Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Reflationists and Others
(1) Dudley and Bryan. (2) The Cross of Gold. (3) More mandate madness. (4) Does the Fed really control inflation? (5) Can the Fed offset the forces of deflation? (6) Is China tightening because the Fed is easing? (7) Dudley claims that QE2.0 isn’t the same as monetizing the government’s debt? Is he kidding? (8) A big conundrum for bond investors. (9) Add Countrywide Gate to Foreclosure Gate. (10) Headwinds for stocks. (11) Earnings Month. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Bells Are Tolling
(1) Hemingway, Donne, Thoreau, and the stock market. (2) Bull markets defy chatter about currency wars and protectionism. (3) The latest death knell for equities. (4) Pensions need better returns than they can get in bonds. (5) Wal-Mart’s big deal. (6) The Greatest Global Boom of All Times is making an impressive comeback after a brief intermission. (7) Are commodity prices rising because of the weaker dollar or stronger global growth? The answer is Yes. (8) Global trade is chugging along. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
A New Black Swan?
(1) Foreclosure Gate is the latest known unknown. (2) Subprime Crisis Part II? (3) Meet MERS. (4) Cleaning up the paper trail. (5) Bad news for securitization. (6) What happens to property rights without title insurance? (7) The worstcase scenario: A tsunami of strategic defaults. (8) Bernanke’s Mandate Madness. (9) Loan loss provisions could rise again. (10) Underweight Financials. (11) Low inflation boosting purchasing power and retail sales. (12) More upside for stocks of Retailers? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Fast Track
(1) Railroads at new high. (2) High on profits. (3) Bernanke’s buy signal. (4) Emerging EMs. (5) China gaps up. (6) The lights are on. (7) New high for intermodal container shipments. (8) Dr. Bernanke takes his own medicine. (9) Flashback. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Facts and Fictions
(1) If the Chinese let the yuan appreciate, will Americans be happier? (2) America has home-grown problems. (3) Are we sure that deflation is always bad? (4) Should the federal funds rate be negative? (5) Is more fiscal stimulus necessary to protect the fat pensions of public employees? (6) Do HFT computers need some adult supervision to avert another flash crash? (7) Investors of last resort. (8) QE is bullish for now. (9) China’s timid tightening. (10) Fed ready to rumble. (11) The Fed's mandate obsession. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Trifecta of Bubbles
(1) Meet Janet Yellen. (2) Monetary policy and macroprudential supervision. (3) Yellen’s Minsky Moment. (4) From the Great Moderation to the Great Recession. (5) Chinese blame Americans for flood of money. (6) IMF sees too much money chasing too few EMs. (7) Investors and Wildebeests: Herding behavior in EMs. (8) A crowded trade. (9) Commodities lead the Trifecta. (10) It’s a Materials world. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Fed Idol
(1) Gone with the wind. (2) Have they lost their minds? (3) Will Bullard win Fed Idol contest? (4) Time to gag the Federal Open Mouth Committee. (5) Gold bulls pick Bernanke as their Fed Idol. (6) When bad news is bullish, beware. (7) Who asked the Fed to tug for us Bulls? (8) Commodities and emerging markets go vertical. (9) What could pop this bubble? (10) Government payrolls are shrinking. Is that good or bad? (11) “Secretariat” (+++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
More Bubbles
(1) Agreeing with Professor Stiglitz. (2) Bernanke’s obsessive compulsive need to avert deflation. (3) A short history of QE-1.0, which was a success. (4) QE-2.0 is more likely to boost the price of gold than employment. (5) The bond bubble could burst soon. (6) Continuing to overweight commodities and stocks. (7) QE can't create jobs in housing industry. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Central Bankers Go Wild!
(1) Steve Martin, Dan Aykroyd, and Ben Bernanke. (2) Spiking the punch bowl. (3) BOJ goes from NZIRP to VZIRP. (4) Ben is ready to boogie. (5) Brian Sack sides with his two bosses. (6) Fed wants Bulls to go wild. (7) The “exit strategy” risk. (8) Commodity prices boosting our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator. (9) Technicians get whipsawed. (10) The economy is looking up. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Doomsday vs. Profit Scenarios
(1) Don Luskin’s 1937 scenario puts DJIA at 5500 by March. (2) Fair trade act could have foul consequences. (3) 53% of Americans say free trade hurts. (4) Adam Smith’s enlightened ideas. (5) Ruin vs. prosperity. (6) Austerity vs. sanity. (7) Keeping score with commodity prices. (8) Consumers of the world, unite! (9) Checking out the three-legged stool. (10) The Chips are down but Tech still has plenty of positive earnings momentum. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Buying Some Time
(1) Stocks bobbing up above flood waters of bad news. (2) The Great Depression was a double dipper. (3) Buddy, can you spare some time? (4) Bill Dudley’s mandate. (5) Louis XVI and Le Deluge. (6) Nancy Pelosi and November 2. (7) Ferguson/Witte study confirms that stocks outperform when Congress adjourns. (8) Eric Cantor predicts: “Things could get messy.” (9) Steve Roach on income in China and the US. (10) For autos, less capacity, more profits. (11) “The Social Network” (+++). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Melt Up Now!
(1) EMs go vertical. (2) A crowded trade? (3) Soaring commodity prices belie global double dip. (4) Chinese PMI and German unemployment do so as well. (5) Is Ben Bernanke the Fed’s Deep Throat? (6) The Federal Open Mouth Committee: Plosser, Kocherlakota, and Rosengren. (7) Serious doubts about QE. (8) The first economist in history. (9) Biblical cycle in housing. (10) The next subprime mortgage crisis. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bad News Bulls
(1) A major nonevent, so far. (2) Melt Up or Meltdown? (3) Eight reasons why the stock market should be going down. (4) So why is it going up? (5) Quantitative easing to the rescue? (6) The canaries are still chirping in the commodity pits. (7) M&A activity is booming. (8) The lost decade for household incomes. (9) So why is real pay per worker at a record high? (10) Market weight for Consumer Staples. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Never Mind. Third Years. Protectionism
(1) Gilda Radner and Ben Bernanke. (2) Survive three hangings, go free. (3) The best is yet to come according to presidential cycle. (4) Presidents walk on water during first two years, and paddle for the last two. (5) Will Obama choose to break the lucky spell for stocks? (6) Analysts are doing it again: Shaving estimates, thus raising odds of positive surprises. (7) Currency devaluations and trade protectionism are in fashion. (8) Commodity prices are the canaries. (9) Capital spending is on Old Normal track. (10) Industrials should continue to outperform. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE and Q.E.D
(1) Three QE scenarios. (2) What if QE does work? (3) What if it doesn’t? (4) Targeting 1250 on S&P 500 by yearend, 1400 next year. (5) Outperforming sectors since July 2 bottom are mostly global cyclicals. (6) Continuing to overweight risky assets. (7) New Keynesian quant models show puny fiscal multipliers compared to old ones. (8) Administration’s economists used an old model (run by guess who?). (9) A very brief history of QE during the 1930s. (10) “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” (-). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Why QE Doesn’t Work
(1) Fed study buries textbook money multiplier. (2) The Treasury’s lap dog. (3) Kohn’s exit speech admits Fed is clueless. (4) In 1988, Bernanke questioned money multiplier model. (5) The fiscal multiplier is also baloney. (6) The administration’s stimulators are jumping ship. (7) Profitable companies, not bloated governments, create jobs. (8) No double dips in Earnings Month. (9) Double dip in consumer sentiment. (10) No recovery in housing industry. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Fed as Tiebreaker?
(1) Endless tug of war? (2) Grand Slams. (3) Zigzagging fundamental and technical indicators. (4) Ben Bernanke keeps tugging. (5) Commodity bulls in the winner’s circle. (6) The Fed’s boilerplate. (7) QE-1.0, QE-1.5, and QE-2.0. (8) Nominal and real yields in 2008 and now. (9) Stocks are cheap. (10) Inflation is bipolar. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Another Sucker’s Rally?
(1) Is 2010 about to end like 2008? No! (2) Capital markets are wide open for business. (3) Record cash on corporate books. (4) Super-stimulative Fed. (5) Midterm elections plus third year of political cycle usually equal double-digit gains for stocks. (6) Net Earnings Revisions Indexes are hot and cold. (7) Global oil demand is hot and cold. (8) Energy has been underperforming, and is due to outperform. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The World Is Round
(1) Cuban socialists fire Cuban workers. (2) Governments are no longer best friends of unions. (3) The trouble with workers’ paradises. (4) Lost and Found Decades. (5) Two alternative history lessons. (6) Summer slowdown for G7 output. (7) IT sector is tops in fundamentals, but overdue to outperform. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Another Lost Decade Ahead?
(1) Losing decades. (2) Fed ready to lose half a decade. (3) Carmen Reinhart examines history of lost decades. (4) New Normal normally happens after financial crises. (5) It was the best of times for Emerging Markets. (6) Stocks may be the new bonds. (7) Growth and Value reunited. (8) A stylized model of the business cycle. (9) Inventories have plenty of upside. (10) Small business owners need customers, not credit. (11) Retailers may have some upside. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bonds vs. Stocks
(1) Read all about it: Bonds are in, stocks are out. (2) A deluge of oversubscribed bond deals. (3) Profits defy deflationary headwinds. (4) Bonds are bullish for stocks. (5) Cash-rich corporate borrowers giving deflation-wary investors what they want. (6) Japan and China have some issues to resolve. (7) The USW files a legitimate trade complaint against the Chinese. (8) Chinese hoarding rare metals. (9) Krugman has a point. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
No Dip in High Frequency Indicators
(1) Rosebud and Lionel. (2) No dips in railcar loadings, though a few categories are stalling. (3) Railcar loadings of chemicals and metals on upswing. (4) Rail shipments related to auto and housing industries have stalled. (5) No dip in electricity output, which is charging up. (6) Estimated jobless claims. (7) Global Boom Bust Barometer rebounding recently. (8) Global output and exports at record highs. (9) Transportation stocks on the fast track. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Whack-a-Mole
(1) Bears, Bulls, and Moles. (2) The Euro-Mess pops up. (3) Strikes in Paris and London. (4) Yield spreads widen. (5) Not a stock picker’s market. (6) Bill Miller makes the case for LargeCaps. (7) The German canary is still chirping. (8) Is the current jobless recovery different from the previous two? (9) Drop in loan loss provisions boosting bank earnings. (10) Financials marking time. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Back To School
(1) Niagara Falls, Lake George, and the S&P 500. (2) Traders accentuating the positives for a change. (3) Earnings estimates remain strong. (4) Sentiment turned extremely bearish a week ago. (5) The financial crisis continues to retreat. (6) Lots of good news around the world. (7) As Chinese wages go up, so do several Asian stock markets. (8) A lackluster employment report for a lackluster jobs recovery. (9) “The Expendables” (-). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Tough Break
(1) No vacation from volatility. (2) Charging Bulls vs. growling Bears. (3) The public is very bullish on bonds, not stocks. (4) The P/E may be repeating 2003/2004 pattern. (5) The Haves and Have-Nots. (6) Pay per worker at record high. (7) Government support at record high too. (8) Social Welfare State of America. (9) Earnings Month full of good news on earnings, but bad news on valuations. (10) G6 earnings picture still looks good, especially in Germany. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.