Independent Financial Research & Analysis
Daily briefings, 7,400+ real-time charts, and macro insights from Dr. Ed Yardeni and his research team.
Research
Latest Research
Recent insights from our research team
God Bless America!
The United States of America has thrived for 250 years. There have been setbacks along the way. But they were overcome. The Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed." The Constitution of the United States, signed September 17, 1787, was based on these principles. It established the rule of law for Americans and provided a system of checks and balances designed to reduce the chances that any faction could gain enough power to rule over the governed without their consent. Its preamble states: "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." The rule of law thus established protected life, liberty, and property with a justice system overseen by the Supreme Court, which had the final say on the constitutionality of any law passed by Congress or any executive order issued by the president. The system was designed to protect the rights of minority factions from the tyranny of the majority. Most Americans accept that the right to pursue happiness does not come with a government guarantee to provide happiness. The American constitutional system has been and will continue to be challenged. The factions will continue to complain that it is prone to gridlock. That's true because it was designed that way. Hopefully, our constitutional system of checks and balances will survive the next 250 years of our nation's future. Here are some of the macroeconomic achievements of the United States: (1) GDP & Consumers. Real GDP is on track to hit another record high this year (chart). Recessions have been less frequent in recent years than in the past. The current expansion has lasted since 2009, with the exception of the two-month lockdown in early 2020. During the current decade, the economy passed several stress tests, including the pandemic and the lockdowns, supply-chain disruptions, soaring inflation, the tightening of monetary policy, higher tariffs, and Gulf War III. Productivity growth has been a key driver of real GDP growth in the United States. Productivity is the main driver of the standard of living, measured by inflation-adjusted hourly compensation (chart). Both are at record highs. The number of hours worked by Americans is at an all-time high (chart). Inflation-adjusted household consumption, another measure of the standard of living, is also at a record high (chart). (2) Housing. The "American Dream" of owning a home is attainable, contrary to popular belief. During Q1-2026, 65.3% of all households owned their homes (chart). Homeownership rates for young adults fell in the years following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) but have been relatively stable since roughly 2015 (chart). Of course, in the years just before the GFC, a speculative bubble in the housing market had boosted homeownership. (3) Household Net Worth. Household net worth rose to a record $174.0 trillion during Q1-2026 (chart). The top 50 percentile group held almost all of it. The apparent wealth inequality is mostly attributable to older people having higher net worth than younger ones! Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation have a combined net worth of $109.4 trillion (chart). They are the largest and wealthiest cohort of seniors in history. (4) Productivity and Capital Spending. America is probably on the verge of a major productivity growth boom. A labor shortage combined with a skills mismatch is forcing businesses to invest in productivity-enhancing technologies. Over the past 12 quarters through Q1-2026, productivity has risen at a 2.7% annual rate (chart). The demand for productivity-enhancing technologies, along with onshoring in manufacturing, is boosting capital spending dramatically (chart). High-tech currently accounts for a record 54.9% of current-dollar capital spending in the US (chart). (5) Profits. Corporate profits and cash flow rose to record highs during Q1-2026 (chart). Corporate profit margins are matching recent record highs (chart). Proprietors' income and rental income are also at record highs (chart). Combined, they totaled a record $3.3 trillion during May 2026. (6) Entrepreneurs. America is a great country for sole proprietors and entrepreneurs to pursue their happiness. What makes them happy is growing their businesses by providing their customers with the best goods and services available on the market. They prosper when their customers are happy with what they are offering. There were a record 31.1 million sole proprietorships in America during 2023 (chart). Business applications rose to a record 6.0 million during the 12 months through May 2026 (chart). (7) Capital Markets. The US has the largest capital markets in the world. The US equity market totaled $106.9 trillion during Q1-2026 (chart). New issuance of bonds and stocks totaled a record $3.0 trillion over the 12 months through May (chart). At the end of June, the US MSCI accounted for 63.5% of the market capitalization of the All Country World MSCI (chart). Its earnings share was 54.1%. (8) Energy. The US turned into a net exporter of crude oil & petroleum products at the beginning of the current decade (chart). The US turned into a net exporter of natural gas at the end of the previous decade (chart). (9) Foreign Investors. Contrary to popular opinion, foreign investors remain major net buyers of US fixed-income and equity securities (chart). Over the past 12 months through April, they purchased a record $763.0 billion in US equities. Foreign investors hold a record $9.4 trillion in US Treasuries (chart). The US dollar accounts for more than half (57.1%) of foreign currency exchange reserves (chart). Happy 250th birthday, America! Godspeed!
On Consumers, Earnings & New Semiconductors
Don’t be concerned about the New York Fed’s recent study of household debt and credit, says Jackie. The high rate of consumer credit delinquencies reported reflects data inaccuracies. All other indications suggest today’s consumer is the picture of financial health. … Also: A look at next year’s earnings growth prospects for various S&P 500 sectors and industries. The Information Technology sector is expected to lead the pack again, as energy- and supply-shocked sectors (Energy, Materials) lag behind, and two Health Care industries accelerate growth at a remarkable pace. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment, novel semiconductor structures, with transistors stacked vertically, promise increased speed and efficiency.
Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes
The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring price stability. At Sintra, Warsh reiterated that pledge and explicitly stated that price stability means lowering inflation to the Fed's 2.0% target. The former has exceeded the latter for more than five years. He refused to provide any forward guidance in response to several questions by moderator Sara Eisen. Instead, he repeated that as Fed chair, he won't provide any forward guidance. Instead, he wants the financial markets to provide guidance to the Fed about the proper course for monetary policy. In effect, Warsh will be guided by the Bond Vigilantes. He said today that he was pleased to see that since his presser, measures of expected inflation in the fixed-income markets have moderated. That's correct. The 10-year bond yield has declined in recent weeks. The yield spread between the 10-year Treasury nominal and TIPS bonds has narrowed to 2.23%. And the 10-year forward breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.30% (charts). That all happened because right after June's FOMC meeting, Warsh actually did provide the financial markets with plenty of forward guidance, as did the FOMC's statement and Dot Plot. The FOMC and the committee's new chair are hawkish. The short statement ended with an emphatic pledge: "The Committee will deliver price stability." In his presser, Warsh mentioned "price stability" eight times in that same context. Today's economic data confirm that the manufacturing sector and the labor markets are in good shape, while inflation remains troublesome: (1) ISM’s M-PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped 0.7 points to 53.5 in June but remained near a four-year high (chart). The index has been above 50.0 for six straight months, the longest expansion streak since 2022, a reading confirmed by the average of regional business surveys. Manufacturing continues to be supported by the AI buildout, rising defense spending, and inventory stockpiling in response to supply-chain disruptions attributable to the Gulf War III. (2) ADP’s Payrolls. ADP reported 98,000 private-sector jobs added in June (chart). That lifted the three-month average to its highest since January 2025. Gains were broad-based across sectors, and wage growth for job switchers rose to 6.6%. Revelio Labs put June job creation at 259,000, the strongest since October 2023. Taken together, these reports suggest that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June employment report will be solid. Our estimate is 188,000, the same as the three-month average through May. (3) Challenger’s Layoff Announcements. Monthly layoff announcements remained low in June, as confirmed by weekly initial unemployment insurance claims (chart). (4) Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. Q2 real GDP growth is now tracking at only 1.2% (saar), according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, down sharply from the prior reading of 2.5% (chart). The revision was driven by a slowdown in private nonresidential capital expenditures in May's Construction Spending report. However, underlying demand remains solid. Final sales to domestic purchasers are tracking at 3.1% in Q2, up from 2.2% in Q1, and consumer spending is running at 2.0%, well above the near-stagnant 0.4% of Q1. A surge in May merchandise imports to $3.13 trillion (saar), against weaker exports of $2.08 trillion, also weighed on the nowcast (chart). The US is importing more semiconductors as a result of the AI spending boom. (5) Inflation. The prices-paid component of June's M-PMI posted its largest monthly decline since July 2022 as oil prices plunged (chart). Even so, at 73.0, it remains well above its level at the start of the year, before the war began. The average of the five regional Fed banks’ prices-paid indexes also advanced to levels last seen in 2022, confirming that price pressures remain in the pipeline. The average prices-received component of the five regional Fed banks’ business surveys rose at a more modest pace but also remained elevated (chart).
Archive
Our Research Library
19 years of daily research, charts, and analysis
Topics
QuickTakes Topics
Timely commentary covering the most important market themes
Charts
Find Any Chart in Seconds
Search across 7,435+ real-time charts with instant visual previews
NETFLIX: FORWARD OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
ACCENTURE: FORWARD REVENUES
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE: FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN
NIKE: FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN
Sample charts from our collection of 7,435+ visualizations
Tools
Research Tools
Interactive dashboards for tracking economic conditions and market trends
Beige Book Monitor
Fed economic conditions across 12 districts with traffic-light signals.
FOMC Policy Meter
Dovish-to-hawkish policy stance tracker across FOMC meetings.
FOMC Minutes Monitor
Hawk/dove signal extraction across 10 economic themes.
FOMC SEP Monitor
Fed projections and dot plot distributions across meetings.
FOMC Statements
Every FOMC policy statement since 1997 — full text, rates, and voting records.
Private Credit Monitor
Auto-updating chronology of the private credit liquidity crisis.
Release Calendar
Major publications from the Fed, ECB, IMF, and 12 global institutions.
Try Yardeni Research free for four weeks.
Full access to everything we publish. No credit card, no obligation.