Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Snake Eyes
(1) Stall speed? (2) Real GDP still chugging along around 2%. (3) Upward revision. (4) Will storm surge offset fiscal cliff? (5) Paying dividends. (6) Consumers continue to do what they do best. (7) Optimism is in season. (8) Intermodal railcar loadings at record high. So are inventories. (9) Capital spending is a drag.
Woe Is Us!
(1) The bull gets no respect. (2) Will the bull hit the wall or climb it if we fall off the cliff? (3) Why Bill Gross is wrong about the death of the equity cult. (4) Professor Gordon’s new normal on life support. (5) Was the old normal really abnormal? (6) The fourth industrial revolution. (7) Grantham’s Malthusian musings. (8) Reinhart-Rogoff again. (9) Bullish contrarians should be delighted. (10) Earnings outlook remains bright despite recent estimate cuts. (11) “Lincoln” ( + + +).
Present & Future Tense
(1) Is the correction over already? (2) Bears should think twice. (3) A yearend rally to a new 2012 high? (4) Is it the season or the fundamentals? (5) A series of relief rallies. (6) Consumer Discretionary stocks take the lead again. (7) Good news out of China, Germany, & US. (8) China’s PMI back above 50. (9) Germany’s Ifo upticks. (10) US real GDP could be revised closer to 3% during Q3. (11) “Life of Pi” (+ +).
Thanksgiving
(1) Count our blessings. (2) Second Recovery scenario gets a lift from homebuilders. (3) Existing home prices up more than 10%. (4) Consumer confidence still rising in November. (5) Energy independence for the US. (6) So why is capital spending depressed? (7) The US economy is a coiled spring. (8) Risk On/Off and all that jazz. (9) What if falling off the cliff is off? (10) There’s still some energy in the global economy.
Turbulence & Trouble
(1) Anna Karenina, Lincoln, and the human condition. (2) T&T can be explosive sometimes. (3) Is the bull’s run over? (4) Deal or no deal in DC? (5) Kicking Greece down the road again. (6) Xi is a Party boy. (7) Time to bomb Fordo? (8) Iron Dome anti-missile defense system is a game changer. (9) Defense isn’t working in S&P 500.
Foul Mood
(1) It isn’t personal; it’s business. (2) Obama raises the ante. (3) Anti-austerity protests in Europe. (4) Friedman’s nightmare scenario for the Middle East. (5) QE4 to the rescue? (6) The market’s postelection vote is thumbs down. (7) Maybe it’s not as bad as it feels. (8) Recessions are popping up around the world. (9) There’s still growth in the US, China, Mexico, and Indonesia.
A Review
(1) Running out of time for yearend rally. (2) Once again, 13 is unlucky for P/E. (3) Stocks are cheap again as long as cliff is averted. (4) FSMI dipping. (5) Commodity prices weaker, while dollar stronger. (6) Sentiment turning more bearish. (7) Dow Theory in neutral. (8) Yellen endorses latest super-easy money idea. (9) Hard to see QE3 in Fed’s balance sheet.
Earnings Cliff Too?
(1) Analyzing the analysts. (2) Earnings Tuesday and Revenues Thursday. (3) Downward slope rather than cliff. (4) Micro vs. macro earnings. (5) Surprisingly upbeat macro picture. (6) US business sales and exports at record highs! (7) Lots of downward trends among earnings estimates. (8) However, S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings at or near record highs. (9) Chopping quarterly estimates through next year. (10) The big losers are Industrials, IT, and Materials.
Thelma & Louise & Paul
(1) Big win for Big Brother. (2) Romney’s bad numbers. (3) Majority rules. (4) The government has lots of supporters, who get support. (5) Krugman ready to take a dive. (6) Kristol says not so fast. (7) Deal maker: Closing loopholes. (8) The rich should expect to pay more. (9) Cliffhangers in Connecticut. (10) China not ready to land. (11) “Skyfall” (+ +).
Nothing to Fear, But…
(1) The meaning of life: A full tank of gas. (2) Bully for Obama. (3) Bernanke’s clones. (4) Is Washington running on empty? (5) The Thelma-and-Louise scenario. (6) ObamaCare’s unintended consequence. (7) Why do Republicans coddle rich Democrats? (8) Apocalypse now, postponed, or never? (9) Europe’s slippery slope. (10) Fretting about revenues.
Another Storm
(1) Still powerless. (2) Hello again from MiFi. (3) Noah has left the neighborhood. (4) Storm surge vs. fiscal cliff. (5) Still in power in DC. (6) This too shall pass. (7) Despite disappointments, earnings estimates are holding up. (8) They are falling for Materials, IT, and Industrials. (9) Earnings outlook improving for Financials and Telecom. (10) “Stay Home” rather than “Go Global” for another year?
May the Best Man Win
(1) Who will be more bullish or bearish for stocks? (2) Romney will let Bernanke retire. (3) Fiscal cliff: Deal or no deal? (4) Is it really such a big deal? (5) Storm surge could offset fiscal cliff. (6) US economy growing despite dire warnings. (7) Lots of geopolitical challenges for global economy. (8) Not much growth around the world. (9) German orders: Das is nicht gut.
Consumers Are Looking Up
(1) Employment gains support “Second Recovery” scenario. (2) Upward revisions are meaningful. (3) ADP back on track. (4) Earned income at record high. (5) Consumer Optimism Index at new cyclical high. (6) Monster is comforting. (7) Consumer Discretionary should continue to outperform. (8) Despite poor earnings season, S&P 500 forward earnings remains at record high.
Some Bad Breaks
(1) Plenty of damage in the neighborhood. (2) Digging ditches to get out of the ditch might have been a good idea. (3) Question for the Veep: Where did all the money go? (4) Maybe the shovel-ready projects weren’t ready. (5) ADP replaces its old numbers with new ones. (6) Waiting for Jack’s next tweet. (7) Waiting for the next “One.” (8) Waiting for the power. (9) From outage to outrage. (10) Still expecting yearend rally. (11) Some good news out of China.
Income Issues
(1) Greetings from MiFi. (2) Will next jobs report help or hinder Obama’s bid? (3) GDP still growing at “stall speed” without stalling. (4) Regional business surveys weak in October. (5) Household and median incomes stagnating, while pay per worker rising. (6) There’s no standard to the standard of living. (7) Can Washington really help the middle class? (8) Unintended consequences of government support.
Big Storm Coming
(1) The storm before the cliff. (2) Will Sandy favor Obama or Romney? (3) Why Romney will win. (4) Why he might not. (5) Romney/Biden in 2013? (6) Grantham says Democrats are better for stocks than Republicans. (7) It ain’t necessarily so. (8) Après le deluge, la descente? (9) Charts for bulls. (10) Consumers didn’t get the memo about the cliff.
Earnings Cliff?
(1) Revenue cliff? (2) Revenue growth is down to zero. (3) If the profit margin has peaked, must it fall? (4) CliffsNotes. (5) US business sales are mildly encouraging. (6) The ugliest chart shows orders falling. (7) Purchasing managers are mostly subdued. (8) Commodity prices and the dollar are neutral for revenues. (9) Industry analysts expecting 4% revenues growth in 2013. We're at 6%-8%. (10) The bottom line on the top line.
Energizing the US
(1) Lots of industrial revolutions in the US thanks to the one in high tech. (2) Yergin says cheap energy is the real stimulus. (3) Nat gas output up 33% since 2006. (4) Electric utilities using almost 50% more gas. (5) US producing 1.0 mbd more oil than four years ago. (6) Fuel efficient. (7) Volatile gasoline prices plunging again. (8) Disappointing revenues. (9) Addicted to Bernanke.
Muddy Earnings & Crude Oil
(1) Bad, but not so bad. (2) Comps fruit salad. (3) Guidance is downbeat. (4) Adjusting for Debt Valuation Adjustment. (5) Earnings are down with Financials, but flat without them. (6) Another record high for S&P 500 forward earnings. (7) Q4 earnings revised up for Energy and Financials. IT and Materials down. (8) World crude oil demand at record high. (9) Demand/supply ratio still bearish for oil price.
Tech Wreck & Breaking Banks
(1) “Stay Home” still beating “Go Global.” (2) Financials beating Tech in October. (3) Disruptive technologies. (4) YRI App coming soon. (5) “Bye-Bye PCs.” (6) Face Time is calling. (7) Computer Hardware takes a hit. (8) Revenues bottoming for Financials. (9) Fed Governor wants to downsize big banks. (10) Lots of “Stay Home” winners in the Winners Circle for S&P 500 industries.
Second Acts
(1) F. Scott. (2) The end of first recoveries. (3) Here comes the first Second Recovery. (4) The “old normal” is making a comeback for housing and autos. (5) Home builders are upbeat. (6) Consumer sentiment is driving auto sales higher. (7) Bull/Bear Ratio is correcting, not the market. (8) Bernanke & Draghi: Don’t bet against the two richest men in the world. (9) Professors are highly inflationary.
Buybacks
(1) Weekly leading indicators are upbeat. (2) Fed’s policies distorting market-based signals. (3) More buybacks and more upside for stocks. (4) Record dividends boosting inflows into stocks. (5) Lots of cash in corporate income statements and balance sheets. (6) Why are corporations borrowing so much in the bond market? (7) Is Tech getting commoditized again? (8) Global demand for chips dropping.
Instant Gratification
(1) Market math for bulls. (2) Global revenues growth of 6% would be just right. (3) More upside for earnings. (4) Analysts see higher margins in 2013, but are lowering their estimates. (5) Can P/E break through 13 jinx? (6) Born to shop. (7) A dollar earned is a dollar spent. (8) All good for Q3’s real GDP. (9) Earnings outlook remains bright for retailers. (10) Beware of Chucky.
Beantown
(1) The weather in Boston. (2) Blankfein says avoiding fiscal cliff would be very bullish. (3) Second Recovery is underway. (4) Foreclosures at five-year low. (5) Earned income at record high. (6) Rising stock and home prices boosting confidence. (7) Lots of applications to export US oil and LNG. (8) Tax receipts at cyclical high. (9) Time to Go Global? (10) China may be bottoming. (11) “Argo” (+ + +).
Panel Discussion
(1) Gabriel on Washington and Hardy on China. (2) Assessing the Fiscal Cliff in the US and China’s soft landing. (3) China declares war on Japan. (4) Senator Schumer is either killing a deal or making one. (5) Washington: Let the games begin. (6) Future shock for China’s plan. (7) Bad news for Japan’s auto makers and their Chinese employees. (8) Hardy sees another round of big spending in China.