Executive Summary: It’s evident how much policy uncertainty is baked into the dollar’s value from its whipsawing during the first two days of Trump 2.0 in reaction to changed expectations regarding the timing of the new tariffs. Despite concerns of

Executive Summary: Expectations for more rate cuts this year than previously expected buoyed both bond and stock markets last week. The prior week was bad for both markets as rate-cut expectations diminished. But last Thursday’s comments by Fed Governor Waller

Executive Summary: Southern California’s devastating wildfires couldn’t have hit at a worse time. The regional insurance market has been in a dysfunctional state of flux, as some insurers have fled the risky market, others have hiked premiums to account for

Executive Summary: China gargantuan trade surplus won’t shrink until policymakers stimulate domestic demand. Yuan depreciation now risks capital flight. … In the UK, gilt yields have reached multi-year highs, raising the government’s borrowing costs to levels that might jeopardize its

Executive Summary: Is this year’s rotation of voting members on the FOMC likely to shift the monetary policy needle? Which way? Today, Eric identifies the new hawks and doves and speculates about how they might vote at January’s meeting. …

Executive Summary: The financial markets have been recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy since the FOMC’s December meeting and their expectations for economic changes under the incoming Trump 2.0 administration since Election Day. In this context, Friday’s strong employment report

Executive Summary: Today, Jackie recaps takeaways from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show—including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s insights about the future of artificial intelligence and the most notable of the many AI-enhanced high-tech gadgets unveiled at the convention. … Also: Industrial

Executive Summary: Today, Melissa takes us on a world tour, reviewing the takeaways from the latest economic releases of major economies. Those in Europe are a mixed bag, with the tourist economies of Spain and Italy looking good as Germany

Executive Summary: Our conviction in the labor market’s continued health wasn’t shaken by the increase in unemployment that triggered the Sahm Rule a few months ago. Today, Eric explains why we dismissed this signal and why we expect revised BLS

Executive Summary: The January Barometer and January Effect have been interesting statistical regularities that may not have much investment usefulness. It’s better to stay in the stock market whatever the month brings than to try and execute exits and entrances

Executive Summary: Twenty-twenty-four no doubt will be remembered by equities investors as the year that everything AI-related trounced everything not. Jackie has the striking performance data to prove it. … Also: For some of the fastest-growing S&P 500 sectors this

Executive Summary: Europe, Japan, and China all face economic challenges that monetary policy could help address, but none of their central banks seems ready to deploy the monetary firepower at their disposal, Melissa and Eric report. In Europe, the ECB’s

Executive Summary: We’re no longer the most bullish strategists on the block. We project a 15% advance in the S&P 500 next year, whereas others see reason to expect 20%. With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we

Executive Summary: Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying

Executive Summary: China has been getting back at the US for imposing sanctions by targeting easy marks: US companies that do business there. Jackie discusses the tit-for-tat cold war that’s not likely to end soon and the companies, like Nvidia

Executive Summary: Will the new tariffs expected under Trump 2.0 be inflationary, driving up US producers’ input costs and the prices US consumers pay? We’re not worried for several reasons that Eric explains, including the offsetting effects of the strong

Executive Summary: The Fed has cut the federal funds rate more than enough. Further cutting in December, which the financial markets expect, could send one side of the Fed’s dual mandate in the wrong direction, since inflation remains sticky, while

Executive Summary: As Taylor Swift ends her Eras tour, Dr Ed starts his Roaring 2020s Tour to meet with our accounts. Last week in Texas, they shared their concerns about the “known unknowns,” as the new administration represents a significant

Executive Summary: Oil and gas industry execs have a wish list for the Trump administration’s energy policy. With one of their own—Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright—likely to reign over the Department of Energy, their wishes may be more than pipe

Executive Summary: French assets have been sending distress signals for months, and now unstable political dynamics and overly expansionary fiscal policy are coming to a head. … Also: Melissa reviews the Fed’s latest Financial Stability Report, giving YRI’s take on the

Executive Summary: A key driver of P/E expansion is investors’ perception of how far off the next earnings-crippling recession is. As recent recession fears have dissipated, stock market valuations have risen impressively. Ed walks us through the fluctuations in the

Executive Summary: Today, Dr. Ed examines Baby Boomer economics. The Boomers are sitting on sizable nest eggs that continue to expand along with home prices and stock prices. They are starting to spend more of their net worth as they

Executive Summary: The bond market reacted favorably to Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, suggesting receding concern about the federal budget deficit—as he has a plan to get the deficit under control. That should appease the Bond Vigilantes. We

Executive Summary: With economic growth robust and the stock market at a record high, we’re living the Roaring 2020s now. The economy’s resilience has been remarkable considering the headwinds it has faced. While the outlook under Trump 2.0 involves lots

Executive Summary: What can investors expect from Trump’s opinionated nominees to head up the departments of Health and Human Services and Energy? Health care investors haven’t been waiting around to find out what Robert Kennedy, Jr. will do to “make

Executive Summary: In our framework of three possible scenarios, Ed and Eric assign the lowest subjective odds, 20%, to a catchall bucket of crises that could seriously derail financial markets. They include a 1970s-style geopolitical crisis, a US debt crisis,

Executive Summary: What if the Fed continues to cut the federal funds rate despite the strength of the economy? What’s that going to do to inflation? Today, Eric explains that a second wave of high inflation isn’t likely given expectations

Executive Summary: The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends

Executive Summary: Consumers look ready to deck the halls with abandon this holiday season, Jackie reports. Their incomes are up, gas prices are down, and Home Depot says consumers are spending freely when they can do so without using credit.

Executive Summary: The new tariffs likely under Trump 2.0 could be means to great ends for the US by increasing the US’s trade negotiating leverage—or they could backfire and cause a trade war that curtails global economic growth, which is