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Executive Summary: How is the US consumer doing? Jackie examines the evidence. Trump tariff turmoil likely distorted the clues in March retail sales, and Tesla and Amazon weighed on the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index. We take a look at
Executive Summary: Today, we evaluate whether China or the US has more leverage in the trade war. China has a good hand but depends heavily on the US consumer to absorb its production. Whichever side “wins,” the victory will come
Executive Summary: Tariffs are stagflationary, but consensus expectations may be overestimating the inflationary impact and underestimating the downside risks to growth. We evaluate the disinflationary forces that may counterbalance tariff-included price increases. … Also: The bond market’s recent volatility may
The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.
Short-form takes on current market events.
The S&P 500 is down sharply this afternoon. Losses started in the morning due to more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) news. Nvidia’s disclosure that the US government’s new controls on its semiconductor exports to China would result in a
Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying
Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to “help some of the car companies” with his 25% auto tariff (chart).
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