Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Austerity & Disruptive Innovation
(1) From Tribeca to London. (2) If I had a hammer. (3) Stockman, Psy, and me. (4) Christensen, Schumpeter, and Marx. (5) Capitalism creates winners and losers all the time. (6) Politicians know how to win. (7) The anti-austerians fight back. (8) Reinhart & Rogoff’s big error. (9) Frustrated central bankers do more of the same. (10) The anti-austerity bull market in stocks. (11) The BRAINE revolution. (12) GDP is a mix of new and old normal. (13) “Mud” (+).
The Pits and the Pendulum
(1) Dr. Copper isn’t the only economist in the commodity pits. (2) CRB spot price index less volatile. (3) World exports and production rose to record highs in January. (4) The relationship between S&P 500 revenues, commodity prices, and the dollar. (5) Germany’s Ifo dipping. (6) US capital goods orders slowing. (7) China not as weak as Dr. Copper suggests. (8) Underweight-rated Materials may be oversold. (9) Focus on overweight-rated Industrials, especially enablers of factory automation.
Money for Nothing
(1) Fearless bulls. (2) Bear raid. (3) Finding support. (4) Beware of “Dow 16,000!”? (5) Bad to ugly Markit data. (6) More recession stats out of Europe. (7) Copper much weaker than CRB spot index. (8) Bad news is still good news. (9) Draghi to the rescue? (10) Apple slices some cash for shareholders. (11) Dangerfield vs Potemkin Rally. (12) Dueling ratios. (13) Dire Straits. (14) Focus on housing-related stocks.
Blaming the Weather
(1) What done it? (2) A soft batch or a soft patch? (3) The seasonal adjustment curse. (4) The coldest March since 2000. (5) Utility output jumped. (6) Hot home prices. (7) Outstanding oil output. (8) Stovall on going away in May. (9) Health Care is a good sector for the season. (10) It’s defensive, but still cheap. (11) A table of forward P/Es.
Flash Consensus
(1) Macro hedge funds still playing “Abe spreads.” (2) Long Nikkei and short DAX. (3) Flash mob, flash crash, and flash consensus. (4) Getting the shakes about shaky global economy. (5) Pause more likely than correction or melt up. (6) Analysts raising revenue estimates, while companies lowering guidance. (7) Technicians see lots of bearish signs. (8) Health Care may be the cheapest defensive play left. (9) Have central bankers lost their groove? (10) No recovery in sight for Europe. (11) “42” (+ + +).
The New Abnormal
(1) Some hits and some misses for the New Normal. (2) Eight centuries of data can’t be wrong. (3) Scholars challenge Reinhart/Rogoff findings. (4) Seeking and finding the old normal in private-sector GDP and in profits. (5) Yellen favors “lower for longer.” (6) Fed seeks to promote “prudent risk-taking.” (7) For gold bugs, deflation is the new abnormal. (8) Dudley isn’t worried about inflation. (9) CPI inflation rates remain subdued in the G7.
Not Too Swift
(1) Three-speed global economy. (2) IMF gives a haircut to 2013 world growth. (3) IMF still upbeat about 2014. (4) US more likely to impress than depress. (5) Construction and energy output leading the way. (6) Europe fiddles while Draghi pleads. (7) European SMEs are stressed. (8) Don’t hold your breath for euro zone banking union. (9) Weak yen should boost Japan’s exports, though maybe not to China. (10) Regulators shining a light on China’s shadow banking system. (11) Focus on market-weighted Information Technology.
Global Growth Scare
(1) No gold medal for the metal. (2) MEI sectors leading on the way down. (3) Emerging and submerging economies. (4) Has the global economy stopped growing? Of course not! (5) Is gold a leading indicator for anything? (6) Giving up on inflation. (7) China is still growing faster than any other economy. (8) Global oil demand growth increasing, not decreasing. (9) So why are oil prices falling? (10) Earnings still in record territory. (11) Focus on underweighted S&P 500 Energy sector.
Back to the Future
(1) The 1990s and now. (2) US looks fairest of them all. (3) What about Japan and China? (4) Heavy metals. (5) Bullish news depresses gold. (6) Upside for US in commodities’ downside. (7) When supply exceeds demand. (8) Fracking adds up. (9) Trend still up for retail sales. (10) S&P 500 Retailers should continue to outperform as forward earnings rises to record high. (11) “The Place Beyond the Pines” (+ +).
Super Market
(1) 1665 is only 5% above yesterday’s close. (2) The trick to riding bulls. (3) Who cares about Italy and Cyprus, or Lil’ Kim? (4) Technicians seeing bad stuff in their charts. (5) Don’t bet against the three richest men in the world. (6) Irrational exuberance, here we come? (7) Scrambling for dividend-yielding stocks as central banks push bond yields closer to zero. (8) Performance Derby is a mixed bag so far in April consistent with broad bull market. (9) Still keen on bull’s outperformers: Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Industrials. (10) Not as keen on Energy and Materials. (11) IT is cheap.
Why No Jolt in JOLTS?
(1) JOLTS showing fewer job gains than official tally. (2) Help is wanted. So why aren’t hires rising faster? (3) Maybe job seekers aren’t qualified for the jobs. (4) Could more job openings cause unemployed to stop looking? (5) Fed’s doves won’t be happy if jobless rate falls on shrinking labor force. (6) Average duration of unemployment remains too high. (7) A degree will still get you a job, but maybe not one that requires a degree. (8) College degrees crowding out high school diplomas? (9) Analysts spent Q1 cutting earnings estimates across the board. (10) Fiscal Cliff deal could boost earnings.
Pump It Up
(1) Whatever-It-Takes goes global. (2) Central bankers gone wild. (3) Mandate madness. (4) Delusional macroeconomists. (5) From the Great Moderation to the Great Recession to the Great Deformation. (6) BOJ pumping air into global bond bubble. (7) Draghi’s best-in-class balance sheet. (8) Obama’s subprime solution. (9) Are agency mortgage REITs too hot? (10) Global trade growing, but slowly. (11) S&P 500 revenues expectations rising. (12) Focus on Transportation industries. (13) My favorite robot.
Not So Bad
(1) Friday’s shocker wasn’t so shocking. (2) Revisions are more useful than first estimates. (3) Proxy for wages & salaries at record high. (4) Mixed bag of employment indicators. (5) Bad weather vs. fiscal drag. (6) No rush to phase out QE after Friday’s numbers. (7) The puzzling weakness in the labor force. (8) The Baby Boomers are checking out. (9) Draghi is committed to the euro, but admits ECB has limits. (10) Draghi disses Dijsselbloem twice in one day!
Brave New World
(1) The future is coming. (2) World State as drug dealer. (3) Gordon, Stockman, and Huxley. (4) Alternate state of mind. (5) Robotics Revolution. (6) Foxconn wants to get rid of “animals.” (7) Google’s vision. (8) Meet Baxter, the friendly humanoid. (9) No lunch breaks, just $4 an hour and some WD-40. (10) A disaster for cheap labor in EMs? (11) More income inequality, more taxes, and more government. (12) Clueless central bankers are fighting the last war. (13) BOJ will be buying Nikkei ETF. (14) Fed’s doves ready to compromise with hawks. (15) Sequester nicked March economic indicators.
Heartland
(1) On the road again: Houston, Fort Worth, Dallas, & KC. (2) What’s the matter with us? (3) No country for cranky old men. (4) Accentuating some positives, once again. (5) Laffer is rooting for the Red team. (6) Food and fuel prices stop ascending and could descend. (7) Profits in GDP making new highs. (8) Why are stock prices rising while earnings estimates have been chopped? (9) One hotspot is heating up, while another is cooling off. (10) Technicians don’t like what they see in the charts. (11) Europe falls deeper into recession. (12) The prairie sky in Texas.
Seasonal Adjustment?
(1) Bernanke’s spin on wacky seasonal pattern. (2) Stay or go? (3) Timing corrections is tricky. (4) BLS economists beg to differ. (5) Europeans get agitated in the spring, then go to the beach in August. (6) Triple top? (7) Still aiming for 1665 for S&P 500 by yearend. (8) Cyprus and Lehman are examples of “bailout burnout.” (9) Fiscal drag nicks US M-PMI. (10) EMs emerging more slowly. (11) Little Kim is having growing pains. (12) Q1 shows relatively broad bull market.
Coming to America
(1) Never mind. (2) The Dutch finance minister is new on the job. (3) Cyprus is very special to Russians. (4) Putin’s threat. (5) There will be repercussions. (6) The US dollar, stocks, and real estate are all safe havens for wealthy foreigners. (7) Dudley is ready to dial back. (8) Phasing out QE should be bullish for stocks. (9) Focus on S&P 500 housing-related industries.
Decoupled
(1) The end has been postponed. (2) The moments after the Cyprus Moment. (3) Mr. Dijsselbloem's little fiasco. (4) Draghi to the rescue again. (5) Scrounging for good news in Europe. (6) More happy indicators in the US. (7) PMI down in Europe, up in US. (8) Houses are selling lickety-split. (9) Federal tax revenues are on the rise. (10) Earnings are still breaking records.
Crisis Champ
(1) Oscar for best crisis management. (2) Worst crisis managers. (3) Panics have been buying opportunities. (4) The mouse that roared. (5) US leading indicators are looking up. (6) Gushing over gushing oil. (7) Monitoring depletion. (8) Making nice in DC and Jerusalem. (9) China reforming again. (10) Time out for Little Kim. (11) Performance Derby turned defensive last week. (12) Risk On again post-Cyprus?
The Fed’s Holy Grail
(1) The Fed’s mantra: 6.5% or bust! (2) From date-based to data-based guidance. (3) Esther George may not be lonely for long. (4) Phasing out QE as the quid pro quo for NZIRP. (5) All will be well as long as financial imbalances can be managed. (6) But what if price inflation makes a comeback? (7) There’s still an inverse relationship between jobless rate and wage inflation.
On the Margin
(1) Will depositors get toasted in Cyprus? (2) Don’t mess with Putin’s stash. (3) A deal will be done. (4) Aging bull still has legs. (5) Bullish: Jobless claims lowest since March 2008. (6) Our FSMI supports the bull. (7) Housing is following our “Second Recovery” script. (8) CoreLogic reports fewer underwater homes. (9) Forward earnings at new highs again. (10) S&P 500 margin in holding pattern. (11) Global oil demand at new high. (12) Non-OPEC supplies at new high too.
Safe Haven
(1) Upside to Europe's downside. (2) Can risk be on in US, but off elsewhere? (3) Fewer safe havens for laundering money. (4) How long will the Cyprus Moment last? (5) The dollar is a safe haven again. (6) European investors are buying US stocks. (7) A shortage of stocks as a result of buybacks & M&A. (8) Only 3,678 companies in Wilshire 5000! (9) US and OECD inflation rates remain subdued.
Animal Spirits
(1) East Coast to West Coast. (2) Keynes on human nature. (3) Keynes on steroids. (4) How will Fed deal with the animals? (5) No end to the endgame and no exit for the Fed? (6) Things could get tricky. (7) Greenspan’s famous question. (8) On the lookout for irrational exuberance. (9) S&P 500 PEG is at average. (10) Are sentiment indicators relevant if corporations are biggest buyers of stock? (11) No cause for exuberance in headline news. (12) The “Cyprus Moment.”
Spring Break?
(1) Will the bull take a holiday? (2) Going away is easier than coming back. (3) How to ride a bull. (4) Dearth of bears and volatility. (5) Lots of geopolitical event risks. (6) Militarism is on the rise in Asia. (7) Booming from Miami to San Francisco. (8) Market seems less headline driven these days. (9) Unusual divergence between stocks vs. oil and dollar. (10) No surprise in surprisingly strong retail sales. (11) More upside for Retailers and other Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Eye of the Beholder
(1) Miami is hot again. (2) The bulldozers are working the night shift. (3) 50% down for out-of-towners. (4) Beauty and valuation contests. (5) The rise and fall of housing’s valuation multiple. (6) Affordability index has doubled. (7) Consensus is that stocks are cheap. (8) Professor Shiller disagrees. (9) Tobin’s q isn’t in bubble territory.