Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m. Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn’t need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a

This week’s economic indicators will be primarily focused on inflation. Barring any unexpected surprises on the inflation front, the financial markets may care more about the few labor market indicators. The FOMC entered the blackout period ahead of its

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update of his take on the stock market from a trading perspective. Here’s his reply: “Even with the recent decline in the stock market, I’m still recommending a cautious/defensive approach to stocks. My two biggest

Something doesn’t make sense. Why are stock prices falling when the Fed is set to lower interest rates to avert a recession and to stop the unemployment rate from rising by boosting economic growth? We had a glimpse of

Executive Summary: The latest batch of labor market indicators has caused a temporary “growth scare,” in our opinion. Concerns that economic growth is slowing have convinced the markets that the Fed will open up the easing spigots and cut

We acknowledge that today’s employment report was weaker than we expected, but there were pockets of strength. We also acknowledge (as the financial markets expect) that this means the Fed now is more likely to cut the federal funds

Oops: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We speculated that a leak of that information might have caused Tuesday’s

During the first two trading days of September, stock prices, oil prices, and bond yields fell sharply; the Department of Justice (DOJ) subpoenaed Nvidia in its antitrust probe; Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his hawkish monetary

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices,

The shortened week ahead is an important one for labor market indicators. We expect them to show that August’s employment continued to grow at a solid pace greater than July’s pace, which was weakened by bad weather. That should lift bond

September has a history of being the worst month of the year for the stock market (chart). It’s hard to imagine that it will be a bad one this year since the Fed is widely expected to start its

(1) Chinese consumers are depressed. (2) Home prices are falling in China. (3) Chinese stock prices are on downward trends led by real estate stocks. (4) China’s real retail sales growth is weak and exceeds the growth of industrial

Today was a Roaring 2020s kind of day. The DJIA jumped to yet another record high. Stock prices rose even as Nvidia dipped after beating quarterly earnings expectations (which were widely expected to beat expectations!). Once again: No recession in today’s

Nvidia is set to report quarterly results tomorrow. We bet that the company won’t disappoint unless it announces that its highly anticipated Blackwell chip isn’t quite ready for primetime. A CNBC headline trumpeted today that Nvidia is the world’s

We were surprised to see the sharp drop in the percentage of survey respondents with plans to buy any home within the next six months in August’s consumer confidence survey released on Tuesday (chart). After all, the 30-year mortgage

The world is getting more dangerous. That doesn’t seem to be having any impact on the US stock market. The S&P 500 is less than 1% below its July 16 record high, while the equal-weighted version of the index

This week’s releases will include the first clues on the economy’s performance in August. We’re expecting to see confirmation of ongoing labor market strength in the month’s consumer confidence survey (Tue) and initial unemployment claims (Thu). Some of August’s improvement

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was unambiguously dovish, as we observed in that day’s QuickTakes. It was also unambiguously bullish for the stock market because it confirmed widespread expectations that September’s cut in the federal

Stock traders took some profits today. They were probably nervous that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be less dovish tomorrow than the markets are about the outlook for rate cuts beyond 25bps in September. We’ve been less dovish than

Today, Target CEO Brian Cornell said that there’s no room for price gouging in a super-competitive business like retail. He was responding to accusations by Vice President Kamala Harris that grocers are inflating their prices. As the Democratic candidate

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended March 2024. These data are used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag,

The strength of the US dollar has been a key feature of the post-pandemic bull market. Approaching Jackson Hole, the greenback has been falling. It is now up just 0.5% ytd versus 4.6% seven weeks ago (chart). Is this

Last week’s economic data confirmed that consumers are still consuming, the labor market is fine, small business owners are more optimistic, and inflation is still moderating. On Friday, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to

The week ahead is light on economic data releases. However, there will be lots of news coming out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Thursday through Saturday as many of the world’s central bankers gather for their annual meeting near the

This morning’s data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious

China’s economy is faltering. July data suggest the government will have to provide more stimulus to meet its 5% economic growth target for the year. Most striking is the small but unusual decline in bank loans during the month

On long car rides, the kids in the back seat ask their parents, “Are we there yet?” Investors have been asking the same question about the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. The answer is we aren’t there yet, but we’re

This morning’s July PPI was cooler than expected, rising just 0.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The markets responded by betting on a swifter Fed interest-rate cutting cycle, sinking the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.956% and the 10-year yield to 3.856%. Stocks

We’ve been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn’t expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead

  The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week’s financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of