Today’s batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word “uncertainty” 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it’s impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries,

The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let’s call it the “Trump Thump.” We aren’t convinced that the correction is

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn’t

February’s inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That’s because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCED inflation

Vertigo is a sensation of spinning or whirling such that the person or their surroundings appear to be moving. The stock market didn’t do much today, but everything else seemed to be spinning. The epicenter of all this vertigo

The stock market was whipsawed today by geopolitical developments. Stocks fell this morning when President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. They then recovered after Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire deal (pending Russia’s

The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don’t like tariffs, and they don’t like mass firings of federal workers. That’s because they don’t like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0’s focus on these measures could cause a recession with

Anything is possible in Trump World. We can’t rule out the possibility that a bear market started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high (chart). It could be like the “flash crashes” that occurred

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last

(1) Will S&P 500 indexes find support at their 200-day moving averages? We think so. Sentiment is quite bearish and the next batch of economic indicators should confirm the economy is growing. (2) Will the Nasdaq remain in its

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed

We’ve been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be

Stock prices are falling because Trump Turmoil 2.0 is making investors dizzy. Just today, President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. He also said that the US will impose tariffs on

February’s batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5,

In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old World Order. So investors are jittery, and a risk-off investment style is back in favor relative to a risk-on posture. They are questioning whether Trump 2.0

The stock market is in the midst of another growth scare, in our opinion. The latest batch of economic indicators has been weak. The current growth scare is reminiscent of last summer’s scare. It is just as likely to

Artificial intelligence, and all the capital spending that comes along with it, is here to stay. Nvidia reported today that its sales last quarter rose 78% y/y to $39.3 billion, and management’s revenue guidance of $43.0 billion (+/- 2%) for the current quarter was above the consensus estimate of $41.8 billion. Moreover, the

The stock market sold off this morning on a decline in February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), confirming a similar decline in February’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which was reported at the end of last week. The CSI survey tends

The DXY Dollar Index has fallen 3.0% since it peaked on January 13. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending and sentiment as well as gains in foreign currencies have weighed on the dollar. DeepSeek might also have contributed to the recent weakness

Our answer to the title’s question is that the stock market is still in choppy waters. Admittedly, it felt more like a waterfall on Thursday and Friday. However, the S&P 500 was down only 2.1% and that was from

The week ahead will feature Nvidia’s earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. That may be more important to the stock market than any of the economic indicators to be released during the week. Last week, Elon Musk’s

Disappointing forward guidance from Walmart weighed on the stock market today. The company’s shares fell 6.5% today despite a very strong Q4, mostly because the company’s 2025 earnings expectations fell short of analysts’ estimates. Part of the worry came

The Minutes from January’s FOMC meeting was released today. On balance, it confirmed that the Fed is on hold but still leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate some more if and when inflation falls closer to 2%. It’s a dovish

A late-day rally sent the S&P 500 up 0.24% to a new record high of 6,130. But gold had a much better day, jumping 1.8% to a record $2,952 per ounce. This “safe haven” asset is now up 10.6%

US stocks haven’t been exceptional since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024. That’s if the performances on the major country MSCI stock market indexes are measured in local currencies (chart). So far, Trump’s tariff turmoil

The shortened economic week ahead is an important one for our rolling recovery forecast in the manufacturing sector. January’s data suggested that industrial production may be starting a cyclical rebound (chart). This week’s early look at February’s regional business