QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

US Jobs Market: Onwards & Upwards

We’ve contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the pandemic. We disagreed with the view that it was weakening. Now we are turning more upbeat about the outlook for employment.

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The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale

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MARKET CALL: The Trump/Musk/Vivek/Santa Rally

For better or worse, Trump’s New World Order will certainly be different from Biden’s Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by

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Home For the Holidays

This is the time of the year when we all count our blessings. The Yardeni Research team thanks you for your interest in our research. We wish you a great Thanksgiving tomorrow with your family and friends at your

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Stocks Still OK With Tariff Man

Last night, President Trump posted on social media that he will slap a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada his first day in office. The tariff will remain in effect until fentanyl, other drugs, and

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In Bessent We Trust

The Bond Vigilantes like Scott Bessent, who was nominated to be US Treasury Secretary by Donald Trump yesterday. Their vote of confidence was reflected in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which fell to 4.28% from 4.42% at the

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The Economic Week Ahead: November 25-29

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well.

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An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

We are often asked whether the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That’s a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are

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Small, Medium, And Large Cap Stocks

The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps

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The Economic Week Ahead: November 18–22

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates.

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MARKET CALL: Powell’s Latest Pirouette

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouettes are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in Dallas. He said that “the economy is

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Sticky Landing For Inflation?

Today’s CPI report suggests that inflation may be getting stuck north of the Fed’s 2.0% target. The headline and core CPI inflation rates rose 2.6% and 3.3% y/y during October. Goods prices are still deflating. But supercore inflation, rent

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From Election Uncertainty To Policy Uncertainty

The NFIB survey of small business owners was released today showing a record high in their uncertainty index during October (chart). That’s not surprising since the polls showed that the presidential race was too close to call, raising the

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Trump Tariffs 1.0 & 2.0

Executive Summary: The new tariffs likely under Trump 2.0 could be means to great ends for the US by increasing the US’s trade negotiating leverage—or they could backfire and cause a trade war that curtails global economic growth, which is

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China: A Deflating Dragon

Over the past three years, most American economists believed that a recession would be necessary to bring inflation down to 2.0% in the US. While the US economy managed to avoid a downturn, those predictions may have been right.

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The Economic Week Ahead: November 11–15

The week ahead will provide updates on inflation, consumer spending, and manufacturing. We expect inflation might have stalled in October, interrupting its decline toward the Fed’s 2.0% target. We still expect a solid increase in inflation-adjusted incomes last month,

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Powell’s Mixed Message Remains Dovish

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today as widely expected. We expected it as well, though we still believe that the now 75bps cut in the FFR since September 18 is

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Trump 2.0 and the Financial Markets

Donald Trump’s win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will continue through the end of the decade

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25bps Cut? We Strongly Dissent!

We may or may not know tonight who will be the next president, but we should know which party will win a majority in the Senate and the House. It appears that Republicans are likely to do so. In

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Market Call: Trend Spotting

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph’s analysis often confirmed Ed’s fundamental analysis. So in our spare time, we

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The Economic Week Ahead: November 4–8

The blockbuster event in the week ahead is Tuesday’s presidential election. We’re rooting for gridlock, or a divided government. Both parties seem intent on passing policies that would widen the federal government budget deficit that’s already too wide. Notwithstanding the stimulative

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Super Macro. Not So Super Micro.

Some of the air is coming out of the AI trade. Super Micro Computer hasn’t been super recently. It fell 12% today after auditor Ernst & Young resigned due to inaccurate financial reporting and is now down 66% over the past

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Going Nowhere Fast?

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has

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