Executive Summary: The dark side of artificial intelligence was on full display in the stock market this week as various disconcerting news items stoked investor anxieties about semiconductor stocks and as fears triggered by a new AI-enabled tool to automate

Executive Summary: The US and India have cut a trade deal that looks like a win-win for both sides and a win as well for the global economy. William shares the details and potential derailers. While caveats abound, the deal

Executive Summary: With global trade alliances shifting as a result of Trump’s tariffs and impulsivity, more and more nations are rekindling ties with China. The geopolitical angle, says William, may be not “Sell America” but “Pivot to China.” China offers

Executive Summary: Today, Dr Ed examines the world according to Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair. Warsh believes that the US is undergoing a productivity-led growth boom, as our Roaring 2020s thesis maintains, which should be

Executive Summary: Small- and mid-capitalization stocks have been outperforming large caps since mid-November, and how! The S&P SmallCap 600 and MidCap 400 indexes are up in the double digits since then, dwarfing the S&P 500’s 4.6% rise. Does the rally

Executive Summary: The benefits of a strong economy aren’t always felt by the majority of the people. Today, Melissa discusses why many American families can’t make ends meet despite the US economy’s rapid growth and explains how the affordability crisis

Executive Summary: Ostensibly, Japan’s government bond market appears bound for a collapse. Debt is an astonishingly high percentage of GDP, which is flat-lining, and the new Prime Minister wants to implement unfunded tax cuts. But the Bond Vigilantes might not

Executive Summary: A curiosity of the current US economy is its remarkable strength despite an affordability crisis. Average real consumption per household and real hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers are at record highs, but plenty of people fall

Executive Summary: Today, Jackie examines why investors have hopped onto transportation stocks this year—sending them racing to record highs after four years of idling—as well as how Trump administration policies affect automakers. After the elimination of tax credits for EV

Executive Summary: The Bank of Japan is in a no-win situation as Friday’s monetary decision looms, damned if it raises rates and damned if it doesn’t. William explains the high stakes—political, economic, and bond market related—of its coming decision. …

Executive Summary: The EU finally inked a long-sought trade deal with a bloc of South American countries the very day that Trump slapped additional tariffs on EU countries opposing the US’s purchase of Greenland. William explains why the South American

Executive Summary: The defensive S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector has outperformed the broader market so far in this young year, and Jackie finds several reasons it has returned to investor favor. … Also, the S&P 500 Diversified Banks sector appears

Executive Summary: The FOMC’s annual rotation of voting members will be anything but a routine shuffling of seats this year, Melissa writes. Political pressure from the Oval Office to lower interest rates and the likelihood of a compliant new Fed

Executive Summary: Japan’s new prime minister is on the hook to pull the economy out of its stagflationary slump. That will be tough, William writes, especially now that China has slapped Japan with punishing trade and tourism bans. Whether Trump

Executive Summary: Last year was a picture-perfect rendering of our Roaring 2020s scenario in action. Economic growth soared on the shoulders of a productivity boom. Dr Ed expects more of the same through the decade’s end and possibly beyond. That

Executive Summary: Nvidia no longer seems as competitively invincible as it once did. Jackie surveys the increasingly crowded AI chip playing field that could act like gravity to Nvidia’s earnings growth. … Also: When a stock market goes a year

Executive Summary: President Trump’s Venezuelan gambit may give China cover to tighten the noose around Taiwan. That could slam global markets and supply chains, William writes, as well as unnerve global AI investors envisioning Taiwan Semiconductor winding up in China’s

Executive Summary: The bark of President Trump’s harsh tariff policy has been worse than its bite. While many of the rates are punishingly high, Trump’s tariffs have not hobbled the global economy or saddled the domestic economy with runaway inflation.

Executive Summary: It’s an economic curiosity of our times: The US economy is undeniably strong, in fact remarkably resilient in the face of recent headwinds. Yet it’s in the midst of an affordability crisis that has hit Gen Zers and

Executive Summary: Among the improbable accomplishments of artificial intelligence, it has turned sleepy Utilities stocks into hot commodities. Demand for electricity to power AI data centers is expected to soar. Jackie examines forecasts for electricity generation and what’s fueling them.

Executive Summary: As Brazil’s economy falters, its central bank has not eased, more determined to tame inflation than spur economic growth. Such Volcker-esque monetary policy has put bank chief Gabriel Galipolo in the hotseat, William reports, and at odds with

Executive Summary: It’s not China’s feared “Lehman moment.” But the psychological impact of Chinese property developer Vanke’s inability to pay its debt on time can’t be overstated, writes William. The situation is rattling investors who recall the 2021 default of

Executive Summary: It has all the drama of “Game of Thrones”: The Magnificent-7 kingdoms, each surrounded by moats, rarely had threatened each other’s monopolies in the past. Now, with the advent of AI, they have been encroaching on each other’s

Executive Summary: Various Trump administration initiatives have showered love on certain industries in the S&P 500 Financials sector, helping to lift its ytd performance to fourth among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors. Jackie counts the ways they’ve benefited. … Also:

Executive Summary: Oil appears to be stuck in the mud. Melissa analyzes the bullish and the bearish forces keeping the price of Brent crude futures mired below the mid-$60s per barrel. We expect to see more of the same in

Executive Summary: High drama surrounds the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision next week, William reports. BOJ Governor Ueda is determined to end the many years of extreme monetary ease that have squelched Japan’s animal spirits. Prime Minister Takaichi is

Executive Summary: The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions

Executive Summary: The holiday selling season is off to a merry start for retailers. By most accounts, consumers gobbled up the post-Thanksgiving sales last weekend with more gusto than last year. … Also: Does the recent downdraft in the price

Executive Summary: Investor concerns that AI may be costing more than it’s worth should be put into perspective, Melissa says. It is costing a fortune to build out AI infrastructure, and investors aren’t wrong to worry that OpenAI won’t make

Executive Summary: China has a shot at overshooting the government’s 5% GDP growth target in coming years, William reports, if it keeps its exports flowing, as they have been, to developed nations other than the US. But this would risk