Executive Summary: President Trump’s policies are regrading industry playing fields across economic sectors. Jackie discusses some of the ramifications for the companies hurt and helped. … If Trump 2.0’s attempts to dismantle Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act succeed, they would pose

Executive Summary: Today, we look at how Trump 2.0’s trade negotiations are impacting Asian nations’ economic policy decisions. From his seat in Japan, William describes the collective sigh of relief when President Trump slashed tariffs on China Monday and what

Executive Summary: China’s insidious deflation pressures are now evident in its producer and consumer price data. Government measures to stimulate the economy haven’t addressed the cause of the deflation problem—that the Chinese spend too little and save too much in

Executive Summary:  Even though Q1 earnings were fabulous, most economists, industry analysts, and corporate managements have low hopes that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil won’t dunk the US economy into a recession this year. Not us: We’re counting on the economy’s resilience.

Executive Summary: Oil prices have sputtered amid fears of weak global oil demand in a trade-warring world. Today, Jackie reviews news that bears upon the supply/demand balance underpinning oil pricing. The decision by OPEC+ to no longer underproduce should

Executive Summary: The Eurozone is improving economically as the US remains cloaked in uncertainty, its exceptionality being questioned by some. Melissa explores the countervailing forces affecting the Europe’s economic growth prospects and suggests that its equity markets might offer

Executive Summary: The reordering of global trade patterns stemming from Trump’s Tariff Turmoil is having distinct ramifications for market players and policymakers the world over, as William explains today. Inexpensive Chinese imports flooding into Europe’s auto markets are confounding

Executive Summary: We believe in the resilience of the US economy. Recent years’ monetary tightening didn’t bring on a recession; this year’s tariff turmoil isn’t likely to either. We’re lowering the odds we see of a recession back to

Executive Summary: Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has resulted in tectonic upheavals of the operating environments companies navigate in myriad industries, and few chief executives know what the future will bring or how to plan for it. Today, Jackie reports on

Executive Summary: Investors can dismiss worries that the US dollar’s weakness presages an emerging-market-style crisis. That’s impossible for the US. Foreign investors need dollars to invest in US assets, which retain their clear advantage in attracting investment capital. We

Executive Summary: In setting cartoonishly large tariffs on China, Trump assumes the US has the upper hand. But does China really need America as much as Trump thinks? President Xi hasn’t come crawling to Trump, pleading for softer terms; he’s

Executive Summary: A dovish faction has been forming within the Federal Reserve Board, dissenting from Chief Powell’s hawkish party line. Rather than wait and see whether tariffs deliver greater blows to the economic or the inflation outlook before changing

Executive Summary: The US oil and gas industry isn’t in the direct line of Trump’s tariff fire, but it’s affected nonetheless, Jackie explains. Slower global economic growth in a trade-constricted world will dampen energy demand; that prospect is hurting oil

Executive Summary: Importers are responsible for paying tariff bills, but it’s Jane and Joe Consumer who will carry most of the burden. Importers will try to protect their profit margins by offloading the tariff costs to their export partners and

Executive Summary: Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has put the world on edge. A new world order may be the ultimate result, but for now we’ve got the New World Disorder, leaving everyone scrambling to adjust to Trump’s unpredictable policy pivots. The

Executive Summary: How is the US consumer doing? Jackie examines the evidence. Trump tariff turmoil likely distorted the clues in March retail sales, and Tesla and Amazon weighed on the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index. We take a look at

Executive Summary: Today, we evaluate whether China or the US has more leverage in the trade war. China has a good hand but depends heavily on the US consumer to absorb its production. Whichever side “wins,” the victory will come

Executive Summary: Tariffs are stagflationary, but consensus expectations may be overestimating the inflationary impact and underestimating the downside risks to growth. We evaluate the disinflationary forces that may counterbalance tariff-included price increases. … Also: The bond market’s recent volatility may

Executive Summary: Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term

Executive Summary: The best laid plans of many a CEO have been blown asunder by Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. Jackie reports on what corporate leaders are saying about the tariffs’ potential impacts and the strategies they’re considering to keep earnings aloft—and

Executive Summary: Global trade is being reordered, and the new US trade policies are likely to slow global economic growth over the near term. But for various reasons, we think the US stock market will outperform its foreign counterparts, especially

Executive Summary: Amid the recession fears heightened by Trump’s Tariff Turmoil, we take a look at what usually causes recessions. Our Credit Crisis Cycle (CCC) theory posits that financial system crises, unmitigated by intervention, lead to credit crunches. No such

Executive Summary: Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday, with the Stock Market Vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s Reign of Tariffs. Trump officials say they aim to make Main Street wealthy again even

Executive Summary: The onshoring trend that began under Trump 1.0 and was spurred on by Biden legislation is bound to accelerate with Trump 2.0’s tariffs. Several big corporations have announced new US factories in the blueprint stage already. … Also:

Executive Summary: With so much focus in the media on how the Trump tariffs can be expected to affect the US economy, Melissa today discusses how they’ll likely affect other countries. Surprisingly, China may be less vulnerable than initially assumed,

Executive Summary: Yesterday, we changed our stock market and economic projections owing to Trump’s “Reign of Tariffs”; today, we explain our thinking about the higher inflation we now expect. People’s expectations about future inflation are critical to how high inflation

Executive Summary: The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of

Executive Summary: Utilities long have had notoriously tepid demand, but that may change over the coming decade as more and more planned data centers plug into the grid. Jackie counters the argument that a bubble is brewing in data centers

Executive Summary: Fed officials presume that Trump 2.0’s tariffs will lead to one-time price increases. But should the Fed look through “transitory” inflation effects, or are they underweighting the risks of sustained inflationary pressure? … Melissa reports that Trump 2.0’s

Executive Summary: The actions of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be key to how the financial markets react to Trump 2.0’s economic agenda. Today, Eric shares insights into Bessent’s beliefs and proposals, which may have overly concerned investors recently. Bessent