Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Inflation Still Mostly MIA
(1) Central bankers are seeking inflation. (2) Lots of liquidity. Little inflation. (3) Commodity price spikes aren’t doing it. (4) The big puzzle. (5) Why isn’t “free money” inflationary? (6) New losers and winners. (7) In US, rent inflation is rising, while wage inflation isn’t. (8) Robots replacing skilled workers. (9) Foxconn head gets a headache from his workers.
Relief Rallies
(1) Stress testing the bull. (2) The never-ending endgame. (3) One bull market with four rallies. (4) Policymakers still ready, willing, and able to avert calamity. (5) The aging bull is almost 3½ years old. (6) Running out of steam to charge ahead? (7) NERI was very weak in August. (8) Global economy is slowing, as Europe is on the edge again.
Looking Up Again
(1) The bull is still charging ahead. (2) A short and shallow round trip. (3) Three corrections. Three relief rallies. (4) Economic Surprise Index rebounding. (5) Europeans still kicking the can, but at least it’s down the right road. (6) China’s indicators are stir-fried. (7) Brazil building infrastructure. (8) Doves vs. Hawks at the Fed. (9) Nothing to fear but one big cliff. (10) Q2 may be revised up, and Q3 is starting strong. (11) Everybody is chasing yield.
Free Money
(1) Two wise guys: Krugman and Williams. (2) Open-ended fiscal and monetary recklessness. (3) Please borrow more! (4) QE3 and the fiscal cliff. (5) The Fed has nationalized the bond market. (6) Another fix for the Keynesian addicts. (7) No free lunch. (8) Paul Ryan for President! (9) Path to Prosperity vs. Road to Serfdom. (10) Japan's example. (11) Dire Straits. (12) China’s tax data confirm slowdown. Vacation schedule: Our next Morning Briefing will be on Monday, August 20.
Passing the Tests
(1) Rodney Dangerfield and Bill Gross. (2) US exports at record high. (3) World exports at record high. (4) Old normal making a comeback? (5) Railroads chugging along. (6) Food costs rising. (7) Israeli’s getting existential. (8) How to break up the euro. (9) A very mixed bag of outperformers. (10) “Hope Springs” (+). Vacation schedule: We will publish tomorrow morning and return on Monday of next week.
Romney Hood vs. Obamaloney
(1) Everything is on hold until November 6. (2) Uncertainty could weaken economy and favor Romney. (3) Name calling doesn’t instill confidence. (4) Sing a happy song. (5) Inanity may be depressing economy already. (6) And the winner is…. (7) Does personal income favor Romney? (8) Obama wins the hand holding contest. (9) More independents in swing states will swing the vote. (10) If stocks rise from August to October, Obama wins. (11) Poll says Obama’s lead widens as he leads in wrong direction! (12) Two unelectable candidates.
200 Days
(1) It still looks like a broad-based bull market in stocks. (2) Lots of record high 200-day moving averages. (3) Lots of confirmation. (4) Still a sector-neutral market with lots of outperforming industries. (5) They should continue to outperform. (6) More beats than misses in earnings. Not so for revenues. (7) Revenues more volatile than GDP. (8) Not-so-sweet spot for earnings. (9) Another batch of downers for global economy, especially in Europe.
The Draghi Code
(1) Lost in translation. (2) Shooting from his hip or good on his feet? (3) Taking Lehman off the table? (4) The ECB’s mandate is to stay in business. (5) Rescue funds to the rescue first, but ECB can help too. (6) The “conditionality” requirement. (7) Lots of skeptics, but Draghi is ready to act. (8) Industry analysts cutting H2 earnings estimates. (9) Energy and Materials are weakest. (10) Global economic indicators remain weak, led by recessionary ones in Europe.
Thanks, Guys!
(1) Mario, Ben, Mariano, Alan, Bill, and Richard. (2) The equity cult is dying again. (3) Earnings driven by global GDP. (4) ECB’s mandate is to avert euro collapse. (5) Draghi sets stage for QE in 2-year notes. (6) Spain needs more Sangria. (7) Bernanke talks the talk. (8) Krueger adds two decimal points to jobless rate. (9) Still targeting 1450 on S&P 500. (10) Sector neutrality still makes sense. (11) Fiscal cliff might delay QE3. (12) Wages and salaries at new record high. (13) “Trishna” (+ +) and “To Rome With Love” (+).
Talking About Doing More
(1) FOMC will closely monitor. (2) Dueling mandates. (3) Half-lives of new monetary policies getting shorter. (4) Time to assess dim WITs. (5) Ronald Reagan vs. Mario Draghi. (6) ADP is underappreciated. (7) Birth/Death Adjustment doesn’t track ADP small business employment. (8) Will auto sales wilt with corn crop?
From WIN to WIT
(1) Gerald, Mario, and Ben. (2) Words speak louder than actions. (3) Markets may be set up for let downs. (4) ECB and Fed committees polarized. (5) LTRO-3? (6) A ton of bricks weighing on BRICs. (7) An unsettling fortune cookie. (8) Profits swinging downwards in China. (9) India’s blackout and drought. (10) Wages and salaries are shining in US.
ECB’s New Mandate
(1) The mandate question. (2) Draghi is focusing on spreads. (3) Hurry up, and drag your feet. (4) At WIT's end? (5) Less than zero IOER? (6) S&P 500 earnings expectations down across-the-board. (7) Energy and Materials estimates especially weak. (8) SMidCaps outpacing LargeCaps forward earnings. (9) Not-so-durable goods orders.
Whatever It Takes
(1) ECB wants to stay in business. (2) Mario’s WIT, i.e., “Whatever It Takes” (3) The Bundesbank is not amused. (4) Cheerleaders in Paris and Berlin. (5) Bottomless pit in Spain. (6) Schäuble says nein. (7) The euro is a bumblebee. (8) Will the ECB buy “more Europe?” (9) Will the Fed buy more bonds? (10) WIT makes stocks smile. (11) Do earnings matter? (12) America’s two economies. (13) Britain gives itself gold medal for entitlements. (14) “The Intouchables” (+++).
The Best & the Brightest
(1) Weill, Greenspan, and Blankfein have seen the light. (2) Bair is flabbergasted. (3) The Great Barofsky. (4) Other Peoples’ Money. (5) Capitalism’s weakest link. (6) Geithner’s turn to come clean. (7) Nowotny’s golden opportunity? (8) Don’t bank on bank stocks. (9) Europe has very good Health Care for investors. (10) China’s tax revenues confirm slowdown.
Wobbly World
(1) Unsettling news out of China, the US, and Europe. (2) Home sweet home. (3) China’s PMI is up, but still down. (4) Three bad US regional surveys. (5) Europe hooked on debt. (6) Germany can’t run, can’t hide from European woes. (7) Moody’s says outlook is negative for Europe’s Triple-A’s. (8) Hilsenrath says Fed is toying with novelties. (9) Closer to zero. (10) King of the World. (11) Geopolitical tensions. (12) Healthier in the US.
Food for Thought
(1) Droughts and depressions. (2) QE and the price of corn. (3) Consensus earnings expectations may have further to fall. (4) Yet forward earnings are still at record highs. (5) No recession in analysts’ earnings forecasts. (6) NERI tumbles. (7) A bubble in dividend yielders? (8) Riding the rails.
The Sisyphus Solution
(1) The Great Trango. (2) Obama vs. Romney and the fiscal cliff. (3) Winning and losing scenarios. (4) Is the Romney rally over already? (5) Why bad economic indicators might be bullish for stocks. (6) King Sisyphus and Spanish bond prices. (7) The pain in Spain is spreading from the plain. (8) Bundestag wants less, not more Europe. (9) Mr. Henkel has an exit plan for Germany. (10) The Fed's Sisyphus.
Earnings Outpacing Revenues
(1) Stocks rise despite gloomy Ben. (2) An uptick in earnings estimates. (3) Revenues estimates getting cut. (4) Margins holding up. (5) Decoupling attributed to accounting magic. (6) So far, the market isn’t buying recession scenario. (7) Transportation stocks aren’t stalling. (8) Rail freight is chugging along, especially excluding coal loadings. (9) Housing is recovering. (10) Government is the issue on the campaign trail.
Ben Is Gloomy
(1) QE3 delayed? (2) Worse than CBO’s scenario. (3) Ben challenges Congress. (4) No more promises. (5) Lame options. (6) Chuck tells Ben to get to work. (7) Manufacturing’s recovery losing steam. (8) IT is cheap, but has some issues. (9) A European cure for back aches. (10) Germexit? (11) Germany wants Europe to be more like Germany. (12) French frying business. (13) Spain’s great perks.
Global Revenues Outlook
(1) Downward revisions for global and US growth. (2) Economic Surprise Index deep in negative territory. (3) Valuation multiple down, but not out. (4) IMF global forecast jibes with our S&P 500 revenues forecast. (5) A good proxy for revenues is up 5%. (6) Retail sales are down, and up. (7) The IMF’s assumptions. (8) German Constitutional Court has a date. (9) China is building more trains again.
Head Spinning Stuff
(1) Mind numbing issues. (2) No wonder S&P 500 marking time. (3) Popcorn and global warming. (4) Banksters and their inside jobs. (5) From the Persian Gulf to the China Sea. (6) Krugman’s disciples. (7) Chapter 9 is the way out. (8) What if there is a tie? (9) Waiting for better times with a sector-neutral portfolio. (10) Staying home beats going global. (11) US tax receipts stall. (12) “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (+++).
Rebel Without a Cause
(1) City by the Bay. (2) City with a cliff. (3) CBO sees fiscal tightening causing mild recession next year. (4) Fiscal cliff concerns already weighing on economy say FOMC members. (5) Another kick down the road? (6) Simpson-Bowles is the solution. (7) Obama’s “Chickie Run.” (8) Home-grown problems depressing Brazil and China.
Golden State
(1) From Gold Rush to Chapter 9. (2) Another Bill of Rights. (3) From fracking boom to the minimum wage. (4) The Muddling Model vs. the Meltdown Model. (5) The right way vs. the wrong way. (6) ECRI doubling down on imminent recession. (7) Waiting for the FSMI to turn up. (8) More bad news from the labor market. (9) So why is the Earned Income Proxy so strong?
Some Good News, Really!
(1) Silver linings in dark clouds. (2) YRI Earned Income Proxy soared in June, especially adjusted for inflation. (3) Our proxy closely tracks actual earned income and consumer spending. (4) German manufacturers had a good May. (5) China’s NM-PMI had a good June led by property sector. (6) Japan’s Tankan isn’t tanking. (7) Q2 earnings estimates cut for 9 of 10 S&P 500 sectors during Q2.
Banks of Last Resort
(1) A third year like the previous two. (2) Spain needs another round of sangria already. (3) Bears can take comfort in latest jobless report. (4) There is still a case for a rally over the rest of the year. (5) Another checklist for optimists with some caveats. (6) China has a beige book, which is flashing green. (7) How’s sector-neutrality working out? (8) Fiscal and monetary policies are both up to no good. (9) Central banks working hard to lose their credibility. (10) From NZIRP to NIRP. (11) Some signs of life in employment indicators. (12) “Savages” (- - -).