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Executive Summary: Southern California’s devastating wildfires couldn’t have hit at a worse time. The regional insurance market has been in a dysfunctional state of flux, as some insurers have fled the risky market, others have hiked premiums to account for
Executive Summary: China gargantuan trade surplus won’t shrink until policymakers stimulate domestic demand. Yuan depreciation now risks capital flight. … In the UK, gilt yields have reached multi-year highs, raising the government’s borrowing costs to levels that might jeopardize its
Executive Summary: Is this year’s rotation of voting members on the FOMC likely to shift the monetary policy needle? Which way? Today, Eric identifies the new hawks and doves and speculates about how they might vote at January’s meeting. …
The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.
Short-form takes on current market events.
Today’s batch of December economic indicators in the US has mostly eased any downside concerns about the labor market, consumers, and the economy overall. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model is now showing Q4-2024 real GDP growth of 3.0%
Both stocks and bonds benefitted from good news across the earnings, macroeconomic, and geopolitical fronts today. Financial stocks jumped as big banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with better-than-expected results, and the S&P 500 rose 1.8%. Treasuries rallied, as December’s CPI
On the economic data front, today was mostly a Goldilocks day. December’s PPI was lower than expected. The NFIB survey of small business owners showed rising optimism and animal spirits. However, the Treasury reported that the federal budget deficit
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