Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Anarchy, Austerity, or Sanity?
(1) Germany coughs up. (2) Germany proposes fiscal discipline. (3) Karl Otto Pöhl blasts the deal. (4) Der Spiegel’s charts on when PIIGS come home to roost. (5) Nicolas the First to freeze government spending? (6) Anarchists can’t beat Bond Vigilantes. (7) Novel retirement plans out of Greece. (8) A dozen reasons to stay calm. (9) From cradle of democracy to graveyard of socialism. (10) Wolfgang and Angela have a point. (11) The FOMC is in no rush to hike rates or sell bonds. (12) LEI running out of gas, but still plenty of room for CEI to catch up. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Athens, USA. Moving Averages. Inflation. Health Care
(1) Athens in California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. (2) Arnold says California faces “Sophie’s Choice.” (3) Illinois doesn't pay its bills. (4) Promises that can’t be kept. (5) Retire at 55 with half your income! (6) We are all 200-dma technicians now. (7) The US earnings story has yet to be hit by Euro-Mess. (8) Inflation remains subdued around the world with three important exceptions. (9) Health Care is good for playing defense, but challenged by Washington’s meddling. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Big Mistake
(1) The big difference between the American and European TARPs. (2) The blind leading the blind. (3) It would have been cheaper, and better for the euro, to let Greece default. (4) From awe to awful. (5) The ECB’s dirty sterilization. (6) Flight to quality may continue to benefit US Treasuries. (7) Americans set to vote for a change again. (8) How much longer can US government prop up housing industry? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The New Abnormal. Forward Earnings. Industrials
(1) Angela bought some time. (2) The worst case scenario is well known. (3) The new Prime Minister is shocked by all the “crazy” spending. (4) A happier scenario could pan out for Pan-Europe. (5) The ECB is propping up collateral to avert freeze in money markets. (6) For Jean-Claude, the question is to QE or not to QE? (7) Corrected error still shows strong forward earnings. (8) Will global production lose its groove? (9) Industrials likely to pause along with the overall market. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Euro-Mess. Repo-Mess. Four ZIRPs
(1) From Shock & Awe to "Oh, Shucks." (2) Trichet wants a quantum leap in fiscal discipline. (3) George Will says Europe doesn’t have the political will to back EMU. (4) The Germans are horrified. (5) The Greeks devalue their currency. (6) EU doubles down. (7) The similarities between the subprime mortgage and subprime governments problems. (8) Will dicey collateral freeze the repo market and interbank lending again? (9) New monetary union: Four
The Trillion Dollar Question
(1) The forces of light vs. the forces of darkness. (2) Profits, productivity, and Rodney Dangerfield. (3) Profits story remains upbeat despite downward correction in forward earnings. (4) Will Euro-Mess cause analysts to shave their earnings? (5) Washington tells Europeans to get some fiscal discipline. (6) No shortage of US Treasuries. (7) Federal tax receipts is a lagging indicator. (8) Selling more to the New World. (9) Transports transporting the Industrials higher. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Interesting Issues
(1) The beginning of the end for EMU? (2) The Euro-TARP is a bit of a sham. (3) A double-dip for Europe? (4) From urbanization to suburbanization in China. (5) Fed likely to extend the extended period. (6) Regime change? (7) Fewer bulls. (8) Ups and downs in the labor market. (9) A big V for global semiconductor sales. (10) Continuing to overweight IT. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Euro-Mess. Bears & Wolfpacks
(1) A variation on "Sell in May" theme. (2) EU buys time for $1tn plus change. (3) Another round of easy money as ECB implements QE. (4) Germans are shocked, not awed. (5) Bears say EU heading toward double dip. (6) Three prominent bears still bearish, while one is wavering just a bit. (7) Would the Uptick Rule have averted last week’s plunge? (8) Sideways for commodities too. (9) Lowering Financials to market weight. (10) Banks report less loan loss provisions. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Euro-TARP
(1) Shock and Awe, all over again. (2) A major difference between their TARP and ours. (3) The big deal is that the ECB will buy bonds. (4) The Bears will continue to growl. (5) Lots of strong data to charge up the Bulls. (6) Hiring is in fashion again. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Bond Gods
(1) Gods vs. Greeks. (2) The ECB vs. the Gods. (3) Life was good for Greek government employees. (4) Thus spake Pimco’s Gods. (5) The failure of another social welfare state. (6) The US dollar wins, while US yields remain low. (7) Sideways for stocks for a while. (8) A U-shaped recovery in employment. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Panic Attack
(1) Too much, too late for Greece? (2) Focusing on the short term. (3) Latest sentiment reading too bullish. (4) Too many betting against the Euro? (5) Reversion toward 200-dma on S&P 500 would amount to average correction in a bull market. (6) Governments gone wild. (7) Platinum, palladium, and Chinese car sales. (8) Purchasing managers are exuberant. (9) US consumers are not. (10) In Materials, overweight Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Profits vs. The Bears
(1) Are we there yet? (2) April was a month of shock and awe. (3) Analysts were awed, while investors were in shock. (4) Unprecedented upward revisions in earnings. (5) Valuation multiples go down as earnings go up faster than stock prices. (6) The bearish Intelligencia sees crashes everywhere. (7) Earned income per worker at record high! (8) And so are government transfer payments. (9) Overweight the Autos. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Go Away?
(1) To stay or not to stay? That is the question. (2) Tape looks tired. (3) Go away until November 2? (4) Is the Greek crisis over? (5) Is the Goldman crisis just starting? (6) Will China avert a crisis? (7) Will governments doze off after Greek wake-up call? (8) Sam Stovall’s insights on selling in May. (9) Why US stocks should outperform. (10) The Dodd bill and the Volcker Rule. (11) Securities rated AAA should have been rated X. (12) It’s looking like a V-shaped recovery for real GDP. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Two Dozen Reasons. Home Prices. Defensive Sectors
(1) A dozen good reasons for the bulls and another dozen for the bears. (2) Is it the level of earnings or earnings comps that matter? (3) A few positive consequences of a mostly negative situation in Greece. (4) The Tricky Threesome could cause yet another correction. (5) However, awesome profits recovery remains number one on bullish list. (6) The Big Barofsky criticizes Treasury’s lame mortgage modification program. (7) Home prices bottoming, but not recovering. (8) Will Neil charge Tim over AIG? (9) Defensive stocks are for bears, not for us. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Apocalypse Now and Then
(1) The Greeks don’t want to be rescued. (2) The Europeans don’t want to rescue them. (3) The Greeks are devaluing their currency, which is the Euro. (4) Oh no, not again! (5) Zorba’s crisis should prolong Fed’s ZIRP. (6) More sordid details about the Credit Insurance Fraud Industry. (7) Consumer Confidence edges higher on expectations of better labor market. (8) Consumer Staples outperformed yesterday. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Super-TARP. Vertical Earnings. Glorious Industrials
(1) Senate bill attacks angels. (2) Another Plunge Prevention Team. (3) CBO assessment confirms that bill includes a permanent Super-TARP. (4) A beautiful Blue Angels formation in Q1-Q4 earnings estimates. (5) As good as it gets for earnings? (6) CAT is forecasting better global growth. The IMF is even more bullish. (7) Durable goods orders going vertical thanks to exports. (8) Productivity soaring among capital goods producers. (9) Outperforming Industrials should continue to do so. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Magnetar. Fat Cats. Lean Inflation
(1) Will Abacus add up for the SEC? (2) Still leaping over a litany of worries. (3) Scuttlebutt: Bullish technicians turning cautious. (4) Earnings still sizzling rather than fizzling. (5) SEC targets just one of the defective products sold by the Credit Insurance Fraud Industry (CIFI). (6) Lots of vertical earnings in April’s Earnings Month. (7) Fat Cats and Cheshire Cats. (8) Inflation likely to remain subdued in US with or without OER. (9) Consumers are doing what they do best. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Wage Controversy. Earnings Season. Oil
(1) Was the previous decade as bad as Biden claims? (2) Economic policies: Now for something completely different. (3) Are real wages really stagnating? (4) Biden, Levin, and Reich think so. (5) The data show real pay per worker at record high! (6) Medians vs. means. (7) So why are Consumer Discretionary stocks so strong? (8) Another record for IT earnings. (9) IMF predicts that emerging markets will lead global growth. So does oil demand. (10) Overweight MidCap Energy. Market weight LargeCap Energy. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
IMF Report. Tech Earnings. Polls. Housing-Related Stocks
(1) IMF report sees more global financial instability ahead. (2) IMF highlights sovereign debt problem. (3) Greek Parliament passes draconian measures. (4) IMF says don’t blame CDS speculators. (5) Awesome earnings. (6) Tech is leading the charge. (7) Too many bulls. (8) Why is everyone so depressed, and spending more? (9) A couple of outperforming housing-related industries. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Wallshington. Earnings. GDP
(1) A league of their own. (2) It’s all about politics, business, money, and derivatives. (3) Siding with Obama on derivatives. (4) Something for everybody. (5) Bank earnings. (6) Back on the balance sheet. (7) Lots of bullish news in latest Earnings Month. (8) Lots of bullish news in leading indicators. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Worry List. Chinese Dream. Output Boom
(1) Akron, Cleveland, and Chicago. (2) Until Friday, the consensus view was relatively constructive. (3) The beginning of a serious correction? (4) Some new things to worry about. (5) Does Goldman matter? (6) Other items on the Worry List include Greek debt, Chinese property, and Middle East oil. (7) The Chinese want the American Dream, not the Nightmare. (8) Asian manufacturing boom is trickling down. (9) Consumers and small business owners are depressed, but the economy is not. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bullish Season. Bullish Retailers
(1) The Old Normal is new again. (2) Not optimistic enough about earnings? (3) Thinking about retesting the record high for stocks. (4) Are all those people at the malls a bunch of delinquents? (5) Both the critics and the sympathizers of American consumers are missing the big story. (6) Robert Reich sees Americans on downward escalator. (7) So why are retail sales so strong? (8) And why are retail stock prices on a rocket ship? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Tech, Trade, and Transports
(1) Thank you, Intel. (2) US matters less for US earnings. (3) The recovery’s hung jury. (4) Meanwhile, our Boom-Bust Barometer is booming. (5) Also booming are cyclical stocks. (6) Nearly 60% of US exports going to New World. (7) Tracking the rallies in tech heavy, capital goods heavy, and commodity heavy stock markets. (8) Transportation stocks approaching new highs. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Revenge of the Nerds. Revenues. China. Materials
(1) SMidCaps beating LargeCaps again. (2) V-shaped upturns in forward earnings. (3) Good news: Total tax revenues are up. (4) Bad news: Payroll tax revenues are down. (5) Good news: Corporate tax receipts are up. (6) Will China’s auto sales remain hot if M2 and bank loans cool off? (7) Tapping vs. slamming the brakes in China. (8) Materials benefitting from global boom. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Another Meltup?
(1) Another bullish earnings season ahead. (2) Spring is in the air, and Green Shoots are sprouting again. (3) Consumer Discretionary stocks are going vertical. (4) Transportation stocks are on the fast track toward record highs. (5) Platinum and palladium soaring along with Chinese auto sales. (6) Greenspan's shocking admission. (7) Fed’s ZIRP convinces investors to treasure Treasuries. (8) Geithner mollifies America’s Chinese creditors. (9) Financials could continue to outperform as economy improves, led by Regional Banks. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.