QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15–19

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the

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MARKET CALL: The Oracle Of Austin

Last Wednesday, Larry Ellison, the executive chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, saw his net worth jump by $101 billion—the biggest one-day increase ever recorded on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—to $382 billion. That happened after the company announced

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25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Following yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI and today’s as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenters to that decision among voting members. Following today’s jump in

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Lots Of News

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn’t move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August’s PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let’s review all

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Earnings-Led Meltup?

We typically speak of stock market meltups as desirable for a limited time only, as they’re typically followed directly by meltdowns. On second thought: A stock market meltup might be alright after all. A meltdown needn’t follow it if it

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MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from “Apocalypse Now” featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation’s second-largest city.

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 8–12

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025.

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US Labor Market Is In Balance

August’s employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month’s payrolls rose by just 22,000. June’s number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July’s number was revised up by 6,000

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Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow’s employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC’s majority will turn dovish and will

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 2–5

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday’s pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July’s surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether

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Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That’s the highest since the end of 2008. We

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Update: Stay Home Versus Go Global

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue after the stock market closed today. Revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters. Nvidia is one of several mega-cap technology stocks that have fueled the bull market in the US, causing it

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Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August’s survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25–29

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn’t a done deal, no matter what Powell

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MARKET CALL: Stocks Discounting Fed Put

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC’s

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Waiting For The Chair To Speak

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today’s batch of economic indicators supports our

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Gold & Other Commodities

On balance, there aren’t a lot of inflationary pressures in the commodity markets. Precious metals are on top of the leaderboard so far this year among the major commodity price gains (chart). Platinum, gold, and silver are ranked #1,

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Dueling Fed Mandates

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn’t always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of

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ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 18–22

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson

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Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claim

We’ve acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July’s cold employment report and July’s lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we’ve also noted that more economic indicators will be

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In Defense Of The US Dollar

Like the late comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the dollar has been getting “no respect” recently. A few officials of the Trump administration want to see a weaker dollar. America’s adversaries would like to replace it as a key currency. Doomsayers

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What’s In Style?

Are SMidCaps coming back into fashion? They had a good day today. They outperformed the LargeCaps. The S&P 500 LargeCaps was up 0.3%, while the S&P 400 MidCaps and the S&P 600 SmallCaps rose 1.6% and 2.0% (chart). The

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