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Ben’s Choices
(1) Door #1, #2, or #3. (2) Press conference pressure. (3) Will Bernanke discipline the dissenters or cave? (4) Good excuse to taper QE: Federal deficit is shrinking. (5) Hail Mary pass. (6) Old normal bond yields would be a shock for sure. (7) Big outflow from bond funds last week. (8) EM stocks and bonds are submerging. (9) QE chatter is depressing inflationary expectations and boosting TIPS yield. (10) Retail sales a plus for Q2’s GDP, while discrediting recession forecast. (11) Lowering S&P 500 Retailing to market weight.
Sentimental Journey
(1) Bullish sentiment correcting more than the market. (2) Bull/bear ratios dive after Bernanke testifies. (3) Draghi’s do-nothing policy has worked, but may be starting to disappoint. (4) Is Draghi’s OMT unconstitutional? (5) BOJ playing poker with the Bond Vigilantes. (6) World Bank sees lackluster global growth ahead. (7) Industry analysts see slow-growing revenues ahead. (8) They are more upbeat on earnings though. (9) Focus on underweight-rated Consumer Staples.
Around the World
(1) Go Global or Stay Home? (2) The previous bull market was good for MEI sectors. (3) US equity mutual funds investing overseas are still getting inflows. (4) Staying away from some Stay Home sectors. (5) It all depends on global economic growth, which remains lackluster. (6) No juice in industrial commodities. (7) Euro Zone flat-lining at 2009’s depressed levels. (8) China’s trade data showing weaker domestic and global economies. (9) Two strikes against EMs. (10) Japan’s fireworks show.
Pegging PEG
(1) The expansion is slow and old, and could last another four years. (2) How much should investors pay for slow but prolonged growth? (3) Pessimistic professor turns optimistic on next four years. (4) Running on fumes or on pent-up demand? (5) PEG is at normalized fair value. (6) The trend growth rate for earnings is 7%. (7) Forward earnings still rising to record highs. (8) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
Down the Middle
(1) Between love and hate. (2) Guidance from Hilsenrath. (3) Fed Debating Society. (4) The suspense is in the bond market. (5) S&P 500 remains remarkably resilient and overbought. (6) Friday was good for overweight-rated CFI sectors, which have led the bull. (7) Retailers getting pricey with P/E at 20. (8) Financials are relatively cheap. (9) Industrials should beat Energy and Materials in slow-growing global economy. (10) Earned Income Proxy rises to another record high. (11) Goldilocks on steroids.
Inflection Point?
(1) New vs. old stock market adages. (2) Go away on May 21. (3) A correction in a secular bull market. (4) The trouble started on May 22. (5) Putting the Nikkei and the Dow on the same page. (6) Curbing our enthusiasm for now. (7) QE may be losing its magic. (8) Nikkei drops despite BOJ’s massive liquidity pumping. (9) QE goes from win-win to lose-lose. (10) So what should we be rooting for?
Premature Tightening
(1) Sideways beats the alternatives for now. (2) Fed painted into a corner. (3) US yields are the new focus for investors. (4) FOMC turning into a debating club. (5) Watching mortgage applications. (6) REITs get hit. (7) Esther George dissents again. (8) Bernanke needs to herd FOMC rabbits. (9) Latest global trade data are wet towel for revenues. (10) Focus on overweight-rated Transportation stocks.
Mood-Altering Drugs
(1) All Fed all the time. (2) Making the pain go away. (3) Lockhart giveth what Williams taketh away. (4) MPMI is bad news for revenues. (5) Industry analysts curbing their enthusiasm for revenues. (6) Yet forward earnings rising to new highs. (7) Industry analysts see more upside to margins. (8) Focus on overweightrated Financials.
Clash of the Titans
(1) Despite all the clashes, stocks at record highs. (2) The clash that could crash stocks. (3) Central bankers are central planners. (4) Bond Vigilantes are rising from the dead. (5) Mythology and the bond market. (6) Yields rising despite record low inflation reading. (7) Bad breaks for gold and TIPS. (8) Back to old normal in bond yields? (9) The Fed is getting cornered. (10) Don’t bet against the richest men in the world. (11) The Hindenburg Omen.
Great Rotations
(1) Breaking up is hard to do. (2) Rotating or reaching for yield? (3) April was good for dividend yielders. May was not. (4) Two scenarios for the summer: good vs. weak growth. (5) Are record new home prices auguring the end of negative home equity? (6) Railroads benefiting from oil boom. (7) Data support the Great Releveraging more than the Great Rotation. (8) Emerging market bonds are hot, stocks are not. (9) Focus on underweight-rated Telcom Services and Utilities. (10) The Federator.
Gilded Age
(1) Edging away from rational toward irrational exuberance. (2) From fairly valued to overvalued this summer? (3) New record highs for forward earnings. (4) As yields go up, P/Es go down according to Rule of 20. (5) The Fed’s MAMU dilemma. (6) End in sight for negative home equity. (7) Moody’s is less depressed about banks. (8) Consumers are happier. (9) Another Gilded Age already? (10) Gatsby’s bling.
The Final Frontier
(1) Into the darkness? (2) Five-year mission. (3) Central bank trekkies boldly go where no man has gone before. (4) The three scenarios again. (5) Escape velocity. (6) Debris field of weak PMIs. (7) Central banks flying into turbulent bond market. (8) Bernanke as Kirk. (9) Dudley more like Hamlet than Spock. (10) Cyclicals have come back in May, while defensive stocks have gone away. (11) “Star Trek Into Darkness” (+ +).
Group Hug
(1) One of the greatest relief rallies on record. (2) The Bullish Strategists Society. (3) Another 2-4 years for the bull? (4) Starting to believe in tomorrow again. (5) Irrational exuberance or rational relief in Europe? (6) Making hay in Europe’s bond market. (7) Not all profit margins have peaked.
Dichotomy
(1) The new worry: strong stocks, weak economy. (2) Economic Surprise Index is down. (3) Growing at stall speed. (4) Not fazed by QE phase-out. (5) Door #1: Rally in a secular bear vs. Door #2: Secular bull. (6) Forward earnings at record highs. (7) Revenues are the key. (8) Soft batch or soft patch for US economy? (9) The biggest dichotomy is Europe’s stocks and economy.
Ahead of Schedule
(1) From 666 to 1667. (2) Symbolists vs. strategists. (3) To Hades and back. (4) Secular bear case is harder to make. (5) Illuminati and Numerati. (6) 666 x 3 = 1998. (7) The BRAINEE Revolution. (8) America will export gas. (9) Flood of federal revenues. (10) Are Obama’s scandals bullish? (11) Bernanke is high on hightech. (12) So was Greenspan. (13) “Renoir” (+ +).
MAMU?
(1) If it looks like a melt-up, is it? (2) Sit back and relax? (3) It probably isn’t different this time. (4) Valuation multiple could revert back above its mean. (5) Rule of 20 puts P/E at 18. (6) The fundamentals are mixed. (7) But bad news is good news. (8) Going vertical. (9) Fasten your seat belt. (10) The Mother of All Melt-Ups? (11) Greenspan's melt-up.
The End Is Far
(1) From near to far. (2) Nothing to fear but fear. (3) At 14.3, P/E is back to spring 2010 high. (4) If the end isn’t near, then P/Es have been too low. (5) Irrational exuberance or rational rejection of the Endgame? (6) The last correction was insignificant. (7) Averting the fiscal cliff was bullish. (8) Income shifting last year boosting federal revenues this year. (9) GDP passing the stall speed test. (10) Draghi passed a couple of tests earlier this year. (11) Hard-pressed to see hard landing in China’s numbers. (12) Focus on underweight-rated Energy sector.
Yearning for Earnings
(1) Singing the blues about earnings. (2) Some are reaching for yield, while others are yearning for earnings. (3) Putting a high price on dividend growers. (4) Q1 results depressing estimates for the rest of the year. (5) Stay Home vs. Go Global. (6) Forward earnings stuck at record high in recent weeks. (7) Revenues growth estimates in the low single digits. (8) Analysts still expecting higher margins. (9) Focus on overweight-rated Retailers.
Managing Exuberance
(1) A leak at the Fed’s favorite leak outlet. (2) The Fed’s exit strategy. (3) How will they know the difference between rational and irrational exuberance? (4) What is prudent risk-taking? (5) The Fed’s Financial Stability Monitoring Program. (6) Big Ben is watching. (7) Competitive devaluation leads to competitive ultra-easing. (8) BOJ starts going wild in April. (9) China’s loans and M2 growing fast as PPI drops fast. (10) Reaching for yield in Rwanda. (11) Another test for the bull. (12) Soaring industries. (13) “The Great Gatsby” (+).
Exuberance
(1) Within shouting distance of 1665. (2) A short history of the bull’s P/E. (3) Taking Greece out of the P/E. (4) Probability-weighted math yields 1695 target for S&P 500. (5) Weighing the odds of a melt-up followed by a meltdown. (6) If stock prices soar, Fed will have to do something. (7) Phase out QE or raise margin requirements? (8) Throwing a wet towel on the bull. (9) Will someone please hit the pause button? (10) Good news out of Germany and China bolster outlook for slow, but steady global growth. (11) Copper starting to shine again?
All Aboard!
(1) Dow Theory is bullish for now. (2) From divergence to convergence. (3) Central banks delivering liquidity, while truckers and trainmen deliver the goods. (4) Transport’s forward earnings moving forward. (5) Car loads loaded with oil, autos, and lumber. (6) Intermodal loadings trending higher along with business inventories. (7) Trucks hauling record freight. (8) Rally in transportation stocks fueled more by domestic than global economy. (9) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Transportation.
Crying Foul
(1) The bears were wrong about revenues. (2) Revenues, business sales, and GDP at record highs. (3) Latest earnings season had disappointing revenues. (4) Not so bad excluding falling Energy revenues. (5) Bears preach that Capitalists’ gain is Labor’s pain. (6) The market doesn’t take sides in class wars. (7) The government redistributes income, borrows from strangers, and prints money. (8) That’s all bullish until it isn’t. (9) Let it be.
Rules of 20
(1) The valuation question in London. (2) From downside to upside. (3) Ahead of schedule on yearend target. (4) Qualitative and quantitative dimensions of a melt-up scenario. (5) One more time: Don’t fight the central banks. (6) Phasing out phasing out QE. (7) Draghi “ready to act if needed.” (8) Japan may be a leading indicator. (9) Playing both defense and offense. (10) Valuation models for a melt-up scenario. (11) Payrolls rose, but paychecks fell in April. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated auto-related stocks.
Jam-Packed
(1) Two policy meetings and lots of economic data. (2) Carbon copy FOMC statement? (3) Inflation may be too low for Fed and ECB. (4) Unemployment rate is certainly too high in euro zone. (5) Will ECB copy BoE’s Funding for Lending Scheme? (6) A deluge of PMIs confirming recession in Europe, slowdown in China and US, and better growth in Japan. (7) Fed district surveys for April are uninspiring. (8) Will frigid March heat up April’s payrolls? (9) Consumer confidence blossoming in the spring. (10) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator is looking up again. (11) Focus on overweight-rated Financials.
Low Maintenance Bull
(1) A couple of simple wishes. (2) What’s charging up the bulls? (3) Hilsenrath says it all. (4) Disinflation making a comeback. (5) Why do they want more inflation? (6) Medical care inflation falling led by drugs and doctors. (7) Rent inflation peaking? (8) Hooray for Italy. (9) ECB set to ease. (10). No bank runs in euro zone money data. (11) Consumers still spending. (12) Focusing on fun-related Consumer Discretionary stocks.