Executive Summary: How is the US consumer doing? Jackie examines the evidence. Trump tariff turmoil likely distorted the clues in March retail sales, and Tesla and Amazon weighed on the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index. We take a look at

Executive Summary: Today, we evaluate whether China or the US has more leverage in the trade war. China has a good hand but depends heavily on the US consumer to absorb its production. Whichever side “wins,” the victory will come

Executive Summary: Tariffs are stagflationary, but consensus expectations may be overestimating the inflationary impact and underestimating the downside risks to growth. We evaluate the disinflationary forces that may counterbalance tariff-included price increases. … Also: The bond market’s recent volatility may

Executive Summary: Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term

Executive Summary: The best laid plans of many a CEO have been blown asunder by Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. Jackie reports on what corporate leaders are saying about the tariffs’ potential impacts and the strategies they’re considering to keep earnings aloft—and

Executive Summary: Global trade is being reordered, and the new US trade policies are likely to slow global economic growth over the near term. But for various reasons, we think the US stock market will outperform its foreign counterparts, especially

Executive Summary: Amid the recession fears heightened by Trump’s Tariff Turmoil, we take a look at what usually causes recessions. Our Credit Crisis Cycle (CCC) theory posits that financial system crises, unmitigated by intervention, lead to credit crunches. No such

Executive Summary: Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday, with the Stock Market Vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s Reign of Tariffs. Trump officials say they aim to make Main Street wealthy again even

Executive Summary: The onshoring trend that began under Trump 1.0 and was spurred on by Biden legislation is bound to accelerate with Trump 2.0’s tariffs. Several big corporations have announced new US factories in the blueprint stage already. … Also:

Executive Summary: With so much focus in the media on how the Trump tariffs can be expected to affect the US economy, Melissa today discusses how they’ll likely affect other countries. Surprisingly, China may be less vulnerable than initially assumed,

Executive Summary: Yesterday, we changed our stock market and economic projections owing to Trump’s “Reign of Tariffs”; today, we explain our thinking about the higher inflation we now expect. People’s expectations about future inflation are critical to how high inflation

Executive Summary: The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of

Executive Summary: Utilities long have had notoriously tepid demand, but that may change over the coming decade as more and more planned data centers plug into the grid. Jackie counters the argument that a bubble is brewing in data centers

Executive Summary: Fed officials presume that Trump 2.0’s tariffs will lead to one-time price increases. But should the Fed look through “transitory” inflation effects, or are they underweighting the risks of sustained inflationary pressure? … Melissa reports that Trump 2.0’s

Executive Summary: The actions of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be key to how the financial markets react to Trump 2.0’s economic agenda. Today, Eric shares insights into Bessent’s beliefs and proposals, which may have overly concerned investors recently. Bessent

Executive Summary: Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a

Executive Summary: The Chinese government has unveiled a wide-ranging plan to lift its economic growth, this time by propping up consumption instead of trade. Jackie summarizes the many diverse initiatives to put more power in the pockets of Chinese consumers.

Executive Summary: With the US stock market underperforming many international equities markets, we’ve been warming to a “Go Global” stance—though we don’t advise a major shift given the possibility of a punishing global trade war. Today, Eric assesses the stock

Executive Summary: Foreign investors held 37% of US equities last quarter. They’ve clearly sold some of that in the wake of the Trump 2.0 uncertainties. But might the US’s perceived beggar-thy-neighbor policies actually reverse the tide of inflows into US

Executive Summary: Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says.

Executive Summary: It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the US lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade. They’re trade barriers, triggering other countries to respond in kind, and

Executive Summary: Yes, there’s been upward pressure on Japanese interest rates and the yen at a time of downward pressure on US rates and the dollar. But no, Eric explains, we’re not worried about a repeat of last year’s carry-trade

Executive Summary: While we’ve long favored US stocks over global ones, recent developments in Germany and China have made us more sanguine on investing in economies abroad. We’re maintaining our “Stay Home” investment approach but lightening up on the degree

Executive Summary: It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather

Executive Summary: China’s response to the US’s tariffs on Chinese imports was muted, Jackie reports, involving limited new restrictions and tariffs on certain US goods. China has too weak an economy to risk a bolder retaliation. But the country did

Executive Summary: Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs have rattled investors, shaken confidence in the economy, and inflamed inflation fears. The pain of these decisive actions is being felt now, while the benefits of his other

Executive Summary: Bitcoin’s value surged when Trump posted his support of a federal “strategic crypto reserve.” If Uncle Sam were to invest in cryptocurrencies, bitcoin would no longer be independent of government influence—and neither would the financial markets broadly. Today,

Executive Summary: We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead

Executive Summary: Are homes looking sweet again? Home Depot and Lowe’s Q4 results beat analysts’ expectations and could continue to improve if consumers tap their home equity, Jackie reports. While that bodes well for the S&P 500 Home Improvement

Executive Summary: Today, Eric examines MSTR’s strategy of levering up to buy bitcoin via equity and debt issuance. It’s worked great until recently; but if the value of bitcoin were to continue to plummet, MSTR could be in trouble. We