Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
On Aluminum, P/Es & Semis
The Iran war has tightened the market for aluminum, driving up prices and benefitting US producers. Jackie looks at the market dynamics and what Alcoa execs had to say about the unexpected demand they’re seeing. … Alcoa is also building a gallium plant for the US, Australian, and Japanese governments to ensure ample supplies of the metal used in electronics and produced mostly by China. … Also: Some S&P 500 sectors and industries have enjoyed rising valuations over the past year; we list some of the biggest winners. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment, three announcements could dramatically alter demand and supply in the semiconductor industry.
On Private Credit, Brazil, And Earnings
The private-credit market is inherently illiquid. Recently, it has needed to gate redemptions, making investors who want access to their funds wait. Vocal retail investors have reporters questioning whether this could trigger a 2008-style financial crisis. That’s not happening, Melissa explains. But she outlines two contagion-transmission paths that bear watching during these uncertain times. … Also: William takes us to Brazil, where the uncertain outcome of a close presidential race will keep investors in limbo for months. Meanwhile, prioritizing Brazilian stocks over bonds might be wise. … And: Joe expects S&P 500 companies’ collective Q1 earnings growth to beat even the 14% analysts project.
Taiwan: Great Business, Bad Location
Taiwan’s economy could be collateral damage in the Iran war, reports William. The US’s geopolitical ambitions might embolden China to make good on its pledge to bring Taiwan back under its wing, especially if President Trump doesn’t offer the island nation continued US support—as well he might not. The prospect of TSMC under Chinese control holds apocalyptic economic implications since that one company makes most of the world’s advanced semiconductors. But Taiwanese ETFs are rallying all the same. Is the market right that China won’t risk its own GDP growth by invading Taiwan? … Also: Toby examines Taiwan’s rapidly growing but precariously undiversified economy, overly dependent on tech exports.
Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally
The unprecedented oil-supply shock caused by war in the Middle East has crushed investors’ former expectations for subdued inflation and dovish central banks’ actions. The Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide, especially at the short end, in some economies more than others. Today, Dr Ed and our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog analyze what global yield-curve spreads imply about investors’ new expectations, opining that the front end of the US curve may be oversold. … Also: The three stages of a negative oil-supply shock. The US economy is still in Stage 1, anticipating a more hawkish Fed and a bear-flattening of the yield curve. But where it goes next depends on the course of the war.
On Helium Inflation, Oil-Price Disparities & Robot Evolution
Helium prices have inflated after one of the world’s largest helium producers, in Qatar, halted production for the duration of the war. Jackie examines the new helium market dynamics and discusses the ramifications for helium-dependent industries (like semiconductors) and countries as well as for US helium producers. … Also: While the Iran war has jacked up oil prices everywhere, different oil-price benchmarks have been affected differently. … And: Robots are becoming more humanlike by the day. We look at Unitree’s upcoming IPO, Amazon’s acquisitions, and McDonald’s temporary robots.
On Private Equity, Africa’s Latest Crisis, And S&P 500’s Excellent Earnings
Private equity sponsors are having difficulty selling portfolio companies and returning distributions to investors. Melissa explores the signs that the private equity market may struggle in 2026 and why the window of opportunity investors enjoyed back in 2021 has closed. … Also: William examines the impacts of the Iran war on troubled African nations, which have fielded crisis after crisis so far this decade. … And: Only Joe has positive news for us today, and it’s great! The typical end-of-quarter estimate cutting isn’t happening as the Q1 finish line nears—estimates have been soaring instead, despite the oil-price shock.
China’s K-Shaped Economy & AI Ambitions
China’s annual GDP growth goal is set at a low level that still might not be attainable, William reports. China has a two-speed economy: Exports are growing like gangbusters, while domestic growth is languishing. Insecure consumers, collectively gripping $22 trillion in savings, won’t spend more freely without greater social safety nets—which are notably absent from President Xi’s AI-focused economic plan. And the impacts of war may jeopardize even China’s powerful export growth engine. … Also: Investors are dubious that China’s massive AI investments will bear the promised profits. And something’s inherently off with China’s AI ambitions in the first place: How can AI creativity flourish amid ideological clamps on the free cross-border flow of information?
From Powell To Warsh
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Powell, no doubt will lean toward dovish policy-making, under pressure from the President to convince the rest of the FOMC to err on the side of easing. But the timing of Warsh’s confirmation is uncertain. Today, Dr Ed along with our new contributing editor Elias Griepentrog take us on a thought experiment: Under three alternative scenarios for the length of the Iran war, they project the economic impacts and associated ramifications for monetary policy under Warsh’s leadership versus that of Powell. … Also: They share eight takeaways from the FOMC’s March meeting. ... And Dr Ed reviews “The Secret Agent” (- – -).
On Retailers, Earnings & High-Tech Weapons
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector has been battling a trifecta of challenges, and only a couple of its industry indexes have escaped ytd declines. Jackie distills what the managements of several affected companies had to say on recent earnings calls about the impacts of oil prices, inflation, and tariffs. … Also: Joe reports that the downward earnings estimate revisions that analysts typically make as quarters progress haven’t been as disappointing as usual during Q1. … And: New weaponry technology leverages light and sound to destroy targets, shoot down drones, clear an area of people, and incapacitate enemies.
On Private Credit & EVs
Retail investors have initiated a run on alternative asset funds focused on the private credit market. Their confidence in the asset class is shot. Melissa discusses three weaknesses in the retail segment of this market—endemic fraud, poor underwriting, and structural valuation opacity. She also provides reasons that these problems don’t represent systemic risk but should remain contained; the same goes for defaults by software company borrowers. … Also: William discusses Chinese electric vehicle makers’ domestic market challenges as well as the problems that have caused Honda to downsize its EV operations.
The Impacts Of The War On Europe & India
For Europe, the energy supply shock resulting from the war in Iran makes a deteriorating industrial production outlook even worse. William reports that the risk to output may even be greater than what Europe endured in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. … Also: Even before the war, the Indian economy faced formidable challenges, dimming the outlook for the rupee, Asia’s worst-performing currency last year. Yet the ruling party was confident that 2026 would be the year it finally made headway on needed economic reforms. Now surging oil prices are exacerbating the economy’s challenges and upending the government’s plans.
Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears?
The energy and financial markets are taking the war in the Middle East remarkably well, all things considered. Investors seem to believe that the war will be short-lived and perhaps are focusing on the bright side: The lost physical supplies of oil are maybe half as much as they could have been, partly because Iran is still allowing tankers from friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Dr Ed reviews the current state of affairs, concluding that the blockade of the Strait might not be as dire a development as widely feared, including by us. … Also: Dr Ed reviews “Fukushima: A Nuclear Nightmare” (+ + +).
On Fertilizer, Stablecoins & Rising Earnings
The Iran war puts US farmers in dire straits, as it has been spiking the cost of fertilizer. But the war has been a boon for the stocks of domestic fertilizer companies. Jackie discusses the war impacts on both farmers and the fertilizer companies that supply them. … Also: The debate rages on over whether cryptocurrency companies should be allowed to pay rewards on stable coins. Banks cry “foul!,” claiming that rewards are essentially interest and should be disallowed. President Trump disagrees. … And: Joe reports that if early indications are a guide, 2026 may be an atypical year of rising estimates for S&P 500 companies.
On AI & Jobs And The War & Emerging Markets
Executive Summary: While the headlines have stoked fears about AI-related layoffs, Melissa reports that there are also less-heralded job openings arising from Boomer retirements and the creation of new AI-related positions. White-collar workers may need retraining, and entry-level workers may have to send out even more resumes to land that first job, but ultimately, the economy should continue to add jobs, just more slowly. … The jump in energy prices due to the war in Iran has hurt economies and currencies across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. William examines the war’s impact on emerging market countries far and wide.
On Iran, Central Banks, South Korea, & AI
The Middle East war is throwing central banks around the world for a loop as they try to chart monetary policy paths for their economies amid new stagflation and supply-chain risks. William examines what the war might mean for the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ, and the PBOC. … Also: The war sent Korea’s Kopsi index on its biggest plunge ever, as the Korean economy is extremely reliant on oil imports and vulnerable to surging oil prices. There’s risk that the geopolitical chaos will squelch investors’ AI enthusiasm. Might Korea be a canary in the AI coalmine?
Between Iran & A Hard Place
With the US suddenly thick in the fog of war, Dr Ed discusses the collateral effects on the US economy and stock market. Spiking oil prices may precipitate a stock market correction rather than a bear market, but the latter is possible. The Roaring 2020s remains Dr Ed’s base-case outlook for the rest of this year with subjective odds unchanged at 60%. But there’s now much less chance of a Meltup (with odds of just 5%) and greater odds of a Meltdown (35%). For the rest of the decade, he sees either a continuation of the Roaring 2020s (85%) or a new scenario, the Stagflating 1970s Redux (15%). If investors start expecting stagflation, a bear market is more likely. Markets should stabilize once the Strait of Hormuz reopens to safe navigation. … Also: Dr Ed reviews “Dead Man’s Wire” (+).
On Iran’s Chaos Strategy, Owl’s Woes & Laser Guns
Last weekend’s attack on Iran by the US and Israel has unleashed a vengeance that’s disrupting global energy commerce. Iran has bombed nearby countries’ oil and gas production facilities and threatened to burn ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Major oil companies are shutting down facilities. Amid the chaos, energy prices and stocks have soared. Jackie reports on the news and the stock market’s reactions. … Also: A look at a private credit investment firm with good results but poor share price performance. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus: With Israel’s new Iron Beam laser self-defense system, intercepting an incoming rocket or drone can cost less than a cup of coffee.
On The Fed & AI, Italy’s Growth & Q4 Earnings
FOMC officials agree: AI proliferation is a seismic macroeconomic force that will impact GDP growth, inflation, and the labor market. But they’re divided on the precise impacts and timing. Today, Melissa reads between the lines of Fed officials’ public statements concerning AI to tease out the implications for monetary policy. Paradoxically, the reasoning of both the AI bulls and the AI bears implies holding the federal funds rate right where it is. … Also: Italy’s economy is on a roll. William discusses why, drawing comparisons to Japan’s economy. … And: Joe’s data on the Q4 earnings of S&P 500 companies suggest record-high earnings and broad-based strength across sectors.
On China’s Challenges & Global Debt
China is on the losing end of President Trump’s foreign policy moves in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland—all strategically important to China’s economy. How President Xi responds over the next few weeks will be critical to his legacy. William discusses the ten top challenges Team Xi must confront at the government’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting this week. … Also: A look at the record-high global debt—what’s driving it and the ramifications.
Another Regime Alteration
Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is potentially a positive development from economic and investment perspectives, greatly reducing geopolitical risk in the Middle East once the war ends. If oil prices drop in the coming weeks following a ceasefire, US inflation and gasoline prices will decline, boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies and stock markets. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario. ... Also: Dr Ed reviews “Mercy” (+).
On AI & Jobs, Trump & Markets, & The Newest Semiconductors
Projections of a collapse in consumer spending as Americans lose jobs to AI en masse spooked the stock market recently—but perhaps unnecessarily. Jackie explains why that catastrophic scenario may be unlikely. … Also: A look at how various S&P 500 sectors are affected by President Trump’s policies. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: Not long ago, Nvidia had the AI chip market cornered; soon, new competitors with impressive advanced AI chip offerings may back Nvidia into a corner.
On Australia’s Inflation, US Manufacturing, And S&P 500 Earnings
The Reserve Bank of Australia has been raising interest rates, with more hikes likely to come, to battle the highest rate of inflation among developed countries. William looks at the source of the problem and its global ramifications. … Also: Melissa examines the state of US manufacturing. Can the recent pickup be sustained? Will foreign nations’ pledges to manufacture in the US dry up now with the threat of country-specific tariffs off the table? … And Joe shares historical data on estimate revisions for S&P 500 companies that bode well for analysts’ earnings expectations this year.
‘Resilient’ Still Best Describes The US Economy
The US economy has performed remarkably well this decade to date despite multiple unusual challenges that would have felled a less resilient economy. Widespread recession expectations failed to pan out repeatedly. The pattern continues, with today’s recession alarmists likewise bound to be wrong for reasons that Dr Ed explains. … Also: A look under the hood of recent GDP data. Capital spending has been robust, with more than 50% of the capital spending in nominal GDP reflecting booming investments in technology. Consumer spending is strong despite flattening disposable income, reflecting spending that’s not reliant on income—i.e., by well-heeled retired Baby Boomers.
The Impacts Of Tariff Liberation Day II On Asia & Canada
Asian economies that would have been hard-pressed to thrive under President Trump’s tariffs can celebrate the Supreme Court’s ruling that they’re unconstitutional. While that’s a net positive for these and other affected nations, William explains, tariff-related uncertainties remain. Sector-specific tariffs, versus country-specific ones, are permissible under the ruling, and Team Trump has a Plan B. … Also: Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney faces difficult challenges given Trump’s desire to renegotiate the trade agreement that shields Canada from US tariffs and Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” ambitions to assert US primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
On Mag-7, Microsoft & Dancing Robots
They may be magnificent, but they’re not invincible. The Mag-7 has been beaten down into correction territory, but the group still wields outsized influence over stock-market performance by virtue of its still huge market-cap share. Jackie examines the valuation carnage and whether it seems warranted relative to earnings prospects. … Also: A look at embattled Microsoft as it fends off competitive attacks from multiple directions. … And: China’s humanoid robots strutted their stuff on a televised celebration of the Chinese New Year. Their awesome performances suggest robotics competitors have their work cut out for them.