Last Thursday on September 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released several very significant upward revisions to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real Gross Domestic Income (GDI), personal income, and personal saving. Collectively, they blew away the hard landing scenario. They

Stock prices and bond yields dipped while oil prices jumped this morning. In Washington, a senior White House official said the US is actively preparing to defend Israel against another direct missile attack by Iran. The official added that

Over the past several days, China has unleashed several fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. China investor Jason Hu called these the “twin bazookas” policy of “print money and spend money.” It’s having an immediate effect, at least on stock prices. The

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. The Fed started a new monetary easing cycle on September 18, cutting the federal funds rate by 50bps. The question now is: How hard will it press on the gas pedal? Given

We asked the very same question at the start of September, and were hard pressed to come up with an answer. We concluded: “So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are

Hard luck for the hard-landers today. Today’s GDP report was full of upward revisions: (1) GDP versus GDI. Some of the hard-landers expected GDP to be revised lower since the past few quarters’ data had shown a large gap between

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan.

Chinese stocks rose 4.1% overnight thanks to the flurry of easing measures by China’s central bank (chart). The People’s Bank of China lowered bank reserve requirements, cut interest rates, and will provide leverage to brokers to buy stocks. Propping up stocks with

The US is a tranquil island in a sea of troubles. Geopolitical turmoil poses a threat to the continued prosperity of the US. Like Hamlet, American foreign policymakers need to answer the following question: “Whether ’tis nobler in the

So far, September isn’t living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, “What Could

This week’s economic indicators should confirm our view that the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps (rather than 25bs) last week just as the economy is rebounding from its recent soft patch. Fed Governor Chris Waller’s

We’ve focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That ’70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing oil prices and inflation to

Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the Coincident Economic Index rose to a new record

The Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps today. This marks the end of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle that started during March 2022, which was aimed at bringing inflation back down to 2.0% even if

Today, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model raised Q3’s real GDP growth rate to 3.0% (saar) from 2.5% following the release of solid retail sales and industrial production reports for August (chart). Leading the way was an upward revision in

In the past, most of the Fed’s monetary easing cycles were triggered by financial crises that quickly morphed into economy-wide credit crunches, which caused recessions. Since 1960, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate (FFR) by more than 500

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens famously begins, ”It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Two weeks ago was the worst week for the stock market so far this year. Last week was the best week for the stock market so

The main event on the economic calendar this week is the FOMC meeting (Wed). The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR), but with a heated debate among Fed watchers over whether it will be 25bps or 50bps. Perhaps more

Yesterday, stock prices initially fell sharply following August’s CPI report, but AI fever quickly turned the S&P 500 around to a 1% gain. Yesterday, Oracle announced it is taking orders for the first “zettascale” AI supercomputer, which will be

This morning’s CPI report showed that inflation continues to moderate. Nevertheless, stock prices initially fell sharply on the news. While the headline CPI was up 0.2% m/m as expected, the core rose 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%. That minor difference

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China’s recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to trim the outlook for global oil

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m. Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn’t need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a

This week’s economic indicators will be primarily focused on inflation. Barring any unexpected surprises on the inflation front, the financial markets may care more about the few labor market indicators. The FOMC entered the blackout period ahead of its

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update of his take on the stock market from a trading perspective. Here’s his reply: “Even with the recent decline in the stock market, I’m still recommending a cautious/defensive approach to stocks. My two biggest

Something doesn’t make sense. Why are stock prices falling when the Fed is set to lower interest rates to avert a recession and to stop the unemployment rate from rising by boosting economic growth? We had a glimpse of

Executive Summary: The latest batch of labor market indicators has caused a temporary “growth scare,” in our opinion. Concerns that economic growth is slowing have convinced the markets that the Fed will open up the easing spigots and cut

We acknowledge that today’s employment report was weaker than we expected, but there were pockets of strength. We also acknowledge (as the financial markets expect) that this means the Fed now is more likely to cut the federal funds

Oops: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We speculated that a leak of that information might have caused Tuesday’s

During the first two trading days of September, stock prices, oil prices, and bond yields fell sharply; the Department of Justice (DOJ) subpoenaed Nvidia in its antitrust probe; Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his hawkish monetary

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices,