Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Saber Rattling
(1) The Panetta Ultimatum. (2) New Year’s Eve sanctions are working already. (3) Down and out in Tehran. (4) Turmoil in Nigeria and Kazakhstan. (5) Overweight Energy. (6) Analysts are curbing their enthusiasm. (7) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator on upswing. (8) Too many bulls? (9) Upgrading Financials. Remaining neutral on Materials. Still overweighting Transports. (10) Manufacturing showing some resilience in US, Germany, and China. (11) Net Earnings Revisions remained negative in December.
The Old and New Years
(1) Three years of living dangerously. (2) Thinking ahead to 2013. (3) The ECB hurls the can down the road. (4) More help wanted in the US. (5) Chinese will deliver more monetary stimulus and low-income housing this year. (6) Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. (7) Wailing baby confirms our 1450-1550 prediction for the S&P 500 by the end of 2012. (8) Some reasons to overweight the US, China, and Energy. (9) US consumers have the will to spend, but will they have the means in 2012? (10) A mixed bag of global leading economic indicators. (11) “The Artist” (+ + +).
Global Warning
(1) The Year of Living Dangerously. (2) Lots to worry about for 2012. (3) Good news at home vs. bad abroad. (4) Running out of options. (5) Christine Lagarde is raising money by raising the alarm. (6) Thumbs down for latest Grand Plan. (7) December 20: A Day of Liquidity. (8) Farrell and Hoisington see more trouble ahead. (9) The Fed is worried too. (10) America remains a safe haven. (11) Now overweighting Health Care, especially Pharma and Managed Care. (12) Energy as a hedge against turmoil. (13) US production indicators strong on balance. (14) There’s more inflation than deflation around the world.
Fear Factor
(1) The real enemy of the people. (2) The silent majority: “We are the 64%!” (3) The loud 99% crowd represents 26%, at most. (4) Two Osawatomie speeches. (5) Obama’s New Nationalism is out of sync. (6) Occupy Washington. (7) $10,000 bet. (8) What are Professors Copper and Gold predicting for 2012? (9) The beginning of the Endgame? (10) A mixed picture for the global economy.
The Year Ahead
(1) The consensus sees lots of muddling along in 2012. (2) The consensus agrees that Europe is the biggest risk. (3) 2011 wasn’t 2008, but there is always next year. (4) The contrary scenario is a global boom with no recession in Europe. (5) Will the Middle East simmer or boil? (6) The Gridlock problem. (7) Checks and Balances requires a Balanced Budget Amendment. (8) A trillion here and there. (9) Payroll tax cuts killing PayGo. (10) Retail sales adding up to strong Q4 GDP. (11) Still market weighting Retailers.
Europe’s Carry Trade
(1) The Man from TARP. (2) Nice yield spread for banks. (3) No more haircuts. (4) The capital constraint is an issue. (5) Thumbs down from the rating agencies. (6) French cuisine will always be AAA. (7) European banks are stressed. (8) More volatility next year? (9) Analysts lower 2012 earnings growth from 15% to 10%. (10) More disappointments ahead for earnings. (11) Surprising Oktoberfest for German orders. (12) Still market weighting IT.
Sarkozy’s Moment
(1) Euro: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” (2) Must there be an endgame? (3) Yearend rally still on track. (4) US indicators remain upbeat. (5) China is stimulating as inflation drops and growth slows. (6) Latest Grand Plan creates an IMF liquidity facility. (7) Sarkozy says banks should borrow from ECB at 1.00% and lend to governments at 5.00%. (8) A fiscal compact made in Germany. (9) Time to get cyclical and buy some banks too? (10) Global trade showing some weakness. (11) Strength and weakness in global trade. (12) Overweighting Transportation stocks again.
Twilight Zone
(1) Kepler-22B: Home away from home. (2) A surreal world. (3) Osawatomie, Kansas. (4) Running against the banks. (5) Preparing a smorgasbord for the ECB. (6) Strict Maastricht rules violated. (7) S&P 500 revenues have been bullish since early 2009. (8) In 2012, flat would be a good outcome for sales and earnings. (9) Consumers aren’t charging as much.
Day of Infamy or D-Day?
(1) We were warned. (2) Draghi’s battle plan. (3) V-E Day is a long way off. (4) Wolf isn’t crying wolf. (5) Industrial commodity index on the edge. (6) BRIC wall. (7) Americans ignoring Europeans. (8) Market weighting Autos.
Resilient Forward Earnings
(1) The recession memo. (2) Forward earnings moving higher again. (3) Employment gains suggest that smaller companies are especially profitable. (4) Last gasp before keeling over? (5) Is the US stock market a safe haven? (6) Mixed picture for Industrials. (7) Decoupling less likely as a result of globalization. (8) Nevertheless, US economy’s resilience is impressive. (9) Europe’s PMIs point to recession. (10) China’s PMIs are sweet and sour. (11) Brazil’s economy is no longer doing the samba.
Make or Break
(1) Decembers are bullish, especially after down Novembers. (2) Fourth time’s the charm? (3) There’s always Grand Plan 5.0. (4) Dream and nightmare scenarios. (5) The solution is a Global Liquidity Facility, one way or another. (6) Euro Mess isn’t the only issue. (7) Will Newt depress Barack and lift P/Es? (8) Employment’s Birthers. (9) Upward revisions are among the good news in jobs report. (10) “My Week with Marilyn” (+ +).
The Magnificent Seven
(1) Yul and Ben. (2) The Magnificent Six. (3) China and Brazil are easing too. (4) Will the remake have a happier ending than the original? (5) One victory lap for the GLF. (6) Breaking News: The Magnificent One is ready to ease. (7) A primer on central bank liquidity swaps. (8) Cut and they will come. (9) December 9: Another infamous day? (10) Yearend rally on track. (11) Small businesses are leading the employment recovery.
Distressed Banks
(1) The masters of OPM. (2) Banks are pro-cyclical. (3) Great during good times, but terrible during bad times. (4) The S&P’s new model says some banks are riskier. (5) Latest stress test will give Fed more power over big banks. (6) European banks in severe funding squeeze. (7) Bank earnings boosted by fewer losses rather than lending gains. (8) T-minus 10 days and counting for euro. (9) Buy on the planning. Sell on the plan. (10) Home sales have hit bottom, while home prices have not.
National Income Shares
(1) A remarkable rebound in profits. (2) Wages and salaries account for less than half of National Income. (3) Tax-free benefits and deficit-financed entitlements boost personal incomes. (4) Record S&P 500 earnings during Q3, yet Q4 estimates are down. (5) Expectations for 2012 remain optimistic, perhaps too much so. (6) Europe’s credit crunch is going global. (7) OECD cuts its forecasts for global growth. We may do so too. (8) That’s not good news for global capital spending. (9) Still neutral on S&P 500 Industrials sector.
Grand Plan 4.0
(1) The Queen of the Bond Vigilantes. (2) It’s time to hurl the can down the road. (3) Merkozy offer Draghi’s ECB a couvrez-votre-derriere plan. (4) Bond Vigilantes want bailout, or else! (5) Not much time left for a yearend rally. (6) Europe falling into recession. Will it drag the world down too? (7) New orders take a dive in Europe. (8) Fed stresses that its stressful scenario for banks isn’t a forecast. (9) US continues to grow. (10) “The Descendants” (+ +).
Thanks!
(1) A good day ahead. (2) Good fortune. (3) Teaching the Greeks a lesson. (4) Two cheers for profits. (5) Taking sides in Muddle vs. Meltdown debate. (6) Net Earnings Revisions Indexes have turned negative. (7) NERI and M-PMI tend to stick together. (8) No thanks to European banks. (9) Will we be thanking Ben a year from now? (10) The good news is underground. (11) Still overweighting Energy in a muddling way.
Credit Insurance Fraud Industry
(1) The bezzle started in Basel. (2) Blankfein’s belated insight. (3) Converting trash to gold. (4) The euro was a blind pool. (5) The Vigilantes weren’t vigilant. (6) Euro Mess could turn into AIG-2.0. (7) The EFSF is a CDO-Squared. (8) CDS: An insurance policy that may not pay. (9) Fed ready to act if ECB won’t. (10) What will the ECB do without the EMU? (11) It’s binary: Meltdown or Muddle. (12) US strength stands out as global economy weakens.
Binary Outcomes
(1) The Mayan calendar is either very bullish or very bearish. (2) Internal debates put S&P 500 somewhere between 666 and 1565. (3) More “Nein, nein, nein.” (4) Will ECB cave before Bond Vigilantes push Europe over the cliff? (5) Mr. Bofinger, I presume. (6) Is the ECB really prohibited from doing QE? (7) World Central Bank to the rescue? (8) Europe is a drag on global production. (9) China’s central bankers respond to easing chatter: “Not so fast.”
Striking It Rich
(1) Jed Clampett in Philadelphia. (2) Employment is booming in US oil and gas fields. (3) Italian bonds in the morning. (4) Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes. (5) Lost in translation: Dr. Copper in China. (6) Government subsidizes unemployment and gets more of it. (7) Retail sales remarkably resilient. (8) Analysts raising 2012 earnings estimates for many merchants. (9) Still market weighting Retailers.
Leverage Cuts Both Ways
(1) Banks are like a box of chocolates. (2) US banks are less leveraged, but still exposed. (3) Analysts still cutting their 2012 estimates for Financials. (4) Delinquencies edge higher. (5) Rising risk of strategic defaults by rich folks. (6) The “shadow” over home prices. (7) FHA is stressed, while Fannie and Freddie continue to need federal handouts. (8) There’s risk abroad too. (9) Do banks matter? (10) Still underweighting Financials.
Easing Does It
(1) Other than for some volatility, the S&P 500 has been flat so far this year. (2) Fed officials willing to do more QE, while ECB remains reluctant. (3) Ben Bernanke’s excellent late night adventure at Fort Bliss. (4) Old Testament economics. (5) The Fed’s marching orders. (6) Will Super Marios stabilize Italy? (7) Taking the foot off the brakes in China. (8) Buy a pad in Wenzhou and get a free Bimmer. (9) Sector performance ytd. (10) Euro-Mess weighing on global trade. (11) Market weighting Transportation. (12) “J. Edgar” (+ + +).
Margin Call
(1) Europe’s contagion hits Italy. (2) Ciao, Berlusconi. (3) Bond Vigilantes are the new barbarians at the gates of Rome. (4) Europe’s Grand Plan: A case study in unintended consequences. (5) Lenders of last resort are supposed to rescue banks, not governments. (6) From democracy to technocracy. (7) Greeks don’t do unity very well. (8) No dissenters at the Fed. (9) European outlook weighing on S&P 500 earnings. (10) Does Europe matter more than Japan? (11) Market weighting IT.
Grand Plans
(1) Two more leaders on the way out in Europe. (2) Three very flawed Grand Plans. (3) Can debtors guarantee their own debt so they can borrow more? (4) “Voluntary” haircuts in Greece push rates up in Italy. (5) China’s top investor says Europeans are just too lazy. (6) Will the super-committee deadlock by its deadline? (7) An important vote in an important swing state. (8) Some very welcome news out of China. (9) The Bull/Bear Ratio remains close to 1.0, which is bullish. (10) Small business owners are still unhappy, but hiring anyway.
Liquidity & Asteroids
(1) Close calls in outer and inner space. (2) Cosmic collisions and man-made cataclysms. (3) Will the flood of liquidity avert a second meltdown? (4) Global Liquidity Supply up 20% y/y. (5) Export driver. (6) Americans are awash in cash. (7) The big deleveraging story is about US banks. (8) Americans are swiping less. (9) Great earnings for all seasons, but winter is coming. (10) A mixed bag of global indicators.
Never Mind
(1) Mario, George, Brian, and Gilda. (2) ECB returns to Planet Earth. (3) Drahgi says Europe heading toward recession. (4) ECB bound by Lisbon Treaty in spirit, not in practice. (5) The Greeks are acting up again. (6) Wearing flip flops at Bank of America. (7) Stocks are cheap, and volatility creates opportunities to buy them cheaper. (8) Decoupling thesis gets stress tested again. (9) Payroll revisions confirm economy is on the right track. (10) Monster Employment Index points to more hiring ahead. (11) Did Jon Corzine intend to follow script of “Margin Call” (+ +)?