The economy won’t let us down. Despite numerous crises, real GDP has remained recession-resistant since the Covid lockdown during the first half of 2020. That’s almost six recession-free years notwithstanding the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the tightening

At the end of last year, the words “uncertain” and “uncertainty” appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year’s meetings. The June

Nothing happened today in the financial markets. The prices of stocks, bonds, the dollar, and oil all were relatively flat. On the other hand, there was more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT). But the markets watched it all with as much interest as

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America’s trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called “Annihilation Days” in the stock and bond markets

There’s not much on this week’s economic calendar. The only big event was supposed to occur on Wednesday, July 9. That would have been 90 days after President Donald Trump postponed his April 2 reciprocal tariffs on America’s trading

The fireworks started early in the stock market last week. On Thursday, the day before Independence Day, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose to new record highs (chart). In addition, their 50-day moving averages rose above their

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday’s report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31,

There is method to President Donald Trump’s madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump’s tariffs. June’s CPI inflation rate is tracking around

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don’t expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by

Since the start of the current bull market during October 2022, we recommended overweighting the S&P 500 Information Technology sector and have been especially positive on the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry. We stuck with that recommendation during the correction

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today

This morning, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with Qatar reporting

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday’s White House address, if Iran doesn’t

On Saturday night, the US attacked Iran’s three nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump announced this in a social media post at 7:50 p.m. EST. In a short speech at 10:00 p.m., he said that

President Donald Trump has been calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. The Fed chair has been the object of intensifying schoolyard jabs from the President. “We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed,” Trump told

The stock market held up remarkably well today considering that President Donald Trump abruptly left the Group of Seven meeting in the Canadian Rockies this morning. On his way home, he warned Tehran’s residents to get out of town

Stock prices rose this morning as oil prices fell a bit on news reports that the Mullahs want Israel to stop pounding them and are willing to resume nuclear talks with the US as long as the US doesn’t

The moment Fed watchers have waited for is finally here—albeit with less drama than many believed a few weeks back. As we’ve long said, the two-day June Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Tue-Wed) should come and go with the

Israel is in the middle of the Middle East. Iran’s Mullahs have been threatening Israel’s existence since they overthrew the Shah of Iran in February 1979. There has been a covert war between the two since then. It turned

May’s PPI inflation report, released today, was lower than expected as was May’s CPI inflation report yesterday. The PPI final demand for personal consumption edged down to 2.6% y/y in May, while the CPI rose only 2.4% during the

The stock market didn’t do much today. Neither did the bond market. But the price of a barrel of crude oil rose, and so did the price of an ounce of gold. President Donald Trump announced another deal with China.

In recent months, the “soft” economic data releases have been weak, while the “hard” data have been strong. The former includes surveys of consumers, small business owners, and purchasing managers. We’ve been betting on the resilience of the economy, as confirmed by the hard data. Stock investors seem

In the hilarious comedy movie “What About Bob?,” Bill Murray, who plays Bob, tells his shrink that “there are two types of people in this world: those who like Neil Diamond and those who don’t.” There also seem to

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump’s trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT)

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday’s better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof.

President Donald Trump said today that he had a “very good talk” with China’s President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond,