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Executive Summary: China has been getting back at the US for imposing sanctions by targeting easy marks: US companies that do business there. Jackie discusses the tit-for-tat cold war that’s not likely to end soon and the companies, like Nvidia
Executive Summary: Will the new tariffs expected under Trump 2.0 be inflationary, driving up US producers’ input costs and the prices US consumers pay? We’re not worried for several reasons that Eric explains, including the offsetting effects of the strong
Executive Summary: The Fed has cut the federal funds rate more than enough. Further cutting in December, which the financial markets expect, could send one side of the Fed’s dual mandate in the wrong direction, since inflation remains sticky, while
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Short-form takes on current market events.
After today’s PPI release, we won’t be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like “Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause Rate Cutting Following Hot Inflation Data.” The current consensus seems to
Today’s CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps next week, and the Fed doesn’t like to surprise market expectations. The Nasdaq front-ran our
The stock market appeared calm ahead of tomorrow’s November CPI report, which is likely to show that supercore inflation (i.e., CPI services less shelter) remains stuck around 4.5% (chart). However, there was plenty of action just below the surface
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