Beige Book Monitor

Eight districts reported slight-to-modest growth, two flat, two declining — same count as March but with softer underlying composition and more wait-and-see postures.

Slight increase on balance nationally, but high fuel prices, lower-income strain, and cautious sentiment are weighing on discretionary categories. Bifurcation between income cohorts persists.

Mixed nationally — modest gains in several districts offset by slowing in Dallas and flat readings in New York and Richmond. Energy cost pressures and Middle East uncertainty are constraining outlooks.

Employment steady to slightly up in most districts. Minneapolis reversed prior decline. Hiring remains cautious — replacement-only strategies dominate. No significant layoffs reported nationally.

Modest-to-moderate wage growth persisted across all districts, consistent with March. Health care and skilled trades remain the tightest pockets. No acceleration or deceleration nationally.

Energy shock compounded existing tariff pressures — input cost acceleration is now universal across all twelve districts. Selling price growth lags input costs, compressing margins. Inflation picture has worsened from March.

Residential markets softened further in most districts as rising mortgage rates and uncertainty dampened buyer demand. Commercial real estate improved, led by data centers and industrial. Net picture remains negative.

Broadly stable with modest loan demand growth in several districts. Commercial lending remains the primary strength. Consumer credit quality showing early stress signals in a few districts.

Mixed nationally — professional services and transportation showed modest gains while leisure, hospitality, and business services softened in several districts. New York services contracted moderately.

Outlook deteriorated from March's cautious optimism. Chicago expects no change; Dallas and New York outlooks worsened. Most districts remain cautious rather than pessimistic, but uncertainty citations are at cycle highs.