We’ve contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the pandemic. We disagreed with the view that it was weakening. Now we are turning more upbeat about the outlook for employment.

After languishing for the past couple of years, manufacturing gauges in both the US and China improved in November. Could this be the start of a rolling recovery for both countries’ goods producers? We think so, though a tariff

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale

For better or worse, Trump’s New World Order will certainly be different from Biden’s Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by

This is the time of the year when we all count our blessings. The Yardeni Research team thanks you for your interest in our research. We wish you a great Thanksgiving tomorrow with your family and friends at your

Last night, President Trump posted on social media that he will slap a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada his first day in office. The tariff will remain in effect until fentanyl, other drugs, and

The Bond Vigilantes like Scott Bessent, who was nominated to be US Treasury Secretary by Donald Trump yesterday. Their vote of confidence was reflected in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which fell to 4.28% from 4.42% at the

We are increasingly asked about the outlook for Bitcoin. We don’t have a clue because it doesn’t provide investors with any way to value it. We know that the supply of the cryptocurrency is limited, which is why the

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well.

Fed officials may be cutting rates because they are worrying about the ominous “long and variable lags” of their monetary policy tightening from March 2022 through August 2024. But there are still no signs that those lags exist as

In recent decades, the Digital Revolution has eclipsed the Industrial Revolution. Today, AI is a technology that has evolved from this relatively new revolution. AI simply represents another leap forward in data processing. During the 1950s through the 1970s,

We are often asked whether the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That’s a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are

The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouettes are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in Dallas. He said that “the economy is

We’ve been bullish on the dollar since the summer. Since the Fed’s September meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 5.8% (chart). Roughly half of that move has occurred since last Tuesday’s US elections. The strong dollar confirms

Today’s CPI report suggests that inflation may be getting stuck north of the Fed’s 2.0% target. The headline and core CPI inflation rates rose 2.6% and 3.3% y/y during October. Goods prices are still deflating. But supercore inflation, rent

The NFIB survey of small business owners was released today showing a record high in their uncertainty index during October (chart). That’s not surprising since the polls showed that the presidential race was too close to call, raising the

Executive Summary: The new tariffs likely under Trump 2.0 could be means to great ends for the US by increasing the US’s trade negotiating leverage—or they could backfire and cause a trade war that curtails global economic growth, which is

Over the past three years, most American economists believed that a recession would be necessary to bring inflation down to 2.0% in the US. While the US economy managed to avoid a downturn, those predictions may have been right.

Just after Donald Trump won the presidential race on November 8, 2016, we observed that the economy and stock market were charged up with “animal spirits,” a term coined by John Maynard Keynes meaning spontaneous optimism. Animal spirits are

The week ahead will provide updates on inflation, consumer spending, and manufacturing. We expect inflation might have stalled in October, interrupting its decline toward the Fed’s 2.0% target. We still expect a solid increase in inflation-adjusted incomes last month,

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today as widely expected. We expected it as well, though we still believe that the now 75bps cut in the FFR since September 18 is

Donald Trump’s win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will continue through the end of the decade

We may or may not know tonight who will be the next president, but we should know which party will win a majority in the Senate and the House. It appears that Republicans are likely to do so. In

Investors often rejoice when a stock they own is selected to join a major market index. Index funds collectively have trillions of dollars in assets under management and must buy the stock in bulk, giving a boost to its

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph’s analysis often confirmed Ed’s fundamental analysis. So in our spare time, we

The blockbuster event in the week ahead is Tuesday’s presidential election. We’re rooting for gridlock, or a divided government. Both parties seem intent on passing policies that would widen the federal government budget deficit that’s already too wide. Notwithstanding the stimulative

Some of the air is coming out of the AI trade. Super Micro Computer hasn’t been super recently. It fell 12% today after auditor Ernst & Young resigned due to inaccurate financial reporting and is now down 66% over the past

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has