Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to “help some of the car companies” with his 25% auto tariff (chart).

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: “Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the goods-producing sector, consumer spending, and inflation. Macroeconomic data may be drowned out by more explosive volatility in the financial markets attributable to Trump’s Nitro Tariffs (TNT). In addition, the Q1

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: “With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year.” Our major concern was that the stock market’s bulls were discounting too

It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market: Bond Market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.45% this evening, up from a recent low of 4.01%

“Bond investors are the economy’s bond vigilantes. … So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets.” – Ed Yardeni, 1983 “I used

The S&P 500 is now down almost 19%. It closed at 4982.77 (chart). If it falls another 1.35% down to 4915.32, it will be in a bear market. The index was up sharply at the start of trading today,

After the stock market crashed on Thursday and Friday of last week, we have to conclude that any day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn’t down more than 1000 points is a good day. Today was an

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal

While Trump’s tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March’s CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely, and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning. On March 10, when

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to

President Donald Trump and his guests at the Rose Garden today celebrated Liberation Day. Stock investors won’t be celebrating tomorrow based on the plunge in futures prices tied to the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq-100. The Stock Market

Today’s batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on the economy during March. That’s the message from the month’s national ISM manufacturing purchasing managers survey. February’s construction spending report shows that this

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year,

Trump’s Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump). That’s when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America’s

This is a timely reprint of a September 9, 1985 Topical Study by Edward Yardeni titled “The Protectionist Road To Depression.” The original with charts can be found here. It is very relevant to today’s debate over the trade policies of the

President Trump’s Wednesday night announcement of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign motor vehicles caused a selloff in auto stocks today. Components such as engines and transmissions are also impacted, while previously trade-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will be slapped

Two months ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, “All I know is, I’m good for my $80 billion” regarding the $500 billion Stargate AI announcement. His comments followed the emergence of DeepSeek’s

Consumers are feeling okay about the present situation, but they are losing their confidence in the future. The obvious cause of their anxiety is Trump Turmoil 2.0. The Trump administration admits that its trade and DOGE policies might cause some economic pain in the short run but says they

“Helter-skelter” is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of the modus operandi of President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Then again, perhaps there is method to the madness. Perhaps it is

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: “I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there’s flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February’s PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren’t

Today’s batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word “uncertainty” 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it’s impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries,

The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let’s call it the “Trump Thump.” We aren’t convinced that the correction is

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates