Forecasting Jobs & the Weather

(1) March employment changes outlook for Fed’s liftoff again. (2) Both “one-and-done” and “none-and-done” more likely again. (3) Earned Income Proxy froze in March. (4) Was it a worse winter than normal? (5) Green shoots. (6) Unusual downward revisions in payrolls. (7) Globalization reduces reliability of Phillips Curve. (8) Not much wage inflation in US or Japan. (9) Deal or no deal with Iran? (10) English vs. Farsi. (11) Saudis raising their price. (12) Oil still gushing in US. (13) “Effie Gray” (+).