Beige Book Monitor

Nine of twelve districts reported slight-to-moderate growth; three reported no significant change. Manufacturing remains the primary growth engine; consumer-facing sectors are broadly flat to slightly negative. Marginally softer than September's ten growing districts.

Deteriorated further from September — Kansas City reported a modest decline, Minneapolis and Boston slight declines, and Cleveland stabilized at flat after four consecutive declines. Consumer stress is broadening from lower-income to middle-income households across multiple districts.

Remained a clear bright spot — Dallas accelerated sharply, Cleveland and Philadelphia reported moderate growth, and six additional districts reported modest-to-moderate gains. Data center, defense, and energy demand continue to drive broad-based manufacturing strength.

Little changed from September — five districts reported slight increases, three modest increases, and four no change. AI adoption is now explicitly dampening new job creation in five districts. Low-hire, low-fire environment persists; skilled trades remain scarce.

Modest-to-moderate wage growth persisted across most districts, consistent with September. Five districts reported moderate growth, four modest growth, two slight growth. No acceleration nationally; cost-of-living pressures are generating upward wage demands but not yet broad acceleration.

Accelerated versus September — four districts explicitly reported a faster pace of price increases, three districts now characterize growth as robust, and contract/hedge expirations are broadening pass-through. Diesel and fuel costs are the dominant driver cascading through all supply chains.

Mixed nationally — residential real estate softened in Boston, San Francisco, and St. Louis as rising mortgage rates weighed on sales. Nonresidential activity held up, concentrated in data center construction. Affordability and rate lock-in remain structural constraints on housing.

Broadly unchanged from September — loan volumes held steady or grew modestly in most districts, but Dallas and San Francisco reported slight easing. Credit standards tightened in several districts; delinquencies edged higher. Rising long-term rates are emerging as a new concern.

Slight-to-modest growth broadly, consistent with September. Dallas and Kansas City services eased; Chicago nonbusiness contacts saw no change. Health care, professional services, and transportation were relative bright spots. Consumer-facing services under margin pressure from fuel costs.

Cautiously positive but burdened by persistent uncertainty — most districts expect slight growth, weighted toward manufacturing. Energy prices, tariffs, Middle East conflict, and upcoming contract renewals are the dominant concerns. No district turned clearly pessimistic, but no district upgraded to optimistic.