The four-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims provides a real-time indicator of the labor market (chart). It has been improving recently as the four-week average of jobless claims has been falling. Employers may be less concerned about

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up to record high closes today, lifted by Nvidia and GE Vernova. Trump’s Tariff Turmoil appears to be subsiding, just as we expected it would during the summer. Investors are welcoming President Donald

The following is a note on imminent court decisions regarding President Donald Trump’s tariffs, written by Jim Lucier, one of the best Washington watchers we know and a good friend of Yardeni Research. Jim is one of the founders

Can’t we get a day without news coming out of the White House? Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an “exhaustive internal review” of the Fed’s “non-monetary policy operations.” He accused the central bank of “significant mission

The next couple of weeks will certainly be interesting. The FOMC will decide on whether to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) or not on July 30. On August 1, the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods imported

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the

This might be a good week to take a summer vacation. The economic data calendar is light. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell will speak in Washington, perhaps offering an update on his views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. He won’t

Liberation Day II is coming on August 1. President Donald Trump has stated that it won’t be postponed, unlike Liberation Day I, which was initially scheduled for April 2 but was postponed to July 9 and then to August

On Tuesday, June’s CPI report was warmer than expected. Today’s June PPI report was cooler than expected. Yesterday, we argued that while Trump’s tariffs may not be boosting inflation, they may have halted its fall to the Fed’s 2.0%

Today’s CPI report for June suggests that consumer price inflation is no longer declining toward the Fed’s 2.0% target. Instead, it might continue to hover around 3.0% for a while as it has recently (chart). Trump’s tariffs may be

The US stock market held up very well today in the face of Trump’s escalation of his trade war with the world over the weekend. Maybe that’s because he threatened that his latest tariff salvo won’t be fired until

This will be a jampacked week for economic indicators and big banks’ Q2 earnings reports. We are relatively optimistic about the latter, which should be bullish for the stock market. The inflation news may show some signs of tariff-related

The economy won’t let us down. Despite numerous crises, real GDP has remained recession-resistant since the Covid lockdown during the first half of 2020. That’s almost six recession-free years notwithstanding the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the tightening

At the end of last year, the words “uncertain” and “uncertainty” appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year’s meetings. The June

Nothing happened today in the financial markets. The prices of stocks, bonds, the dollar, and oil all were relatively flat. On the other hand, there was more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT). But the markets watched it all with as much interest as

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America’s trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called “Annihilation Days” in the stock and bond markets

There’s not much on this week’s economic calendar. The only big event was supposed to occur on Wednesday, July 9. That would have been 90 days after President Donald Trump postponed his April 2 reciprocal tariffs on America’s trading

The fireworks started early in the stock market last week. On Thursday, the day before Independence Day, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose to new record highs (chart). In addition, their 50-day moving averages rose above their

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday’s report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31,

There is method to President Donald Trump’s madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump’s tariffs. June’s CPI inflation rate is tracking around

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high on Friday, slightly exceeding its previous peak on February 19 by 0.5%. The bull market that started on October 12, 2022 is alive and well following the 18.9% correction from February 19

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don’t expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by

Since the start of the current bull market during October 2022, we recommended overweighting the S&P 500 Information Technology sector and have been especially positive on the S&P 500 Semiconductor industry. We stuck with that recommendation during the correction

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today

This morning, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with Qatar reporting

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday’s White House address, if Iran doesn’t

On Saturday night, the US attacked Iran’s three nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump announced this in a social media post at 7:50 p.m. EST. In a short speech at 10:00 p.m., he said that