Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Last Resort
(1) Seeing a pattern: QE-1.0, 2.0, 3.0, and so on. (2) Krugman’s Rule rules. (3) The Fed enables more fiscal excess. (4) The Treasury buyer of last resort. (5) Dudley, Trichet, Weber, and Merkel. (6) The ECB’s stealth QE. (7) Inflation is 100% under control. (8) So why is gold at a record high? (9) Employment is booming around the world with a few exceptions. (10) IT is still one of our overweight recommendations. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Endgame?
(1) Europeans have an identity problem. It’s called “nationalism.” (2) No future for the euro? (3) A bigger bailout fund for Europe? (4) The ECB still has a few moves that may postpone or check the endgame. (5) Sympathizing with the Bears. (6) Stocks had a great week despite lots of disappointments. Why? (7) The Paul Krugmans of monetary policy. (8) QE-3.0: Time to read up on Weimar in the 1920s! (9) Europe’s Bond Vigilantes get some press. (10) Setback for employment optimists and the unemployed. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
A Great Start to the End of the Year
(1) A litany of lugubrious headlines. (2) Lots of really bad news out of Europe. (3) Another financial crisis, another buying opportunity? (4) Central banks will do “whatever it takes” until they can’t. (5) Bill Dudley says QE aimed at lifting stock prices. (6) Overweight yesterday’s outperforming MEI+IT sectors for the rest of the year. (7) Fed’s panic attack unwarranted according to ADP data. (8) Extending the tax cuts. (9) Factories are humming all over the world. (10) Overweight Industrials as global manufacturing continues to boom. (11) Overweight Autos as cyclical recovery gains traction. (12) G6 earnings remain V-shaped. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE Goes Global
(1) The last resort of the lenders of last resort. (2) Jean-Claude jumps the gun. (3) The four caballeros. (4) China’s M2 exceeds America’s by 20%! (5) Ultimate alchemy. (6) Are lead, tin, zinc, and copper rare earth metals too? (7) Robust indicators in US, China, and Germany. (8) More QE is good for gold, and other commodities. (9) US economy leaping over hurdles. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE for PIIGS? Leaks. Energy
(1) Bond Vigilantes more vigilant in Europe than in US. (2) Europeans’ latest schemes haven’t contained contagion. (3) The truth hurts: Angela Merkel wants bond investors to share in bailout costs. (4) Willem Buiter wants ECB to intervene. (5) When will the blank checks bounce? (6) Leaks confirm that the world is spinning out of control, and are bearish for P/E. (7) Forward earnings remains bullish. (8) In November, 22 industries in S&P 500 had record high forward earnings. (9) Energy should continue to perform well. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Turkeys, Ducks, Bulls, and Bears
(1) Not much peace and harmony after Thanksgiving. (2) The Chinese have to muzzle Little Kim. (3) The Europeans are stuck with each other. (4) Are channel checks illegal? (5) Coming in 2013: The European Stabilization Mechanism. (6) If all else fails, will ECB go down QE road? (7) Consumer Discretionary is leading the packs. (8) Profitable companies have always created jobs, and are doing it again. (9) Did the Fed overreact? (10) Jobless claims getting closer to 399,999. (11) Record high for Consumer Discretionary forward earnings. Also for Consumer Staples, Health Care, and IT. (12) Good deflation associated with productivity, prosperity, and profitability. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Thanksgiving. Blessings & Challenges
(1) Counting our blessings. (2) GGBAT back on track. (3) Thanks for the positive earnings surprises. (4) Consumers are doing what they do best. (5) Entrepreneurs and free traders are working hard to promote bountiful economies. (6) China’s aging workers want more and will get more. (7) Should governments get any credit for solving problems they cause? (8) The Founding Fathers. (9) Reagan’s shining city on the hill. (10) Counting our challenges. (11) The mad men in North Korea. (12) Europe’s sovereign debtors. (13) China’s inflation problem. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Gekko and Bernanke
(1) Two days in Toronto. (2) The Loonie is likely to trade higher in 2011. (3) Will PBOC spoil the fun? (4) The world’s QE champs are the Chinese. (5) Those Looney Americans. (6) America is in decline again. (7) Bernanke’s Gekko speech: QE is good. (8) Stir frying the Chinese. (9) Betting against a double dip and on more positive economic surprises out of US. (10) “The Next Three Days” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Fleetwood Mac’s Advice
(1) Clinton’s theme song. (2) A better scenario for tomorrow. (3) What if the jobless recovery turns into a full blown employment recovery? (4) What if inflation gets better in China? (5) What if Europe muddles along? (6) Recklessly stimulative policies may be forced to turn less reckless. (7) Mayhem in the muni market. (8) Why is country music so full of hard luck stories? (9) If housing didn’t have so much bad luck, it wouldn’t have any luck at all. (10) Chinese and US inflation rates moving forward and in reverse. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Jitters Are Back
(1) Unresolved issues in China, Europe, and the US. (2) Don’t fight the PBOC? (3) Chinese blame Fed for higher commodity prices, and buy more of them. (4) The Euro-Mess is messy again. (5) When Irish eyes aren’t smiling. (6) Will the EMU disintegrate? (7) Did the Fed panic unnecessarily? (8) Too many bulls. (9) Bernanke now and then. (10) QE should add 700,000 jobs costing $857,142 each! (11) Global production: The stall that refreshes, or depresses? NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Consequences of Regime Change
(1) The revolt against the ruling elite. (2) The Export President. Earmarks. Deficit Reduction. Bernanke Backlash. Pelosi’s Party. (3) Bernanke’s worst nightmare: Rand Paul. (4) A busy schedule for the lame ducks. (5) More inventories now, less GDP later? (6) Consumer spending is making a comeback. (7) Keen on lots of retailers. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The China Syndrome
(1) Worrying about the stability of the three-legged stool again. (2) Will China tap dance or brake dance? (3) Are the Europeans ready to bail out Ireland? (4) Is the US outlook better or worse after the elections? (5) Will the lame ducks compromise on Bush tax cuts? (6) Some hot and sour Chinese data. (7) China’s QE makes Fed’s effort look like chump change. (8) Underweight Financials. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Export President. Deficit Reduction. Free Trade
(1) A New “One” after the shellacking? (2) Is Barack morphing into Bill? (3) The pro-business President goes to India with an entourage of business execs. (4) The free-trade President. (5) What ever happened to PAYGO? (6) Co-Chairmen of deficit reduction panel go rogue. (7) Pelosi hates it. (8) How about PAYCHOP? (9) Big trade surpluses for China and Germany. (10) Free trade vs. protectionism. (11) Overweight transportation stocks. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE2: The Movie. Reversal Day. Margins
(1) Helicopter Ben is now B-52 Ben. (2) Firework shows are always brightest and noisiest at the finale, and they end with a bang. (3) Its back: A forecast for oil to top $100. (4) Beans in the teens? (5) China taps on the brakes, blames Bernanke for higher prices of commodities, and buys more of them. (6) Commodity prices and stock prices tied at the hip. (7) What about profit margins? (8) The biggest problem for small businesses. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
QE-7.0. Global Backlash. Materials
(1) Seven incredible quarters for earnings. (2) Will stocks correct if QE-2.0 is curtailed? (3) Stocks remain cheap. (4) The three-legged stool is still standing. (5) Purchasing managers, regime change, and QE-2.0. (6) Professor Bernanke lectures students and the world. (7) German Finance Minister says Fed is “clueless.” (8) Bernanke is a long-time advocate of devaluation. (9) FOMC dissidents. (10) Zoellick’s Gold Standard. (11) How much longer can commodity prices and EM currencies go vertical? (12) Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals should be overweighted. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Groupthink
(1) Is the Fed suffering from a social psychological disorder? (2) Eight symptoms of groupthink. (3) Bernanke to foreign critics: “I don’t feel your pain.” (4) The wok is calling the kettle black. (5) German Finance Minister says “Nein” to Ben and Tim. (6) The Bernanke Put: Ben’s play book gives the ball to higher stock prices. (7) The incredible arrogance of macroeconomists. (8) Stocks and commodities going vertical. (9) Will surprising strength in labor markets sink QE-2.0? (10) Real wage rate at record high for the Haves. (11) A shortage of full-time jobs. (12) The Fed’s real agenda may be to boost housing. (13) When Feddie met Fannie and Freddie. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Monetizing the Debt Part II
(1) What are they smoking in California and at the Fed? (2) A few interesting propositions pass and fail in the Golden State. (3) The Left Coast is our Greece. (4) So are a few other state and local governments according to Meredith. (5) QE-2.0 is really MD-2.0. (6) Lipstick on the Fed’s pig. (7) Don’t fight the Fed. (8) Election results should stimulate employment. (9) Muddling Along trumps Double Dip. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Lame Ducks and Gridlock
(1) More power to kill bills. (2) Obama unlikely to make nice with Republicans out to kill ObamaCare. (3) Two more years of Obama and Bush? (4) Carville provided better advice than Emanuel. (5) Unemployment obsession. (6) The magic number for jobless claims is 399,999. (7) “Bargain with the devil.” (8) Another important vote. (9) No more rust in manufacturing. (10) Global semiconductor sales going vertical. (11) IT is it. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
High on America
(1) High in California. (2) Clinton did not inhale. (3) Larry did a heck of a job. (4) Profits soar despite Washington’s meddling. (5) Regime Change Day. (6) ISM’s Employment Index suggests QE-2.0 could be DOA. (7) The Trifecta of Bubbles. (8) How QE-2.0 could burst the bond bubble. (9) Oil joining commodity bubble. (10) Stocks are cheap and should bubble up, unless the bond bubble bursts first. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Bill vs. Ben
(1) The Bond King incites the Bond Vigilantes. (2) What’s the difference between popular QE-1.0 and controversial QE-2.0? (3) Sympathizing with turkeys. (4) Bill Gross says Charles Ponzi was a piker compared to Ben Bernanke. (5) Forecasting the outcomes of six major yearend events. (6) Behind the Republicans’ sweep. (7) The direction of employment surprises. (8) Lame G-20 meeting ahead. (9) A session for lame ducks. (10) Go with the equity flows. (11) Lame GDP. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Oh, Shucks!
(1) Another message from Ben through Jon? (2) Dialing down QE2.0 expectations. (3) The main takeaway: Federal funds rate will remain at zero. (4) Bernanke’s dream and conundrum. (5) Another round of home price declines? (6) Durable goods are volatile. (7) Forward earnings of Industrials remain on strong uptrends. (8) Lots to like among Industrials. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Qualitative Easing In China
(1) Tigers, Dragons, and Bulls in Asia. (2) Vertical stock markets. (3) Chinese Communists offset PBOC rate hike. (4) A people-friendly communiqué. (5) Targeting trade gaps at 4% of GDP. (6) Capital-goods-heavy stock markets at new bull market highs. (7) Confidence deficit. (8) Outperformers and underperformers. (9) Consumer Staples have a few outperformers. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Geithner's Big Fix
(1) The Treasury Secretary has a simple plan. (2) Balancing trade imbalances. (3) The problem is simple. The solution is not. (4) Walking life’s tight rope with and without a safety net in the US and China. (5) The true source of China’s competitive advantage. (6) Different strokes for different folks in China, the UK, France, and the US. (7) The seventh surprisingly good earnings season. (8) The US carry trade carries on with or without QE-2.0. (9) Some Materials industries worth overweighting: Diversified Metals & Mining, Gold, Industrial Gases, and Specialty Chemicals. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Biggest Currency Manipulator
(1) G-20 ministers agree to ceasefire in currency wars. (2) Is the Fed the biggest currency manipulator? (3) McDonald’s is working to serve the Fed with more inflation. (4) Do you want fries with that? (5) Why don’t analysts get it? (6) Hard to model emerging markets in Excel spreadsheets. (7) Latin America is leading the pack. (8) Earnings Month shows broad bull market in earnings. (9) Global cooling according to leading indicators. (10) “Red” (- - -). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Don't Fight the Fed
(1) The QE-2.0 rally. (2) Investments 101. (3) Richard Fisher’s darkest moments. (4) Fisher’s case against more easing. (5) Bubbles are unmentionable at the Fed. (6) The Fed is too US centric. (7) The best-looking horse in the glue factory. (8) The valuation derby. (9) US natural gas usage near record high. (10) New World crude oil demand at another record high. (11) Market weighting Energy. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.