Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Hoarding
(1) Macbeth and Bernanke. (2) Bears and wolves. (3) Egypt and Iran. (4) There is only one democracy in the Middle East. (5) The Brotherhood. (6) Governments hoarding food. Companies hoarding materials. (7) Beware of what you wish for, Ben. (8) Bill attacks Ben again. (9) Costs are becoming an issue for earnings. (10) Public construction remains unstimulating. (11) Employment is booming except in the official data. (12) Downgrading Autos as costs of making and driving them go up.
Professor Copper
(1) Managing money is hard work. (2) An easy way to work less and prosper! (3) Why is the first trading day of the month such a winner? (4) Dr. Copper unfazed by Middle East tumult. (5) Why the divergence between copper and Chinese stocks? (6) Why EMs might underperform this year. (7) Purchasing managers are giddy in US and UK. (8) US durable goods orders show underlying strength. (9) Continue to overweight outperforming Industrials.
“Go Global” or “Come Home”?
(1) Obama’s Carter Moment. (2) There are no jobs on the moon. (3) Did Obama’s Cairo speech embolden dissidents? (4) A civil solution with the army’s backing. (5) Globalization and its discontents. (6) Revolt against corruption. (7) Investors should overweight food, underweight EMs, overweight US. (8) The four legged stool. (9) Muni market getting tougher for borrowers. (10) Europeans still can’t get their act together. (11) China has an inflation problem and too much corruption. (12) A few adds and deletes to asset allocation.
Facebook Revolution
(1) Zuckerberg joins hit parade of revolutionaries. (2) Lots of revolting autocrats and kleptocrats. (3) China’s rulers are nervous. (4) Bunnies revolting against Tigers. (5) Bernanke’s revolutionary role. (6) Was Malthus right after all? (7) Hillary’s exhortation. (8) Higher or lower commodity prices? (9) Saudis will pump. (10) Governments hoarding food. (11) Revenues minus costs equal earnings. (12) GDP following Old Normal script.
The New Abnormal
(1) Big problems still lurking in credit markets. (2) CBO sees record federal budget deficit this year. (3) Washington’s drug dealers plying economy with uppers. (4) Muni bond calendar drying up along with demand. (5) Cleaning up the EuroMess. (6) The ECB’s dual mandates are starting to conflict. (7) MTM and bank earnings. (8) The US economy is a mixed bag.
Obama's Sputnik Moment
(1) Moon walk. (2) Obama’s moment occurred on November 2, 2010. (3) The third year is the charm. (4) The remaking of a President. (5) The nation’s chief investment strategist touts stocks again. (6) Bearish technicals vs. bullish fundamentals. (7) FASB drops proposal to revive MTM. (8) What’s up with commodities? (9) Why is gold down? (10) Continuing to overweight Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals.
Scylla and Charybdis
(1) Gilda Radner’s investment insight. (2) From the dreaded double dip to the ugly head of inflation. (3) From too slow to too fast. (4) Raising rates won’t raise more wheat. (5) However, OPEC could raise oil output. (6) Forward earnings recovery remains V-shaped. (7) Lots of cash driving stock prices higher. (8) Global oil demand at record high, yet no sign of Peak Oil so far. (9) Energy stocks should outperform this year.
Risk On/Off. Leading indicators. Euro Rally
(1) Don’t fight the Fed or the PBOC. (2) No wonder investors are repeatedly flipping the On/Off switch. (3) When financial and economic risks are off, risky assets should be on (and vice versa). (4) Betting on the Fed while worrying about PBOC. (5) MUB rallies on bad news. (6) AFSCME’s Loveless isn’t feeling the love from governors and mayors anymore. (7) LEI predicting better economy and tax revenues. (8) Euro rally suggests risk is going down in Europe.
Fiscal Sanity. Earnings. Inflation
1) Socialists running out of OPM. (2) Bond Vigilantes imposing law and order in euro and muni bond markets. (3) Utah’s solution to pension mess. (4) Spanish savings banks need fixing. (5) EU’s de facto fiscal union. (6) A likely compromise as debt limit approaches. (7) Fed Prez tells the truth about QE-2.0. (8) Bipolar earnings season favors Techs over Financials. (9) China’s inflation problem is everyone’s problem. (10) Count the number of new houses.
Hello Hu! World Trade Booming. Hot Transports
(1) Visit our new blog. (2) Small and big deals. (3) The largest exporter and the biggest lender. (4) China offers easy credit to the world. (5) Technicians are bearish again. (6) From Death Crosses to Golden Crosses. (7) Fundamentals are bullish. (8) Fats Waller and global trade. (9) They have emerged. (10) Still recommending overweighting Airfreight & Logistics and Railroads. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The 2008 Scenario
(1) Bernanke is exuberant about stock market rally, especially among small cap stocks. (2) The Bernanke Put. (3) Governors getting set to battle unions. (4) Commodity price spike creating inflation problem for central banks. (5) Will Financials continue to outperform? (6) Will the euro continue to rally? (7) Sales, inventories, and output indicators showing Old Normal recovery patterns. (8) Retail stocks may need some quiet time. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Global Bipolar Disorder
(1) It’s a small bipolar world, after all. (2) Old vs. New World. (3) Haves vs. Have Nots. (4) Periphery vs. Core. (5) Fully Invested Bears. (6) ForeclosureGate just got worse. (7) The Euro Mess just got messier. (8) Greenspan, Bernanke, and Geithner on global imbalances. (9) The Chinese remain world’s QE champs. (10) What’s holding back the Bond Vigilantes? (11) No dip. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Wild Turkeys
(1) Lots of gobblers. (2) Follow the profits. (3) M&A is getting sexy. (4) More cleanup crews for the Euro-Mess. (5) Parity for the euro? (6) La Niña and Facebook are inciting riots. (7) NJ Governor Christie states the facts. (8) More bulls than turkeys. (9) Commodities suggest 2011 could be more like 2008 than 2010. (10) Materials are a mixed bag. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Unlimited Debt. “Snowplowgate.” Fed Model
(1) Geithner wants debt limit raised now. (2) Paul Ryan says OK. (3) Publicly held federal debt doubled in the past 2½ years. (4) Over $5tn of federal debt is held by the government. (5) Central banks own 43.4% of US Treasuries. (6) All that liquidity explains melt up in commodity prices. (7) Why higher commodity prices are good for profits. (8) The battle between private and public sectors has started on the streets of NYC. (9) The Fed still trusts the Fed Model. (10) Bernanke's big omission. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Aflockalypse Now!
(1) Black Swans in reel and real life. (2) Will 2011 be like 2010 or 2008? (3) The consuming class is emerging in EMs. (4) US economy could swing from New to Old Normal, and back. (5) Europe remains hot and cold. (6) Food and fuel shocks. (7) La Niña leads the flock of Black Swans. (8) The first week of the year. (9) Obama follows third-year script. (10) Meet Bill Daley and Gene Sperling. (11) Disappointing employment report. (12) “Mother” (+ +). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Emerging China. Employment Gains
(1) China emerging as superpower. (2) China has one carrier and one stealth fighter, so far. (3) China coming to EU’s rescue, maybe. (4) China’s safari in Africa. (5) Hu is coming. (6) Global boom not just in manufacturing. (7) Naysayers shoot down ADP report. (8) The profits boom and gridlock should boost employment in 2011. (9) Four sectors with record high earnings now and four with fast growth in 2011. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The FOMC, Uncle Tonoose, and Dudley Do-Right
(1) The FOMC’s know-it-alls. (2) A “fairly high threshold” to be wrong about the economy. (3) The Fed’s groupthink tank can explain why bond yields spiked recently. (4) Next stop 4% for 10-year yield? Probably so. (5) Extending the extended period. (6) The risk-on, risk-off trade. (7) Gold trades inversely with TIPS yield. (8) Net Earnings Revisions Index firmed again in December. (9) Consumers buying cars to get away from homes they can’t sell. (10) Auto-related stocks may continue to outperform. (11) “The Fighter” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Known Knowns of 2011
(1) What do we know? (2) Eight with dates. (3) Investors betting that 19 banks will pass second round of stress tests. (4) Upgrading Financials to market weight. (5) Earnings should be bullish, though progressively less so. (6) Hoenig won’t get to dissent for the record. New FOMC voters might. (7) China’s 12th Great Leap Forward may be its greatest. (8) The March 4 debt deadline. (9) When will QE-2.0 dock? (10) July 1 could be day of infamy for Muni Mess. (11) Global manufacturing booming. (12) Construction remains down and out. (13) “True Grit” (+). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
1500 for the 500?
(1) Will 2011 be a better version of 2010? (2) Global and US Boom Bust Barometers are booming. (3) Europeans working to contain their mess. (4) Chinese working on Little Kim. (5) No matter what happens to QE-2.0, fed funds rate should remain near zero. (6) Corporate profits should continue to drive stock prices higher. (7) Too many bulls? (8) H1 melt-up followed by H2 meltdown? (9) Commodities go vertical. (10) Oil at $120…copper at $8: To be or not to be? (11) Another good year ahead for MEI sectors. (12) The Haves have record real incomes. (13) Meredith Whitney’s lump of coal for municipalities. (14) “The King’s Speech” (+ + +). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Back to the Future
(1) 2010 ends with “Black Swan,” a depressing movie. (2) This year’s Black Swans were mostly bullish. (3) Win some, lose some. (4) Another interesting year ahead. (5) The January Effect is coming. (6) Will “hat-size bond yields” make a comeback? (7) Seven major items that are inflating, not deflating. (8) Rents rising. (9) Leading indicators predicting a good start to the New Year. (10) “Black Swan” (+ +). NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Three-Legged Stool Again
(1) Usually, two out of three ain’t bad. Not in this case. (2) Chinese leaders likely to be inflation prone in 2011. (3) Washington implementing Stimulus II. (4) Fed stymies Bond Vigilantes by purchasing everything the Treasury needs to auction. (5) The Germans are now Europeans whether they like it or not. (6) ECB is Europe’s TARP. (7) Soros has the answer. (8) Global production picture turns mixed. (9) Health Care likely to be market performer in 2011 after underperforming badly in 2010. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
The Death of the Bond Cult?
(1) Is the Old Normal making a comeback? (2) Even New Normal proponents are raising their Q4 and 2011 GDP forecasts. (3) Bond market wants Washington and Fed to cease and desist. (4) Bond vs. stock cults. (5) Too many bulls pulling Santa’s sleigh? (6) Bond Vigilantes fighting the Fed. (7) Bernanke’s incredibly disingenuous interview upsets bond investors. (8) Q4 GDP is looking on the up and up despite inventory drag. (9) Retail sales looking a lot like Christmas. (10) Retailers have more upside. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Hot Metal
(1) Don’t fight the central bank. (2) Are China’s monetary authorities stepping on the brakes, the accelerator, or both? (3) Meet Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s Ben Bernanke. (4) Rare earth metal. (5) Another double for copper? (6) China’s one-child policy boosting wages. (7) The next five year plan should be all about consumers. (8) No slowdown in China’s latest economic and inflation indicators. (9) Still recommending overweight Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Moving Toward the Center
(1) Three seasonal patterns have a bullish history. (2) Is 20% doable by the end of 2011? (3) Obama moves in the right direction. (4) The secular bull market for bonds might be over. (5) Without post-election gridlock, federal deficit widens. (6) Bernanke convinces bond investors that inflation is more likely than deflation. (7) Ron Paul isn’t buying Fed’s act. (8) T-bonds: Why 4% is more likely than 2% in 2011. (9) Exports: The untold story. (10) Trade deal with South Korea may be template for more deals. (11) Still recommending overweighting Transportation stocks. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.
Fully Invested Bears
(1) Everyone agrees: “It will all end badly.” (2) But the next 3-6 months could be OK. (3) QE-1.0 was good for bonds, while QE-2.0 should be bullish for stocks. (4) Extreme sports and extreme policies. Both are death defying. (5) What do they do after they’ve done it all? (6) Worrying about profit margins, munis, and Bond Vigilantes in London. (7) Bonds aren’t following Bernanke’s QE script. (8) Opportunities in the housing industry. NOTICE: Our Morning Briefings are now available on FactSet.