Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
LeBron and Me
(1) Whoosh! (2) All Stars. (3) Dreading September. (4) Counting the ways the bears might be wrong. (5) “I see Death Crosses.” (6) The technicians are mostly bearish. (7) Some good news for stocks in the credit markets. (8) Fewer deadbeats among consumer and junk bond borrowers. (9) The third jobless recovery. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Groundhog Day. Lost Decade
(1) Punxsutawney and Dow 10000. (2) Paucity of long-term capital gains depressing valuation multiples. (3) Valuation compression. (4) Finding the meaning of life in dividends. (5) The ECB overshadows the Fed. (6) Stressing the stress tests. (7) Home-grown economic indicators are all meandering. (8) Global Boom Bust Barometer suggests neither. (9) One upper Down Under. A couple of downers in Germany and Japan. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Thus Spake the Markets
(1) What are markets saying about the global economic outlook? (2) The best real-time indicator of global business activity. (3) Is 2010 shaping up as a repeat of 2008? (4) Emerging markets holding up, with one big exception. (5) Capital goods heavy stock markets resist double dippers. (6) Trevor Greetham sees a two-year cycle. (7) Bonds by default. (8) Cooling PMIs. (9) Hot chips. (10) Capital goods orders are good. (11) IT underperforming now, but should outperform later. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Ceiling of Worry
(1) Some good news…really. (2) What about the drop in the Baltic Dry Index? (3) Technically speaking, the Bear is making a comeback. (4) Death Crosses and Double Dips. (5) Wall, Ceiling, and Floor of Worries. (6) Resilient earnings, but weak valuation. (7) Hidden in grim employment report: Real hourly wages at record highs. (8) Barton’s Dip. (9) Housing's dip. (10) “Winter’s Bone” (++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Three Witches
(1) Assessing the toil and trouble in China, the US, and Europe. (2) Battered Investors Syndrome. (3) Wage hikes in China suggest economic strength. (4) US slowing, not dipping. (5) Another credit crunch contagion? (6) More pain from Spain. (7) PMIs edge down. So what? (8) Jack Ablin’s 5% solution. (9) Technicals rule! (10) G6 valuation multiples falling. (11) Trick question. (12) Enjoy the Fourth of July! NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Another Panic Attack
(1) Was the news really that bad, and really that new? (2) Accentuating the negative can make it so. (3) War zone. (4) Lots of technical damage. (5) Death Cross in the S&P 500? (6) Was the downward revision in China’s LEI a big deal? (7) Contradictory consumer confidence indicators. (8) Does upbeat Earnings Month suggest that analysts are missing another downturn in earnings? (9) Consumer Staples for the masses. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
G20
(1) G20 nations pledge stimulus now, discipline later. (2) Greek downgrade was a game changer. (3) American voters leaning towards fiscal conservatives. (4) Cameron’s Thatcher speech. (5) The pound outperforms the euro. (6) German election, Spanish auction, ECB loans, and Chinese leading indicators. (7) In US, industry analysts remain sanguine. (8) US consumers: The Haves and Have-Nots. (9) Dodd-Frank bill good for politicians, regulators, and lawyers. Not so bad for Financials. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Sol or Sombra?
(1) Growth Imperative vs. Debt Debacle. (2) Some good news out of Germany and Britain. (3) Two strikes for the French. (4) Has the euro bottomed? (5) OECD’s Pensions at a Glance. (6) A bullish scenario for the S&P 500 for the second half. (7) Ready to rumble in the Middle East? (8) Six reasons why a Double Dip is unlikely. (9) Little vs. Big Dipper. (10) Industrials should outperform, barring another Dip. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Double Dip?
(1) What are the odds? (2) State and local fiscal drags likely to start on the First of July. (3) Federal fiscal drag coming early next year. (4) Another inventory wipe-out unlikely. (5) Weak euro and pound should give Europe a boost. (6) Is it austerity or sanity? (7) Credit rating agencies working for the Bond Vigilantes, for a change. (8) Hoyer’s trial balloon. (9) Central banks morph into TARPs. (10) No surprise: Housing takes a dive after tax credit terminated. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The End of La Dolce Vita
(1) European tour. (2) Will weak euro offset austerity measures? (3) Some not so bad news from Europe. (4) Some more bad news on European banks. (5) Reflation or deflation? (6) Another good Earnings Month despite bad news backdrop. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Grapes of Wrath in China
(1) Running out of young, cheap workers. (2) The blessing and curse of one child. (3) Workers of China, Unite! (4) BIS studies China’s saving rate. (5) Lewis Turning Point. (6) Trickle down from China to other manufacturing centers. (7) Analysts may be starting to curb their enthusiasm. (8) An interesting composite index of the S&P 500 sees a yearend rally. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
China. Dog Days. Spain
(1) China floating toward consumer-led growth. (2) China is off the table for the G-20 meeting. (3) Stronger yuan should counter inflationary pressures in China, and protectionism aimed at China. (4) The Dog Days of summer are coming. (5) Assessing the stock market’s latest correction. (6) Assessing the Euro-Mess. (7) The pain in Spain. (8) Coincident indicators boosted by Census workers in May. (9) Leading indicators biased upwards by yield curve spread. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Roman Holiday
(1) “Keep Calm and Carry On.” (2) Nothing-terrible-has-happened-yet events. (3) A couple of “hooray” events. (4) The Sideways Summer Scenario. (5) A dinner with bearish fatalists. (6) Is shock-and-awe working? (7) Global oil demand turning up led by new highs in New World. (8) Energy stocks should be market performers. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Greetings from London!
(1) On a panel with Stephen King and Martin Barnes. (2) A double dip recession isn’t a worse-case scenario. It is the worst case. (3) What if the worst of the Euro-Mess is over? (4) Forward earnings remain resilient. (5) Is the Keynesian Endpoint necessarily bearish for stocks? (6) Bashing Keynes: Fiscal disciplinarians predict prosperity. (7) Who owns Europe’s toxic assets? (8) Global growth and trade should continue to fly through latest financial turbulence. (9) Transportation stocks still have momentum in their fundamentals. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Tug of War
(1) Bears are on the front cover of Businessweek. (2) The bears see too much debt. The bulls see enough growth. (3) Pimco sees Keynesian Endpoint in addition to New Normal, Sugar High, and Dirty Shirts. (4) Magazine Cover Indicator. (5) The Swiss National Bank props up the euro. (6) Unwinding the Hungarian carry trade. (7) Good reception for PIIGS. (8) Why did US retail sales disappoint? (9) Retailers may continue to outperform despite May’s setbacks. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Reassuring
(1) Bernanke accentuates the positives of Euro-Mess on US. (2) Bernanke endorses European actions to stem crisis. (3) European central banks aren’t drawing on their credit line at the Fed. (4) Numbers to watch to assess European credit crisis. (5) US mortgage applications plunge. (6) Latest Chinese data are reassuring, sort of. (7) Forward P/Es for the S&P 500’s sectors all dropping. (8) Forward P/Es for S&P 500 Value and Growth styles are doing the same. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Great Debate. The Big Surprise
(1) A cacophony of debaters. (2) Eighteen head-spinning issues. (3) Bull/Bear Ratio drops to 1.21. (4) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator stalls. (5) Laffer, Sachs, and Doll. (6) Global manufacturing recovery remains V-shaped. (7) Manpower survey shows global employment still expanding. (8) Lots of help wanted in China. (9) Despite ytd underperformance, Information Technology has the fundamentals of a winner. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Valuation & Geopolitics. Euro & Drachma
(1) Rudyard Kipling’s investment advice. (2) Battered Investor Syndrome. (3) It’s not about just the Euro-Mess and the Chinese Puzzle. (4) The Axis of Evil and friends. (5) The P/E measures the rise and fall of America’s geopolitical power. (6) Governments turn on markets despite their own credibility deficits. (7) China’s bubble bursts. So what’s next? (8) Will devaluation revive Eurozone? (9) Materials will rise, if global economy doesn’t fall. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
I am Spartacus!
(1) Hungary and Spartacus. (2) Why was May’s weak employment report a surprise? (3) The benefit of hindsight. (4) Retesting 200-day moving average less 5%. (5) The two big Known Unknowns. (6) The €2.2tn mystery. (7) Why the blind won’t lend to the blind. (8) SEC rule tightens money markets. (9) The new number to watch: Foreign financial commercial paper. (10) Accentuating the positives in labor market. (11) “Solitary Man” (++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Meaning of Life
(1) Accentuating the positives at home rather than the negatives abroad. (2) The best of a dodgy breed. (3) JFK’s legacy: Public unions and early retirement. (4) The beginning of the end of the social welfare state? (5) Spock: “Live long and prosper.” Dr. Ed: “Live long and work!” (6) Obama forecasts strong jobs report. (7) Mortgage applications take a dive. (8) Where’s all the money for public construction? (9) Auto sales in slow lane. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Monitoring Nonevents
(1) The good news is old news. (2) The new news should be that it isn't so bad. (3) Bull/Bear Ratio shows plenty of bears. (4) Lots of stock indexes sitting on the 200-day fence. (5) The Euro-TARP has started buying toxic assets. (6) Jean-Claude vs. Axel. (7) Financial Stability Review adds to instability. (8) Will global manufacturing boom go bust? (9) Rerating global earnings. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Gushers. Blind Pools. Welfare State
(1) Significant risks. (2) Will profits continue to gush? (3) Record corporate cash flow. (4) Headwinds for profits of financial industry. (5) Opportunities and challenges in overseas profits. (6) Comparing the subprime crises in America and Europe. (7) Are European banks blind pools like CDOs? (8) The ECB discusses instability in its latest Financial Stability Review. (9) America’s social welfare state is ballooning. (10) Terrible Mays usually followed by better summer months. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Is It SAFE?
(1) Chinese Bond Vigilantes. (2) Posse of Pessimists. (3) King of the Bond Vigilantes. (4) M3 can’t be measured, but they say it is collapsing. (5) Larry Summers wants to spend another $200bn. (6) Italy joins the Austerity Club. (7) A stimulus plan guaranteed to work. (8) Are analysts delusional, in denial, or just slow learners? (9) Housing likely to go from hot to cold. (10) Exports boost capital goods shipments. (11) Industrials should outperform barring a double dip. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Tragedy & Comedy
(1) Ancient Greeks. (2) The Panic Memo. (3) Monitoring a series of possible “nonevents.” (4) Add lots of panic to the list of reasons not to panic. (5) The 200-day moving average less 5%. (6) The true test of shock and awe. (7) No big deal in ECB’s balance sheet last week. (8) Consumers expect better times. (9) French business confidence belies double dip forecast for Europe. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Losing Faith in the Long Run
(1) Capitulating at the top. (2) The end is near. (3) There are a few positives to accentuate. (4) A Greek chorus: Morris, Roubini, El-Erian, and Wood. (5) Jumping off the ledge. (6) Little Kim is a big pain. (7) A closer look at BIS data on European bank exposure to PIIGS. (8) A perspective on Libor. (9) Remember M3? (10) Should T-bills be in the money supply? (11) Industry analysts remained upbeat on earnings during May. (12) Global oil demand firming as oil prices take a spill. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.