QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 27–31

The week ahead will see central banks commanding the spotlight as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England weigh in on both interest rates and the balance of economic risks.  All eyes will be on

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the

Read Now »

Economy Still Moving Forward

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow’s CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few

Read Now »

Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

A few weeks ago, we observed a bubble in fears of a bubble. The fearmongers see an “everything bubble” that will soon burst. The expression “the bubble in everything” began gaining traction during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chair

Read Now »

China’s Economy Has A Few Major Problems

China’s economy is struggling with excessive debt, deflation, excess capacity, and a rapidly aging population. China continues to rely on exports to support economic growth. China has been increasingly accused of dumping its excess production in world markets. This

Read Now »

Market Musings

Apple’s stock price hit a new record high today on a report that sales of this year’s iPhone models had started strongly. Shares of the tech giant climbed 3.9%, closing at $262.24 and helping the company surpass Microsoft to

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 20–24

We’re entering yet another week of limited visibility on the economy thanks to the government shutdown. This leaves markets attempting to fill the statistical void with private surveys, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the odd corporate report to

Read Now »

Cockroaches

“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s earnings conference call earlier this week in relation to the First Brands and Tricolor Holdings fallout. These are two auto-related companies that have recently declared bankruptcy.

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13–17

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it’s perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won’t be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies

Read Now »

Sweet Spot For Financials

Today, Oracle disclosed that its AI cloud business—particularly server rentals using Nvidia chips—is yielding very slim profit margins. That news weighed on the stock market, especially on technology stocks. Oracle’s stock price fell 2.5%. The Magnificent-7 declined 1.1%. Financial

Read Now »

Another Day Of AI Fun In The Sun For Semis

Semiconductor stocks have certainly benefited from the AI boom. All those data centers being built will be filled with chips (chart). All those autonomous-driving vehicles will also be stuffed with chips, and so will humanoid robots. And they will

Read Now »

GOOD MARKET CALL: Gold

From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting. Today, let’s review and update our thoughts on the outlook for gold: (1) We first

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6–10

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who

Read Now »

A Bubble In Bubble Fears?

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we

Read Now »

What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to

Read Now »

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: “We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6

Read Now »

DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we’ve kept our

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29 – October 3

Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September’s hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won’t be if the government shuts down on October 1

Read Now »

Q3’s Earnings Season Is Coming

Before you know it, September will be over. It is likely to defy the month’s reputation of being a bad one for stocks (chart). Instead, the S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 6693.75 on Monday, September

Read Now »

Powell’s Irrational Exuberance Moment

During a speech in Providence, Rhode Island today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked whether he and his colleagues give any weight to the impact of their monetary policies on financial markets. He responded: “We do look at overall

Read Now »

Investing in the World

It’s a big world with lots of investment opportunities. We continue to favor the United States, but it’s hard to overweight the US when it already accounts for 64.7% of the market capitalization of the All Country World (ACW)

Read Now »

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22–26

The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures

Read Now »

MARKET CALL: Party Like It’s 1999!?

The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all rose to record highs this past week. All were boosted by the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. Is the stock market back on the road to the same

Read Now »