Beige Book Monitor

Ten of twelve districts reported slight-to-moderate growth; two reported no change. A marginal step down from July's eleven growing districts, with softening undercurrents in consumer-facing sectors offset by manufacturing strength.

Weakened on balance versus July — multiple districts reported declines or softening. Fuel-price sensitivity, trading-down behavior, and fading World Cup tailwinds weighed broadly. High-end spending remained resilient; lower- and middle-income stress deepened.

Picked up across most districts, with data center and defense demand as primary drivers. Philadelphia surged to strong growth; Cleveland and Dallas reported robust and moderate gains respectively. Supply chain strains emerged in tech and defense sectors.

Employment rose very slightly overall — a step down from July's improvement. Five districts reported no change, three modest gains, four slight gains. Low-hire, low-fire environment persists; skilled trades and technical workers remain scarce.

Modest-to-moderate wage growth persisted across most districts, consistent with July. Significant increases concentrated in skilled construction and manufacturing roles. No acceleration nationally; some districts noted easing wage pressure.

Pace held steady — eight districts reported moderate increases, same as July. Input cost pressures remain elevated universally but pass-through to selling prices is increasingly constrained by consumer price sensitivity, widening margin compression.

Mixed nationally — residential construction declined while nonresidential increased, concentrated in data center projects. Affordability, elevated mortgage rates, and limited inventory continued to constrain housing markets broadly.

Financial conditions improved slightly with loan volumes solid or increasing in most districts. Credit standards tightened slightly in some markets. Consumer loan quality continued to tick down; delinquencies rising in several districts.

Slight-to-modest increases reported broadly, a step down from July's green signal. Dallas slowed in nonfinancial services; San Francisco eased slightly; education sector declined sharply in New York. Health care and professional services remained positive.

Cautiously positive but more mixed than July — service firms in Kansas City turned notably more pessimistic, Boston became more pessimistic on balance, and uncertainty around energy prices and geopolitical risk remained the dominant concern across districts.