Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research’s flagship offering.

A daily deep dive into the market news, movement, and indicators.

Inflation: The Ugly,The Good & The Bad

Executive Summary: As the war in the Middle East escalates, it could send the oil price flying toward $100 per barrel and wipe out our expectations of continued moderation in US inflation (notwithstanding March’s anomalous CPI). … Barring that

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Onshoring, Financials & Magnetic Levitation

Executive Summary: Federal incentives coaxing manufacturers to produce in the USA are hitting their mark. Willing takers may see up to 15% of their factory construction costs covered by Uncle Sam. Some states are sweetening the deal further. Jackie

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The Seasons, They Go Round & Round

Executive Summary: The Q1 reporting season should be a good one, with plenty of S&P 500 companies exceeding analysts’ expectations, Joe reports. His analysis of patterns in estimate revisions as reporting seasons approach shows the stage is set for

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A Matter Of Interest

Executive Summary: Today, we examine a plausible and concerning scenario for the stock market: The war in the Middle East drives the price of oil above $100 a barrel. That would trigger expectations of resurgent inflation à la the

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Hooray! The Recession Is Over

Executive Summary: There was no recession last year, but the widespread expectation of one depressed certain economic activities, like hiring. With that depressant now lifted, several labor market indicators shot to record highs in March. … Consumer spending has

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Jobs, Earnings& Sweden

Executive Summary: The widespread expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates this year is linked to the widespread expectation that the labor market will weaken. Both may be misguided. If the economy remains resilient and the labor market

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The Amazing Flying Machine

Executive Summary: The US economy is flying high and should continue to do so. It has defied the past two years’ widespread expectations that it would land hard or fall into recession. In fact, last year’s real GDP growth

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Housing, Drug Stores & IPOs

Executive Summary: If the market for existing homes revs up as mortgage rates drop, will homebuilders be able to clear their excess inventories? Investors don’t seem worried, Jackie notes. … Also: The sole constituent of the S&P 500 Drug

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Central Banks & Profit Margins

Executive Summary: Melissa reviews the challenges facing the central banks of Japan, China, and the Eurozone as they eye—or make—monetary policy moves. The BOJ is finally unwinding its extreme monetary ease (no more sub-zero interest rates!). The PBOC is

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More On The Return Of The Fed Put

Executive Summary: Reading between the lines of Fed Chair Powell’s recent press conference, he seems to be reassuring financial markets that the Fed has their backs. We see that in his emphasis that labor market weakness—should it unexpectedly arise—could

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Another Post On Our Post-Modern Monetary Theory

Executive Summary: Is the “Fed Put” back? Might the Fed’s assurances that interest rates will be brought down this year (as long as inflation behaves as expected) fuel irrational exuberance among investors? And what if interest rates really don’t

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China & South Korea

Executive Summary: China’s economic woes are having a disinflationary domino effect on the economies of its major trading partners; the US is a case in point. The heightened trade tensions that might result could prompt those trading partners to

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Nvidia, Refiners & Robots

Executive Summary: With excitement over Nvidia’s AI-enabling offerings never greater than after its GTC conference this week, Jackie offers a timely word of caution: Nvidia investors would do well to keep an eye out for the peaking of the

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Mixed Emotions

Executive Summary: Confidence measures among both consumers and small business owners are depressed, somewhat counterintuitively given the strength of the economy. Depressed sentiment doesn’t typically cause recessions, and the Fed has plenty of room to ease, nipping in the

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 Post-Modern Monetary Theory 

Executive Summary: Unlike in January, investors’ rate-cut expectations now appear to be in sync with FOMC members’ projections. Both seem to be anticipating two or three 25-basis-point cuts over the coming months. … Whether the apolitical Fed might time

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Cisco Vs Nvidia & AI Goes To School

Executive Summary: A quarter century ago, people saw Cisco as a way to invest in the enormous potential of the Internet. Investors bid up its shares, and purchasing managers over-ordered its products, expecting rationing since supplies were tight. What

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CPI, Earnings & Taiwan

Executive Summary: Inflation is well under control, in our opinion, as February’s CPI—excluding the anomalous shelter component—is right around the Fed’s 2% y/y target. But with retail sales suggesting strong consumer spending, the Fed needn’t rush to ease. …

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 As The World Churns

Executive Summary: The US economy is outperforming most other countries, keeping the dollar strong. The global economic weakness has depressed the prices of commodities, especially oil, and helped moderate inflation. But globalization is alive and well: Export volumes are

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‘Pent-Up Exuberance’

Executive Summary: Is Bostic on to something? We think the Atlanta Fed president is right to warn about “pent-up exuberance,” the business community’s readiness to pounce on opportunities en masse the minute interest rates drop. Demand then could surge,

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Inventories, China & Norway’s EV Roadtrip

Executive Summary: If Target’s recent quarterly earnings report is indicative, retailers have reached the light at the end of the excessive-inventory tunnel. Jackie shares what Target management had to say about the benefits of appropriate inventory levels now that they’ve

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Oil, Brazil & Earnings

Executive Summary: OPEC + is extending its oil production cuts in an effort to support oil prices amid sluggish global economic growth and rising oil output from outside the cartel. Today, we look at world oil demand and supplies.

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Around The World: Muddling & Chugging Along

Executive Summary:  Some of the major economies of the world are in recessions or nearly so, but the global economy is holding up thanks to the strong US economy. Perversely, several global stock markets are at record highs, with

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The Elephant (& The Donkey) In The Room

Executive Summary: Bouts of geopolitical or domestic political strife usually don’t derail the US stock market. Investors tend to divorce politics from their decision making, counting on wars to end and gridlock to keep regulation-happy lawmakers in check. Only

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Materials, Earnings & Nvidia’s AI

Executive Summary: Looking at the S&P 500’s ytd performance by sector can be deceptive. You’d never guess that one underperforming sector, Materials, is home to three industries among the S&P 500’s top performing. Also not apparent is the breadth

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Another Happy-Go-Lucky Earnings Season 

Executive Summary: When there’s no recession on the horizon, earnings reporting seasons invariably pleasantly surprise as actual results top analysts’ consensus expectations. This earnings season is no exception. Today, we look at the impacts that S&P 500 companies’ December-quarter

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Is The Global Economy In A Recession?

Executive Summary: A few major economies of the world are in recessions currently, but the global economy as a whole is not—thanks mostly to the strong US economy holding it aloft. China is in a recession for reasons we’ve

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The Roaring 1990s: Déjà Vu All Over Again? 

Executive Summary: Many of this decade’s economic and financial market trends bear a striking resemblance to those of the 1990s. That was a decade in which a stock market meltup preceded a meltdown (in the early 2000s), so monitoring

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Consumers, Tech Infusions & AI

Executive Summary: With good incomes and debt that isn’t growing faster than incomes, consumers have been spending apace over the past quarter, but selectively. Jackie shares insights into what they’ve been buying and passing up, gleaned from the quarterly

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AI Isn’t Intelligent

Executive Summary: The AI gold rush supports our Roaring 2020s scenario. However, while AI sounds intelligent, it isn’t. As its more credible disinformation spreads across the Internet, it’s bound to cause trouble. Fingers crossed that its creators smarten it

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