Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
What’s Driving the Economy?
(1) The road vs. the ditch. (2) America’s Day of Rage (November 2, 2010) was bullish for the economy and stocks. (3) QE-2.0 wasn’t necessary, but it has been bullish for stocks and depressed the dollar. (4) Global energy industry should lead manufacturing boom this year. (5) No sign of meltdown in earnings. (6) Net Earnings Revisions Index remained solidly positive in March.
A Dozen Reasons Not to Panic
(1) Lots of nuclear disaster experts. (2) Market resists panic attacks. (3) Millions of Chinese workers get a raise. (4) In US, manufacturing is booming. (5) A super-normal profits recovery. (6) What’s behind the delayed rebound in employment? (7) Warren Buffett’s itchy trigger finger. (8) Don’t fight the G7. (9) Still plenty of fiscal stimulus. (10) Capital spending should be robust. (11) The state of the states is looking better. (12) The sun will rise again.
Apocalypse Now?
(1) Jittery. (2) Disaster bordering on catastrophe for Japan. (3) Bestand worst-case scenarios. (4) Design flaws. (5) From just-in-time to just-in-case. (6) An IT capital spending boom? (7) Will bond yields go up or down after QE-2.0? (8) A simple bond model. (9) US homebuilders remain in a depression.
Fail-Safe
(1) Losing control. (2) Taking huge risks to harness more energy. (3) What do nuclear and financial engineers have in common? (4) Natural vs. man-made disasters. (5) Fuel pools and pools of fools. (6) The S&P 500 remains 8.2% above 200dma. (7) Fires in Japan could cool global inflation, and put a chill on the global economy. (8) Other than all that, there is room for more upside in profit margins.
Resilience vs. Catastrophe
(1) From disaster to catastrophe? (2) Industry analysts remain bullish on earnings. (3) Investors flinched last year. Will they do so again now? (4) QE2.0 boosted expected inflation and P/E. (5) Another all-bets-are-off event? (6) What does Dr. Copper have to say? (7) No meltdown in China’s growth. (8) Is there enough forward momentum in global economy? (9) US consumers aren’t happy when gasoline prices rise. (10) Downgrading Discretionary Retailing to market weight.
The End is Nigh, or Not
(1) Saudi’s Day of Rage fizzles. (2) China’s trade data and Japan’s disaster depress oil price, which should stabilize around $100. (3) Fully Invested Bears in Boston. (4) The ends are not near for Chinese growth, US job gains, the euro’s role, easy money, and fiscal recklessness. (5) Risk-Off last week. Risk-On this week? (6) $100 oil should be bullish for Energy stocks. (7) Grain prices may stop sprouting for a while. (8) Global inflation may ease along with food and fuel prices. (9) Upgrading Financials to market weight. (10) Governors show Washington how to do fiscal discipline. (11) The state of the states should be very good later this year. (12) Hard to see a slowdown in China with millions of workers getting a big pay raise. (13) World exports at record high. (14) Still recommending overweighting Transportation stocks.
Another Day of Rage Tomorrow
(1) Despite $100 oil, investors fretting less about double dip than in 2010. (2) Plenty of oil around, as speculators grab 78% of US inventories. (3) Will Saudi dissidents be protesting or shopping in downtown Riyadh tomorrow? (4) Old Normal vs. New Normal one more time. (5) Super Normal earnings recovery is bullish for S&P 500 sectors. (6) Valuations are still attractive. (7) Where did all the infrastructure bucks go?
Happy Anniversary!
(1) The bull rarely flinched over the past two years. (2) Another scare, another buying opportunity? (3) Large speculators load up on oil futures contracts. (4) A couple of Days of Rage ahead in Riyadh. (5) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator remains bullish. (6) Small business owners are seeing the recovery, finally. (7) Remaining underweight in Financials.
Geo vs. Domestic Politics
(1) Is the third year of the presidential cycle still the charm? (2) Lots of new fiscal stimulus as old stimulus terminates. (3) Current third year closely tracking an average of the past 14 third years. (4) Boom-Bust scenarios. (5) Charles Dumas says 100% depreciation allowance will boost, then bust the expansion. (6) The IRS disagrees. (7) Consensus bottom-up earnings estimates remain remarkably stable. (8) On second thought: Lowering Information Technology to market weight.
The Chinese Masses
(1) China’s autocrats are on edge. (2) China’s Conundrum: More prosperity means higher prices. (3) Wen says he feels the people’s pain. (4) Appreciating the yuan. (5) IMF and USDA see protracted period of tight grain supplies. (6) The problem is that yield growth is slowing. (7) Asset Performance Review: Remaining cautious and adding Health Care to Overweights. (8) Labor market following Old Normal script, except for dropouts.
Watch Out for Divergences
(1) Two big questions for investors. (2) Another period of volatile sideways action ahead? (3) Gaddafi likely to fight to the death. (4) Watch out if higher oil prices lead to lower industrial commodity and stock prices. (5) Bernanke ready for QE3.0 if necessary. (6) The Bond King is ready for higher yields. (7) Romer ready for QE3.0 and beyond! (8) Employment indicators are mostly green. (9) Auto sales may get stuck at the gas station. (10) Underweight Autos.
Rage, Outrage, and Caution
(1) Revisiting $150 a barrel? (2) Global economy could slip and dip on higher oil price. (3) If markets hate uncertainty, they must loath chaos. (4) Day of Rage in Riyadh. (5) Day of Rage needed in DC. (6) Is cutting the growth in spending a spending cut? (7) Fed Chairman disses Goldman’s and Moody’s studies. (8) Bernanke’s dangerous blind spot. (9) Time for caution: Feshbach says sell rallies. (10) Are the leaders having a breakdown? (11) PMIs are remarkably robust. (12) Industrials could get hit in the near term, but outperform for the year.
To Have and Have Not
(1) The first economist was Joseph. The second was Malthus. (2) Excellent report on food in The Economist. (3) Host of problems for global food supply. (4) Stocks provide a positive wealth effect. (5) The bull market in earnings continues. (6) Wages and salaries at a record low 50.6% of personal income. (7) Housing continues to provide a negative wealth effect.
Crude World
(1) It’s a cruel crude world after all. (2) Oil mixes easily with autocrats and kleptocrats. (3) Precedent Putin. (4) Daffy Gaddafi’s successor likely to be chaos. (5) Can the Saudis provide an oil change? (6) $1 at the gasoline pump = $150bn tax hike. (7) Summer driving season is coming. (8) EMs are still underperforming. (9) Outperforming assets still energy-related. (10) GDP prospects aren’t rosy. (11) “Unknown” (+).
Oil and turmoil
(1) Military force leads to force majeure. (2) Clans and tribes in Libya. (3) Saudis ready to pump more oil and dollars to buy peace. (4) Meet Egypt’s Ayatollah. (5) A flock of troubles. (6) The oil bill is rising. (7) Continue to overweight Energy. (8) Oscars.
The Fifth Price Revolution
(1) Four great waves of inflation in history. (2) A Neo-Malthusian view of inflation. (3) Food and fuel always lead prices higher. (4) The five stages of Price Revolutions. (5) Bernanke should read Fischer’s book. (6) Mark Twain’s history lesson. (7) Why is consumer confidence rebounding in the US? (8) More strong business surveys. (9) Protracted tribal war over oil likely in Libya. (10) Risk Off may be on for a while. (11) Earnings Month: The beat remains upbeat.
Chaos Theory
(1) Risk/reward ratio rising along with chaos in the Middle East. (2) Past glories. (3) The bull market scores 100% over the past two years. (4) Another 12% over the rest of the year? (5) The fifth Price Revolution. (6) Secular autocrats more likely to be replaced by religious or military autocrats than by democrats. (7) China’s autocrats are stifling protests. (8) G20 imbalances. (9) Madison, Greece. (10) Asset Performance Review: Underweight Consumer Discretionary. (11) The Butterfly Effect: Can the death of a salesman in Tunisia cause a global recession? (12) Gasoline prices and other leading indicators.
Civil Disorder
(1) The Mullahs need a diversion. (2) Egypt’s revolution morphs into disruptive labor strikes. (3) Iraqis want democracy too. (4) Geopolitical incidents have been bullish for stocks, but turmoil may not be so. (5) Overweight Oil and Gold until the sand settles. (6) The risk in the Middle East is more civil disorder. (7) Good governments don’t necessarily replace bad ones. (8) Betting on the global boom, for now, but watching out for oil price spike. (9) A debate at the FOMC meeting. (10) Housing’s foundation remains weak.
Wok and Roll!
(1) China’s economy is still sweet, but inflation is turning sour. (2) Column A or B? (3) China’s exports and imports are on fire. (4) PBOC targets 16% growth in M2. (5) CPI revisions put less weight on food, more on rent. (6) Appreciating the yuan and only. (7) Fully Invested Bears. (8) The New Abnormal. (9) The Have Nots have less purchasing power. (10) Will retail sales weather the weather? (11) Sticking with our overweights among the Retailers.
Disorderly Conduct
(1) The revolutionary party is over. (2) Gridlock in Tunisia. (3) The army is on standby. (4) Wheat prices up again. (5) Food fight in Bolivia. (6) Analysts see higher margins. What are they smoking? (7) Cutting the swelling budget deficit in half would be swell. ((8) Central banks financing Washington’s deficit addiction. (9) Is QE2 discriminatory? (10) Plosser’s critique. (11) Estimating the “New Normal” natural rate of unemployment.
Overweight Inflation
(1) DMs outperforming EMs on geopolitical tensions. (2) Dictators: Two down, many more to go. (3) Iran’s Mad Mullahs are hanging. (4) North Koreans starving. (5) Overweight inflation. Underweight deflation. (6) Tracking the Presidential Cycle. (7) Asset Performance Review favors cyclicals in DMs. (8) S&P 500 Transportation at another record high. (9) Euro facing renewed challenges. (10) Exports are booming almost everywhere. (11) Continuing to overweight Transportation stocks.
Let Them Eat Cake
(1) Malthus is back. (2) More food price shocks. (3) Drought in China. (4) Let them eat pita. (5) Food shortages pose greatest risk to global growth. (6) Central banks can’t grow corn, but can they create jobs? (7) Paul Ryan and Ron Paul have issues with the Fed. (8) Allowing states to declare bankruptcy would be a bad idea. (9) Small business owners are feeling better. (10) Dunkelberg’s diatribe. (11) LargeCaps vs. SMidCaps.
The Death of Bonds?
(1) Sensational news. (2) Inflation fears intensify. (3) The Bad Earth: A glut of droughts and a shortage of wheat. (4) More challenges for EMs. (5) What’s driving US stock prices higher? (6) The Bull-Bear Ratio is having a correction. (7) Buybacks are back in fashion. So is M&A. (8) Is the long-term bull market over for bonds? (9) Ron Paul raises an interesting question about the Fed. (10) IT should outperform this year.
Productivity Forever
(1) The dreaded 3D scenario of debt, deflation, and depression. (2) The happy 3P scenario of productivity, profitability, and prosperity. (3) Cost cutting isn’t forever, but productivity can be. (4) Revenue growth making a Rocky (Balboa) comeback. (5) While raw materials costs rise, labor costs remain subdued. (6) Good vs. bad deflation. (7) China tightens again.
Global Liquidity Supply
(1) A website for social networking revolutionaries. (2) The (Muslim) Boys in the Hood. (3) A guide to falling dominos. (4) Ben’s hang-up with foreigners. (5) Trichet wimps out. (6) Bullish for commodities: Global Liquidity Supply soaring to new highs. (7) Monday’s APR (Asset Performance Review). (8) The euro rally may be over. (9) Employment indicators are a mixed bag. (10) “The Company Men” (+).