs. disorderly default. (4) Iran is rattling and is rattled. (5) The sanctions are working. (6) To get reelected, Obama will draw on SPR to lower pump prices. (7) S&P 500 revenues holding up well. Margins, not so. (8) Old normal for jobless claims. (9) Global output turns weak as US offsets downturn in Europe.
Mountain of Debt
1) Mudslides on debt mountain. (2) Four thought-provoking essays on debt. (3) Wishful thinking on political will. (4) Keynes vs. Friedman vs. Fisher. (5) It is different this time in one important respect. (6) Bulls shopping for China. (7) Bull/Bear Ratio back over 2.0. (8) FSMI is bullish. (9) Driving less, but shopping more. (10) Still overweighting Apparel Retail.
Rolling Along
(1) Truck tonnage index barreling along to new highs. (2) Pedal to the metal in December. (3) Truck and train data support Double Recovery scenario. (4) Intermodal container loadings also at new record high. (5) More brand new autos riding the rails. (6) Third shifts. (7) SMidCap forward earnings at record high, while LargeCap stalls at previous high. (8) Why are margins under more pressure at large than small companies? (9) The decoupling question. (10) Still overweighting Air Freight & Logistics and Railroads.
The Valuation Question
(1) Kings and Oracles. (2) Dow 15,000. (3) Perma Bears growling less. (4) Economic Surprise Index driving equity valuation. (5) Tracking the Risk On/Off trade. (6) Adding more risk to sector allocation recommendations. (7) Lots of melt-ups among Consumer Discretionary stocks. (8) Will Foreclosure Gate deal boost foreclosures? (9) CBO sees trillion-dollar deficits in coming years. (10) “Safe House” (-).
Gridlock Is Working
(1) Negativity. (2) Policy meddling muddled economic recovery. (3) How to waste $800 billion. (4) Politicians are always shovel ready. (5) IMF’s Keynesians tell the Chinese what to do next. (6) PBoC is world-class QE champ. (7) Inflation still heading down in China. (8) Indonesia eases. (9) The euro refuses to break. (10) Weak dollar good for commodities.
OPM
(1) The banking cycle. (2) Achilles’ Heel of capitalism. (3) Lenders with skin in the game should make risky loans, not banks. (4) Bank stocks making a comeback. (5) Are banks running out of reserves to boost earnings? (6) Despite ZIRP and Bill Gross’ theory, bank loans are growing. (7) “Double Recovery” and “Homecoming” scenarios are bullish for stocks. (8) China and the US are offsetting Europe so far. (9) Focus on three Industrials.
Very Swift
(1) Economic Surprise Index is bullish. (2) Three risks. (3) More air coming out of earnings consensus. (4) Mullahs have lots of good reasons to be paranoid. (5) A major credit crunch for Iran. (6) Checkmate? (7) The Fed has set the stage for a fall in bond prices. (8) Globalization is behind the resilience of global economy. (9) Setback in Germany. (10) Focusing on Biotechnology, Paper Products, and Railroads.
Wish List
(1) Instant gratification. (2) Lots of happy employment indicators. (3) Reading the Riot Act to rioting Greeks. (4) Reformed Italian and Spanish governments are reforming. (5) ECB’s LTRO getting great reviews. (6) Iran’s checks won’t clear. (7) Democracy in China? (8) The Super Bowl indicator. (9) From relief rally to renewed bull market. (10) The Birth/Death Model is accurate. (11) “Red Tails” (+).
Hard Patch
(1) Finding traction. (2) Less commotion, more motion. (3) More gallop in latest Gallup jobs poll. (4) Driving from the showrooms. (5) Assembly lines are humming. (6) Why this time is different than 2008. (7) Americans buying more European junk. (8) UK produces upbeat PMI. (9) Is China transitioning already? (10) Analysts see record S&P 500 revenues in 2013. (11) But they have nothing good to say about profit margins.
Award-Winning Capitalists
(1) Bankruptcy beats the alternative. (2) Heart-warming war stories. (3) The turnaround artists. (4) Mitt’s fortune. (5) The ECB is friend and foe. (6) Bulls not asking for much, and getting it. (7) Jobless claims are down, but jobs are still hard to get. (8) Soft patches underneath solid Chinese and German PMIs.
Distressed Assets & Central Banks
(1) The playground of the 1%. (2) Sitting where JFK sat. (3) Distressed assets in the 1930s and now. (4) Bazookas and stealth bombers. (5) Will next LTRO hit €1 trillion? (6) The latest earnings season is lame. (7) Consumer-led growth likely in 2012. (8) Some upside surprises among global economic indicators. (9) The downside surprises aren’t surprising. (10) Misleading economic indicators.
Climbing the Wall
(1) Bullish contrary indicators from Davos and Barron’s. (2) Despite the bad press, Globalization is working. (3) Upbeat signals from US claims, European PMIs, Professor Copper, and Italian yields. (4) The prime minister’s speech. (5) Iran again. (6) The calm before another storm? (7) Another Greek deal. (8) Reversals of fortune. (9) US oil rig count is soaring. (10) Focus on Industrials. (11) “A Separation” (+ +).
Helicopter Ben
(1) Gallup suggests economy starting to gallop. (2) Industry analysts more upbeat on revenues than on earnings. (3) The profits squeeze. (4) The sector margin story. (5) Keeping very busy at the Fed. (6) Pegging the funds rate at zero and targeting inflation at 2%. (7) Ben’s helicopter speech is still the playbook. (8) Could Ben buy Italian bonds? (9) Three more years of unrelenting financial repression (UFR). (10) Housing recovery just a warm patch? (11) Some housing-related stocks may continue to outperform.
Year of the Dragon
(1) Good fortune. (2) Are seasonal factors exaggerating economy’s improvement? (3) From soft patch to warm patch and back? (4) Three regional Fed surveys are upbeat about the present and the future. (5) So who turned out the lights? (6) Only doves in the Fed’s coop. (7) The Fed’s new forecasting game. (8) ZIRP forever. (9) The IMF sees global soft landing. (10) No volume. No volatility.
Exhale
(1) What a relief! (2) Is S&P rating agency a contrary indicator? (3) The lender of last resort. (4) Bazooka or stealth bomber? (5) Saving bankers’ derrières. (6) Now inhale. (7) Earnings season is mostly a downer so far. (8) Iran’s saber rattling fails to rattle oil price. (9) Global oil demand growth is weakening.
Another Drop-Dead Deadline
(1) March 20 is the next one. (2) The latest Greek drama. (3) Draghi boosts confidence of German investors, and others too. (4) Lagarde seeks bigger war chest. (5) Why Baltic Dry is all wet. (6) Jobless claims confirm Double Recovery. (7) Safe haven underperforms as 2011’s losers outperform. (8) Consumer stocks approaching record highs in US. (9) Home improvements on the rise. (10) Consumer delinquencies falling. (11) Overweight Regional Banks. (12) The most important inflation story is in Chinese.
Globalization
(1) Swiss watch suggests good time. (2) Globalization is the source of global prosperity. (3) Corruption is the cause of global income inequality. (4) Exports data are best way to track globalization. (5) IT industries have lots of innovation and growth, but also lots of competition. (6) Globalization may provide enough lift to overcome global drags. (7) Upgrading Homebuilding as builders report more traffic. (8) Some IT industries to overweight and some to underweight.
One Hundred Grand
(1) Full faith and credit. (2) In more debt we trust. (3) Raising the ceiling. (4) No fiscal drag this year. (5) What about the deceleration in accelerated depreciation? (6) Second thoughts about Financials. (7) Forrest Gump and Vikram Pandit. (8) Banks becoming utilities. (9) Overweight-rated Transportation stocks are chugging along with railcar loadings and truck tonnage. (10) World Bank says prepare for the worst. Exports aren’t that gloomy.
A Double Recovery?
(1) Playing country music backwards. (2) Recessions are usually followed by one, not two recoveries. (3) Plenty of upside for autos, housing, and jobs this time. (4) The key is initial unemployment claims. (5) Consumers could lead a second recovery. (6) Less, not more fiscal drag ahead. (7) Europe could drag US, or US could boost Europe. (8) Obama’s second term. (9) A melt up scenario for stocks? (10) Lots of industries to overweight.
The Horsemen
(1) The global credit crunch scenario. (2) Unintended consequence: Might ECB’s LTRO stop bank lending? (3) Tier 1 capital is coming with tears. (4) Does stress-test survivor UniCredit need more capital than it is worth? (5) The SEC wants US banks to disclose more on their exposure to European banks. (6) Central banks aren’t done pumping liquidity. (7) China’s inflation eases a bit so PBoC can ease some more. (8) Rising tensions in Iran and Nigeria good for oil. (9) Industry analysts are relaxed. (10) Market weighting Semiconductors.
FAQs In London
(1) European tour. (2) Is the ECB laundering euros? (3) It’s a matter of trust. (4) The hype over hyperinflation. (5) Will a strong dollar dent profits? (6) Any room for improvement left in margins? (7) No bust for capital spending in 2012. (8) Seeing through the FOMC. (9) The jobless claims claim. (10) American consumers are too busy shopping to deleverage.
The IMF Scenario
(1) Analysts are no fun. (2) Widespread negativity lowers risk of negative surprises. (3) Was Q4 worse than Q3? (4) Lots of industries with record forward earnings. Many should be overweighted. (5) Still lots of new bank loans in China. (6) Chinese stocks highly correlated with commodity prices. (7) Why is the Nikkei tracking the Chinese benchmark so closely? (8) Lagarde is on guard about global growth, yet not so much about Europe.
It’s All About Allocation
(1) Save the City. (2) The Four Horsemen. (3) Exercising in the Persian Gulf. (4) Europe remains stressed. (5) The Chinese ban fun. (6) America as a safe haven. (7) US Financials should outperform European ones. (8) China’s neighbors should live long and prosper. (9) Allocation thoughts on Energy, Transportation, Retail, and Health Care. (10) Seasonal distortions in jobs data. (11) “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (+).
Looking Up
(1) Battered Investor Syndrome. (2) Bright and dark pictures. (3) A European worry list. (4) ECB’s LTRO reduces rollover risk. (5) The ECB has become Europe’s “bad bank.” That’s good. (6) No caviar for Iran. (7) Why are analysts raising their revenues estimates? (8) Stalling is still an option. (9) Bernanke’s New Homestead Plan. (10) Housing stocks have bottomed.