Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research’s flagship offering.

A daily deep dive into the market news, movement, and indicators.

US Dollar, Gold, Brazil & MegaCap-8

Executive Summary:  Is the world “de-dollarizing”? Such chatter abounds, but the greenback’s role as the de facto reserve currency is secure, concludes Eric. While China has been buying a lot of gold, it’s not necessarily selling US assets to

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Give Them Some Credit

Executive Summary: Yes, consumer credit card delinquencies rose during Q1 back up to 2012 levels. But no, that doesn’t indicate the burgeoning stress in the credit system that recession proponents have been waiting (and hoping) for. Consumer borrowing is

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Dow 40,000 & Counting

Executive Summary: Boomer-led households’ collective net worth has skyrocketed 19-fold since 1990. As the generation has lived long and prospered, so has the stock market (rising 40-fold over their adulthood) and the US economy (with nominal GDP up eightfold

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Natural Gas, Earnings & VPPs 

Executive Summary: A warm winter and a pause in the development of future LNG plants has pushed natural gas prices down at a time when domestic demand for the fuel is increasing. Could a hot summer, data center demand,

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The Federal Budget Deficit Extravaganza

Executive Summary: The widening US deficit has raised alarm bells, particularly since it’s doing so during an economic expansion. But if inflation moderates while the economy continues to grow, we might just dodge—or at least push off—the day of

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Are Consumers Cracking?

Executive Summary: Today, we look at cracks in the story that consumers are cracking. Crack proponents expect consumers to start saving more and spending less because they’ve depleted their excess saving from the pandemic years. We expect personal saving

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Robots, Real Estate & Energy Storage

Executive Summary: Rockwell’s March-quarter results were surprisingly weak for a beneficiary of two broad investment themes—onshoring and automation. Customers’ excess inventories were partly to blame. Now earnings are expected to decline this fiscal year. … Also: Jackie surveys the

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Credit, Earnings & G7 Unemployment

Executive Summary: Today, our new Chief Markets Strategist Eric Wallerstein reviews takeaways from the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, for Q1. With fewer banks tightening credit and more reporting improved loan demand, there’s no sign of a

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Earnings Are Blooming

Executive Summary: We don’t expect any recession this year that the Fed would have to address by easing. But since some investors think that may happen, the Fed Put is back. With it comes increased risk of a stock

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Almost ‘Everything’s Coming Up Roses’

Executive Summary: Investors in both stock and bond markets are suddenly blooming with optimism. Both markets rallied on Friday’s (mostly) positive employment report, including yet another sub-4.0% jobless rate and despite some negatives in the report. Stoking the optimism,

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Copper, Semis & Nvidia’s Buying Spree

Executive Summary: The copper price has skyrocketed in recent months, but not for the usual reason of strong global growth. Instead, Jackie reports, a perfect storm of circumstances has created an unusually tight market, with uncommon supply constraints at

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Eurozone Recovering

Executive Summary: The European Central Bank is widely expected to start easing in June, lowering interest rates at a measured pace to prevent a weakening of the euro. But real GDP growth in the Eurozone already resumed last quarter

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The Great Leaps Forward & Backward

Executive Summary: Economic indicators aren’t always indicative of what’s happening with economies. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to cry “Wolf!,” as it’s been doing for more than two years. Yet no US recession is in sight. That’s confirmed

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Stagflation? Not!

Executive Summary: One quarter does not stagflation make. True, the March quarter’s real GDP growth rate was down from the December quarter’s, while inflation was up—a combination that calls to mind “stagflation.” But the current economic scenario is nothing like

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Banks, Defense & AI Creep

Executive Summary: Two regional banks’ Q1 earnings reports highlighted the drag higher interest rates are having on results and showed that office building real estate loan defaults may be manageable. Zions and Truist managements struck some optimistic notes about the

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Copper, Oil, Earnings & Australia

Executive Summary: We often call copper “the metal with the PhD in Economics,” because its price rises and falls in step with the strength/weakness of the global economy. So why is Dr. Copper suddenly acting like the global economy

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Matters Of Interest

Executive Summary: It’s widely believed that high interest rates act as brakes on economic activity. But do they? Today, we re-examine our fringe view that perhaps the economy is so strong because of high interest rates, not despite them.

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House Of Mirrors

Executive Summary: Today, we rant about rent and the housing market. Like a fun house mirror without the fun, several housing-related forces are distorting economic activity. There’s the distortive way rent inflation is measured in the headline CPI; if

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Navigating Through The Fog Of War

Executive Summary: The global economy is growing slowly, tugged along by the strength of the US economy. Certain indicators suggest improving global growth, but their messages could be deceptive: The wars are likely hiking commodity prices, and inflation is

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The Fog Of War

Executive Summary: The geopolitical backdrop for investing is foggy with uncertainties. Israel and Iran are flailing with no strategic plan on either side, their aggressions simply reactions to the other’s provocations. Financial markets are bracing for global economic impacts

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Inflation: The Ugly,The Good & The Bad

Executive Summary: As the war in the Middle East escalates, it could send the oil price flying toward $100 per barrel and wipe out our expectations of continued moderation in US inflation (notwithstanding March’s anomalous CPI). … Barring that

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Onshoring, Financials & Magnetic Levitation

Executive Summary: Federal incentives coaxing manufacturers to produce in the USA are hitting their mark. Willing takers may see up to 15% of their factory construction costs covered by Uncle Sam. Some states are sweetening the deal further. Jackie

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The Seasons, They Go Round & Round

Executive Summary: The Q1 reporting season should be a good one, with plenty of S&P 500 companies exceeding analysts’ expectations, Joe reports. His analysis of patterns in estimate revisions as reporting seasons approach shows the stage is set for

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A Matter Of Interest

Executive Summary: Today, we examine a plausible and concerning scenario for the stock market: The war in the Middle East drives the price of oil above $100 a barrel. That would trigger expectations of resurgent inflation à la the

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Hooray! The Recession Is Over

Executive Summary: There was no recession last year, but the widespread expectation of one depressed certain economic activities, like hiring. With that depressant now lifted, several labor market indicators shot to record highs in March. … Consumer spending has

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Jobs, Earnings& Sweden

Executive Summary: The widespread expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates this year is linked to the widespread expectation that the labor market will weaken. Both may be misguided. If the economy remains resilient and the labor market

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The Amazing Flying Machine

Executive Summary: The US economy is flying high and should continue to do so. It has defied the past two years’ widespread expectations that it would land hard or fall into recession. In fact, last year’s real GDP growth

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