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Executive Summary: Jackie has been mining information from earnings conference calls for insights into industry and economic trends. For example, air freight demand is unexpectedly strong as a result of shippers’ Red Sea travails; that and the end of
Executive Summary: The European Union is trying to rein in bloc nations’ budgets just as protectionist parties swell in European elections. Rising fiscal and political risks are weighing on European asset prices. We expect those headwinds to be tailwinds
Executive Summary: The federal budget deficit is far higher than typical during economic expansions—and current estimates are likely too low. The deficit is unlikely to shrink anytime soon absent a debt crisis, and it’s increasing the supply of US
The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.
Short-form takes on current market events.
The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022. It has experienced a few rolling recessions in industries like housing and retailing, which spurred soft patches
We still expect that the Fed’s preferred core PCED inflation measure will fall to the Fed’s 2.0% target by the end of this year (chart). It was already down to 2.8% y/y in April. May’s number will be released
The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the “jobs plentiful” series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey. Today, June’s reading showed that 38.1% of respondents said so (chart). That’s a relatively high reading and a slight
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