QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

Another Day Of AI Fun In The Sun For Semis

Semiconductor stocks have certainly benefited from the AI boom. All those data centers being built will be filled with chips (chart). All those autonomous-driving vehicles will also be stuffed with chips, and so will humanoid robots. And they will

Read Now »

GOOD MARKET CALL: Gold

From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting. Today, let’s review and update our thoughts on the outlook for gold: (1) We first

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6–10

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who

Read Now »

A Bubble In Bubble Fears?

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we

Read Now »

What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to

Read Now »

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: “We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6

Read Now »

DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we’ve kept our

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29 – October 3

Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September’s hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won’t be if the government shuts down on October 1

Read Now »

Q3’s Earnings Season Is Coming

Before you know it, September will be over. It is likely to defy the month’s reputation of being a bad one for stocks (chart). Instead, the S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 6693.75 on Monday, September

Read Now »

Powell’s Irrational Exuberance Moment

During a speech in Providence, Rhode Island today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked whether he and his colleagues give any weight to the impact of their monetary policies on financial markets. He responded: “We do look at overall

Read Now »

Investing in the World

It’s a big world with lots of investment opportunities. We continue to favor the United States, but it’s hard to overweight the US when it already accounts for 64.7% of the market capitalization of the All Country World (ACW)

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22–26

The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: Party Like It’s 1999!?

The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all rose to record highs this past week. All were boosted by the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. Is the stock market back on the road to the same

Read Now »

Postpartum Impressions

Please see Dr Ed’s op-ed in today’s Financial Times titled “Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank’s new inflation target?” As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut

Read Now »

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15–19

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: The Oracle Of Austin

Last Wednesday, Larry Ellison, the executive chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, saw his net worth jump by $101 billion—the biggest one-day increase ever recorded on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—to $382 billion. That happened after the company announced

Read Now »

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Following yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI and today’s as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenters to that decision among voting members. Following today’s jump in

Read Now »

Lots Of News

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn’t move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August’s PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let’s review all

Read Now »

Earnings-Led Meltup?

We typically speak of stock market meltups as desirable for a limited time only, as they’re typically followed directly by meltdowns. On second thought: A stock market meltup might be alright after all. A meltdown needn’t follow it if it

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from “Apocalypse Now” featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation’s second-largest city.

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 8–12

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025.

Read Now »

US Labor Market Is In Balance

August’s employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month’s payrolls rose by just 22,000. June’s number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July’s number was revised up by 6,000

Read Now »

Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow’s employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC’s majority will turn dovish and will

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 2–5

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday’s pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July’s surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether

Read Now »