Independent Financial Research & Analysis
Daily briefings, 6,500+ real-time charts, and macro insights from Dr. Ed Yardeni and his research team.
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Recent insights from our daily morning briefings
On Aluminum, P/Es & Semis
The Iran war has tightened the market for aluminum, driving up prices and benefitting US producers. Jackie looks at the market dynamics and what Alcoa execs had to say about the unexpected demand they’re seeing. … Alcoa is also building a gallium plant for the US, Australian, and Japanese governments to ensure ample supplies of the metal used in electronics and produced mostly by China. … Also: Some S&P 500 sectors and industries have enjoyed rising valuations over the past year; we list some of the biggest winners. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment, three announcements could dramatically alter demand and supply in the semiconductor industry.
Read Full AnalysisOn Private Credit, Brazil, And Earnings
The private-credit market is inherently illiquid. Recently, it has needed to gate redemptions, making investors who want access to their funds wait. Vocal retail investors have reporters questioning whether this could trigger a 2008-style financial crisis. That’s not happening, Melissa explains. But she outlines two contagion-transmission paths that bear watching during these uncertain times. … Also: William takes us to Brazil, where the uncertain outcome of a close presidential race will keep investors in limbo for months. Meanwhile, prioritizing Brazilian stocks over bonds might be wise. … And: Joe expects S&P 500 companies’ collective Q1 earnings growth to beat even the 14% analysts project.
Read Full AnalysisTaiwan: Great Business, Bad Location
Taiwan’s economy could be collateral damage in the Iran war, reports William. The US’s geopolitical ambitions might embolden China to make good on its pledge to bring Taiwan back under its wing, especially if President Trump doesn’t offer the island nation continued US support—as well he might not. The prospect of TSMC under Chinese control holds apocalyptic economic implications since that one company makes most of the world’s advanced semiconductors. But Taiwanese ETFs are rallying all the same. Is the market right that China won’t risk its own GDP growth by invading Taiwan? … Also: Toby examines Taiwan’s rapidly growing but precariously undiversified economy, overly dependent on tech exports.
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