Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow’s employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC’s majority will turn dovish and will

The S&P 500 rose today despite a batch of weak economic indicators over the past two days. Investors perceive that bad news is good news if it increases the chances of a Fed rate cut on September 17. Indeed,

We turned bullish on gold last year when the spot price of the shiny metal decisively rose above $2,000 per ounce (chart). We attributed this new bull market in gold to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday’s pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July’s surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That’s the highest since the end of 2008. We

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue after the stock market closed today. Revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters. Nvidia is one of several mega-cap technology stocks that have fueled the bull market in the US, causing it

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August’s survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is

The Magnificent-7 stocks have been leading the charge of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. They are all in the Nasdaq 100, which is up 117.9% so far since the start of the bull market,

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn’t a done deal, no matter what Powell

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC’s

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today’s batch of economic indicators supports our

On balance, there aren’t a lot of inflationary pressures in the commodity markets. Precious metals are on top of the leaderboard so far this year among the major commodity price gains (chart). Platinum, gold, and silver are ranked #1,

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn’t always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of

By most accounts, almost everyone is bearish on the dollar. Nearly everyone is selling dollars to buy euros and gold, according to this widely held view. Global investors are rebalancing their equity portfolios out of US stocks into European

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It’s an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming,

We’ve acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July’s cold employment report and July’s lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we’ve also noted that more economic indicators will be

Like the late comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the dollar has been getting “no respect” recently. A few officials of the Trump administration want to see a weaker dollar. America’s adversaries would like to replace it as a key currency. Doomsayers

Are SMidCaps coming back into fashion? They had a good day today. They outperformed the LargeCaps. The S&P 500 LargeCaps was up 0.3%, while the S&P 400 MidCaps and the S&P 600 SmallCaps rose 1.6% and 2.0% (chart). The

The Trump administration is becoming increasingly concerned that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., might soon rule that President Donald Trump lacks the legal authority to impose tariffs as he has been doing.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped to new record highs following the release of July’s CPI report today. The headline inflation rate held steady at 2.7%, while the core rate warmed a bit to 3.1%. Stock investors concluded that

This is a week loaded with economic data releases that have the potential to shed light on the health of the US economy and change minds at the Federal Reserve—none more so, perhaps, than inflation. While the CPI and PPI are

The S&P 500 nearly matched its July 28 record high on Friday. The Nasdaq did rise to a record high. Once again, the Magnificent-7 stocks collectively are leading the pack. That’s because these remarkable companies continue to deliver magnificent earnings, which are increasingly

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a

It’s a light day for economic news. Stock prices are drifting higher today because the Q2 earnings reporting season is going well, with very few exceptions. Notwithstanding the weakness of the latest employment report and the two surveys of

The stock and bond markets didn’t respond much to the national survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers this morning, even though it was on the weak side (chart). The overall NM-PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles, edged

In our April 7 Morning Briefing, we anticipated the bottom in this year’s S&P 500 correction and a V-shaped rebound. The bottom occurred the very next day. The V-shaped recovery started the following day on April 9, when President Donald

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America’s trading partners. Friday’s employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she “RIGGED” the data.