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A World Of Hurt
Stagflation is spreading globally as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz stymies trade, slows economies, and exacerbates inflation. Toby points out that stagflationary macroeconomic environments don’t necessarily hobble a country’s stock market (Japan is a case in point) if companies can grow profit margins nonetheless. … Also: William discusses how the Fed’s likely pivot toward tightening and the prospect of a stronger US dollar cause problems for emerging market economies. … And: Germany’s economy, the economic engine of Europe, is sputtering as it slides into stagflation. As Germany goes, so goes Europe, and a weak Europe doesn’t bode well for global economic resilience at a time of escalating geopolitical threats.
Leaders, Laggards & Breadth In The Current Bull Market
The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The problem is that several large-cap technology companies have delivered triple-digit gains, thereby making the double-digit growers appear to be underperformers. Nevertheless, even without the outperformers, it would still have been a solid bull market since October 12, 2022. The outperformers have been mostly associated with the AI theme. Shortly after the bear market ended in October 2022, ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022. The Magnificent-7 led the initial exuberance about AI, but along the way, semiconductor-related stocks soared too. That's where most of the triple-digit gains have occurred. However, investors hope that AI will lead to widespread improvements in productivity and earnings growth. We think that this is starting to happen. If so, then the bull market should broaden and continue. That is the key assumption behind our S&P 500 target of 10,000 by the end of the decade. Since the start of the current bull market, only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have outperformed the index's 107.0% gain (chart). Information Technology is up 225.7%, and Communication Services is up 212.3%. The Industrials sector is up 102.1%, making it a slight underperformer despite a triple-digit gain. The remaining eight sectors are all double-digit underperformers. The same conclusion results from an analysis of the stock market's numerous indexes covering Growth versus Value and SMidCaps versus LargeCaps since October 12, 2022 (chart). However, as we showed yesterday, earnings breadth is improving within the S&P 500 and also among the SMidCaps. The naysayers have been comparing the current bull market to that of the late 1990s. Our comparison of the two shows fewer excesses in the current bull market so far. For example, the ratio of the S&P 100 to the S&P 500 remains well below its late-1990s peak (chart). Most importantly, the current forward P/E for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector is 24.3, not much above the S&P 500's 21.1 (chart). During the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, the spread between the two was around 20 points. Similarly, the current combined market-cap share of the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors at 48.0% is well supported by their forward earnings share of 42.9% (chart). During the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, the two sectors' market-cap share peaked at 40.2%, while their forward earnings share was around 24.0%. Then again, the Buffett Ratio is at a record high (chart). While Warren Buffett is still the Chairman of the Board of Berkshire Hathaway, the fund's portfolio is now distinctively run by CEO Greg Abel. He made waves during Q1-2026 by aggressively reshaping the portfolio—completely exiting a third of Berkshire's positions (including Amazon and Domino's) and heavily buying Alphabet, building on the massive $373 billion cash hoard Buffett left behind at the end of 2025. We respect Buffett and his ratio. Nevertheless, we remain bullish.
Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer
The financial markets expect interest rates to remain higher for longer, notwithstanding President Trump’s demands that Kevin Warsh, newly instated as Fed chief, get rates down. But the macroeconomic backdrop no longer supports an easing bias, let alone a rate cut. Paradoxically, Elias and Ed explain, a more hawkish Warsh than investors expect would actually work in Trump’s favor via its downward effect on long-term Treasury yields. … We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at its June meeting, shifting to a tightening policy stance, followed by a rate hike in July. … Also: Two recent Fed reports confirm consumers’ resilience.
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