Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Silly Season
(1) Start spreading the news. (2) Attention-grabbing headlines. (3) Bombing the bomb. (4) The White House is leaky. (5) Have you heard about the “fiscal cliff"? (6) Signing up for Jack’s tweets. (7) Small business owners have more jobs to fill. (8) They also have plenty of complaints about taxes and regs. (9) IMF growth forecast doesn’t give much credit to QE. (10) German exports at record high!
Global Bust, Boom, or Blah?
(1) The latest gloomy memo from the IMF. (2) Are industry analysts turning more upbeat? (3) Questioning the pessimism about China. (4) Are China plays bottoming? (5) Intermodal railcar loadings are chugging along. (6) Second Recovery scenario for the US. (7) Mortgage refis are up. (8) Less imbalance in euro area’s TARGET2. (9) The DAX is on a tear. (10) China’s woes trigger more monetary easing.
Apocalypse Postponed
(1) Apocalypse Now or Not? (2) The difference between bull and bear markets. (3) Record high earnings expectations. (4) Huge relief rally in European bourses. (5) Economic surprise index heading higher. (6) Drop in Brent’s war premium as Iranians protest inflation. (7) Jack the Tweeter. (8) Earned income at record high. (9) Politicians didn’t create those jobs. (10) Lots of charging bulls among S&P 500 industries. (11) “Searching for Sugar Man” (+ + +).
Game Changer vs. Endgame
(1) The empty chair. (2) Still hoping for change. (3) High and low energy. (4) Back in the game. (5) Romney’s $17,000 solution to the Fiscal Cliff. (6) Fully invested bears in the Big Apple consider raising cash. (7) The market loves postponed apocalyptic scenarios. (8) Nice numbers. (9) What about ETFs?
Crosscurrents
(1) Will the bull go over the cliff? (2) Retesting the record high before yearend? (3) Postponing persistent problems. (4) FSMI is rebounding. So is ECRI-WLI. (5) Forward earnings at new record highs again. (6) A scary study of widespread pain fiscal cliff would cause. (7) Feldstein and Thaler have a couple of good solutions. (8) Spain is in pain and a pain. (9) Persian carpet bombing postponed? (10) Happy and sad mix of economic indicators in the US.
The Fed & the Cliff
(1) Bernanke takes credit for the bull. (2) Bernanke’s Put. (3) QE and LDR (law of diminishing returns). (4) Inflationary expectations driving stock prices. (5) Fixing or postponing fiscal cliff problem would be bullish. (6) How does QE boost stock prices? (7) Retail stock investors have been MIA. (8) So have pension funds and foreign investors. (9) Fed’s policies have caused a bond buying panic. (10) Corporations have raised lots of money in the bond market and repurchased shares.
Debates
(1) Lots of hot topics to get heated about. (2) Soon there will be some winners and losers. (3) Obama vs. Romney: The undecided vs. the decided. (4) Fiscal cliff no matter who wins? (5) Euro zone remains stressed. (6) China’s landing is looking harder. (7) Did Bibi call off “October Surprise” for Iran? (8) Time for a debate about a US recession again. (9) Benchmark revisions show more jobs. (10) The next great debate. (11) “End of Watch” (+).
Social Unrest & Valuation
(1) Plosser is skeptical about QE3. (2) Caterpillar is cautious about the global economy. (3) Remarkable resilience in earnings expectations. (4) The number 13 has been unlucky for P/E over the past couple of years. (5) The case for 14. (6) The case against the “Rule of 20.” (7) Lots of headlines about social unrest in China and Europe. (8) What’s the impact on valuation?
Wicked
(1) The carnival is back in town. (2) Trick or treat? (3) October is a typical month, but with more crashes. (4) Fed and ECB punish risk-averse investors. (5) Next full moon over Iran. (6) Wicked Wednesday at UN carnival. (7) The Mad Man’s speech. (8) Why are crude oil prices falling? (9) Won’t be surprising if Q3 earnings are disappointing. (10) Not much deleveraging in the Fed's latest flow of funds report.
Leading & Misleading Indicators
(1) Fed chatter never ends. (2) Fisher vs. Bernanke, Evans, and Kocherlakota. (3) Despite highpowered models, Fed is clueless. (4) A shortage of money isn’t the problem for employers. (5) ECRI: There they go again seeing a recession. (6) False alarms and top secrets. (7) Composite indicators can go rogue. (8) Our own formula is no secret. (9) Bad geopolitical vibes and bad global economic indicators. (10) The case for sector neutrality. (11) “Trouble with the Curve” (+).
QE3: A Very Brief History
(1) John Williams told us all about QE3 on 7/23. (2) QE3 boosted bullish sentiment and thinned out the correction camp. (3) Junk thrives in QE3 sunshine. (4) Demand/supply ratio bearish for oil. (5) Openminded on open-ended. (6) Fed cleverly positioned to get credit for housing recovery. (7) How QE3 could boost earnings. (8) Time for another glass of sangria.
King of Hearts
(1) The lunatics have escaped. (2) Lots of angry people. (3) Uncle Sam has left the building. (4) China’s economy threatened by anti-Japanese protests. (5) Iran’s loony leader is ranting again. (6) Exercises in the Persian Gulf. (7) The world needs a warden. (8) They are mad in Europe and the US too. (9) Oil price rollercoaster. (10) Saudis want to pump it up. (11) Energy stocks and Dramamine.
Stocks & QE3
(1) “What’s not to like?” (2) Eight reasons why QE is bullish for stocks. (3) Don’t fight the Chairman. (4) Encore, encore! (5) NZIRP is purgatory for conservatives. (6) It might work this time. (7) Basking in the warm glow of inflation. (8) A weaker dollar may be boosting earnings already. (9) No more Lehmans! (10) Lenders of last resort to everyone.
Feddie
(1) The game that never ends. (2) There they go again. (3) QE addiction. (4) Stomping on the tail. (5) QE-3.5 might work if QE-3.0 doesn’t. (6) Good for our Second Recovery scenario for 2013. (7) The Fed’s latest QE cleverly targets housing, which is improving already. (8) What if QE enables reckless fiscal policy, which worsens joblessness? (9) Schumer begged, so Bernanke delivered. (10) Melting up to a double top? (11) Retailers charging ahead. (12) “The Queen of Versailles” (+).
A Change of Seasons
(1) Will summer rally be followed by yearend rally? (2) Many stocks at or near record highs. (3) Record high forward earnings. (4) No QE4 after QE3. (5) Not much growth here or there. (6) No jolt in JOLTS jobs report. (7) Not much spice in China’s tax revenues, money supply, and loans.
Bull on Steroids
(1) September is a good month so far. (2) October could be trouble. (3) The next two full moons over Iran. (4) Performance-enhancing central banks. (5) Stocks near five-year high despite bad economic and earnings news. (6) The worst earnings guidance since Q4-2008. (7) Intel and FedEx seeing global slowdown. (8) Flattening exports. (9) Obama will meet with Letterman, not Netanyahu. (10) Israel’s jumbo drones. (11) Now for a little good news. (12) Après QE, le déluge? (13) A broad bull market for now.
Is China Shovel Ready?
(1) Corruption and concrete. (2) Cave-ins and collapses. (3) High speed, high risk. (4) Xi is missing. (5) China and Japan have some disputes. (6) China’s trade data confirm global slump. (7) Are there any limits to unlimited QE? (8) Capital markets are the Fed’s casino. (9) Will Spain and Italy say thanks, but no thanks to ECB? (10) Latest US and European indicators: Not so bad.
All’s Well, But Will It End Well?
(1) Life is good in London. (2) Pessimistic undertone. (3) Four concerns. (4) US wages and salaries on the edge. (5) Global growth is on the 50-yard line. (6) China’s Big Dig. (7) War talk in the Middle East. (8) Any upside left for stocks between now and the elections? (9) A few positive employment indicators.
Staying Close to Home
(1) Global slowdown ranks high on worry list in London. (2) FedEx confirms the slowdown. (3) US standing out, but not outstanding. (4) “Stay Home” vs. “Go Global.” (5) Quick tour of stock markets around the world. (6) What’s wrong with China? (7) India and Brazil need better infrastructure. (8) Mexico is outperforming. (9) Winners in Asia. (10) Industry leaders in US tend to be domesticated. (11) The drain in Spain. (12) ECB preparing to do whatever it takes.
Fiscal Fiascos
(1) What are they worrying about in London? (2) The future of gridlock. (3) Will the cliff be delayed until mid-2013? (4) Martin Feldstein wants to cap loopholes. (5) Washington’s attack dogs defend their special interests. (6) Norquist’s no-new-taxes pledge. (7) Did Ryan single-handedly scuttle SimpsonBowles? (8) Ryan’s omission. (9) A curse on both their Houses! (10) Sperling’s spin. (11) Global manufacturing weakening.
Back to School
(1) September is just another month. (2) Let’s not ask Clint Eastwood. (3) More upside for P/E than E. (4) Nonfinancial corporate domestic profits still strong. (5) Financial profits have stalled. (6) Weak global growth and strong dollar weighing on profits from abroad. (7) Ben and Mario are two wild and crazy guys. (8) Ben proudly injects steroids into the bull. (9) Mario wants to fix blockages. (10) “The Bourne Legacy” (-).
Divergences
(1) Same old, same old. (2) Dow Theory warning. (3) So why are Railroads in record high territory? (4) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator still bearish. (5) Consumer confidence still as fragile as labor market. (6) Home prices rising. (7) Ben’s speech won’t be as good as Ann’s was last night. (8) FRBNY says excess reserves have nothing to do with bank lending. (9) Lowering the rate on bank reserves is a very bad idea.
Punching Holes
(1) Fed feud. (2) A critique of ultra-easy monetary policy. (3) Lots of holes to fill at Jackson Hole. (4) When buying time is a waste of money. (5) Dear Darrell. (6) US has the lead on upbeat indicators. (7) Global economy is flat-lining. (8) Germany’s Ifo is bearish for DAX. (9) China’s SOEs are less profitable. (10) S&P 500 forward earnings also flat-lining at record high.
Hot Spots
(1) Hot summer in a hot year. (2) The economy is not so hot, but not too cold. (3) USDA sees higher food prices in 2013. (4) CBO expecting QE3. (5) Cliff notes. (6) An election with two radically different agendas. (7) An expert says Romney has enough electoral votes to win. (8) ECB considering rate caps. (9) It’s always hot in the Middle East. (10) “Robot & Frank” (+).
Evel Knievel & the Fed
(1) Is Ben Bernanke a daredevil? (2) The greatest stunt. (3) Leap of faith. (4) The Fed is set to do something. (5) QE3 or more NZIRP? (6) The CBO says a recession is coming. (7) A bunch of mixed-up stock market indicators. (8) The devil we know and his next vice president. (9) Aging bull. (10) Flash! Europe is in a recession, and China is slowing. (11) Revenues slowdown is widespread. (12) More profit margins are down than up.