Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Purchasing Power
(1) American consumers on dopamine. (2) Investors shopping for shoppers. (3) Few bargains left among Consumer Discretionary stocks. (4) Real wages and salaries and inflation-adjusted retail sales at new highs. (5) Rent inflation is a problem, but only for renters. (6) Did Obamacare boost health care spending at the expense of sales of other goods and services? (7) Out-of-pocket costs hard to measure. (8) Texans aren’t as depressed as they should be. (9) Jobless claims jump in Texas.
Game of Thrones
(1) Low-intensity vs. high-intensity crises. (2) Putin’s latest gambit aimed at provoking Israel to attack Iran? (3) Will the Iranian deal bomb or lead to a bomb? (4) The Prime Minister’s existential speech. (5) Eurozone is back in fashion. (6) Cheaper for a reason? (7) Will the fundamentals improve enough to boost earnings? (8) Several upbeat indicators in the Eurozone. (9) Most Eurozone sectors are cheaper than in the US. (10) Ice patch or soft patch? Business surveys were very weak in the US last month. (11) “Leviathan” (+ + +).
Exuberance
(1) Is the middle class really distressed? (2) Consumer Optimism Index near previous cyclical highs. (3) Misery Index lowest since Feb. 2008. (4) Spending less on gasoline, more on health care. (5) Bullish sentiment is almost off the charts. (6) Energy and REITs inflate S&P 500 forward P/E. (7) Expensive sectors are the defensive ones such as Consumer Staples and Utilities, which makes them less defensive. (8) Financials & IT sectors are relatively cheap. (9) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Health Care.
Zero Sum Game?
(1) The decoupling debate. (2) More integrated. (3) Redistributing growth. (4) Oil: More winners than losers? (5) Negative vibes from oil shock. (6) US consumers using oil windfalls to pay health insurance deductibles? (7) Housing recovery still lagging. (8) Net Earnings Revision Indexes up in EMU and Japan, down in US. (9) Yellen sprinkles her fairy dust. (10) Yellen still worrying much more about labor market than financial bubbles. (11) Earnings: One more time.
More Fairy Dust?
(1) Something in common with Yellen. (2) Shades of grey. (3) “Patient” may still be the word after first rate hike. (4) “Patient” is the new “measured.” (5) Will Fed's report update valuation view? (6) Hilsenrath’s take. (7) Earnings erosion may be spreading beyond Energy. (8) Is a P/E of 19.0 irrationally exuberant? (9) Energy is weighing down revenues growth for S&P 500.
Bad Jokes
(1) Bag of monetary tricks. (2) Two-handed economists tend to be data dependent. (3) On the third hand: Market dependence. (4) Financial stability is another concern of the FOMC. (5) Forward guidance: Thanks, but no thanks. (6) Did ECB corner itself into QE? (7) Eight reasons why bond yields have risen this month. (8) Currency depreciations lifting German and Japanese exports. (9) Foreign bond buying in US surprisingly weak. (10) Keep the euro, pass the ouzo. (11) Yellen likely to sprinkle more fairy dust this week. (12) Is Yellen still short Biotech and Internet stocks?
Greece or Dare?
(1) Germany asks Greece: “Yes or no?” (2) They invented math. (3) Three reasons why Greece doesn’t matter, so far. (4) From nothing to fear to fearing nothing. (5) Eurozone stocks and bonds remain calm, except in Greece. (6) QE is coming to Eurozone. (7) Some stocks are relatively cheap in Eurozone compared to US. Some are not. (8) US stocks aren’t cheap, but they are cheaper than bonds. (9) Contrarians beware: Four times more bulls than bears. (10) Dovish FOMC minutes support one-and-done scenario for Fed rate hiking. (11) So does federal funds outlook implied by futures.
Reaching for Zero
(1) Two forces of gravity tugging at bonds. (2) Domestic vs. foreign forces. (3) Fed is the outlier among central banks. (4) Lenders must pay to play. (5) Central banks venture into the underworld. (6) TICS showing inflows into US bonds. (7) The Fed’s chorus and their diva. (8) Running out of patience. (9) The oil debate among debatable experts. (10) Does the rig count count? (11) More than a barrel of excess supply. (12) ExEnergy, S&P 500 forward earnings is flat at record high. (13) Focus on now overweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Reenergized
(1) The more things change, the faster they change. (2) Three scenarios. (3) Six-year bull going on seven. (4) Another panic followed by another relief rally to record high. (5) Stocks aren’t cheap. (6) More fairy dust from Yellen next week? (7) Oil’s bungee jump. (8) Overweight Energy and market-weight Transportation. (9) Time out for bonds and currencies. (10) Retail sales not so bad. (11) Downward revision for GDP. (12) Perceptions change on global economy. (13) China’s debt addiction. (14) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retailers. (15) “Timbuktu” (+ + +).
Hunt for Global Value
(1) The widespread consensus. (2) Opportunities overseas. (3) Dollar-based vs. currency-hedged investors. (4) S&P 500 and Fed’s bond holdings still joined at the hip. (5) Draghi has been Fairy Godfather of EMU stock markets. (6) Abenomics has worked for Japanese stocks. (7) PBOC good for Shanghai-listed stocks. (8) Fundamentals don’t matter as much if central bank is easing. (9) In some countries, fixed-income investors are reaching for zero. (10) The US isn’t cheap. (11) Value traps. (12) Falling earnings.
Greece & Popeye
(1) Popeye, Wimpy, Angela, and Alexis. (2) Beware of Greeks bearing debts. (3) Grexit or Bailout II? (4) Who will pay for anti-austerity measures? (5) When Germans say “nein,” they mean “nein.” (6) Beware: In Greek, “no” is “ókhi,” which sounds like “okay” to English speakers. (7) Greenspan predicting Grexit. (8) Obama straddling the issue. (9) More signs of life in Eurozone economy. (10) China deflating despite, or because of, mountain of debt.
Bottom of the Barrel?
(1) Are commodity prices overshooting the downside? (2) Crude oil price rebounds as rig count sinks. (3) For S&P 500 Energy & Materials the worst might be over. (4) Trucking index still barreling along in US. (5) Eurozone retail sales moving higher. (6) Germany benefitting already from weaker euro. (7) China’s imports and railway freight traffic are worrisome. (8) Will Fed tightening steepen or flatten the yield curve? (9) Larry Summers warns Fed that raising rates before inflation returns to 2% could be a catastrophe.
Revise That
(1) Game changer? (2) One-and-done vs. normalization. (3) Yellen’s semi-annual testimony should be interesting. (4) Payrolls tend to be revised higher during expansions. (5) Labor force soared in January after long-term jobless insurance terminated. (6) Earned Income Proxy at new record high. (7) Wage gains boosted by hike in minimum wage, but remain subdued. (8) Old Normal for employment and New Normal for wages? (9) GDP and productivity are puzzling. (10) Go Global outperforming so far this year. (11)
Gwyneth’s World
(1) “Conscious uncoupling.” (2) Will the US, the Fed, and Greece decouple this year? (3) US exports still growing. (4) Will US imports save the world? (5) US bond yields brought down by gravitational pull of nearzero German and Japanese yields. (6) Chinese just want to have fun too. (7) US profits coupled to oil price and the dollar. (8) Emerging markets decoupling from commodity prices and the dollar. (9) Stocks love easy central bankers. (10) Can Islam decouple from jihadists?
High Octane
(1) Bottom of the barrel for oil price? (2) Nearby vs. distant futures. (3) It takes two to Contango. (4) Fewer rigs to count, but US still gushing oil. (5) Not everyone is cutting capital spending in the oil patch. (6) Energy analysts have slashed their long-term earnings growth expectations. (7) Don’t bet against US consumers. (8) Auto sales revved up by jobs, real wages, and confidence. (9) Inflation-adjusted hourly pay at record high. (10) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 auto industries.
Bad Play
(1) Woody Hayes on forward passes. (2) Three paths for stocks. (3) Playing corrections requires two great calls. (4) Barometers don’t always work. (5) Playing the averages doesn’t always work. (6) Volatility can be a bearish signal, or just what happens in a sideways trading range. (7) Dollar and oil mix. (8) Headwinds for earnings. (9) Quarterly earnings estimates falling fast. (10) Is valuation getting boost from falling earnings and stronger dollar?
NIRP
(1) Less than zero. (2) Back to the future: Nine reasons why yields are falling. (3) Three wise men. (4) Amazingly low 30-year yields. (5) Japan blazes the trail. (6) From NZIRP to NIRP. (7) Disinflation, deflation, and stagnation. (8) ECB’s liquidity challenge. (9) Four horsemen of deflation. (10) Flight to zero. (11) China slowing. US growing. (12) Up, down, and sideways. (13) “Taken 3” (- -).
How the World Works
(1) Two big questions. (2) Global liquidity doubles since start of 2009. (3) Easy money losing its effectiveness. (4) Debt-financed supply exceeds debt-financed demand, resulting in deflation. (5) Central banks doing more of the same and producing more secular stagnation and deflation. (6) The Greek solution to too much debt. (7) The death of the debt super-cycle. (8) Central banks messing with currency war. (9) The patient Fed. (10) Too many maxed-out borrowers in Eurozone? (11) Less bang-per-yuan. (12) Profit margin review.
Yearning for Earnings
(1) Get ready, set, go. (2) The $120/$130 scenario. (3) Lowering S&P 500 target to 2150 this year and pushing 2300 to mid-2016. (4) Several factors weighing on earnings. (5) Not a zero-sum game. (6) Still waiting for usual earnings season upturn. (7) Industry analysts slashing 2015 and 2016 estimates. (8) Margin estimates falling. (9) Energy remains the biggest dead weight. (10) Durable goods are also heavy. (11) Consumer confidence is euphoric. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
Houston’s Problem
(1) Houston has a problem. (2) US oil wells still gushing. (3) Dallas Fed survey showing weakness. (4) US consumer confidence going vertically up as gasoline prices go vertically down. (5) Homebuilding boom could offset oil industry bust. (6) Is the gloomy consensus on global economy too gloomy? (7) Yergin explains it all. (8) Oil shale frackers are the new swingers. (9) The free market vs. the Saudis. (10) Focus on marketweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Q€
(1) After the darkness, there was light. (2) Euro is trading more like drachma than D-mark. (3) QE still lifts stock and bond prices. (4) Good to be a Bond King. (5) Paying for the privilege of lending money. (6) Still betting on one-and-done. (7) Draghi’s shock-and-awe. (8) Open-ended Q€. (9) Greeks vote, while ECB does not. (10) Eurozone stats still mostly stagnating. (11) Performance Derby. (12) “Birdman” (+).
QE Futility
(1) The magic inflation target. (2) IMF lowers inflation outlook. (3) Despite ultra-easy money, central banks fighting deflation. (4) Rosengren is in no rush to raise rates. (5) What does QE really do? (6) From Draghi’s whatever-it-takes to QE. (7) Canadian surprise. (8) BOJ lowers inflation forecast and its credibility. (9) BOE is unanimous. (10) Earnings have some major headwinds.
Will the Other Shoe Drop?
(1) The neighbor upstairs. (2) The unknown consequences of known freefalling commodity, forex, and bond markets. (3) Iranian oil minister says $25 a barrel possible. (4) What will consumers do? (5) Will oil debt defaults trigger a calamity? (6) What about Petrobras? (7) How big a hit to capital spending really? (8) Houthis in Yemen. (9) What killed the commodity super-cycle? (10) Real world experiment: Does devaluation work? (11) A bubble in Chinese stocks? (12) More about foreign earnings.
Shanghai Chaos
(1) The trauma of 2008 still haunts investors. (2) Another dip, or worse? (3) Nothing to fear but volatility in commodity, financial, and forex markets. (4) Yes, we know, stock investors hate volatility. (5) There may be more downside in oil price, and more risk in energy junk bonds. (6) Iran’s president wants a vote. (7) Did Shanghai Chaos sell copper? (8) Negative interest rates in the Eurozone, Switzerland, and Japan. (9) Flattening yield curves signal secular stagnation abroad, not in US. (10) More chaos in currencies. (11) Grexit: Part II. (12) Don’t bet against US consumers. (13) How much will strong dollar hurt earnings? (14) “American Sniper” (+ +).
Warning Flags?
(1) It’s all up to American consumers. (2) Can the US continue to decouple? (3) Inflation-adjusted retail sales were very strong during Q4. (4) Weekly consumer confidence has been rising fast recently. (5) Real hourly pay at record high. (6) Green, yellow, and red flags. (7) CRB raw industrials spot price index breaking down. (8) Copper following oil price. (9) Excess supply or shortage of demand? (10) Forward earnings turns down along with Boom-Bust Barometer and Fundamental Stock Market Indicator. (11) Commodity currencies getting weaker. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retailing.