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A daily deep dive into the market news, movement, and indicators.
Executive Summary: When there’s no recession on the horizon, earnings reporting seasons invariably pleasantly surprise as actual results top analysts’ consensus expectations. This earnings season is no exception. Today, we look at the impacts that S&P 500 companies’ December-quarter
Executive Summary: Today, we analyze the analysts, noting that they tend be influenced by stock market meltups—thus fueling the meltups—and during meltups tend to raise their long-term earnings growth rates unrealistically high. Nevertheless, we explain why we follow their
Executive Summary: ISM’s purchasing managers surveys suggest that the manufacturing segment of the economy may be recovering from its rolling recession over the past two years. The stronger services sector continues to do well. Today, we break down which
Executive Summary: The pandemic distorted the economy in many ways, including derailing the productivity boom that we’d been expecting would characterize this decade—our Roaring 2020s scenario. That boom now may be back on track; productivity growth was well above
Executive Summary: Now that investors’ recession fears have abated, they’re focusing on company fundamentals again, so good corporate news is having a stronger bullish impact. Additionally, investors are excited about the potential of AI and the prospect of Fed
Executive Summary: The runaway inflation of the 1970s was whipped only after Paul Volcker took over as Fed chief, doing the deed but not without precipitating a recession. Powell’s efforts to engineer “immaculate disinflation,” lowering inflation without a recession,
Executive Summary: Bank stocks have been rallying, with investors shrugging off concerns about commercial real estate loans and net interest margin pressures even as bank analysts cut 2024 revenue and earnings estimates. Will big banks’ Q4 earnings reports Friday change
Executive Summary: The point between Fed tightening and easing is a good time to reconsider the widely accepted long-and-variable-lags theory of monetary policy. Is the economy still vulnerable to recession from the lagged effects of the 2022-2023 tightening round?