Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Live Long & Prosper
(1) Spock and China’s future. (2) “China will get old before it gets rich.” (3) The downside of China’s demographic dividend. (4) Chinese speculating in stocks rather than real estate. (5) Q1 real GDP up just 5.3% (saar). (6) Big declines in exports, imports, and railways freight traffic. (7) Plenty of credit, and lots of deflation. (8) More easing coming. (9) Premier is alarmed. (10) US consumer getting squeezed. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 IT.
Paying the Piper
(1) T-Day! (2) Road crews filling potholes on a hit-or-miss basis. (3) It’s good to be king. (4) Who pays taxes? (5) From winter’s ice patch to spring’s soft patch. (6) Postponing liftoff? (7) Not much spring in March retail sales. (8) Health care out-of-pocket outlays infecting retail sales? (9) Excluding energy, revenues growth holding up. (10) Lots of geopolitical hot spots. (11) Talking points vs. wish lists. (12) Focus on market-weightrated S&P 500 Retail.
On the Margin
(1) More stagnation than boom or bust. (2) Commodity prices stabilizing. (3) Six cylinders firing in Eurozone, but recovery remains lackluster. (4) Waiting for US consumers to spend gasoline windfall. (5) Japanese output remains disappointing. (6) Chinese exports and imports are shockingly weak. (7) Bad news for Brazil. (8) Signs of profit margin peak, especially for SMidCaps. (9) Hillary’s challenge: Six out of 10 say junk Obama policies. (10) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Materials.
The Greatest Show on Earth
(1) A day at the circus. (2) Honorary member of Crudele’s rig club. (3) Send in the clowns. (4) Cecil B. DeMille on central banks. (5) Dudley’s Put. (6) What’s the difference between the “wealth effect” and asset bubbles? (7) Removing the safety net in China’s high-flying stock market. (8) Draghi sends EMU stocks into orbit. (9) Lots of cotton candy in the capital markets. (10) The Down Under controversy. (11) Are analysts underestimating EMU earnings? (12) “Woman in Gold” (+ +).
The Obama Doctrine
(1) The Middle East is flat. (2) Seeking peace in our time for a troubled region. (3) Let the Arabs fight their own fights. (4) Can we all get along? (5) Obama’s utopian dream. (6) Postponing Armageddon. (7) Kicking the bomb down the road. (8) Game of the Saudi throne. (9) Talking Fed head says first rate hike may or may not be coming soon. (10) Dudley’s staff assigned snow job. (11) Transportation in the ditch.
Earnings Revival?
(1) Another earnings season. (2) Oil, the dollar, and exports all weighing on earnings. (3) Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings growth of only 2.6% this year. (4) Negative growth during H1-2015. (5) Recent forward earnings rebound waiting for confirmation from commodity pits. (6) US exports are the pits. (7) Going with “Go Global” for now. (8) Cheap is in fashion. (9) Puzzling: Weak currencies boosting forward earnings in Japan, but not Eurozone. (10) Global PMI rebounded smartly in March, led by Eurozone. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Transportation.
Forecasting Jobs & the Weather
(1) March employment changes outlook for Fed’s liftoff again. (2) Both “one-and-done” and “none-and-done” more likely again. (3) Earned Income Proxy froze in March. (4) Was it a worse winter than normal? (5) Green shoots. (6) Unusual downward revisions in payrolls. (7) Globalization reduces reliability of Phillips Curve. (8) Not much wage inflation in US or Japan. (9) Deal or no deal with Iran? (10) English vs. Farsi. (11) Saudis raising their price. (12) Oil still gushing in US. (13) “Effie Gray” (+).
Ice & Soft Patches
(1) Full steam ahead on ECB’s QE. (2) ECB facing self-inflicted bond shortage. (3) Negative yields at the short end of the yield curve. (4) Questioning the necessity of ECB’s QE. (5) Taper talk already. (6) Central bankers co-opt the bond market that was once ruled by Bond Vigilantes. (7) Will there be growth in the spring? (8) March business surveys mostly downbeat. (9) Energy-related job losses weighing on ADP payroll gains. (10) Personal income strong, while spending is weak. (11) March data will be key, with auto sales auguring well for spring spending. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 auto-related industries.
Bad News Bulls
(1) Breaking bad. (2) Central bank liquidity is the drug of choice. (3) Updating the “insanity trade.” (4) Global stocks move higher as commodity prices move lower. (5) Japan’s CPI and industrial production disappoint. (6) Draghi steps on the accelerator of an accelerating Eurozone economy. (7) Bad news out of China. (8) PBOC eases mortgage terms and remains vigilant about deflation. (9) US stocks marking time while waiting for Fed to do something, nothing, or not much. (10) S&P 500 forward earnings rising again.
Days of Wine & Rosés
(1) Les Misérables. (2) Rosé a day. (3) Setback for Socialists in France. (4) Six cylinders firing in Eurozone. (5) Slicing and dicing Yellen’s latest speech. (6) FOMC lowers new normal unemployment rate. (7) Waiting for Godot and Phillips? (8) From ZIRP to LIRP. (9) Liftoff coming, though it might be postponed, but will be gradual until further notice. (10) Fed puzzled by persistence of low inflation. (11) Slicing and dicing the inflation data. (12) Three-month annualized core PCED inflation rate falling below 1.0% rather than rising to 2.0%!
Split Personality
(1) Catalonia and Provence. (2) Additional autonomy more likely than independence. (3) Busy pace in Spain. (4) Draghi more popular than Rajoy. (5) Bank loans starting to expand in Eurozone. (6) Monetary growth rising too. (7) Lots to fuel better growth in Eurozone. (8) Ups and downs for US economy. (9) Employment indicators are upbeat, while production-related ones are mixed. (10) Tale of four cities in Spain and in US. (11) Fed’s talking heads sending mixed message.
Running of the Bond Bulls
(1) Granada & Barcelona. (2) Alcazar & Alhambra. (3) Ruling class always lives well. (4) Income inequality now and then. (5) Income inequality before and after government support. (6) Progressives need to prove that redistributing income isn’t worsening income inequality. (7) Bond bulls worrying about Pamplona scenario. (8) Yellen and Draghi want to be reasonably confident of inflation’s rebound. (9) Focus on marketweight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
History Repeats Itself
(1) Madrid & Seville. (2) Anti-austerity protestors. (3) Hispania’s religious wars. (4) Ferdinand & Isabella and Columbus. (5) Are the Crusades making a comeback? (6) ISIS following a bloody millenarian script. (7) ISIS jihadists vs. Iran’s mullahs: Dueling apocalyptic visions. (8) Andalusian vote. (9) Rajoy’s challenge. (10) Draghi’s latest whatever-it-takes pledge. (11) Looking up in the Eurozone.
Long Good Buy
(1) Stocks aren’t cheap. (2) Finding good reasons to buy them anyway. (3) Stock dividends trump bond coupons over time. (4) Abnormal monetary normalization. (5) Might this expansion last till March 2019? (6) Yellen ducks a valuation question on biotechs and social media stocks. (7) Valuations go from within historical norms to high side of them according to Yellen. (8) Forward P/Es pushing the outer limits. (9) Fisher’s warning.
No Shortage of Gluts
(1) Easy money boosting supply more than demand. (2) Maxed out credit. (3) Disinflation with a whiff of deflation. (4) Flood of liquidity. (5) Yellen, Einstein, and the “insanity trade.” (6) June rate hike less certain. (7) Guidance of endless possibilities. (8) Fed funds forecast to three decimal points. (9) None- or one-anddone remain in play. (10) Texas still gushing oil. (11) Global oil demand/supply ratio still falling. (12) Triggerhappy Saudis have met their match in US frackers. (13) Iran deal would add to oil glut. (14) Natural gas analogy. (15) Lowering S&P 500 Energy to market weight while waiting for production to fall.
Pete & Repeat
(1) Age-old riddle. (2) Abbott & Costello. (3) Seeing a pattern. (4) BOJ buying equities on dips. (5) Wage hikes in Japan. (6) Weak yen, strong Nikkei. (7) Weak euro, strong DAX. (8) Bad news in China is good news for stocks. (9) Why isn’t falling copper price depressing EM stock prices? (10) Fed remains implicitly patient. (11) Yellen sees more room for improvement before first rate hike. (12) Fed decision bullish for stocks, bonds, and commodities. Bearish for dollar. (13) Thank you, again, Godmother and Godfathers. (14) Raising odds of the Irrational Exuberance melt-up scenario.
Ice Patch or Soft Patch?
(1) Chauncey Gardiner’s forecast. (2) Our forecast: Spring will start on Friday. (3) Citigroup Economic Surprise Index can be moody, and depressed during the winter. (4) Factory output slips on ice and oil. (5) Regional business surveys down, but not out. (6) Optimism should blossom in March and April. (7) Real retail sales not too bad really. (8) In the spring, there will be shopping. (9) More Texans collecting jobless insurance. (10) The downside of the dollar’s upside. (11) Fed depending on slippery data. (12) What’s the rush to normalize? (13) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 housing-related industries.
European Excursion
(1) Hot zone. (2) Taking a Spanish break during a working vacation. (3) Rush to Eurozone euro-hedged ETFs. (4) Will devaluation boost earnings in Eurozone as it did in Japan? (5) Latest orders and production data still showing lackluster recovery in Eurozone. (6) P/E-led rally as earnings estimates remain depressed in Eurozone. (7) Greeks heading for a “Grexident?” (8) US production soft patch: The weather or the dollar? (9) Earnings soft patch: Oil and the dollar. (10) Forward earnings diverging a bit by market cap.
Global Melt-Ups & Meltdowns
(1) Investments 101. (2) Don’t fight them, join them. (3) Transmission mechanisms: wealth effect and currency depreciation. (4) Melt-ups in assets and meltdowns in currencies and commodities. (5) Soaring dollar is equivalent to Fed rate hike, and reduces odds of monetary normalization. (6) Will FOMC statement delete “patient” or change it to “patient pace”? (7) The Age of Central Banks. (8) Breath-taking moves in financial, currency, and commodity markets. (9) Draghi’s latest pledge. (10) If Fed goes for “one-and-done” due to soaring dollar, look for melt-ups in US stocks and bonds. (11) “Foxcatcher” (-).
Under the Dome
(1) Chai and Spielberg. (2) Pollution is a major health hazard in China. (3) “Maternity tourism.” (4) Premier Li’s state-of-the-nation speech. (5) Struggling to rebalance away from infrastructure to more consumption. (6) PPI deflation signals excess capacity. (7) Debt, corruption, and pollution all linked together in China. (8) Insane increase in bank loans. (9) Hard to breathe in China’s version of Heaven on Earth. (10) Utopians can be dangerous. (11) The Year of the Goat or the Bull? (12) Easy money attracting global investors. (13) China is relatively cheap, but earnings are flat-lining.
Almighty Dollar
(1) Trade-weighted dollar started lift-off last summer and has achieved escape velocity. (2) ECB and BOJ adding rocket fuel to dollar. (3) Euro/dollar parity, here we come. (4) Yen down 36%. (5) Commodity producers jumping off currency cliff. (6) Break out in the dollar could break something. (7) Foreign earnings could depress the profits cycle which drives employment and capital spending. (8) Odds still favor “one-anddone” or “none-and-done” for Fed if dollar soars higher. (9) Searching for oil-drop winners and strong-dollar losers.
Inconclusive Trade Stats
(1) Mixed picture. (2) World production and volume of exports growing at slow paces. (3) Strong Chinese exports bullish sign for global growth. (4) Weak Chinese imports not so bullish for China and global growth. (5) German data on weak side during January after gaining in December. (6) Eurozone exports also suggest good global economy, but imports signal bad regional one. (7) Yen is boosting Japanese exports. (8) US trade data suggest strong dollar may clip exports. (9) US trucking index rose to record high during January, while port strike might have weighed on railcar loadings. (10) Transportation stocks unlikely to continue outperforming. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Transportation.
New & Old Normals
(1) Lots of good news sends stock prices lower. (2) Fed diverging from central bank norm. (3) The strong dollar weakens earnings. (4) Sideways may be path of least resistance. (5) Time should be on the side of the bulls. (6) While Fed is normalizing, other centrals banks continue to abnormalize. (7) US bonds reverse course. (8) Draghi’s mission-almost-accomplished press conference. (9) BOJ still well below inflation target despite massive yen depreciation. (10) Chinese Premier sounds the alarm by sounding alarmed. (11) Earned Income Proxy at new high. (12) Why aren’t employment gains boosting wages? (13) Labor force dropouts at record high.
Tank Tops
(1) Oil patch is less slippery slope. (2) Less unnerved about global economy. (3) Saudis giveth and taketh. (4) Record US crude oil inventories topping storage tanks. (5) US wells still gushing crude. (6) Rigs down for the count. (7) Usage rising. (8) Global economy looking up according to Eurozone retail sales and global PMI. (9) Asian central banks spiking the punch bowl. (10) Game of Thrones. (11) Churchill or bust. (12) Is the worst over for earnings? (13) Some sector erosion besides Energy.
Bull Market in Buybacks
(1) Early bulls. (2) Lots of buybacks and dividends. (3) Fed’s Stock Valuation Model really a model for corporate finance rather than asset allocation. (4) Interest margins and profits. (5) Gross vs. net corporate bond issuance. (6) Birinyi’s numbers. (7) Other inflows. (8) QE myth and fact. (9) The scary correlation. (10) Buybacks-led melt-up? (11) What will stop buybacks? (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 autorelated industries.