Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Writing on the Wall
(1) Another volatile month. (2) Can China fix Europe? (3) Can Europe fix Greece? (4) Can another emergency meeting fix anything? (5) Another AIG Moment for European banks. (6) October’s earnings season could have some negative surprises. (7) PMI says consensus earnings growth forecast too high. (8) Where did all the infrastructure money go? (9) Auto recovery is weak.
Spinning Out of Control?
(1) Lowering our yearend S&P 500 target to 1150. (2) Rising risks of recession in Europe. (3) Still underweighting Financials and overweighting Energy. (4) Watching gold and the US dollar as indicators of out-of-control governments spinning out of control. (5) Is the Euro-Mess spinning out of control? (6) Blaming Paul Samuelson for all of our problems. (7) Macroeconomists are dangerous. (8) If at first you don’t succeed, do more of the same. (9) ARRA-Lite. (10) No soft patch in China. (11) “The Guard” (+ +).
QE-2.75
(1) Deep Throat. (2) A brief history of QE-1.0 through QE-2.5. (3) Keeping busy at the Fed. (4) Running out of sticks and stones. (5) Eric Rosengren’s twist on Operation Twist. (6) Bill Gross says Fed’s policies are twisted. (7) Sabers are rattling in the Middle East. (8) Old sores and new weapons. (9) The Arab Winter. (10) No summer vacation for P/Es. (11) Paying a premium for stable stocks. (12) Still market weighting IT.
The Health of Nations
(1) Socialism and mental health. (2) Why are so many Europeans so depressed? (3) Maggie Thatcher’s most splendid forecast. (4) Keynesian fairy tale. (5) Did QE-2.0 create or kill jobs? (6) Obama’s ARRA-Lite. (7) Some good news out of Europe. (8) Some good news in the US. (9) Sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish. (10) Global purchasing managers are still in the soft patch.
“Frustrating”
(1) September should be like August, if we are lucky. (2) S&P 500 likely to retest August 8 low. (3) Obama’s stock is making new lows. (4) Obama needs to find his groove with Simpson-Bowles. (5) Everyone is fed up in Europe and with Europe. (6) Hostile reaction suggests that Christine Lagarde is spot on about recapitalizing banks. (7) The Fed’s new policy tool: Two-day FOMC meetings. (8) Chinese trying to kill inflation-breathing dragon. (9) US government trying to kill US banks? (10) Underweighting Financials may continue to be a good idea. (11) A very short list of upbeat employment indicators. (12) “The Debt” (+).
Endgame?
(1) No time off for HFT computers. (2) No end to the game? (3) Muddling along beats the alternatives. (4) Global measures of confidence sink to recession lows. (5) Still growing in Asia. (6) Sentiment increasingly bearish on stocks. That’s bullish. (7) Lots of bad ideas for fixing housing industry and one good one.
Powerless
(1) Power failures. (2) Bernanke has lost his spark. (3) Trichet never had any spark. (4) Angela Merkel isn’t charged up about rescuing PIIGS. (5) Germany’s Supreme Court could blow Europe’s fuse. (6) Obama gets a new economist with an old idea. (7) Industry analysts are starting to flinch. (8) Rooting for a long soft patch. (9) Capital spending strong, but manufacturing indicators turn weak. (10) Earnings Month shows bullish earnings and bearish valuations.
Hurricane Season
(1) September can be stormy too. (2) Why is the DAX so BAD? (3) European banks are the new storm center. (4) Trichet’s half-hearted rescues. (5) As he runs out of tools, Bernanke admits he can’t fix it all. (6) Lagarde is on guard and wants to recapitalize European banks with European TARP. (7) Everyone agrees that US housing still needs to be fixed. (8) New Homestead Act is under construction. (9) Profits growth outpaces GDP. (10) “Sarah’s Key” (+ +).
Earthquake
(1) Getting the shakes in Virginia and on Wall Street. (2) Fundamentals are shaky. (3) Lots of fault lines in technical geology. (4) Manufacturing indicators swaying towards recession. (5) The shock waves hit Richmond, Philadelphia, and New York. (6) The epicenter of the economy’s earthquake. (7) Earnings Month.
More Downward Revisions
(1) The best of the worst scenarios. (2) Lowering estimates for earnings along with growth rates for global economy. (3) The Catch 22 in debt-to-GDP ratios when they get too high. (4) Europe may be in a growth recession already. (5) Will bear market in valuation kill bull market in earnings? (6) Rogoff says we are in a depression and favors an inflation cure. (7) No wonder gold is at a record high.
Weight of the Evidence
(1) More leading indicators pointing toward recession. (2) Real GDP growth likely to be 2%. (3) Misleading leading indicators. (4) Lots of liquidity in Liquidity Trap. (5) High yield spread more reliable (and worrisome) than Treasury yield spread. (6) Soft patch through yearend. (7) Lehman II, III, or Not? (8) The end-of-theroad scenario in the FT. (9) Can Ben keep his promise to Milton? (10) So what do we do now? (11) Gold and Treasuries are overbought, while stocks are cheap.
Dog Days of Summer
(1) Lots of barking. (2) Buffett is yelping. (3) Magical Misery Tour. (4) The President has a plan. (5) Congressman Ackerman has a better one. (6) Fixing the economy in one dog day. (7) Political leaders leading P/Es lower. (8) High-yield bond spread is ominous. (9) Housing badly needs to be fixed.
High Frequency Trading (HFT)
(1) Does HFT increase or decrease volatility? (2) Too many markets reduce liquidity and transparency. (3) Pinging, flickering, and stuffing. (4) The CFTC raises, but does not resolve colocation question. (5) Blue Monday was record day for HFTs. (6) Low Frequency Traders turned off. Can‟t be good for P/Es. (7) US production coming out of soft patch. (8) Not giving up on overweight rated Industrials.
Insiders Are Buying
(1) Last week never happened. (2) The valuation roller coaster. (3) Billy Joel says we didn‟t start the fire. (4) Why haven‟t unnerving headlines unnerved the market more? (5) Politicians are bad for confidence, while CEOs are good for it. (6) S&P 500 forward earnings at new high last week. (7) Corporate insiders responding to selling panic with a buying panic. (8) Is the US going down the same road as Japan? (9) The global trade picture is mixed. (10) Intermodal loads near record high: A railcar named “Desire.” (11) After getting run over, we are still overweighting Transportation stocks.
Last Week‟s 10 Positives
(1) Team Obama wants to get rid of unsold homes. (2) Puerto Rico‟s Governor has a great idea. (3) A review of last week‟s good news for those who missed it. (4) Panic selling and buying getting us nowhere fast. (5) Retail sales coming out of soft patch, while confidence sinks into the mud. (6) China and India are still hot and spicy. (7) Euro-Mess less messy in Italy and Spain for now. (8) ZIRP forever. (9) The tax reform option. (10) Two big worries: Banks and junk spreads. (11) The crisis of confidence. (12) Retailers on sale: Some market weights and a couple of underweights.
To Panic or Not to Panic
(1) The other side of the story: “Eight Reasons to Panic.” (2) The bubble in government is bursting. (3) Ignore the policymaker behind the curtain. (4) Bernanke can’t keep his promise. (5) Profits up, valuation down. (6) CEOs in a panic to buy their shares. (7) Technical breakdowns and benchmarks. (8) Another recession would be really bad for federal deficits. (9) A plan to boost growth by exempting rental income from taxation.
The Da Vinci Code Again
(1) Tom Hanks and me. (2) 666 then and 6.66 now. (3) Panic bottom finding support at last year‟s panic top. (4) Wicked corrections. (5) Lots of bearish concerns. (6) Fed‟s Super ZIRP aimed at converting cash to trash for another two years. (7) Carry traders are most welcome. (8) The “Never Mind” scenario. (9) Fred Smith‟s FedEx planes aren‟t stalling. (10) China is still growing. (11) Americans are still shopping. (12) Small business owners still depressed, but hiring some workers.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
(1) Don’t Panic Memo. (2) S&P goes wild in the Dark Side. (3) Slapping BAC. (4) Investors downgrade valuations as S&P downgrades US. (5) Robert Gates, Barney Frank, Gary Cooper, and P/Es. (6) Barack & Jimmy. (7) 2008, 1987, or something else? (8) Industry analysts aren’t in a panic. (9) Contagions now and then. (10) The ECB and Hamlet. (11) Still underweighting challenged and challenging Financials sector.
Don’t Panic
(1) Crisis of confidence. (2) Another panic, and another list of reasons not to panic. (3) The end of resilience. (4) Europe’s bailout fund needs help. (5) The ECB is learning to live with junk. (6) Stall speed: US economy isn’t a jumbo jet. (7) Bernanke’s tool box. (8) Boosting the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio with tax reform. (9) The upside for profits in a slow-growing world. (10) Lots of cash earning bubkes. (11) The technicians see crashes in all their charts. (12) S&P downgrades Treasuries, while investors downgrade P/Es. (13) Employment looking up from below. (14) Super PMIs still in the soft patch.
Respect & Valuation
(1) Lowering our S&P 500 target to flat for the year. (2) Rodney Dangerfield and valuation. (3) A brief geopolitical history of the S&P 500’s P/E. (4) A round-trip from Carter to Obama? (5) An inverse relationship between gold’s real price and stock valuation. (6) Political leaders gone wild. (7) What will Bernanke do for an encore? (8) Despite booming profits, employment indicators remain anemic.
Litany of Bad News
(1) Panic attacks. (2) Deteriorating technical picture. (3) Europe is still a mess. (4) US budget battle isn’t over. (5) Democrats still pushing for more taxes. (6) The Divine Dozen likely to deadlock. (7) Double dip risks rising. (8) Running out of antidepressants. (9) Extending the sideways forecast into August. (10) The tallest building curse. (11) Did bubbles burst in the labor market too? (12) Good news: July auto sales rose a bit.
Soft Patch or Mud Pit?
(1) Short-lived relief rally. (2) Bears growling about “stall speed.” (3) S&P 500 revenues up 3x faster than nominal GDP! (4) Earnings are flying, not stalling. (5) The 1930s on Prozac? (6) Running out of antidepressants. (7) Back to (the new) normal. (8) Bearish cover stories. (9) Depressing news must have depressed purchasing managers in July. (10) No more games of chicken, for a while at least. (11) A review of July’s bad batch of PMI data.
The Economy Needs a Fix
(1) A new deal for housing industry, the epicenter of the recession. (2) Time to slash profits repatriation tax and use the money to subsidize down payments. (3) Another idea: Tax-free rental income. (4) First half’s GDP confirms that QE-2.0 didn’t work. (5) Alarmists on full alert about stall speed. (6) Auto production should soon boost economy. (7) Are state & local governments done retrenching yet? (8) Raising the debt ceiling should be good for another relief rally. (9) Still aiming for 1500 for the 500. (10) Worrying a little about Industrials. (11) “Snow Flower and the Secret Fan” (++).
X Games
(1) Dangerous games in LA and DC. (2) It’s not business, its personal: Lawmakers will pass debt ceiling so they can leave for their August recess. (3) The view from across the pond. (4) A very good deficit reduction plan is available. (5) My resume: Coined “Bond Vigilantes” and introduced skateboard to East Coast. (6) Not so disappointed by disappointing Beige Book and new orders. (7) Key measure of capital goods spending at cyclical high. (8) Still market weighting IT with overweight on Computer Hardware and underweight on Communications Equipment.
Gridlock
(1) Acrimonious debate. (2) Is gridlock bullish or bearish? (3) A brief civics lesson. (4) Record deficit proves that gridlock didn’t work. (5) But it is working all too well now. (6) Washington’s political paralysis could be bad news for economy. (7) Will safe havens be safe if there is a deal? (8) The most likely scenario is a deal on debt and no deal on deficit. (9) A longer soft patch? (10) Firing vs. hiring. (11) Waiting for home prices to bottom.