Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Risk Aversion Again
(1) Elections upend Euro Mess cleanup efforts. (2) Debt and fiscal cliffs. (3) Earnings-led bear market or another P/E-led correction? (4) Can Europe survive a fall? (5) The “endgame” scenario is back. (6) Bank runs. (7) Another lame G8 communique. (8) The euro zone’s day of infamy. (9) “Pay me so I can pay you, or else!” (10) Better to use Greece’s bailout euros to recapitalize distressed banks. (11) Same survey shows strength in NY-Fed’s district, weakness in Philly-Fed district. (12) “Dark Shadows” (+).
Macroeconomists & Superheroes
(1) Confessions of a recovering macroeconomist. (2) A limited education. (3) PhD in meddling. (4) Mario Draghi as Thor. (5) Has LTRO lost its superpower already? (6) The ECB’s Deep Throats. (7) Ben Bernanke as Captain America. (8) How did “The Great Moderation” work out for you? (9) The case for recessions. (10) Monetary policy can’t clean up the Euro Mess or fix the fiscal cliff. (11) Hollande and the Grexit. (12) Krugman has all the answers. (13) Sweden’s real superheroes. (14) US economy performing remarkably well despite Washington’s meddling.
The Greek Question
(1) The Oracle of Grexit. (2) Is Greece the same as Lehman? (3) Moving more to the left. (4) Merkollande prepared to study. (5) Grexit would be “messy,” and might cost €1trillion. (6) Bank run in Greece. (7) Our new Global Growth Barometer is currently bearish. So is FSMI. (8) Can S&P 500 revenues continue to grow around 5%? (9) Industry analysts too optimistic. (10) Will global growth stay positive? (11) Retailers have had a great run.
Fully Invested Bears
(1) Lots of bearish headlines in this bull market. (2) Don’t fight the central banks. (3) The bulls are flinching again. (4) The end of the road for kicking the Greek's can. (5) Would a “Grexit” be a catharsis? (6) US cruising toward fiscal cliff? (7) Republican trifecta scenario. (8) Dr. Copper is worried about China. (9) JP Morgan’s big loss. (10) A hedge fund disguised as a hedge? (11) Moody’s is chopping lots of banks. (12) Brent for $100?
Sweet & Sour
(1) Central bankers making smoothies. (2) A spoonful of sugar. (3) A bad aftertaste. (4) A sweet batch of US indicators. (5) PBoC acts fast to pump up credit. (6) Wunderbar: Germans rejecting austerity, accepting higher inflation risk! (7) Japanese lawmakers stacking the BoJ’s easy money deck. (8) Global economic slowdown taking some air out of stocks and commodities. (9) Still staying home for now. (10) “The Avengers” (-).
Risk Aversion Again
(1) Elections upend Euro Mess cleanup efforts. (2) Debt and fiscal cliffs. (3) Earnings-led bear market or another P/E-led correction? (4) Can Europe survive a fall? (5) The “endgame” scenario is back. (6) Bank runs. (7) Another lame G8 communique. (8) The euro zone’s day of infamy. (9) “Pay me so I can pay you, or else!” (10) Better to use Greece’s bailout euros to recapitalize distressed banks. (11) Same survey shows strength in NY-Fed’s district, weakness in Philly-Fed district. (12) “Dark Shadows” (+).
Neverland
(1) Peter Pan and socialism. (2) What do the Greeks want? (3) Angela Merkel as Wendy. (4) From full to half Monti. (5) Late payments. (6) Wishing to grow without growing up. (7) Gold is a hedge, a commodity, and a currency.
Failing States
(1) Europe’s socialist wonderland. (2) Austerity vs. sanity. (3) The bill comes due. (4) Anarchy-loving fringe groups gaining support. (5) A disunion of failed states. (6) Prometheus played with fire and got burnt. (7) What do China, Russia, and the US have in common? (8) Pluses and minuses of globalization. (9) Failing governments vs. profiting companies. (10) Our FSMI is risk averse. (11) More jobs in JOLTS report than in payroll survey. (12) Market weighting Financials for now.
What’s Driving the Bull?
(1) The bull gets no respect. (2) It’s still a V-shaped earnings rebound, especially for SMidCaps. (3) S&P 500 forward earnings at record high of $110. (4) Q1 beat leads to slight Q2-Q4 retreat. (5) Rising labor costs overseas bad for margins, good for revenues. (6) Germany losing customers in euro area, but finding others elsewhere. (7) Will Consumer Discretionary continue to lead the bull? (8) The message in consumer credit.
Some Bad & Good News
(1) Payrolls are weak, while labor market indicators are mixed. (2) Less firing. More hiring. (3) Deconstructing the seasonal distortion. (4) Blaming Washington if job gains don’t rebound. (5) Are falling oil prices good news or bad? (6) No shortage of oil. (7) Sanctions could squeeze Iran into submission. (8) Israel’s debating society. (9) From Merkozy to Merlande? (10) “Chaos” is a Greek word. (11) Idling in neutral on US stocks for now. (12) Still bearish on European bourses.
Dead Calm?
(1) Headwinds, tailwinds, and calms. (2) More bad news. Less panic. (3) Europe’s recession deepens. (4) Smooth sailing for revenues and earnings. (5) Volume is sinking. (6) Industrial commodities, transportation stocks, and bank stocks are dead in the water. (7) The calm before the next storm out of Europe? (8) Fiscal cliffs. (9) Employment compass pointing north and south.
Tailwinds vs. Headwinds
(1) The answer is blowing in the wind. (2) April data should be less seasonally distorted. (3) Another strong employment indicator. (4) Purchasing managers are a happy lot these days in the US. (5) Construction remains in the storm cellar. (6) China’s purchasing managers are also upbeat. (7) Winners and losers in China’s neighborhood. (8) Lots of reasons to sell, but are they good ones?
What Is the US Economy Doing?
(1) Slowly, but surely. (2) From green shoots to weeds, double dips, and stall speed. (3) Boom-to-bust sectors still busted. (4) Regional business surveys are down on orders, but up on employment. (5) Consumers are consuming. (6) Fewer panic attacks. (7) May is just another month like all the rest. (8) Republican Trifecta or Fiscal Cliff? (9) The pattern in earnings estimates. (10) China's PMI puzzle. (11) Market weighting Consumer Staples.
Prosperity vs. Austerity
(1) Fiscal Pact vs. Growth Pact. (2) Europe’s Party Party. (3) Only way to grow Europe isn’t under discussion. (4) LTRO-3 is coming, and it will be a Ponzi scheme. (5) Read her lips. (6) Globalization driving the bull market in earnings and stock prices. (7) Brinks and Apple. (8) Plenty of new record highs in the S&P 500. (9) Staying sector-neutral, on a tactical basis, for now. (10) US economy’s boomto-bust sectors still down and out.
Go With the Flow
(1) So crude? (2) Doing a world of good. (3) Oil prices sagging despite supply disruptions. (4) All it takes is reversing the flow in a pipeline. (5) Narrowing the spread between Brent and WTI. (6) Firing up some refineries. (7) Hard to be bearish with so many expecting a correction and all the positive earnings surprises. (8) Technology is bearing fruit. (9) Industrials have earnings momentum. (10) Austerity is falling out of fashion in Europe. (11) Moving the goal line in Europe. (12) The Fed’s latest forecast and next meeting.
Progress Report
(1) Jobs are more available. (2) Another batch of strong regional job surveys. (3) Canadian snowbirds and American landlords are buying houses. (4) Multi-family housing construction rebounding, while single-family remains depressed. (5) Home prices still down and out. (6) The stock market and leading indicators. (7) Forward earnings at new record high. (8) The profit margin story.
Dutch Treat
(1) Europe needs supply-side economics... (2) … and to hire Luca Brasi to collect taxes. (3) Dutch boy has a solution. (4) Austerity is losing elections and toppling governments. (5) No vote of confidence in European stock and bond markets. (6) Nudging up our earnings forecasts. (7) Net earnings revisions improving, especially for Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and IT. (8) Euro area industrial orders take a turn for the worse led by Italy and Spain.
Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
(1) Triple-E: Earnings, Economy, and Europe. (2) The case for remaining bullish. (3) Earnings are impressive. (4) The US economy is OK on average. (5) Europe isn’t OK, but IMF members pledge more bailout cash. (6) The other shoe is made in China. (7) Neutral for now, but next stock rally should favor Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, and IT, with Energy and Materials lagging behind. (8) Canada’s condo mania. (9) Europe's PMI. (10) Opting for optimism on US economy.
Different Views
(1) Lots of economists and views at the IMF. (2) Can there be more growth ahead if there is more financial instability? (3) Banks facing capital shortfalls will need to sell assets. (4) Guess who might be the buyer of last resort. (5) Hollande sauce. (6) From auction to auction. (7) Worth watching European bank stocks to see what they are worth. (8) Anxiety in Cleveland. (9) On balance, earnings season is a happy distraction so far. (10) When central bankers start to worry about inflation, expect another easing move.
Bonjour
(1) The wrong monsieur for the season? (2) Sarkozy, Hollande, and Trotsky. (3) The Socialist’s speech. (4) Everyone likes QE better than austerity. (5) A small bill auction goes well in Spain. The next test is a bond auction on Thursday. (6) French banks are deep in PIIGS. (7) ECB’s Operation Twisted. (8) Great vs. not-so-great expectations for earnings. (9) Sentiment is bearish, which is bullish. (10) Globalization hard to catch in earnings models. (11) IMF nudges up global growth. (12) IT stocks should meander along with rest of market before a summer rally.
America’s Consummate Consumers
(1) The US is still the greatest show on earth. (2) This year won’t be 2010 and 2011 if US economy performs well. (3) Consumer Discretionary leading bull market’s shopping spree. (4) Earnings driving consumer cyclical stocks. (5) Retailers are getting a bit pricey. (6) S&P 500 revenues have fully recovered. (7) Consuming is more fun than retrenching and deleveraging. (8) Lots of pent-up demand. (9) Slicing and dicing retail sales and Retailing earnings and valuation.
Here We Go Again?
(1) Buying time and running out of it. (2) Pass the sangria. (3) Four plausible scenarios for stocks. (4) In the first, Europe has a meltdown, the US falls off a fiscal cliff, and Iran gets bombed. (5) In the second, central banks pour more Kool Aid. (6) In the third, the US shines. (7) In the fourth, sangria makes everything better. (8) Asset allocation: Going sector-neutral in US. Still underweighting European stocks, especially banks. (9) So what is the US economy doing? (10) Globalization for bulls.
In Government We Trust
(1) The Governor’s speech. (2) Politicians want to be loved. (3) Couch potatoes with benefits. (4) The Founders floundered on balancing the budget. (5) The Fed’s fiscal policy. (6) Starve Grandma. Feed Goldman. (7) Why are so many workers disabled? (8) Individual income tax receipts are lagging. (9) Global economy is growing. (10) Lots of yuan in China. (11) Worldwide chip sales are down. (12) Still market weighting Semiconductors.
Déjà Vu All Over Again?
(1) Yogi Berra again. (2) The US is in better shape. (3) China has lots of customers outside of Europe. (4) Spain is this year’s pain. (5) The Bond Vigilantes are touring Europe. (6) The Euro Mess is trashing stocks again. (7) Our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator at new cyclical high. (8) Dr. Copper sees slower growth in China. (9) Still underweighting Europe. (10) US is a safe haven for global stock investors.
A Positive Spin
(1) Employment looks good, on average. (2) Full-time employment soaring! (3) The weight of the employment evidence is upbeat. (4) What should we be rooting for: QE3 or jobs? (5) Goldilocks on ice. (6) The déjà vu scenario for 2012. (7) Central banks are running out of ammo and into inflation flak. (8) What if the Republicans take it all? (9) Is little guidance bullish or bearish?