Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
So What’s New?
(1) Wobbling around 1400. (2) Overbought. (3) Bears wanted. (4) Goldman’s call of the mild. (5) FOMC says economy improving, maybe. (6) Are falling commodity prices bullish? (7) Continuing to underweight Europe. (8) Why do analysts expect big jump in earnings growth? (9) A happy bunch of US employment indicators. (10) Europe is falling into a recession.
Flood of Liquidity
(1) When good news is not bad. (2) Twisted Fed policy. (3) Consumers and businesses are loaded with liquidity. (4) Banks holding record $3.34 trillion in cash, Treasuries, and Agencies! (5) Do we really need more QE? (6) A classic liquidity trap? Not! (7) Monetary policy is really fiscal policy. (8) FSMI still bullish. (9) Warm weather slows railcar loadings of coal. (10) Railcar loadings of autos at cyclical high. US CALENDAR (link): Wed: Challenger, ADP 208k, NM-PMI 57.0. Thurs: Claims 360k, Bullard. (Estimates source: Bloomberg.) GLOBAL CALENDAR (link): Wed: NM-PMIs Italy 44.4, France 50.0, Germany 51.8, Euro Zone 48.7, UK 53.4, Euro Zone Retail Sales -1.1% y/y, German Orders 1.4% m/m,-5.5% y/y. Thurs: China CPI -1.1% y/y, UK Production -2.1% y/y, German Production 0.3% y/y, Canada Employment/Unemployment Rate 13.2k/7.4%. (Estimates source: DailyFX.)
Slicing & Dicing Profits
(1) Bullfighting in Spain. (2) Kohler in China. (3) Covering up the Euro Mess. (4) Stocks tend to rise in April. (5) Expectations are not great for Q1 earnings season. (6) Profits from abroad slowing along with global economy. (7) Profits growth for Financials positive, but subdued. (8) Nonfinancial domestic profits should be good. (9) Mixed picture for the sectors. (10) Expecting positive surprises among Consumer Discretionary and IT. (11) Mixed picture for global economy. (12) Services are red hot in Red China. US CALENDAR (link): Tues: Motor Vehicle Sales Total/Domestic 14.7/11.3mn, Factory Orders 1.5%. Wed: Challenger, ADP 208k, NM-PMI 57.0. (Estimates source: Bloomberg.) GLOBAL CALENDAR (link): Tues: China NM-PMI, Euro Zone PPI 3.5% y/y. Wed: NM-PMIs Italy 44.4, France 50.0, Germany 51.8, Euro Zone 48.7, UK 53.4, Euro Zone Retail Sales -1.1% y/y, German Orders 1.4% m/m,-5.5% y/y. (Estimates source: DailyFX.)
The Hunger Games
(1) Let the games begin! (2) Is the US economy’s winning streak over? (3) Bernanke is the bull’s cheerleader. (4) Record bond calendar pumping up stocks. (5) The Persian Gulf games. (6) Chinese workers unchained to buy iPads. (7) Europeans fighting not to lose. (8) After great Q1, fight or flight in Q2? (9) Do the odds favor US economy? (10) The districts continue to perform well. (11) “The Hunger Games” (+ +).
Coupling or Decoupling?
(1) Next stop after 1400? (2) Will US lift global growth, or get dragged down? (3) The “weakness dividend” puts a lid on commodity prices. (4) Calming oil market’s jitters. (5) Go Home vs. Go Global. (6) Energy and Materials stocks diverging with commodity prices this year. (7) S&P 500 revenues still looking up. (8) Are durable goods orders durable? (9) Housing is crawling out of the cellar. (10) Do Industrials have more upside?
Cliffhangers
(1) Sun-Tzu tells bulls to stay close to bears. (2) Blinder’s fiscal cliff. (3) Simpson-Bowles lite? (4) How lame will the lame ducks be? (5) Lots of popular loopholes. (6) Ryan’s Express on slow track unless Supremes kill ObamaCare. (7) When will stocks discount the cliff scenario? (8) Consumer stocks climbing every mountain. (9) Tech stocks still cheap. (10) The employment cliffhanger.
ZIRP No Matter What
(1) Paradise found. (2) An impressive 6-month bull market within an impressive 3-year bull market. (3) Bernanke bad-mouths good employment indicators. Stocks cheer. (4) And the winners are: Consumer Discretionary, Financials, & IT. (5) Revenue estimates continue to rise. (6) P/E-led rally has more upside. (7) PEG ratios find value in Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and IT. Overvalued are Consumer Staples, Health Care, Telecom, and Utilities. (8) Bernanke explains unemployment. (9) Another happy employment indicator in the regions.
Wobbling
(1) Professor Bernanke explains it all. (2) Lessons learned from the 1930s. (3) Making new mistakes. (4) ZIRP no matter what. (5) Fizzle fears for a third year. (6) Two of the stool’s three legs are wobbling. (7) Spain’s pain. (8) A power struggle in China? (9) Spring break or spring wobble? (10) Underweighting Europe. (11) The global economy is slowing, not stalling.
Revenues
(1) Coup rumors in China. (2) A messy leadership transition. (3) China is slowing, not contracting. (4) From bottom-up to top-down revenues. (5) The revenue winners are Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and IT. (6) Revenues looking toppy for Energy & Materials. (7) Financials may have hit rock bottom for revenues. (8) Housing-related stocks suggest depression is ending for this industry.
Spring Fever
(1) Will the economy wilt this summer? (2) Blooming indicators. (3) Initial claims, consumer comfort, high yield spread all look very good. (4) Is the ECRI leading or misleading? (5) Blinder sees fiscal cliff ahead. (6) Our FSMI rises to cyclical high. (7) Global oil demand flattening as supply hits record high. (8) Big rebound in Libyan output more than offsets Iran’s cutback. (9) Overweighting S&P 500 Integrated Oil & Gas.
Cognitive Dissonance
(1) When Prophecy Fails. (2) Festinger’s theory. (3) The Fed President’s speech. (4) The Fed’s troika. (5) A Goldman-style forecast from the FRBNY. (6) Is the weather really distorting economic reality? (7) Is it odd that stocks are rising along with oil and gasoline prices? (8) Are industry analysts too optimistic about earnings, or not? (9) Reality vs. perception about inflation. (10) The China price is rising at a faster pace.
Hot Air?
(1) The questionable recovery question. (2) Will April be the cruelest month? (3) Unseasonable weather distorting economic data? (4) Counting on pent-up demand. (5) Three risks. (6) Inflation is lurking in Asian labor costs and in US TIPS. (7) The yield curve is untwisting. (8) Risk-On, for a while longer. (9) Impressive resilience in global manufacturing. (10) Weekly consumer confidence rising faster than pump price.
Spring Break
(1) The dreaded wedge formation. (2) Prechter and Granville are bearish. (3) The crash in volume and volatility. (4) Joe’s bullish reports. (5) What is it about March 6? (6) 2012 isn’t likely to replay 2010 and 2011. (7) Seasonal adjustments and distortions. (8) Strength of retail sales not just weather related. (9) Retailers are outperforming.
Better and Worse
(1) A hint of better earnings. (2) Puzzling stall in federal income tax receipts. (3) Tax receipts covering just 65 cents of each dollar of outlays. (4) The US Treasury continues to set records in recklessness. (5) Richard Fisher says Mexico beats US on fiscal discipline. (6) Neither boom nor bust for trade. (7) What’s up and down in China? (8) Europe’s exports are down. (9) Global production indicators are mixed. (10) There is still gas in the tank for Transportation stocks.
Lunacy
(1) The brain and moonshine. (2) New moon, new market top? (3) This is not a game. (4) The man from Mossad. (5) Greeks default to borrow more. (6) The French are turning French again. (7) Lots of big impressive employment numbers. (8) Market was unimpressed.
Monetary Morphine
(1) Will the Fed ease again no matter what? (2) Is housing the third mandate? (3) Twist and shout. (4) Fisher attacks the junkies and their pushers. (5) A cruise on the QEs. (6) The Fed’s new drug. (7) Labor costs are going up. (8) Consumers are releveraging. (9) Germany orders are volatile. (10) Can profit margins rise above 2011’s?
The Growth Question
(1) Growth scare. (2) Fortune cookie says, “Deliver more than promised.” (3) Fewer young workers. (4) Wen means well. (5) China will change gradually, not abruptly. (6) Europe’s growth recession. (7) The decoupling question. (8) US wins. (9) Global PMI was just fine in February. (10) Eight troublesome issues. (11) IT is It: It’s relatively cheap, to the market and to its strong earnings.
Tulips and Land Mines
(1) Green shoots and weeds. (2) Leading from behind. (3) Speculators are soaked with oil. (4) Socialism in France. (5) Another Trojan Horse. (6) Spain declares its independence. (7) Slower fast growth in China. (8) Growth recession in Europe. (9) Analysts still trimming earnings. (10) Purchasing managers upbeat on employment. (11) Overweighting Biotech, Health Care Distributors, and Managed Health Care.
Monster’s Ball
(1) Farewell party. (2) A famous cover story about corporate job killers. (3) Jubilant job indicators for the nation and in many regions. (4) Party poopers and punch bowls. (5) Early warnings from Transports and SmallCaps? (6) Overweighting IT. (7) Another good week ahead for consumer stocks? (8) Jobs should boost incomes. (9) Global PMIs are mixed. (10) “In Darkness” (+ +).
Jolt
(1) Kicking the can of Jolt. (2) High octane headlines. (3) Supreme Leader says sanctions are a pain. (4) Is Little Kim ready to play ball? (5) Running out of collateral. (6) Regional surveys show big job gains. (7) Bond bulls could be seeing red soon. (8) Trojan Horse could still morph into a Black Swan. (9) Back-to-back gains are bullish. (10) No jolt in earnings ahead. (11) Employment could jump start GDP growth.
Combat Fatigue
(1) Tug of war. (2) Shrinking volume. (3) LTRO boosted bank bond buying. (4) The pain in Spain. (5) From soft patch to hard patch with quite a few potholes. (6) To bomb (the bomb) or not to bomb? That is the question. (7) SPR is debatable. (8) FSMI is climbing. (9) Is a hiring panic coming? (10) Not so durable recovery in durables? (11) Confidence rising in global economy. (12) Still overweighting Industrials.
Megiddo
(1) The city under the hill. (2) The final battle between good and evil. (3) The man from Mossad. (4) Clueless intelligence. (5) Iran is becoming the number one issue for Obama. (6) ECB offers one more round of liquidity. (7) Damaged collateral. (8) Analysts still curbing their enthusiasm. (9) Real estate brokers turning more enthusiastic. (10) Will high pump prices slam the brakes on home improvements?
Gas Pain
(1) Another oil price shock? (2) More saber rattling in the Persian Gulf. (3) The Iranians are concentrating. (4) The Pentagon is getting ready. (5) Supply, demand, and inventory factors driving oil prices higher. (6) Geithner thinking about tapping SPR. (7) Still overweighting Energy. (8) Taking some risk off the table. (9) Downgrading EMs and Consumer Discretionary to market weight. (10) The world isn’t as consumed with oil as in the past. (11) “I would like to thank the Academy.”
Bullish Valuation Drivers
(1) Higher or lower? (2) Volatility and volume worry some technicians. (3) No upside in earnings for now. (4) Plenty of good news to drive valuation higher. (5) Renovating houses. (6) More upside than downside in recent global business indicators. (7) BoE and PBoC pumping liquidity. (8) Obama’s tax reform. (9) Schapiro’s shocker. (10) One very cold atom. (11) A tax theory for falling margins. (12) Global oil demand doesn’t support high crude oil price. (13) Still overweighting Energy.
Oil Wells That End Well
(1) Worrying about a repeat of 2011. (2) Iran’s oil exports are small and getting smaller. (3) US oil rig count is rising fast. (4) New tech revives old wells. (5) No end to Greek drama as critics see a third act ahead for bailout. (6) So why are European bank stocks up big? (7) S&P 500 up 100%. (8) Oil prices boosting global inflation same as early last year.