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A daily deep dive into the market news, movement, and indicators.
Executive Summary: What can investors expect from Trump’s opinionated nominees to head up the departments of Health and Human Services and Energy? Health care investors haven’t been waiting around to find out what Robert Kennedy, Jr. will do to “make
Executive Summary: In our framework of three possible scenarios, Ed and Eric assign the lowest subjective odds, 20%, to a catchall bucket of crises that could seriously derail financial markets. They include a 1970s-style geopolitical crisis, a US debt crisis,
Executive Summary: What if the Fed continues to cut the federal funds rate despite the strength of the economy? What’s that going to do to inflation? Today, Eric explains that a second wave of high inflation isn’t likely given expectations
The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.
Short-form takes on current market events.
We are often asked whether the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That’s a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are
The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps
The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates.
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