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On AI Again & Earnings Again
The AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being funded by Wall Street’s complex financial concoctions. The deals hinge on projections of AI end-user demand, some of which is unproven so far, and they could fall apart if the projections aren’t met. What then? Would AI go from boom to bust à la the housing market circa 2008? Probably not, says Melissa, though she points out the vulnerabilities in the AI ecosystem posed by creative financial engineering. … Also: Joe assesses the impacts of two big companies’ MTM gains on the S&P 500 companies’ collective Q2 and projected earnings.
Raising Our S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Outlook Due To FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)
I. Quarterly Earnings Per Share What a fabulous Q2-2026 earnings season it has been! So far, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported. They broadly crushed industry analysts' forecasts for earnings and profit margins, both of which saw a boost from mark-to-market (MTM) gains from Alphabet and Amazon for a second straight quarter. These MTM gains (along with Meta’s little-mentioned gain from a tax reversal) boosted earnings by $5.88 to $75.03 during Q1 and by $14.00 to $97.83 in Q2 (chart). As a result, S&P 500 EPS rose 19.0% y/y in Q1 and 46.7% y/y in Q2. Without the MTM gains, earnings rose 9.5% and 25.7% during those two quarters (chart) II. Annual & Forward Earnings Per Share Those 2026 MTM gains have boosted the S&P 500 forward EPS to a record high (chart). The 2027 estimate, which doesn't include any projections of future MTM gains, has also been rising to new highs. Forward earnings is converging toward the 2027 estimate, which is currently $408.83. The two series will be identical at the end of this year. We estimate that the MTM gains lowered the S&P 500's forward P/E by 0.4ppts as of August 10. Joe and I have been bullish on earnings but not nearly as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have since mid-2025. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market to record highs. Our 2026 and 2027 S&P 500 EPS estimates have been $330 and $375, respectively, since early May, when we raised them in response to Q1's strong results. Those were bullish estimates back then. Analysts' consensus EPS estimates for both years have continued to rocket higher since then. They are currently $359.60 (up 32.6% from $271.29 last year!) and $408.83 (up 13.4% from the current 2026 consensus estimate) (chart). We are raising our S&P 500 EPS estimates to $375 for 2026 and $415 next year, up from $330 and $375. The 2026 estimate increase of $45 includes nearly $20 of the MTM gains that were recognized during Q1 and Q2 by Alphabet and Amazon, as well as Meta’s tax reversal gain. III. Revenues Per Share & Profit Margin We are also raising our S&P 500 RPS for both 2026 and 2027 to $2,250 and $2,450 from $2,200 and $2,300 (chart). Our outlooks for EPS and RPS imply that the S&P 500 forward profit margin will rise to 16.7% this year (including MTM gains) and 16.9% next year (chart). Absent the MTM gains, 2026’s profit margin would be around 15.8%. Our forecasts are higher than the current consensus of 15.4% and 16.6%. Keep in mind that prices for semiconductors and other AI-related hardware are soaring, thus accounting for some of the surge in the S&P 500 profit margin. IV. Roaring 2020s Scenario We’re now assuming that S&P 500 forward earnings per share (currently at $389.90) will be $415 at the end of this year. We expect a steady progression to $550 by the end of 2029. We aren't anticipating a recession. We are sticking with our forward P/E range of 18.0-22.0 through the end of the decade. Our forecasted target ranges for the S&P 500 have increased for 2026 through 2029 (chart). We are raising our year-end 2026 point estimate to 8,400 from 8,250. We are maintaining our 10,000 target for the end of 2029, though we are likely to raise it if the Roaring 2020s continue to go our way. Our key assumption is that the economy will remain resilient, and so will earnings. That's been our mantra since we first started writing about the Roaring 2020s during the summer of 2020. We could certainly have another recession scare along the way, as we did in early 2025 and 2026. We’re leaving our May 10 call of the subjective probability of a continuation of the Roaring 2020s at 80%, up from 60% before merging it with our meltup scenario (previously at 20%). We think any pullback (and even a meltdown) will be a buying opportunity and won't trigger a recession or bear market similar to the 1999-2000 Tech Bubble and Tech Wreck. We are sticking with 20% odds of a recession that causes a bear market. Joe and I have never seen anything like this.
On Asian Currencies, Australia & Canada
Asian currencies are in crisis, but the situation isn’t as dire as the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, writes William. Today, he explores what’s at stake and the reasons that the US Treasury department has intervened to shore up the yen—including self-interest. … Also: Australia’s rate-hike cycle is ending, not with a bang but a shrug. … And: A look at the trade war heating up between the US and Canada, again. … Plus: Canada’s strong stock market this year doesn’t reflect its economy as much as what’s happening in the worlds of energy and finance, Toby observes, given its composition of industries. Earnings have been driving the Canadian market higher, not P/E multiple expansion.
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