Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Birds. Volcker Rule. Weakest Link
(1) Black Swans in Boston, Beijing, and Washington. (2) White House goes populist, turns on Wall Street. (3) Barney Frank is in no rush. (4) Darling doesn't love Volcker Rule. (5) BRIC man says Chinese should revalue. (6) GDP and earnings in America. (7) A Vshaped recovery among global LEIs. (8) Vs and Us among G6 forward earnings. (9) Housing is still the weakest link. (10) “Sherlock Holmes” (-). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Is Inflation heating up?
(1) China is bigger than Massachusetts. (2) The Chinese exit drill. (3) Government stimulus tends to be counter-cyclical in China too. (4) China is red hot. (5) Preempting an imaginary problem? (6) Globally, inflation has a few hot spots. (7) OECD inflation remains subdued. (8) Still lots of slack in US resource utilization. (9) The Phillips Curve has a disinflationary bent. (10) Unemployment, wages, and rent. (11) Overweight Health Care. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Political Upset
(1) Mudslides and landslides. (2) The Brown seat. (3) Healthy for health stocks. (4) Will the Democrats go nuclear? (5) How Obama lost his groove. (6) Black Swans in Boston and Beijing. (7) The Chinese start implementing anti-bubble policies. (8) Oil demand continues to plunge in aging Old World, and soar in emerging New World. (9) Lots of energy left in MidCap Energy. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Rooting for Gridlock
(1) FCIC’s show trial. (2) The truth is out there. (3) Kennedy’s seat. (4) A bullish scenario for health care. (5) Advisors are bullish on stocks, while the public is not. (6) Reading the electric meters around the world. (7) A big normal inventory “pop” for GDP. (8) More structural unemployment than in the past? (9) Extended benefits are extending joblessness. (10) Consumers take less credit, and are saving more. (11) Retailers defy consumer retrenchment pundits. (12) “Up in the Air” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Economic Bill of Rights
(1) We are all Socialists now. (2) FDR: the Founding Father of the Entitlement State. (3) You are entitled to a good job, good food, nice house, and adequate health care. (4) Ayn Rand’s scathing critique. (5) FDR won the debate. (6) Social Welfare in America. (7) A beige report on the economy. (8) No recovery in Federal tax revenues. (9) Small business owners remain depressed. (10) Is the stock market fairly valued? (11) Growth vs. Value PEGs.
The Warning
(1) Meet Brooksley Born. (2) Meet the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. (3) The attack of the Three Marketeers. (4) Phil Gramm’s law banned regulation of credit derivatives. (5) Profile in Courage. (6) Einhorn says CDSs should be banned. (7) China, Alcoa, and taxes. (8) Unlike Fed, PBoC acts to preempt bubble trouble. (9) FSMI is bullish. (10) Transportation stocks are bullish on economy.
The Dollar, Gold, and China
(1) Crashing currency candidates. (2) Sovereign debt concerns unsettle EPY currencies. (3) The best of the mutts. (4) Gold should continue to beat DEPY currencies. (5) More upside for New World currencies? (6) The good and the bad for the dollar. (7) IMF reserves data show dollar losing share. (8) China, China, China! (9) Autos, steel, and exports in China. (10) Should stock investors root for a weak or strong dollar in 2010? (11) Materials should continue to outperform in 2010.
From Left to Right
(1) Washington spending billions to create thousands of jobs. (2) Electorate turning more conservative as Washington turns more liberal. (3) Medicare’s chief actuary warns about unintended consequences. (4) Go get ‘em Harry, or just go? (5) Gridlock would be bullish. (6) Get ready for 7%+ real GDP. (7) Was bad weather to blame for December’s bad jobs report? (8) Firings are down, but jobless spells are lasting longer. (9) Waiting for earnings. (10) Lots of Vs and record highs in Earnings Month. (11) Job insecurity hits central bankers. (12) “Broken Embraces” (- -).
Fannie, Freddie, Feddie, and Rocky
(1) The Christmas Eve Conspiracy. (2) Will the Fed really stop buying mortgages? (3) Trashing the Constitution. (4) The Comeback Economy: “Yo, how you doin'?” (5) Asians follow Americans and Europeans toward free trade. (6) China taps on the brakes, while European consumer spending stalls. (7) Show time for emerging stock markets, especially in Latin America. (8) Make or break time for the euro, pound, and yen.
The Wealth Effect. Earnings. Housing
(1) Positive wealth effects in stock and bond markets. (2) Housing remains a submerged market. (3) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator flashing green. (4) Congressional dropouts handing victory to Gridlock. (5) More confidence in earnings estimates. (6) S&P 500’s earnings fundamentals are on the up side. (7) Profit margin has been remarkably resilient. (8) Tobin’s Q explains why existing home sales are hotter than new ones. (9) Don't rush to Homebuilders, though Home Improvement Retailers may benefit from fixing up fixer-uppers.
Back to Business. A Big Conspiracy
(1) New Year for Naysayers: Koo, Krugman, Evans-Pritchard. (2) Balancesheet recession. (3) 1937: Back to the future. (4) Japan as Weimar. (5) The coming crash in the euro. (6) Growth is the cure. (7) Why did Fannie and Freddie get such big Christmas presents? (8) The Geithner-Bernanke plot to nationalize the mortgage market. (9) Will growth fizzle after the inventory pop? (10) Profits are the cure, and they are making a big comeback.
New Year for the Bond Vigilantes
(1) Ben Bernanke: Person of the Year in 2009. (2) The Time curse. (3) Will the Bond Vigilantes be the Persons of the Year in 2010? (4) Fannie and Freddie have been nationalized. (5) Harry Reid double counts. (6) Japan’s Fuji of debt. (7) Gary Ackerman, my Man of the Year. (8) Another bullish earnings season ahead. (9) Health care plan is unconstitutional. (10) Leading indicators are V-shaped, while coincident ones are L-ish. (11) Good for profit margins. (12) Less firing, but longer spells of unemployment. (13) “Avatar” (++).
Banks. Homes. Inflation. Earnings. Energy
(1) Obama leans on bankers to lend. (2) Clinton and Bush leaned on bankers to lend. (3) “We are on the precipice.” (4) Must reading: Sowell’s book on the housing debacle. (5) The Fed’s ZIRP is a mistake. (6) Resource Utilization Rate remains depressed. (7) Update on sector forward earnings. (8) Oil demand falling in Old World, rising in New World. (9) Energy still has energy.
China's Fat Cats
(1) US Treasuries: Mainland Chinese on a buyer’s strike. (2) The dollar is best of dodgy breed. (3) Europe has the shakes, after the sheiks default. (4) The Bond Vigilantes are stirring. (5) Can stocks and commodities rally if the dollar strengthens? (6) Joe analyzes S&P 500 profit margins. (7) The world is bipolar! (8) Industrials continue to produce better fundamentals.
Fat Cats. Earnings. China. Trade. Transports
(1) Obama blames the bankers. (2) They can’t find creditworthy borrowers. (3) Blame the bank examiners. (4) Professor Robert Langdon, I presume. (5) Suggested cures for Battered Investor Syndrome. (6) Charting China. (7) FedEx is flying. (8) So is the Transportation index.
Old vs. New Normal
(1) Kansas vs. Oz. (2) A V-shaped recovery in earnings, and real GDP too, oh my! (3) New Q4 real GDP forecast: 6.4%, oh my! (4) The Old Normal: 2009 looks like 1982 for initial unemployment claims. (5) Continuing claims support the New Normal scenario. (6) The Wizard of Oz is very bullish. (7) Is the stock market's lost decade a launching pad for the coming decade? (8) Inventories could really boost Q4 GDP. (9) Follow the yellow brick road. (10) China’s M2 continues to sizzle. (11) More jobs and better retail sales may be somewhere over the rainbow. (12) Retail stocks are bullish on outlook for consumer spending.
The Profits Cycle
(1) Contrarian’s scenario. (2) Could the S&P climb to 1565.19 in 2010? (3) Profit margin held up remarkably well this time. (4) Plenty of room for improvement, on the margin. (5) Profits vs. bubble cycles. (6) Battered Investor Syndrome. (7) Crackberries for the masses. (8) IT for fun and profit.
Tyranny of the Technocrats
(1) Power grab by the EPA. (2) Suicide is painless. (3) Three of a kind: Wilson, Carter, & Obama. (4) Meet Lisa Jackson. (5) The oil/gas ratio is narrowing. (6) Why weren’t small businesses invited to Jobs Summit? (7) December’s NFIB survey remained down and out. (8) One job opening for every six unemployed. (9) Growth vs. Value. (10) Health Care is very cheap.
Inverse Relationships
(1) Was Friday’s employment report a major inflection point for gold, the dollar, and stocks? (2) Ben Bernanke and Rahm Emanuel. (3) New EPA ruling could choke the economy. (4) Global growth, not weak dollar, driving commodity prices higher. (5) How does the dollar impact profits? (6) From P/E-led to E-led bull market. (7) Best in breed among Materials: Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals.
Normalcy
(1) Above average decline in jobless claims. (2) Revisions could show an uptick in November’s jobs. (3) Washington spending lots of money to create a few jobs. (4) Temporary jobs are better than no jobs. (5) Cash for Caulkers. (6) Did jobless rate peak in October? (7) Productivity on steroids. (8) From Ugly Duckling to Black Swan. (9) Bunning throws heat at Greenspan and Bernanke. (10) Macroeconomists are the problem rather than the solution. (11) “The Messenger” (++).