Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Ayatollah Strangelove. ZIRP. Worry List
(1) IAEA report raises Iran nuke fears and the price of oil. (2) Hillary Clinton supports regime change, sort of. (3) MidCap Energy is energized again. (4) The Bloom Box. (5) Big Israeli drones. (6) The Fed is ready to exit, but won’t for a while. (7) The bottom line for bonds and stocks is that ZIRP is here to stay. (8) The ten most popular worries. (9) A confusing leading indicator. (10) Another sink hole ahead for housing? (11) “Shutter Island” (++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
States of Emergency
(1) Has the financial crisis been nationalized? (2) Dubai, Greece, New Jersey, and California. (3) Will the last be first with spending cuts? (4) The trouble makers could be the problem solvers. (5) Gov. Chris Christie may be the first politician to cut public spending on Earth, or at least in NJ. (6) Carly Fiorina says California should go for broke. (7) What does it have to do with earnings? (8) IT is flying. (9) The Haves and Have-Nots. (10) Industrials should prosper. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Ungovernable? Bulls vs. Bears. Gas
(1) Gridlock and its alternative. (2) Stock investors are ambivalent. (3) Gridlock’s detractors include Krugman, Friedman, and Bayh. (4) The filibuster rule rules. (5) Is the correction over? (6) The Bull/Bear Ratio takes a dive as Large Speculators show biggest net short position in six years. (7) Lots of gas in the USA. (8) Controversy about the amount of shale gas. (9) Oil demand in the New and Old Worlds. (10) MidCap Energy outperforming again. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Austrians in China. Four Fortune Cookies. Retailers
(1) Tapping on the credit brakes, while flooring fiscal spending. (2) Should investors be unnerved by China’s policy shift, or impressed? (3) Soft or hard landing in China? (4) The Chinese have learned from the Fed’s mistakes. (5) Four Chinese proverbs for central bankers. (6) The utopian myth of the “Great Moderation.” (7) In the US, inventory cycle driving bank lending cycle. (8) Will Old World stock markets beat New World ones in 2010? (9) Large Speculators massively short S&P 500 and Euro. (10) World should grow in 2010, though more slowly. (11) US consumers haven’t lost the urge. (12) Retail stocks belie consumers’ naysayers. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Exit Strategy
(1) Getting ready to tighten, but not for a while. (2) Is the Fed doing it again? (3) This time, the bubble is in government. (4) The people are buying bonds. (5) The Chinese may be exiting already. (6) Greece and China have some good news. (7) The sum of several relief rallies is a bull market. (8) Adam Smith vs. the Doomsayers. (9) A blockbuster free trade zone. (10) Transportation stocks should be back on bull market track soon. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Riots in Greece. Inflation in China
(1) Bailout or boot out? (2) Does China have an inflation problem? (3) China has four choices. (4) Why the Chinese should let the yuan float higher. (5) Contagion fears turning bulls into bears. (6) Industry analysts fearlessly raise their earnings estimates. (7) Is the liquidity story still bullish? (8) Correction or calamity for commodities? (9) Materials should recover. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Clash of the Titans
(1) Perseus and the Bond Vigilantes. (2) A Big Fat Greek Drama. (3) Is the euro kaput? (4) The end of fiscal stimulus? (5) How central bankers are enabling big fiscal spenders to subdue Bond Vigilantes. (6) Elmendorf’s litany. (7) How Scott Brown’s victory will create more jobs. (8) A labored recovery for labor. (9) Two alternative paths for inflation. (10) What’s curbing the near-term enthusiasm for stocks? (11) “Invictus” (++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Hot Tech
(1) Tech is back. (2) Great Q4 stats charge up Tech analysts. (3) So why are Tech investors selling when they should be buying? (4) Global Boom 2.0 unleashing High-Tech Revolution 2.0. (5) Cisco's great call. (6) A few more upticks here and there, and payroll employment will be expanding once again. (7) A world full of happier PMIs should be good for PMs. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Austrians and Globalization
(1) Austrians, Keynesians, and Monetarists. (2) How do you know if you are an Austrian? (3) Must it all end badly? (4) The Masters of the Economy are a curse. (5) Are recessions necessary? (6) Globalization is the antidote. (7) Tobin, Friedman, and Smith. (8) A Ushaped batch of economic indicators. (9) Overweight Chinese autos. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Taking Sides
(1) Analysts are very bullish. (2) Investors are turning cautious. (3) Who is right? (4) Believe it or not: Analysts’ earnings forecast implies big jump in stock prices. (5) A remarkable recovery in global manufacturing. (6) Populist panderers pummel banks. (7) The full story behind the drop in bank lending. (8) Loan losses remain high, but they probably peaked. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Perpetual Candidate. The Bears. Financials
(1) Stocks are like a box of chocolates. (2) Still running for President. (3) Frustrated bulls. (4) Gridlock may be bullish, but weak Presidents are not. (5) The universal consensus is that this will end badly. (6) Three-ring circus: Obama, China, and PIIGS. (7) Are the bears overreacting? (8) A V-shaped recovery in real GDP so far. (9) Financials facing political uncertainty. (10) “Crazy Heart” (++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Monetary Policy in US and China
(1) One cheer for Ben Bernanke. (2) The Great Moderator. (3) ZIRP on auto-pilot. (4) Liu Mingkang for Fed Chairman! (5) China's bank regulator taps lending brakes by 22% for 2010. (6) Must bubbles always burst? (7) Investors are jittery about China, Obama, and PIIGS. (8) Earnings are coming through in US. (9) Earnings Month has more happy charts. (10) Housing is the weakest link. (11) Housing-related stocks likely to underperform in 2010. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
CBO's Unbalanced Budget
(1) The CBO vs. sleeping pills. (2) Tax cuts set to expire. (3) Will resulting tax hike cause Double Dip in 2011? CBO says no. (4) Is CBO low-balling cost of Fannie and Freddie debacle? (5) Don't trust the trust funds. (6) President chucks his liberal friends under the bus. (7) Consumers are looking forward to better days. (8) Companies are very profitable. (9) Good news for the bulls! (10) Earnings Month shows IT as winner, Telecom as loser. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Quacking Ducks. Chinese Puzzle
(1) Axelrod says the President gets it. (2) A really good one-term President. (3) The people are angry. (4) The State of the Union. (5) Another round of financial meltdowns has been averted so far. (6) Ross, LeFrak, Pimco, Chanos, and Friedman. (7) Companies awash with cash. (8) Analysts are bullish on earnings. (9) Global economy awash with liquidity. (10) Credit crunch in China? (11) Earnings Month. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Birds. Volcker Rule. Weakest Link
(1) Black Swans in Boston, Beijing, and Washington. (2) White House goes populist, turns on Wall Street. (3) Barney Frank is in no rush. (4) Darling doesn't love Volcker Rule. (5) BRIC man says Chinese should revalue. (6) GDP and earnings in America. (7) A Vshaped recovery among global LEIs. (8) Vs and Us among G6 forward earnings. (9) Housing is still the weakest link. (10) “Sherlock Holmes” (-). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Is Inflation heating up?
(1) China is bigger than Massachusetts. (2) The Chinese exit drill. (3) Government stimulus tends to be counter-cyclical in China too. (4) China is red hot. (5) Preempting an imaginary problem? (6) Globally, inflation has a few hot spots. (7) OECD inflation remains subdued. (8) Still lots of slack in US resource utilization. (9) The Phillips Curve has a disinflationary bent. (10) Unemployment, wages, and rent. (11) Overweight Health Care. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Political Upset
(1) Mudslides and landslides. (2) The Brown seat. (3) Healthy for health stocks. (4) Will the Democrats go nuclear? (5) How Obama lost his groove. (6) Black Swans in Boston and Beijing. (7) The Chinese start implementing anti-bubble policies. (8) Oil demand continues to plunge in aging Old World, and soar in emerging New World. (9) Lots of energy left in MidCap Energy. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Rooting for Gridlock
(1) FCIC’s show trial. (2) The truth is out there. (3) Kennedy’s seat. (4) A bullish scenario for health care. (5) Advisors are bullish on stocks, while the public is not. (6) Reading the electric meters around the world. (7) A big normal inventory “pop” for GDP. (8) More structural unemployment than in the past? (9) Extended benefits are extending joblessness. (10) Consumers take less credit, and are saving more. (11) Retailers defy consumer retrenchment pundits. (12) “Up in the Air” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Economic Bill of Rights
(1) We are all Socialists now. (2) FDR: the Founding Father of the Entitlement State. (3) You are entitled to a good job, good food, nice house, and adequate health care. (4) Ayn Rand’s scathing critique. (5) FDR won the debate. (6) Social Welfare in America. (7) A beige report on the economy. (8) No recovery in Federal tax revenues. (9) Small business owners remain depressed. (10) Is the stock market fairly valued? (11) Growth vs. Value PEGs.
The Warning
(1) Meet Brooksley Born. (2) Meet the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. (3) The attack of the Three Marketeers. (4) Phil Gramm’s law banned regulation of credit derivatives. (5) Profile in Courage. (6) Einhorn says CDSs should be banned. (7) China, Alcoa, and taxes. (8) Unlike Fed, PBoC acts to preempt bubble trouble. (9) FSMI is bullish. (10) Transportation stocks are bullish on economy.
The Dollar, Gold, and China
(1) Crashing currency candidates. (2) Sovereign debt concerns unsettle EPY currencies. (3) The best of the mutts. (4) Gold should continue to beat DEPY currencies. (5) More upside for New World currencies? (6) The good and the bad for the dollar. (7) IMF reserves data show dollar losing share. (8) China, China, China! (9) Autos, steel, and exports in China. (10) Should stock investors root for a weak or strong dollar in 2010? (11) Materials should continue to outperform in 2010.
From Left to Right
(1) Washington spending billions to create thousands of jobs. (2) Electorate turning more conservative as Washington turns more liberal. (3) Medicare’s chief actuary warns about unintended consequences. (4) Go get ‘em Harry, or just go? (5) Gridlock would be bullish. (6) Get ready for 7%+ real GDP. (7) Was bad weather to blame for December’s bad jobs report? (8) Firings are down, but jobless spells are lasting longer. (9) Waiting for earnings. (10) Lots of Vs and record highs in Earnings Month. (11) Job insecurity hits central bankers. (12) “Broken Embraces” (- -).
Fannie, Freddie, Feddie, and Rocky
(1) The Christmas Eve Conspiracy. (2) Will the Fed really stop buying mortgages? (3) Trashing the Constitution. (4) The Comeback Economy: “Yo, how you doin'?” (5) Asians follow Americans and Europeans toward free trade. (6) China taps on the brakes, while European consumer spending stalls. (7) Show time for emerging stock markets, especially in Latin America. (8) Make or break time for the euro, pound, and yen.
The Wealth Effect. Earnings. Housing
(1) Positive wealth effects in stock and bond markets. (2) Housing remains a submerged market. (3) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator flashing green. (4) Congressional dropouts handing victory to Gridlock. (5) More confidence in earnings estimates. (6) S&P 500’s earnings fundamentals are on the up side. (7) Profit margin has been remarkably resilient. (8) Tobin’s Q explains why existing home sales are hotter than new ones. (9) Don't rush to Homebuilders, though Home Improvement Retailers may benefit from fixing up fixer-uppers.
Back to Business. A Big Conspiracy
(1) New Year for Naysayers: Koo, Krugman, Evans-Pritchard. (2) Balancesheet recession. (3) 1937: Back to the future. (4) Japan as Weimar. (5) The coming crash in the euro. (6) Growth is the cure. (7) Why did Fannie and Freddie get such big Christmas presents? (8) The Geithner-Bernanke plot to nationalize the mortgage market. (9) Will growth fizzle after the inventory pop? (10) Profits are the cure, and they are making a big comeback.