Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Secular Bull or Bear?
(1) Is the end near for the cyclical bull, or for the secular bear? (2) Show time. (3) Fully invested bears should be happier. (4) Bear market in multiples and bull market in earnings. (5) Over a decade of dog days for the S&P 500. (6) The case for the secular bull. (7) Fiscal fight rescheduled. (8) Less negative equity in real estate. (9) Longer fuse in the Persian Gulf.
Going Vertical
(1) Climbing the Wall of Worry (WOW). (2) Living less dangerously this year? (3) There’s still a worry list. (4) Fiscal drag is a drag in US. (5) Will Draghi’s stealth bomber work in Cyprus? (6) Running out of warm and able bodies in China. (7) It’s getting hard to breathe in China. (8) Distracting the masses with xenophobic nationalism. (9) Yet many stocks are soaring, including many of our favorites.
Performance-Enhanced Bull
(1) Paying respects to Rodney Dangerfield. (2) Could it be a secular bull? (3) It snorts and stampedes like a bull. (4) Earnings are better than steroids. (5) Retail investors should notice that stocks are cheaper than bonds. (6) Debt ceiling is latest postponed apocalypse. (7) More good news about Second Recovery and energy independence. (8) Those blinking Republicans. (9) Inglorious Gridlock. (10) “The Impossible” (+ +).
Zero Hedge Thirty
(1) Fight Club: Durden vs. Draghi. (2) Last few “bubble months” before the bull is killed? (3) Lots of shocking numbers in Europe. (4) Draghi sees a recovery later this year. (5) Some good numbers. (6) Capital markets wide open for Italy and Spain. (7) France: change we can believe in? (8) Trade surplus in Italy. (9) Moving toward banking union. (10) The Dark Knight lightens up a bit. (11) Despite Boeing's woes, Industrials should continue to fly.
Reviving Revenues
(1) Looking for positive revenue surprises. (2) Record high dividends. (3) Another new record high for business sales. (4) Tracking S&P 500 revenues with world crude oil demand and US tax receipts. (5) Commodity prices and the dollar no longer weighing on revenues. (6) Q3’s revenue losers: Utilities, Materials, & Energy. (7) Top three revenue winners: Telecom, Consumer Discretionary, and Tech. (8) Q4 retail sales boosted real GDP. (9) Retailers should continue to shine.
Barrels of Oil
(1) There’s more on tap. (2) Saudis blame their output cut on weak demand. (3) Their real problem is more competition. (4) New math: US + Canada > Saudi Arabia! (5) World oil demand stats show global economy growing led by EMs. (6) Record auto sales in China pumping up oil demand. (7) Detroit scrambling to more than double fuel efficiency by 2025 with lighter materials. (8) Good for copper, platinum, and aluminum. (9) Energy likely to be market performer.
Whatever It Takes
(1) Central bankers are less conservative, more progressive. (2) Giving the people more money. (3) Let’s have some austerity, but later. (4) The Fed’s “quantitative threshold” for jobless rate is 6.5% until further notice. (5) Draghi’s amazing verbal intervention is working amazingly well. (6) BOJ is giving Abe what he wants. (7) A more populist bull market. (8) Risk On/Off is the wrong model. (9) Health Care leading the way. (10) Asset Managers are also leading. (11) Transports are bullish on global economy. (12) “Zero Dark Thirty” (+ + +).
The Trouble with Trillions
(1) Homer Simpson, Paul Krugman, and Bill Clinton. (2) The coin of the realm. (3) Change we can spend. (4) Democrats and Republicans kicking cans. (5) Altman sees a lid on the debt can. (6) Going over the sequester cliff. (7) Another deal to postpone a deal. (8) Boehner’s Rule vs. Obama’s rule. (9) A trillion here and there. (10) Global economic growth should improve this year, boosting revenues growth. (11) Our favorite Materials industries are Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals.
Another Bank Bailout
(1) Nice to have friends in high places. (2) Lowering the cover charge. (3) Another good year for Financials. (4) Foreclosure Gate is settled. (5) US banks have deleveraged significantly and are lending more. (6) European banks have been performance champs. (7) New loans are still MIA in Europe and Japan. (8) Regulators prefer more lending to more liquidity.
Snakes, Squids, & Squiggles
(1) Seeing patterns. (2) Let the earnings season begin. (3) Cobra formation in estimated and actual earnings. (4) Earnings surprises for the sectors tend to be surprising. (5) The guidance myth. (6) Squid formation: Biggest downward revisions for Materials, IT, Financials, and Industrials. (7) Market often goes up even when Earnings Squiggles go down. (8) Another record high for forward earnings. (9) Record highs for MidCap and SmallCap stocks too. (10) A good year for auto dealers and retailers.
One Singular Sensation
(1) From Booming Babies to Soaring Singles. (2) Demography is Washington’s destiny. (3) Singles account for half of working-age population! (4) Singles grew at four times the rate of married persons over past 10 years. (5) A self-absorbed generation leaving lots of debt. (6) Living longer, saving less, and spending more. (7) Fertility rate lowest on record. (8) Consumer Discretionary stocks should continue to outperform. (9) Our Earned Income Proxy soared to new high in December. (10) Bullish sensation. (11) “Django Unchained” (+).
Live to Die Another Day?
(1) The Person of the Years 2008-2012. (2) Don’t fight the Feds. (3) Policymakers’ mantra: “Whatever it takes.” (4) Markets are driven by headlines, driven by Big Governments. (5) Bond yields dive in Europe. (6) Draghi’s fairy dust. (7) China’s new leaders promoting same old policy of more urbanization. (8) Japan’s new prime minister wants more fiscal spending and more monetary easing. (9) Another fiscal fist fight coming. (10) The winner will be Big Government.
Fiscal Lift?
(1) The flinch that stole Christmas. (2) Another apocalyptic scenario postponed. (3) Rooting for three round numbers: 1465/1565/1665. (4) The curmudgeon and smiley do a deal. (5) Another cliff in March. (6) Grover’s spin. (7) From fiscal cliff to fiscal drag to fiscal lift. (8) Some uplifting data on GDP, consumer spending, confidence, and profits. (9) “Hyde Park on the Hudson” (+).
Three Wise Guys
(1) A quick and catchy response: "1465/1565/1665." (2) Predicting earnings of $118 per share for 2014. (3) In the “green room” with three budget pros: Bernstein, Lindsey, and Stockman. (4) Leaving the bill for the kids to pay. (5) Still gaming and blaming in DC. (6) German business confidence is up. (7) So is global oil demand. (8) Emerging economies leading the way. (9) S&P 500 sectors: And the first shall remain first. (10) Season’s Greetings and Happy New Year!
Santa
(1) Looking up. (2) Nice round numbers: 1465 then 1565. (3) Barack, John, and Nick. (4) The rich will get richer. (5) Fiscal deal taking shape. (6) Devil is in the details. (7) Room for higher valuation multiple. (8) Analysts too optimistic about earnings in 2013 and 2014. (9) But there’s room for improvement. (10) Picking the leaders and laggards of 2013.
The End Is Not Near
(1) The world ended for the Mayans many moons ago. (2) Will Dec. 21 be a Day of Infamy? (3) A fourth year of living dangerously? (4) Stock markets aren’t buying the Mayan scenario. (5) Bulls are running in Shanghai and Tokyo. (6) New leaders in China and Japan. (7) No recession in MSCI Europe. No cliff in US stocks. (8) Revenues and earnings should start growing again in 2013. (9) Emerging economies leading the way in globalization. (10) Dr. Ed’s Movie Reviews 2012.
Perpetual Policies & Politics
(1) QE3 + QE4 = ?. (2) Bernanke’s open bar for fiscal drunks. (3) NZIRP now depends on unemployment rate. (4) Too much transparency? (5) The limits of unlimited QE. (6) Bernanke and Obama: Ceaseless campaigners. (7) Washington’s phony wrestling match. (8) BIS says central banks are out of control. (9) Can government spending continue to flatline? (10) Unintended consequences of entitlements.
The Bond Cult
(1) Lots of corporate cash driving buybacks. (2) Corporate balance sheets are beautiful. (3) The bond cult has lent some cash to the equity cult. (4) The master plan of the Fed’s bond and equity cult. (5) Households have more net worth, including home equity. (6) Are small business owners all Republicans? (7) More job openings and online job ads.
The Equity Cult
(1) Bond King gives a eulogy. (2) Resilience of stocks proves that the cult is dead. (3) The cult’s favorite stock is down hard. (4) Cashing in before the cliff boosts capital gains tax rate. (5) Are special dividends propping up the bull? (6) Meet the real equity cult: corporate treasurers. (7) The retail investor has left the equity cult to join the bond cult. (8) The cult at the Fed. (9) The hidden strength in GDP. (10) Highly recommended new App.
Around the World
(1) How much global growth next year? (2) Analysts cutting revenue estimates, but still see growth. (3) European stocks remain on uptrend. (4) China’s new leaders want growth. (5) Euro zone is double dipping. (6) Latest German factory orders upbeat while output is downbeat. (7) Italy and Spain are in deep recessions. (8) Brazil working on opening bottlenecks. (9) US payroll data not too bad. (10) Consumers don’t like the view. (11) Geithner has the power to adjust withholdings. (12) “Hitchcock” (+ + +).
Jettisoning the Jitters
(1) Tuning out the bad news. (2) Plenty of good news. (3) Lots of opportunities to make money around the world. (4) A happy scenario for US economy next year. (5) Rising home prices could be very stimulative. (6) Great news: Business output outpacing GDP as government growth weakens. (7) So the New Normal is the Old Normal excluding the government! (8) Record high profits and cash flow. (9) Factory orders rebounding thanks to record profits. (10) No cliff jitters in latest NM-PMI.
Relative Performance
(1) Sorting out the patterns. (2) Consumer Discretionary stocks tend to be early cycle outperformers, but may continue to do so later this time. (3) Not too many outperformers among Consumer Staples. (4) Health Care can be a late cycle bloomer. (5) Financials should outperform, but may remain on rollercoaster in cliff scenario. (6) Energy and Materials unlikely to outperform if global growth remains weak. (7) Fracking should continue to inflate Industrial Gases and Specialty Chemicals. (8) Industrials may be market performers for a while. (9) New technologies may be commoditizing IT and weighing on sector’s stocks.
Two Steps Forward
(1) The market has ADD. (2) Always something to worry about. (3) No Grexit for now. (4) Did you buy any Greek bonds at 40%? (5) Spanish banks get some rescue funds. (6) European financial indicators are upbeat. (7) TARGET2 showing less capital fright. (8) Now there are two plans to avert the fiscal cliff. (9) Let’s split the difference, and go on vacation where there are no cliffs. (10) The storm vs. the cliff.
Aloha!
(1) Hawaiian vacation. (2) Geithner offers to cut spending by $1 for $4 of taxes. (3) McConnell laughs, while Boehner cries. (4) Pelosi and Cantor both say: “We won.” (5) Cocky Dems expect GOP to cave. (6) Will Nero surf while Rome dives? (7) The market is bipolar, with more upside on deal than downside on no deal. (8) Why are Germany and India outperforming while China is underperforming? (9) Ups & downs in GDP. (10) "Silver Linings" (+).
Fiscal Facts & Fantasies
(1) Death row and the cliff. (2) When Harry met John. (3) Beige Book is blue about cliff. (4) There’s a not-so-grand bargain in the works. (5) Tax the rich! Many are Democrats. (6) Another apocalypsepostponed rally ahead. (7) The Treasury bond crop never fails. (8) Averting the cliff should boost growth and narrow the deficit. (9) Believe it or not: Federal spending flat for over 3 years. (10) Here comes QE4 on top of QE3. (11) Sticking it to the next generation.