Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
What Can the Fed Do?
(1) Central bankers can’t do it alone. (2) Four options with drawbacks. (3) What’s the point of QE2? (4) Extending the extended period of ZIRP. (5) IOER is already near zero. (6) Bernanke’s hubris. (7) The unmentionable fifth option. (8) Hooray or last hurrah for profits? (9) More upside in profit margins? (10) A setback for capital spending. (11) A post-incentive depression for housing. (12) More meandering during September and October. (13) Industrious Industrials. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
LuVVy or Tipping Point?
(1) WPP results don’t jibe with global double dip. (2) Was yesterday the tipping point? (3) Record low bond yields. (4) Irish eyes are not smiling. (5) The answer to today’s question is more of the same. (6) Muddling in the US. Booms and busts in Europe. Prosperity for EMs. (7) It’s a mad world when the dollar and yen are the only safe havens. (8) If risk trade is on the ropes, why aren’t commodity prices weaker? (9) Earnings give, while valuation taketh away. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Three Alternative Scenarios
(1) Over there and over here. (2) Up, down, or sideways? (3) What could go right, wrong, or in between. (4) And the winner is? (5) Profits! (6) Analysts’ consensus expectations rising for 2010, and steady for 2011. (7) A concern: NERIs weakened in August as some turned negative. (8) Global oil demand data show plenty of growth in New World, and not much in Old World. (9) Not much heat in Energy stocks. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Death of Equities, Again
(1) New Normal Jeremiahs. (2) The Pimco storyline. (3) Fed endorses the New Normal. (4) Trying to find a positive spin for recent negative US data. (5) A transitory soft patch? (6) Subnormal now, normal later? (7) Latest Eurozone PMIs are still Old Normal. (8) The latest exaggerated report about the death of equities? (9) Everyone is fleeing stocks for bonds. (10) “Get Low” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Good vs. Bad Deflation
(1) More investors are worried about deflation than inflation. (2) The bond market surveys inflationary expectations all day long. (3) OECD inflation near zero. (4) Japan sets a bad example. (5) Productivity is doing good work. (6) NFC productivity has been awesome. (7) Stock investors fretting about bad deflation. (8) How the American Dream turned into a nightmare. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Endless Tug of War?
(1) A good day for the Bulls. (2) Profits are on the Bulls’ side. (3) So is cash available for takeovers. (4) Europe keeps switching sides. (5) Manufacturing refuses to dip. (6) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator isn’t taking sides. (7) Why aren’t banks lending all that cash? (8) Reserves aren’t lendable. (9) Only a few small business owners are complaining about credit. (10) Mixed signals in latest global production data. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bond Bubble?
(1) Are lower bond yields good news or bad news? (2) A dip in Q2’s real GDP? (3) Soft patch. (4) Bond yields fall as Fed downgrades economic outlook. (5) The Fed endorses the New Normal. (6) The downside of ZIRP. (7) Why are Blue Chips underperforming? (8) Fed’s Stock Valuation Model. (9) Fed still cleaning up Greenspan’s mess. (10) At previous meeting, FOMC focused on ways to sell assets. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Bearish Bunch
(1) A good week for the Bears. (2) Census workers bloat jobless claims. (3) Retail sales go up, then down. Up next? (4) Inventory accumulation slowing, but another round of liquidation unlikely. (5) US trade report was great news for foreign exporters. (6) Fed’s latest policy move moves yields down. (7) No slowdown in China’s electricity usage. (8) Some bad news out of Europe. (9) Consumers don’t expect deflation. (10) The Bond Omen. (11) The Hindenburg Omen. (12) Still in a recession? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Big One-Day Drop
(1) Even Wall Street can’t make money in this market. (2) Three reasons why the market was down yesterday. (3) Discounting old news? (4) Investors discount news. Traders trade it. (5) Earning vs. churning money. (6) Companies continue to earn it. (7) The US government is a record breaker. (8) A tiny bit of good news in July’s federal deficit. (9) The key to global prosperity is global trade. (10) Transportation remains on the right track. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
No Exit
(1) Jean-Paul Sartre and Ben Bernanke. (2) Closing the door on exit strategies. (3) More like QE 1.5 than 2.0. (4) An absurd scenario. (5) Sideways is wearing them out in Boston. (6) Questioning the upside breakout scenario. (7) Not much difference between Growth and Value. (8) Sentiment is still bearish, which is bullish. (9) Small business owners remain depressed. (10) Productivity plops after it popped. (11) Financials are cutting their loan loss provisions. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE and Deflation
(1) What about Ben? (2) Reflationists vs. Deflationists. (3) ZIRP and QE vs. deflation. (4) A big myth about bank reserves. (5) The Zimbabwe solution. (6) If all else fails. (7) The dollar is no longer best of a dodgy breed. (8) Commodity prices aren’t confirming weakness in Chinese imports. (9) Despite Q2 positive surprise, analysts aren’t boosting their earnings forecasts. (10) It’s a Materials world. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Three Scenarios
(1) More thrills and chills without the spills? (2) The crash season is coming and will be followed by yearend rally season. (3) Gallup has good news for Republicans. (4) A dozen reasons to be bullish. (5) Finding something good to say about July job market. (6) Real hourly wages at record high, really. (7) Aggregate hours worked rose. (8) Just another jobless recovery? (9) Van Hoisington: The Jedi Master. (10) Jon Laing tells the Fed to print. (11) “Salt” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bipolar Market
(1) Intense mood swings. (2) S&P 500 up and down a lot since late April. (3) Extremely plausible and wrong scenarios. (4) Sideways with lots of volatility for the rest of the summer? (5) “Tail” scenarios are distressing investors. (6) Focusing on the global economy’s signs of strength. (7) New high for global semiconductor sales. (8) Employment indicators confirm labor market is recovering. (9) Lots of forward earnings momentum for Information Technology. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Operation Twist and the Deflation Trap
(1) A whiff of deflation. (2) Extending the extended period. (3) Bullard’s Operation Twist. (4) Bernanke on stopping deflation in 2002. (5) Bernanke's three easing pieces. (6) Investors are dazed and confused by divergence between profits and economy. (7) Bearish sentiment just as bad as during March 2009. (8) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator weakens along with consumer confidence. (9) Contrarian bulls enjoy big gains in euro and pound. (10) A batch of soft indicators confirms soft patch. (11) Auto-related stocks making pit stop. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
More good news. More QE. PMIs
(1) Read all about it: Nine bullish headlines. (2) Business confidence rising with profits. (3) In the long run, we may still be OK 12 months from now. (4) Q2 profits season another winner. (5) China’s secrets. (6) Germany’s revival. (7) Lots of easy credit in bond markets. (8) Big Easy: Fed will decide to stay rather than exit on August 10. (9) Germany’s strong PMI leads the pack. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
GDP. Next Surprise. Asset Allocation. G6 Earnings
(1) Finding some good news in mostly disappointing GDP report. (2) Demand is strong, but output is not. (3) Consumers are still consuming, though at a slower pace on implied rent. (4) Exports are boosting durable goods orders. (5) Policy surprises that could boost stocks. (6) A gift from Fannie & Freddie? (7) Bullard’s twist. (8) What about China and Europe? (9) Individuals like bonds, wary of stocks. (10) Taking some risk during the risky season for stocks. (11) G6 stocks are cheap, especially in Germany. (12) “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (+ +) and “The Girl Who Played with Fire” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Three-Legged Stool
(1) US jobs. European banks. Chinese property. (2) FedEx, DuPont, and Amex report big profits improvement. (3) Profit reports show rising global revenues. (4) Will fiscal austerity throw a wrench into recovery mechanism? (5) Laffer’s consensus scenario. (6) The US economy is bipolar. (7) Less stress in Europe. (8) Chinese puzzle. (9) Consumer confidence zigs and sags in US. (10) Home prices finding a bottom in US. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Two Major Hang-Ups
(1) Roubini, Laffer, and Biggs. (2) No stress in European stress tests. (3) No stress in European economic data. (4) Industrial orders soaring in Europe. (5) How hard will tax hikes hit hard-working people? (6) Expiring Bush tax cuts split Democrats. (7) Will the lameduck session be lame? (8) Another quarter of positive earnings surprises. (9) Lots of forward momentum in Earnings Month. (10) No momentum in home sales. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bullish News. Leading Indicators. Stress Tests
(1) Instant and delayed gratification for the Bulls. (2) Corporate cash is turning bullish. (3) Why Blue Chips might outperform. (4) Six bullish items from Europe. (5) Germany is in a party mood. (6) Debunking weakness in weekly leading indicators index. (7) Did European test takers benefit from grade inflation? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
More on Cash Stash. Fed. Euro. Energy
(1) Lots of good reasons to hoard cash. (2) Lots of good reasons to use it. (3) Cash likely to continue to yield zip because of Fed’s ZIRP. (4) “Europe is looking good.” (5) Overweight DAX. (6) Global oil demand recovery led by New World. (7) Is there any energy in Energy stocks? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Corporate Liquidity Trap?
(1) Is all that cash bullish or bearish? (2) Traumatized by a near-death experience. (3) RIP: Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Oct. 2008-Feb. 2010. (4) How to bring home foreign earnings retained abroad. (5) Bull/Bear Ratio is bullish. FSMI is in limbo. (6) Earnings Month. (7) July’s Net Earnings Revisions were still mostly positive, though less so than June’s. (8) Housing is a drag. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
High-Frequency Trading. Earnings Season. Global Inflation
(1) Algorithms replacing humans. (2) CFTC studies “colocation.” (3) SEC should bring back specialists and Uptick Rule. (4) Despite positive Q2 surprises, analysts aren’t raising their Q3 and Q4 estimates. (5) What’s ahead for stock market rollercoaster? (6) Can inflation and deflation be troublesome at the same time? (7) Unusual decline in US Treasuries held by China. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Inception
(1) Why are investors in a foul mood? (2) Another earnings season of positive surprises. (3) Revenues are rising, but not at banks. (4) Some good news in the labor market...really. (5) The China Pessimists’ Syndrome. (6) A couple of simple and practical solutions to our major problems. (7) For consumers, government is the problem, not the solution. (8) Why is the two-year Treasury yield at a record low? (9) Global production indicators looking strong. (10) Inception (+ +). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Memes
(1) Business execs send White House 54 pages of complaints. (2) CEOs of Verizon and GE are also disgruntled. (3) Business is tough in US, but good overall overseas. (4) Earnings season should confirm business as unusual. (5) Fed endorses “New Normal.” (6) Another 5-6 years of ZIRP? (7) Don’t give up on American consumers. (8) A double dip in inventories is unlikely. (9) Retailers are on sale. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Earnings Season
(1) Was Q1 earnings season a warm-up for Q2? (2) A bullish preliminary conclusion. (3) Railcar loadings bullish for CSX and other Transportation stocks. (4) Global semiconductor orders bullish for Intel and other Tech stocks. (5) Fewer loan loss provisions bullish for Bank stocks. (6) US federal tax revenues rising. (7) US trade will be a drag on Q2 real GDP. (8) Transportation stocks rebounding. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.