QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday’s report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in

Read Now »

Correction: On Fed Governors’ Terms

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31,

Read Now »

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

There is method to President Donald Trump’s madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker

Read Now »

‘Summertime, And The Livin’ Is Easy’

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump’s tariffs. June’s CPI inflation rate is tracking around

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30–July 4

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don’t expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure

Read Now »

Semiconductors Leading The Stock Market Higher

Since the start of the current bull market during October 2022, we recommended overweighting the S&P 500 Information Technology sector and have been especially positive on the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry. We stuck with that recommendation during the correction

Read Now »

A New Day In The Middle East

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today

Read Now »

Ceasefire

This morning, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with Qatar reporting

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 23–27

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday’s White House address, if Iran doesn’t

Read Now »

“UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER”

The stock market held up remarkably well today considering that President Donald Trump abruptly left the Group of Seven meeting in the Canadian Rockies this morning. On his way home, he warned Tehran’s residents to get out of town

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 16–20

The moment Fed watchers have waited for is finally here—albeit with less drama than many believed a few weeks back. As we’ve long said, the two-day June Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Tue-Wed) should come and go with the

Read Now »

Betting On Bullish Hard Data, Not Bearish Soft Data

In recent months, the “soft” economic data releases have been weak, while the “hard” data have been strong. The former includes surveys of consumers, small business owners, and purchasing managers. We’ve been betting on the resilience of the economy, as confirmed by the hard data. Stock investors seem

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 9–13

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump’s trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT)

Read Now »

He Said, Xi Said

President Donald Trump said today that he had a “very good talk” with China’s President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond,

Read Now »

Mixed Bag

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% today on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators. Bond investors weren’t fazed by Elon Musk’s attack on President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” on Tuesday afternoon. Musk thinks it’s ugly: “This massive,

Read Now »

Another Happy-Go-Lucky Day

President Donald Trump didn’t raise any tariffs today. So it was a good day. Instead, Reuters reported today seeing a draft letter sent by the Trump administration asking countries to list their best proposals in a number of key

Read Now »

China’s Autos, Russia’s Gas & US Earnings Review

Executive Summary: Chinese automaker BYD’s rapid cornering of the global EV market is shifting into high gear with a 34% price cut. That’s bound to present tough choices for automakers everywhere. The situation is mirrored on the economic level, William

Read Now »

Mixed Signals

So is the economy slowing or speeding up? Yes, it is doing both according to today’s batch of economic indicators. No wonder that neither stocks nor bonds did much today. The calm in the stock market was notable given

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2–6

There’s no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we’ve been (objectively) calling Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: S&P 500 Earnings & Valuation

We now have LSEG’s I/B/E/S data for S&P 500 companies’ revenues per share and earnings per share during Q1. Both edged down on a q/q basis but showed solid gains on a y/y basis (chart). The profit margin edged

Read Now »