Interactive Tool
FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
The Committee executed a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, resolving July's three-way dissent in favor of tightening and signaling that the majority view has now fully aligned with the hawks — with inflation still 'elevated,' no easing language, and an unconditional price stability pledge, this is an active tightening cycle with no end in sight.
Dovish
The Committee paused its tightening cycle with a hold at 3.75–4.00%, but two hawkish dissents demanding an immediate 25bp hike signal that the tightening bias remains firmly intact — with inflation still 'elevated' and no easing language whatsoever, this is a hawkish pause, not a pivot, and further hikes remain a live risk.
| September 16, 2026 | Factor | October 28, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
A 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% marks the first rate increase in this cycle's current phase, directly validating the hawkish dissents from July and escalating the restrictive policy stance. Active Tightening | Rate Action | The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00% after September's hike, pausing the active tightening cycle but not reversing it — a neutral action in isolation but hawkish in context. Hawkish Pause |
A unanimous 12-0 vote in favor of the hike is a powerful hawkish signal — the entire Committee, including previously neutral members, has coalesced around tightening with no dovish dissents. Unanimous Hawkish Consensus | Vote Unity | A 10-2 vote with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike is a strong hawkish signal, indicating a meaningful minority of the Committee believes current policy is still insufficiently restrictive. Hawkish Dissents |
There is zero easing language or forward guidance toward cuts; the statement contains no dovish pivot signals and the unconditional 'deliver price stability' pledge sets an extremely high bar for any future easing. No Easing Signal | Future Cuts | There is no easing language, no forward guidance toward cuts, and no dovish pivot signals anywhere in the statement — the bar for any future easing remains extremely high. No Easing Signal |
With a unanimous hike just delivered and inflation still characterized as 'elevated,' additional rate increases remain a live and credible near-term risk with no language ruling out further tightening. Further Hikes Credible | Hike Risk | Two explicit dissents in favor of an immediate hike, combined with 'inflation remains elevated' language and no ruling-out of further tightening, keeps additional rate increases a credible near-term risk. Hike Risk Elevated |
Inflation is described simply as 'elevated' with today's hike explicitly framed as supporting a 'timelier return' to the 2% goal — language implying the Committee believes current policy was previously insufficient. Persistently Elevated | Inflation View | Inflation is characterized simply as 'elevated' with the Committee reiterating its unconditional 'deliver price stability' pledge, signaling no satisfaction with the current inflation trajectory. Persistently Elevated |
The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, providing no incremental easing offset to the rate hike. Neutral Continuity | Balance Sheet | The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, providing no incremental easing offset to the hold decision. Neutral Continuity |