Executive Summary: We had expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil would have subsided by now, and investors probably assumed the same since the financial markets have been so okay with it all in recent weeks. But the resilience of the economy,

Executive Summary: Banks and brokerages are beneficiaries of Trump 2.0 policies, particularly the reduced regulations they’ll be bound by. The S&P 500’s Investment Banking & Brokerage industry and its Diversified Banks industry have record-high earnings expectations and the ytd share

Executive Summary: Digital currencies are coming, but the US and China are taking opposite stances on the form they’ll take. Trump favors stablecoins issued by private-sector companies and forbids the US from pursuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Xi

Executive Summary: The labor market has held up well in the face of Trump’s Tariff Turmoil, and the financial markets were cheered by June’s higher-than-expected payroll employment. But Ed sees more weakness than strength June’s employment report. The fact that

Executive Summary: President Trump is determined to lower the interest paid on government debt one way or the other. One way is replacing Fed Chair Powell with a Trump loyalist who tries to convince the rest of the FOMC that

Executive Summary: While Americans have been traveling a lot and by all modes available, the flight paths of travel industries’ stock indexes so far this year are all over the map. Jackie explores what’s up—and down. … Also: The S&P

Executive Summary: Monetary authorities around the world are stocking their national reserves with gold, driving up the metal’s price. De-dollarization is on the agendas of nations that are US adversaries for sure. The move to gold started after the US

Executive Summary: When Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill passes, it will likely make deficits larger and increase the debt over the next 10 years. The US bond market hasn’t been batting an eye. Was former US Vice President Dick Cheney right

Executive Summary: Though the stock market is back on record-high ground after a couple of big worries have dissipated, investors remain wary, sentiment readings show. Slowing economic activity has ascended to the top of their worry list. Today, Dr Ed

Executive Summary: Aircraft-related stock prices have been soaring recently, making the S&P 500 Industrials sector the number-one performer this year to date among the index’s 11 sectors. Jackie examines the reasons and highlights some of the sector’s standout industries and

Executive Summary: Asian economies dodged a Strait of Hormuz closure after the US bombed Iran’s three major nuke sites on Saturday, June 21. Most of the oil and gas passing through the Strait—which Iran won’t be closing in retaliation for

Executive Summary: Yes, Trump’s tariffs are hurting China’s economy, but a bigger damper on GDP growth is anemic consumer spending, William reports. China is experiencing deflation and exporting it to the rest of the world. President Xi has tried to

Executive Summary: Saturday night, American bombers obliterated three key nuclear sites in Iran. We think Iran won’t retaliate and will sue for peace. … Meanwhile in the US, foreign tourists might not be crowding the airports as usual. If Trump’s

Executive Summary: The escalation of war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike and thrown prior oil price forecasts out the window. Jackie takes a look at the dynamics affecting oil pricing in light of the recent

Executive Summary: Much ink has been spilled on the Magnificent-7 stocks’ outsized influence over the S&P 500’s performance given the group’s huge share of the index’s capitalization. Are other stock markets of the world similarly weighed down (or buoyed up)

Executive Summary: Fear of Trump’s tariff impacts has already sapped the life out of Japan’s consumer sector, raising the specter of stagflation and thwarting the Bank of Japan’s tightening plans. If BOJ Governor Ueda fails to navigate the economy away

Executive Summary: Now that China and the US are negotiating nicely, Jackie explores the pain their standoff caused businesses on both sides of the Pacific and the compromises recently struck. Were investors who bet the new deals struck would benefit

Executive Summary: With South Korea’s new president promising financial reforms that are bound to reward shareholders, the country’s stock market is sailing on a wave of optimism. The days of the long-standing “Korea discount” may be numbered, William reports. …

Executive Summary: As investors, central bankers, and economists the world over await the US monetary policy decision to emerge from next week’s FOMC meeting, William and Ed assess where Fed officials’ heads are at. Their recent speeches don’t suggest urgency

Executive Summary: Over the past three and a half years, the US economy has defied the recession expectations of many, remaining uncommonly resilient in the face of stress tests including Fed tightening, an oil price spike, and most recently Trump’s

Executive Summary: If only the US government had taken the threat of dependence on China’s rare earth minerals more seriously when it had the chance, China wouldn’t hold the trump card now. Jackie recaps the recommendations of a congressional study

Executive Summary: Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has undermined the US’s credit worthiness and unsteadied the dollar. For countries harboring currency-dominance aspirations, that’s been a blessing in disguise. Today, William explains why China’s aspirations for the yuan won’t bear fruit anytime soon.

Executive Summary: How damaging to the US economy are Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff proclamations? The stock market is barely reacting to them anymore, but consumers remain worried about the inflation implications of tariffs, according to “soft” survey data. Even so,

Executive Summary: Defense stocks are bifurcating: The underperforming have-nots are the big DOD contractors, with meager share price gains so far this year, if any. The outperforming haves are innovative defense tech companies redefining not only how war is waged

Executive Summary: The Trump administration’s protectionist policies have undermined the US dollar’s strength, but do they put its global supremacy at risk? No, there is no realistic contender among global currencies. Today, Melissa debunks the notion that the euro has

Executive Summary: After last week’s portentous Japanese government bond auction, in which demand was so weak as to be off the charts, William explains what went wrong and why. Contributing factors included the BOJ’s halted tightening owing to “tariff haze,”

Executive Summary: Tech companies are already putting AI to work to ramp up their efficiency and productivity and to pare down their workforces. Non-tech companies are sure to follow. Jackie takes a look at where this evolution stands today and

Executive Summary: The headlines were wrong: Global investors in US Treasury bonds didn’t beat a hasty retreat when Moody’s downgraded the US’s debt rating. A “Liz Truss Moment” it wasn’t. Asian investors and policymakers already knew what Moody’s had to

Executive Summary: Intractable demographic problems are straining China’s economic system and thwarting policymakers’ attempts to battle deflation. Rapidly declining birthrates are providing fewer new consumers, and elderly Chinese are savers, not spenders. Amid these pressures, falling prices “take on a

Executive Summary: Two scenarios to put on your radar: Bond prices might melt down if the Bond Vigilantes are roused by the downgrading of the US’s sovereign debt rating and/or the prospect that Trump’s tax-cut bill worsens the federal budget