Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
New Year for the Bond Vigilantes
(1) Ben Bernanke: Person of the Year in 2009. (2) The Time curse. (3) Will the Bond Vigilantes be the Persons of the Year in 2010? (4) Fannie and Freddie have been nationalized. (5) Harry Reid double counts. (6) Japan’s Fuji of debt. (7) Gary Ackerman, my Man of the Year. (8) Another bullish earnings season ahead. (9) Health care plan is unconstitutional. (10) Leading indicators are V-shaped, while coincident ones are L-ish. (11) Good for profit margins. (12) Less firing, but longer spells of unemployment. (13) “Avatar” (++).
Banks. Homes. Inflation. Earnings. Energy
(1) Obama leans on bankers to lend. (2) Clinton and Bush leaned on bankers to lend. (3) “We are on the precipice.” (4) Must reading: Sowell’s book on the housing debacle. (5) The Fed’s ZIRP is a mistake. (6) Resource Utilization Rate remains depressed. (7) Update on sector forward earnings. (8) Oil demand falling in Old World, rising in New World. (9) Energy still has energy.
China's Fat Cats
(1) US Treasuries: Mainland Chinese on a buyer’s strike. (2) The dollar is best of dodgy breed. (3) Europe has the shakes, after the sheiks default. (4) The Bond Vigilantes are stirring. (5) Can stocks and commodities rally if the dollar strengthens? (6) Joe analyzes S&P 500 profit margins. (7) The world is bipolar! (8) Industrials continue to produce better fundamentals.
Fat Cats. Earnings. China. Trade. Transports
(1) Obama blames the bankers. (2) They can’t find creditworthy borrowers. (3) Blame the bank examiners. (4) Professor Robert Langdon, I presume. (5) Suggested cures for Battered Investor Syndrome. (6) Charting China. (7) FedEx is flying. (8) So is the Transportation index.
Old vs. New Normal
(1) Kansas vs. Oz. (2) A V-shaped recovery in earnings, and real GDP too, oh my! (3) New Q4 real GDP forecast: 6.4%, oh my! (4) The Old Normal: 2009 looks like 1982 for initial unemployment claims. (5) Continuing claims support the New Normal scenario. (6) The Wizard of Oz is very bullish. (7) Is the stock market's lost decade a launching pad for the coming decade? (8) Inventories could really boost Q4 GDP. (9) Follow the yellow brick road. (10) China’s M2 continues to sizzle. (11) More jobs and better retail sales may be somewhere over the rainbow. (12) Retail stocks are bullish on outlook for consumer spending.
The Profits Cycle
(1) Contrarian’s scenario. (2) Could the S&P climb to 1565.19 in 2010? (3) Profit margin held up remarkably well this time. (4) Plenty of room for improvement, on the margin. (5) Profits vs. bubble cycles. (6) Battered Investor Syndrome. (7) Crackberries for the masses. (8) IT for fun and profit.
Tyranny of the Technocrats
(1) Power grab by the EPA. (2) Suicide is painless. (3) Three of a kind: Wilson, Carter, & Obama. (4) Meet Lisa Jackson. (5) The oil/gas ratio is narrowing. (6) Why weren’t small businesses invited to Jobs Summit? (7) December’s NFIB survey remained down and out. (8) One job opening for every six unemployed. (9) Growth vs. Value. (10) Health Care is very cheap.
Inverse Relationships
(1) Was Friday’s employment report a major inflection point for gold, the dollar, and stocks? (2) Ben Bernanke and Rahm Emanuel. (3) New EPA ruling could choke the economy. (4) Global growth, not weak dollar, driving commodity prices higher. (5) How does the dollar impact profits? (6) From P/E-led to E-led bull market. (7) Best in breed among Materials: Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals.
Normalcy
(1) Above average decline in jobless claims. (2) Revisions could show an uptick in November’s jobs. (3) Washington spending lots of money to create a few jobs. (4) Temporary jobs are better than no jobs. (5) Cash for Caulkers. (6) Did jobless rate peak in October? (7) Productivity on steroids. (8) From Ugly Duckling to Black Swan. (9) Bunning throws heat at Greenspan and Bernanke. (10) Macroeconomists are the problem rather than the solution. (11) “The Messenger” (++).