Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Zuccotti Park
(1) A walk in the park. (2) Breakfast for radicals. (3) Bernanke fully sympathizes. (4) QE-3.0 is coming to provide more occupations for occupiers. (5) No more protestors on the FOMC. (6) The Declaration of the Occupation. (7) Anarchy beats working for a living. (8) Analysts are fretting about tomorrow. (9) Profitable companies create jobs, not the Fed.
Catharsis
(1) Papandreou shocks Merkozy and the markets. (2) It’s all Greek to me: Catharsis, Democracy, Chaos, and Apocalypse. (3) IMF can’t pay next tranche. (4) Pass the ouzo! (5) “Pain” is derived from a Latin word. (6) Waiting on Mario and Ben. (7) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator moving sideways. (8) Bull/Bear Ratio edges up to 1.17. (9) Purchasing managers are depressed in Europe. (10) US auto sales lack zip. (11) Market weighting auto-related stocks.
Trick or Treat?
(1) Markets continue to zig and zag along with Europe. (2) Meet Mario Draghi, the man from Goldman. (3) An MF Global Moment. (4) Q3 earnings season has been a treat. (5) The next few quarters could be tricky for earnings. (6) October’s valuation-led rally could take a break in November. (7) The Greeks are living in Hellas. (8) Chinese aren’t buying into Europe’s Grand Illusion. (9) US consumer spending seems to be running on fumes rather than gas.
Halloween Stories
(1) The Merkozy story. (2) Waiting for Super Mario to ease and buy more bonds. (3) The ECB’s stealth QE. (4) Worthless insurance. (5) Breaking the kneecaps of credit raters. (6) Europeans give Greeks a Trojan horse. (7) The four horsemen of the apocalypse ride out of town. (8) Easy does it at ECB, Fed, and PBoC. (9) Copper and China lead Risk-On trade. (10) US soft patch is less soft despite fiscal drag.
Homecoming Scenario
(1) Muddling along is as good as it gets. (2) The latest consensus in Greenwich and Boston. (3) The best is yet to come in the USA. (4) A heart-warming interview with the head of the UAW. (5) Manufacturing is still booming in the US, especially for capital goods industries. (6) Europeans pull an all-nighter. (7) The Grand Plan isn’t so grand, but we’ll take it. (8) Home alone: Homestead Act hits a brick wall.
Here Comes QE-20!
(1) More Shock and Yawn from EU leaders. (2) Missing deadlines. (3) Can debtors insure their own debt? (4) Will Mario say, “Yes, we can!” (5) Germans say “Nein,” we can’t! (6) Crazy policy week ahead. (7) Sweet and sour earnings. (8) Everyone is depressed. (9) Is China putting up a white flag on inflation? (10) The Fed’s dueling dual mandate.
Reindustrializing America
(1) America is a bargain. (2) Blue, red, and black states. (3) Youngstown, Ohio is making a comeback. (4) Fracking for fun and profit. (5) Land rush. (6) Homecoming for manufacturing. (7) Will France’s AAA get fried? (8) The most bullish Grand Plans are the ones that have few details and are in perpetual discussions. (9) Dudley joins the QE-3.0 pack. (10) Despite uptick in Q3 earnings, analysts still cutting Q4 and 2012 estimates. (11) NERIs losing momentum in Earnings Month.
Bungee Jumping
(1) Fed’s mad monetary policy experiments. (2) Fed setting the stage for a third round of QE. (3) Yellen admits Operation Twist might be a mistake but wants QE-3.0, though QE-2.0 backfired. (4) Fed’s goal is higher stock prices again. (5) Where is this going? (6) A firmer soft patch. (7) Europeans are in a panic. Is that bullish or bearish? (8) Earnings yet to reflect soft patch. (9) Valuations may have more upside. (10) Staying mostly sector neutral during volatile times. (11) Good news out of Asia, while global leading indicators have a negative tilt. (12) “Mozart’s Sister” (+).
Chinese Puzzle
(1) The picture isn’t pretty. (2) Workers of China, unite! (3) Stepping on the monetary brakes in China. (4) Harvest of Shame. (5) Shortage of lowincome housing and glut of high-end units in ghost cities. (6) More pregnant thoughts on how to deliver a solution to the euro zone crisis. (7) Earnings season off to a good start, but earnings and revenue estimates still falling for 2012. (8) Lots of oil demand in New World. (9) Getting old in Old World. (10) Still overweighting Energy.
High Frequency Policymaking
(1) Explaining volatility. (2) Shock and Awe vs. Awe Shucks. (3) Manic depressive disorder caused by erratic policymaking. (4) To curb or not to curb enthusiasm? (5) Did the French leak the €2 trillion story? (6) A plan to convert the EFSF into AIG. (7) Before there were HFTs, there were market makers. (8) So far, earnings season is bullish despite fluffed up bank results. (9) Bull/Bear Ratio below 1.0 for a sixth week in a row. That’s bullish too, for now. (10) Global production stronger than suggested by M-PMIs.
Grand Plan or Grand Illusion?
(1) DOA. (2) Mr. Nein says not so fast. (3) The chancellor’s man says stop dreaming. (4) Grand Plan won’t be grand for France’s AAA. (5) Ackermann has a fit. (6) Cheap Financials (our least favorite sector) getting cheaper after reporting fluffy earnings. (7) Bernanke wants to be FDR. (8) Not a great start to the earnings season compared to past 10 seasons. (9) World trade data are mixed with more soft patch than boom or bust. (10) China’s exports to EU and US slowing. (11) Market weighting Transportation.
Smooth Sailing?
(1) From Perfect Storm to Perfect Run. (2) The bull goes from seasick to sea legs. (3) Despite big rally, sentiment remains bearish, which is bullish, for now. (4) October bottoms sometimes make for yearend rallies. (5) Double-dip fears melt away. (6) Scrambled Europeans are scrambling. (7) “Whatever it takes.” (8) Why are corporate tax receipts so weak? (9) Stocks are cheap. (10) On course for 1320 by yearend? (11) Risk On is on and risky. (12) When the going gets tough, Americans go shopping. (13) No double dip, according to outperforming Retailers.
S&P 500 and the Blue Angels
(1) Cleveland and Toronto. (2) Valuation is worth talking about. (3) Less angst about earnings. (4) Questions Europeans need to answer posthaste. (5) Stocks must be rallying on expectations of massive European monetization. (6) Meet the Blue Angels: Constant valuation forward earnings. (7) Stunt plane flying in vapor trails. (8) The recent history of P/E dives. (9) More upside later than sooner. (10) The European problem won’t go away so fast.
Shovel Ready Yet?
(1) So shovel it already! (2) ARRA-Lite goes to pieces. (3) More infrastructure on the campaign trail than on the roads. (4) LOL at President’s jobs council. (5) Public construction spending going downhill since record high during March 2009! (6) $317,000 per ARRA/QE-2.0 job. (7) QE-2.0 backfired. (8) Our Don Quixote. (9) Valuation’s relationship with bond yield goes rogue. (10) FSMI in a flat line. (11) Bull/Bear Ratio still under 1.0 (12) Small business owners still have the will to live and do some hiring.
Is It Safe?
(1) A day with no European pains is a good day. (2) The losers are winners again. (3) Drilling deeper to avoid root canal surgery. (4) When sentiment is really bad, it doesn’t take much good news to start a rally. (5) US better. Europe still bad. (6) Will France, Germany, or the EFSF get downgraded first? (7) An AIG Moment. (8) Stress tests could crack European banks. (9) Let the earnings season begin. (10) Will US feel Europe’s pain? (11) Europe is in a growth recession.
Scared Straight?
(1) Halloween ahead of schedule. (2) A glimpse of a bullish scenario. (3) More liquidity from ECB and quantitative easing from BOE. (4) Angela and Nicolas meet again and again. (5) Details under discussion again and again. (6) Recapitalization won’t recapitalize banks for long. (7) Dexia: Europe’s first TARP. (8) Yearend rally or more volatility? (9) Five US industries with good news. (10) A railcar named Desire. (11) “The Ides of March” (+).
Vox Populi
(1) What’s on their minds? (2) Lots of muddlers. (3) Less worried about US economy. (4) A messy cleanup of the Euro-Mess. (5) Instability in China. (6) If earnings are $100, valuations are cheap. (7) Obama’s passing moment. (8) The Fed has left the building. (9) A long soft patch. (10) Clouds in the silver lining.
Ship of Fools
(1) Break dancing. (2) Working on an “orderly default” plan. (3) Clueless passengers on a sinking ship. (4) Was that a bottom or a hook? (5) Emergency meetings are bullish until further notice. (6) After second rescue, Dexia is now just a “bad bank.” (7) Is all that really reassuring? (8) Bull/Bear Ratio under 1.0 for a fourth week. (9) Real GDP should be up during H2 despite alarmist leading indicator. (10) Autorelated stocks should outperform when the bull starts charging again.
Raising Cain
(1) Presidents and their father complexes. (2) Cain’s 9-9-9 plan is good. Simpson-Bowles is better. (3) Bad breaks in global stock markets. (4) Revisiting the lows of 2009? (5) Analysts continue to shave their earnings estimates. (6) Is the soft patch history or the future? (7) Policymakers lost their groove.
Oktoberfest or Octoberbust?
(1) Beer drinkers of the world, unite! (2) October is the month for big crashes, every now and then. (3) Sometimes, Octobers make a bottom. (4) The Greeks tend to fudge. (5) Even if earnings don’t disappoint, guidance likely will do so. (6) Analysts are turning more cautious on 2012, especially for Financials. (7) “BE AFRAID.” (8) Sentiment is so bearish, it may be bullish. (9) China is still hot, though less spicy. (10) Is Dr. Copper wrong? (11) Is the S&P 500 the next safe haven to get trashed? (12) Weekly Leading Indicator predicts an imminent recession. Is it misleading?
Pandora’s Box
(1) The Greeks invented mythology. (2) Hubris can end tragically. (3) German parliament approves plan that may need to be renegotiated! (4) Copper is setting a bad example for stocks. (5) More downside now, then more upside later. (6) Labor market jitters. (7) Durable goods orders remarkably durable. (8) The Cloud. (9) Market weighting IT.
Haircuts
(1) The Europeans are all over the map. (2) From 21% to 50% haircuts. (3) German bestseller: “Rescue Plan for Dummkopfs.” (4) Gold bulls tripped by the Twist? (5) Are governments running out of reckless policies? (6) Bull/Bear Ratio still below 1.0 as correction camp gets clipped. (7) Nothing to fear but higher unemployment. (8) Manufacturing weak in three Fed districts. (9) Another wave of foreclosures set to flood housing. (10) Who turned the lights out? (11) Market weighting Health Care.
The Speed of Light
(1) Neutrinos arrive a few nanoseconds ahead of schedule. (2) HFTs distorting the laws of physics. (3) SEC needs to bring back Uptick Rule. (4) Corruption is weighing on stocks. (5) ARRA: A big waste of money. (6) The White House shouldn’t venture into venture capital. (7) Contributing cronies. (8) Change investors can believe in. (9) Meet Andreas Vosskuhle, the euro slayer. (10) Leveraging EFSF is unconstitutional. (11) Financials set to report bad news during earnings season. (12) Still underweighting Financials.
Lame Duck Spotting
(1) Stock prices rising in thin air. (2) Reassuring words after reassuring conference call. (3) French banks downgraded, as expected. (4) Geithner tells Cramer no risk of European Lehman after predicting no downgrade for US. (5) Fresh signs of trouble in Austria. (6) Upset in Queens for our king. (7) Rampant bearishness lifts stocks. (8) Earnings, revenue, and margin estimates all declining. (9) Q3 GDP: consumer spending up a tad, while inventories down a bit. (10) High-income folks aren’t happy. (11) Market weighting Retailers.
Rocky Mountain High
(1) Dizzy in Deer Valley. Level-headed in Chicago. (2) Eleven million Greeks owe over $300 billion. (3) Company contacts say business is fine. (4) The valuation question. (5) Government policies are counterproductive rather than countercyclical. (6) What we see is what we get, for a while. (7) Tranche to tranche warfare in Europe. (8) Using tax receipts as business cycle indicators. (9) No soft patch or double dip in individual tax receipts. (10) Sharp drop in growth of corporate profits tax receipts suggests industry analysts too optimistic about Q3 and Q4.