Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Meltdowns and Melt-Ups
(1) Why did commodity prices crash? (2) Theory of Gravity. (3) Let’s ask Professor Copper. (4) A drop in oil’s turmoil premium. (5) Are the Greeks staying or going? (6) A break in the speculative fever is healthy. (7) Relief for drivers and central bankers. (8) Ben might have been right about “transitory.” (9) Lots of melt-ups in stocks. (10) A whopping employment gain. (11) “Inside Job” (+).
Soft Patch?
(1) Why is the bond yield falling? (2) Bond yield and nominal GDP growth. (3) Range bound. (4) A mixed bag of indicators. (5) A big drop in nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index. (6) A big increase in Monster Employment Index. (7) Assessing the near-term prospects for stocks. (8) Still recommending overweighting lots of Industrials.
Geronimo!
(1) Barack Obama, John Wayne, and Geronimo. (2) E KIA. (3) Obama’s reelection more likely. (4) Muammar’s turn to depart, dead or alive. (5) Commodity and stock prices feeling gravitational pull of their 200-dmas. (6) Our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator is stalling. (7) Second Slowdown Scenario confirmed by April auto sales. (8) Americans stuck at home are spending more to renovate.
Saddle Up!
(1) Barack Obama and John Wayne. (2) The death of a terrorist. (3) Will Qaddafi get the message? (4) Leading from in front. (5) Are Israel’s cowboys saddling up too? (6) Stay long Energy. (7) Bernanke’s Mission Accomplished: Deflation averted. (8) Will rent lead consumer inflation higher? (9) The bull market in earnings continues. (10) The global manufacturing boom continues despite parts shortages. (11) Market weighting IT, though overweighting Computer Hardware.
Fibers In Kansas & Texas
(1) Fully invested bears riding the bull. (2) Fed remains committed to ZIRP. (3) Less concern about end of QE-2.0. (4) Q1 real GDP led by 9% jump in manufacturing. (5) So why are jobless claims over 400,000 again? (6) Oil-soaked autocrats have been depressing the dollar. (7) The decline in the dollar reflects the decline in the US as a global power. (8) Osama bin Laden meets John Wayne. (9) Parts shortages and high pump price could dampen growth for two more quarters. (10) Real GDP could jump during Q4. (11) Stepping on capital spending’s accelerator. (12) Less income from wages and more from government borrowing.
Meet the Press
(1) The Fed: friend or foe? (2) A friend to those who aren’t in need. A foe to those who are. (3) Extending the extended period, which is defined as two meetings. (4) Thumbs up for QE-2.5. (5) A very brief history of QE. (6) It’s really all about ZIRP. (7) A mixed message on QE-3.0. (8) MEI in the winners’ circle under QE2.0. (9) Housing is still a big loser.
Consumer Confidence and Stocks
(1) The Limo Driver Survey. (2) Jobs are still hard to get, but less so. (3) Gallup Poll is more downbeat. (4) Confidence diverging between stock investors and consumers and between Haves and Have-Nots. (5) Will consumer spending stall in May? (6) Long PPI. Short CPI. (7) Underweighting Consumer Discretionary stocks. Overweighting MEI. (8) Earnings Month showing plenty of forward momentum in April. (9) Market weighting Consumer Staples.
Stocks, Bonds, & QE-2.5
(1) It’s official: The WSJ says the global boom is driving earnings and stock prices higher. (2) The front-page curse? (3) Will the ninth quarter of positive surprises be the ninth inning for the bad-news bulls? (4) QE-2.0 liquidity has been lifting earnings along with valuations. (5) QE-2.5 is next with no change in ZIRP. (6) Trading range for bonds. (7) Global exports boom charging up earnings. (8) Bernanke speaks. Markets listen. (9) Second slowdown ahead? (10) “Source Code” (-).
Oil, Gold, and Superpower
(1) A dream scenario. (2) Waking up to a nightmare scenario in the Middle East. (3) From bipolar to uni-polar to multi-polar. (4) The President knows it all about oil. (5) Are the Saudis maxed out? (6) Can we count on sweets from Nigeria? (7) A hint of “demand destruction” in the oil patch. (8) Another double for gold? (9) Are Energy stocks running out of energy?
The Mighty Bull
(1) James Carville's bull. (2) Earnings matter most. (3) The bull feeds on bad news, and spits out the seeds. (4) Latest litany of troubles: Same old and a few new ones. (5) The Chinese authorities are on edge. (6) Equities are still out of favor. (7) No end in sight to housing depression.
Bombshells and Bonds
(1) Irony of Life. (2) A negative outlook for US debt. (3) Nikola Swann's Black Swan. (4) Democrats and Republicans agree on $4 trillion in cuts, not on details. (5) Ironically, S&P had a big role in US debt debacle. (6) PBoC Governor has had enough. (7) Bill Gross wants higher yields. (8) An ugly contest among sovereigns. (9) QE-2.5. (10) Impressive earnings. (11) Their inflation is their fault.
Dancing Again
(1) The Prince Principle. (2) M2 soaring in China. (3) The PBoC taketh and giveth. (4) Big increases in small wages worsen China inflation outlook. (5) The Let's Party Party. (6) Commodity prices are up in all currencies. (7) The dollar is down against most currencies. (8) Dancing with Bulls. (9) Manufacturing is the winner. (10) "The Conspirator" (+ +).
Leviathan
(1) What are governments for? (2) King Abdullah needs at least $88 a barrel. (3) Food and fuel subsidies are on the menu again. (4) Oh no, another record budget deficit this year! (5) Fed financed 70% of federal budget from Nov-Mar. (6) Thomas Hobbes was right and wrong. (7) Both sides agree that deficits need to be cut by $4 trillion. Disagree on how to do it. (8) Growth vs. Value Valuations. (9) Retail sales fall flat, as retail prices surge. (10) Still recommending market weight for Retailers.
Oil & Transportation Stocks
(1) $150 bad. $100 good. (2) Large Speculators are soaked in oil. (3) French want position limits. (4) CFTC working on new spring collection of rules. (5) S&P Transportation Index in record high territory. (6) A good break for Consumer Discretionary stocks too. (7) Global indicators continued to boom in January. (8) Trade will subtract from Q1 GDP. (9) Continuing to overweight Transportation stocks.
Positive Surprises?
(1) Bulletproof earnings forecasts. (2) Resilient valuations. (3) Q1 estimate cuts set stage for positive surprises? (4) Are higher commodity prices good or bad for profits? (5) QE-2.5? (6) Janet Yellen explains it all. (7) Richard Fisher dissents. (8) Another stress test of the resilience of the global boom. (9) The IMF forecasts often. (10) Germany at the epicenter of global boom. (11) High on Materials.
Bulletproof?
(1) Getting hotter in the Middle East. (2) Higher oil prices depressing the dollar, which is lifting commodity prices. (3) Gold as a hedge against failing states. (4) Israel’s Iron Dome leading to Cast Lead II? (5) Might Egypt acquire Libya? (6) Egypt, Syria, and Iran need a distraction. (7) Energy stock prices losing momentum? (8) Bulletproof stock market? (9) Risk on and off last week. (10) Low volume and high bullishness. (11) Bulletproof consumer?
Gold & Reckless Governments
(1) The consequences of governments gone wild. (2) While tightening monetary policy, China inflates wages. (3) Is Washington incapable of fiscal discipline? (4) Just go ahead and default already! (5) How do you say “mañana” in Rio? (6) BOJ douses Japan with liquidity. (7) Lots of gold charts. (8) Are analysts too optimistic on profit margins? (9) Are there enough chips to keep manufacturing going? (10) Large Cap IT should be a market performer this year.
Don’t Fight Central Banks
(1) Will central banks exit their New Abnormal policies? (2) Can the global economy take it? (3) The FOMC Debating Society. (4) The ECB is expected to open the exit door tomorrow. (5) No change at the BOE. (6) Another round of QE from the BOJ. (7) PBOC tightening not doing much so far. (8) Brazil postpones the fight against inflation. (9) Too many bulls! (10) More on LargeCaps vs. SMidCaps. (11) Autos are U-shaped. Construction is L-shaped. (12) Mostly underweighting Autos.
More Positive Earnings Surprises
(1) Nine in a row? (2) Hard to model global boom in earnings spreadsheets. (3) In the past, analysts were too optimistic. (4) Global PMIs are bullish for Q1-2011 earnings season. (5) NERI and PMI. (6) Lost decade? Not for SMidCaps. (7) Record high earnings for SMidCaps. (8) Global PMIs remained remarkably strong through March. (9) Supply disruptions bound to hurt for a few months.
Middle East Getting Hotter
(1) Reminiscing about the Cuban Missile Crisis. (2) Bad news as background noise. (3) Risk of more war rising in Middle East. (4) Democracy or theocracy in Egypt? (5) The Israelis are getting nervous. (6) Libya is a sideshow. Iran is the main act. (7) Pakistan and Turkey going the wrong way. (8) A very good week for some of our favorite asset classes. (9) Brazil will live with higher inflation for a while longer. (10) Old Normal making a comeback in US labor market. (11) “Lincoln Lawyer” (++).
LILO vs. FIFO
(1) Individual investors dipping back into equity pool. (2) The bond-buying binge is over. (3) 401(k) participants are truly long-term investors, not short-term traders. (4) Individuals went global at the right time. (5) The Dating Committee didn’t match the unemployed with jobs. (6) November 2 election results boosting employment. (7) OPEC pumps more oil to fill in for Libya. (8) No pause for global oil demand. (9) President Obama is full of energy. (10) Energy is our top pick.
Hazmat & Stocks
(1) Amazon has protective gear for investors. (2) The market is geared up for hazardous duty. (3) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator is our Geiger counter. (4) Commodity prices and canaries. Both are still chirping. (5) Municipal finances turning less toxic. (6) Double tops for consumer stocks? (7) Earnings Month still looking good. (8) Consumer confidence, home sales, and house prices are all down.
Panic Buttons and False Alarms
(1) The reset button is still working for the Bulls. (2) Assessing known threats. (3) Five for the panic list. (4) Hot Spots: Japan, Europe, the Middle East, Washington, and the Fed. (5) The global impact of local German elections. (6) Ireland is stressed again. (7) Iron Dome in Israel. (8) Earnings are from Mars. Valuations are from Venus. (9) Earnings Month. (10) Working stiffs are doing alright, but they are a diminishing breed.
Record Breaking Cash Flow
(1) Welcome to Paradise. (2) The stock market springs forward after a couple of cold winter setbacks. (3) The best of a dozen reasons to be optimistic. (4) Commerce Department reports record corporate profits, retained earnings, and cash flow. (5) 100% depreciation should boost cash flow this year. (6) Risk-On week. (7) Energy at top of asset performance ranking. (8) Funky numbers for GDP.
Spring Vacation
(1) Black Swans come and go. (2) They’ve been bad, but not all that bearish over the past two years. (3) Sideways with less volatility for a while? (4) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator still on solid uptrend. (5) Industrial commodity prices have stalled recently near record highs. (6) Dr. Copper is hanging out. (7) Bull/Bear Ratio is correcting. (8) Global inflation remains bipolar.