Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Small World
(1) The global index project. (2) World MSCI forward revenues and earnings flat-lining. (3) World forward profit margin below previous peaks. (4) Big drop in profit margin of emerging markets reflects rising labor costs. (5) The upside case for Europe. (6) Europe has weak revenues, weak margins, and a low P/E. (7) Another manufacturing index is looking up in Europe. (8) Germany is slowly, but surely, improving.
Doves vs. Hawks
(1) 700 predictions. (2) Hawk-eyed prognosticators. (3) Lonesome hawks. (4) Not much growth in H1’s GDP. (5) Capitalizing R&D and “Star Wars.” (6) Consumers are still driving the economy. (7) Business spending on equipment, structures, and inventories is flat-lining. (8) Trade is a drag. (9) Federal spending gets sequestered. (10) Forward earnings flying with the hawks.
Looking Forward
(1) From aging to raging bull. (2) Challenges during the fall season. (3) Tighter QE and easier forward guidance? (4) Sequester II-X ahead. (5) Threatening to shut down the government again. (6) Obamacare needs lots of young and healthy members, who don’t want it. (7) For some employees, working part time is as good as full time. (8) Draghi’s OMT could be challenged in Germany. (9) China MSCI is cheap for lots of good reasons. (10) “Fruitvale Station” (+).
Brave New World Update
(1) From the High Tech Revolution to the New Industrial Revolution. (2) Santa Claus coming to Santa Clara. (3) Meet Baxter, the hard-working robot. (4) Income inequality could worsen unless everyone MOOCs. (5) High-priced higher education is about to deflate. (6) Compute this: A master’s degree for $6,600. (7) Everything can be done in 3-D. (8) Trucks without drivers. (9) China is getting weaker. (10) Europe is getting stronger. (11) The US is chugging along as railcars haul more autos and lumber. (12) Focus on overweightrated housing-related industries.
Global Tour de Force
(1) Rolling out our global perspective on earnings. (2) Four starters: S&P 500, MSCI-Japan, DAX, & MSCIChina. (3) Forward revenues and earnings data confirm global slowdown. (4) OECD leading indicators show some life in Europe, but not in BRICs. (5) Abeconomics gives big boost to earnings expectations in Japan. (6) Revenues are surprisingly good in Germany as earnings mark time at record high. (7) Revenue growth down sharply over the past two years in China. (8) China’s leaders want fewer “glitzy” government buildings. (9) FRB-SF study says Fed policy may be boosting unemployment!
Less Miserable
(1) Bears are the bull market’s Les Misérables. (2) Tracking misery during good times and bad. (3) Falling (rising) unemployment is unambiguously good (bad) for stocks. (4) Fed’s 6.5% target for jobless rate is bullish for stocks. (5) Relationship between stocks and inflation is more ambiguous. (6) Fed’s goal of boosting inflation is also bullish for stocks. (7) Drop in Misery Index since 2009 could boost P/Es some more. (8) Earnings season is a bore so far, yet forward earnings are exciting stocks. (9) Global oil demand confirms slow pace of global growth. (10) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
The Misery Index
(1) The latest version of the Fed’s message. (2) Fed’s “shadow” mandate is to boost stock prices. (3) Financial stability is at the bottom of the Fed’s mandate list. (4) Avoiding bubbles is hard to do, says Fed governor. Bernanke agrees. (5) Misery Index has too much unemployment, not enough inflation. (6) Falling misery is bullish for stocks maybe for another four years. (7) Will Fed lower the jobless threshold to 5.5% from 6.5%? (8) Labor force dropouts account for all of the drop in jobless rate. (9) Lots of part-time jobs. (10) Good news out of Europe. (11) Raging bull sectors within the aging bull market. (12) “The Way, Way Back” (+).
Mixed Signals
(1) Useful vs. useless information. (2) Paul Newman & Ben Bernanke. (3) Fed: Clearer message, but weaker signal. (4) Is the labor market really improving? (5) Dropouts. (6) Housing indicators are blowing hot and cold. (7) Outlook for earnings looks better than for revenues. (8) Here comes another sequester.
The Second Mandate
(1) Inflation is below Fed’s target. (2) Core PCED inflation at record low. (3) Bernanke says low inflation is not good. (4) CPI’s critics say it understates inflation. (5) Weak global growth depressing CPI inflation in advanced economies. (6) Is inflation only a monetary phenomenon? (7) Maybe the Fed isn’t the only inflation game in town. (8) Good vs. bad deflation. (9) Disinflation in medical care, used cars, furniture, and airline fares. (10) Tenant rent inflation rising. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated IT.
Questions & Answers
(1) Off-the-cuff. (2) No imminent threats. (3) Four more years for expansion and secular bull? (4) Retail sales making new highs along with earned incomes. (5) Will consumers drive right past latest pump price spike? (6) The IMF’s global economic forecast is subdued. (7) Might Europe surprise to the upside? (8) Less bang per yuan of borrowing in China. (9) Analysts see rising profit margins for Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, and Utilities. (10) Not so Great Rotation, so far. (11) Bernanke says Fed policy will remain ultraeasy even if QE is tapered. (12) Focus on overweight-rated Retailers.
World Tour
(1) Cleveland’s economy is healthy. (2) Detroit’s Greek tragedy. (3) Consensus: Earnings growth likely to be low. (4) Global growth remains subdued. (5) China’s growth slowing toward 6.5%? (6) Euro zone crawling along bottom of current recession. (7) Despite weak exports and fiscal drag, US economy remains resilient. (8) Federal outlays drop, while revenues soar. (9) Update on some submerging economies. (10) Back to melt-up?
Fed’s Message: ‘It Depends’
(1) The difference between FOMC members and participants. (2) Many members not ready to taper. (3) Half of participants ready to terminate QE by yearend! (4) Knickers in a twist. (5) Bernanke says pay no attention to what we said before today. (6) Swapping sideways summer scenario for summer rally. (7) Fed hawks can find plenty of strength in employment. (8) Fed doves (led by Bernanke) can find plenty of soft spots in labor market. (9) Winners and losers in the mini-melt-up since June 24.
The Latest Relief Rally
(1) Despite three corrections totaling 45%, bull is up 144%. (2) No correction since June 1, 2012. (3) The latest mini-correction was a drop of 5.8%, followed by a gain of 5.0%. (4) If phasing out QE is our only problem, then life is good. (5) Backup in bond yields almost over thanks to NZIRP. (6) Obamacare may be in intensive care. (7) Insurance exchanges not ready for show time? (8) Fears allayed again.
Three Speeds
(1) IMF chief sending smoke signals: Slower growth ahead. (2) Fast-growing emerging economies are slowing. (3) US is in second gear. (4) Europe is dead in the water. (5) Global economic indicators rising to record highs at slow pace. (6) S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings at record highs again. (7) BRICs hit a wall. (8) Germany remains stalled. (9) US looking great by comparison. (10) Overweight-rated S&P 500 Transports beating S&P 500. (11) Trucking index cruises to new high. (12) Earnings season line-up.
Stock Theory
(1) New Fed Center and Blog. (2) From Great Liquidation to Great Rotation. (3) Bernanke’s “stock theory” isn’t working too well. (4) Big outflows from bonds. (5) The new normal for bond yields. (6) From whatever it takes to as long as it takes. (7) From QE-to-infinity to NZIRP-to-infinity. (8) Self-sustaining growth at last. (9) Earned incomes soared in June. (10) Yet another relief rally for stocks on ObamaCare postponement. (11) CFI sectors outperforming again.
Independence Day
(1) Great holiday in the US. (2) “Groundhog Day” in the rest of the world. (3) Greece again. (4) Another European Grand Plan. (5) Chinese property prices defy Chinese government. (6) Egyptians want a do-over. (7) QE could be Fed’s Groundhog Day. (8) US economy showing self-sustaining growth. (9) Will the Affordable Care Act be unaffordable? (10) The NFL takes a pass. (11) In America we trust. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Health Care.
Have a Nice Day Trade
(1) The first trading day of the month tends to be a winner. (2) The M-PMI is always released on that day. (3) Lots of good news in both ISM and Markit M-PMIs for US. (4) Good, but not great, for S&P 500 revenues. (5) Better, but not wonderful, news in M-PMIs out of Europe. (6) Plenty of other solid indicators. (7) Commodity prices holding up despite weakness in Chinese M-PMI. (8) New record high for US trucking index. (9) Rising mortgage rates boosting existing home sales. (10) Tax revenues at new highs. (11) Forward earnings at new highs.
The Usual Suspects
(1) Opera or detective drama? (2) Lots of witnesses with different stories. (3) Nineteen photos on the story board. (4) Forsyth’s theory: Deflating asset bubbles. (5) Inconclusive evidence. (6) Fisher and Dudley on same page for a change. (7) Powell says equities and homes are fairly valued. (8) Powell agrees with Stein on credit excesses. (9) Stein clams up and recants. (10) The cover story covers all the bases. (11) Fed model says QE is a dud! (12) Flows vs. stocks. (13) The year’s winners and losers so far.
The Threepenny Opera
(1) A cast of 19 in the Fed’s opera. (2) They love to sing. (3) Writing the script during the live performance. (4) Dudley and Fisher agree on something. (5) Searching for a clear message. (6) Rising noise-to-signal ratio tends to depress P/Es. (7) Remarkably strong signal in forward earnings. (8) Shares are down for the count, so earnings are up per share. (9) Divisors as proxies. (10) Corporate cash flow still driving the bull.
'Undercurrent of Optimism'
(1) Hilsenrath’s question. (2) Optimistic deputy is ready to terminate QE. (3) Fundamentals looking better. (4) Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turning up. (5) Will rising home prices trump rising mortgage rates? (6) Job gains boosting consumer confidence. (7) Capital spending trending higher along with profits. (8) Less fiscal drag from state and local governments. (9) Exports are a drag. (10) EMs matter, but not that much to US. (11) Three Fed tenors singing out of key. (12) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
Great Liquidation?
(1) Half right, half wrong. (2) Why are bonds so TIPSy? (3) An astonishing correlation between gold and TIPS yield. (4) Inflationary expectations still falling. (5) Normalization is painful for bond investors. (6) Global credit crunch again? (7) EMs getting crushed. (8) Another bearish article on China. (9) EMs matter more than ever. (10) Can America succeed as it did in the 1990s? (11) Forward earnings at yet another record high.
From Pain to Gain?
(1) Litany of woes. (2) Another “endgame” correction followed by another relief rally? (3) Fed follies. (4) A world of troubles in China, Greece, Brazil, Turkey, and Syria. (5) Another global credit crunch? (6) Bond yields are getting interesting. (7) Retesting P/E of 13? (8) NZIRP will outlast QE. (9) Are central banks trapped? (10) Of mice and men. (11) Fed intent on taking air out of bubbles? (12) The long good buy. (13) This time, defensive stocks underperforming. (14) No place like home. (15) “Man of Steel” (+).
Thresholds & Conundrums
(1) The smartest guys and gals in the room. (2) Fewer downside risks, unless you own bonds. (3) A promise is a promise with thresholds. (4) When unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, tightening talk will begin. (5) QE will be phased out by the time jobless rate falls to 7.0%. (6) Retail bond investors running for the exit doors. (7) Greenspan’s conundrum was falling bond yields. (8) Bernanke’s conundrum is rising bond yields. (9) Stocks on the sidelines while Fed and Bond Vigilantes duke it out. (10) A bad day for interest-rate sensitive stocks. (11) Oil demand growth shows slowing global economy. (12) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Much Ado About Not Much?
(1) Is the market getting the Fed’s message? (2) NZIRP is “forever” more than QE. (3) Goodbye Ben. Hello Janet? (4) Stop the taper tantrum! (5) No summer crisis in Europe this year? (6) Bearish non-events are bullish. (7) Another record high for forward earnings. (8) Bouncing off the 50-dma. (9) Averting the fiscal cliff was bullish. (10) Not much fiscal drag after all. (11) Less stress in European banking system. (12) BRICs have a ton of problems. (13) Let’s Stay Home. (14) Focus on overweight-rated housing-related industries.
Reality Check
(1) The man behind the curtain. (2) Hilsenrath beating Bernanke on Google Alerts. (3) Fed gets a D-minus for communication. (4) The focus will be on FOMC’s latest economic projections. (5) FOMC statements explicitly promised to maintain NZIRP, not QE. (6) GDP muddling along. (7) Labor market improving gradually. (8) FOMC may need to lower inflation forecast. (9) Focus on IT, rated market weight.