Executive Summary: The polices of both US presidential contenders would widen an already wide fiscal budget deficit, especially in a sweep scenario, where the party that controls the White House controls the two houses of Congress as well. A

Executive Summary: The stock market doesn’t seem to mind today’s “SNAFU” state of affairs, but the bond market has legitimate concerns about a federal debt crisis. We do, too, and are incorporating that prospect into our three-scenario odds. We

Executive Summary: Survey-based economic data seem to have become less reliable in recent years, yet some prognosticators build their economic narratives around these soft data that often conflict with the relevant hard data. Today, Eric examines the reliability of

Executive Summary: Goldman Sachs’ bold projection that the next 10 years may be a “lost decade” for stocks, with mere 3% annual returns, is unlikely in the extreme, says Dr Ed. It seems to rest on the assumption that

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 Industrials sector has performed well this year to date, even though it’s been dragged down by the Aerospace & Defense industry, home to the deeply underperforming Boeing. Today, Jackie takes a look at what Boeing

Executive Summary: We continue to recommend a Stay Home versus Go Global stock market strategy. While US stocks tend to command higher valuation multiples, that’s for good reason. Using forward profit margin and revenues-per-share data from MSCI indexes around

Executive Summary: Chinese stocks surged in response to the government’s stimulus plan in September. The government has done little to please investors since. China would be better off stimulating consumer spending via “helicopter money,” Eric explains, rather than trying

Executive Summary: The Fed’s monetary decisions are only as good as the data they’re dependent on. But economic data can be misleading for several reasons. What looks recessionary may simply be a temporary anomaly that gets revised away or

Executive Summary: The US economy is doing well. So why do surveys suggest that consumers and small businesses are depressed about their financial situations? Among consumers, inflation remains a sore point, Dr. Ed explains. Falling y/y inflation rates are

Executive Summary: China’s stock market has lost 8% over the past week. Investors appear to have lost faith that the government’s stimulus will be the answer to that economy’s problems. Eric explains the dubious prospects of trying to stimulate

Executive Summary:  By cutting interest rates despite strong economic growth, the Fed now risks overstimulating demand and reviving inflation. Services and wage inflation remain sticky, raising the risk that headline inflation gets stuck above 2.0%. … The bond market

Executive Summary: As the bull market turns two, Dr. Ed fondly recollects the performance of the young raging bull. At times, the bull charged and at times stomped its hooves on the ground in reaction to the monetary policy, earnings

Executive Summary: Manufacturing sectors have been contracting in many countries of the world, although not in the US or Vietnam. Today, Melissa examines the troubling trends behind the downturns, globally and for specific countries. Notably, China remains the world’s

Executive Summary: The Fed’s now ended tightening didn’t quite get inflation down to its mandated 2.0% target; but by easing now, the Fed presumes it will get there. It’s too early for victory laps, believe Ed and Eric. By

Executive Summary: Hard-landers who thought a recession was taking root in the labor market were mistaken, Eric explains. He and Ed interpreted the recent rise in unemployment as signifying a normalizing labor market—not one that was weakening in an

Executive Summary:  It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, often a credit crisis during periods of Fed tightening that escalates into a credit crunch and a recession. The latest tightening has ended, and that didn’t happen. Now

Executive Summary: If war erupts in the Middle East, the higher oil prices that OPEC+ has been unable to achieve will be realized. Jackie examines the market dynamics that have kept oil prices down as well as the EIA’s

Executive Summary: The recent upward revisions to GDP and GDI are significant, suggesting an economy that’s even stronger than many suspected. Eric explains how the various elements interconnect, with stronger GDP than first reported meaning greater output, which means

Executive Summary: If AI proves to be as transformative as many expect, its adoption has barely gotten off the ground. As AI proliferates—accelerating the productivity growth that’s central to our Roaring 2020s scenario—will it mean mass layoffs? Eric examines

Executive Summary: The permabears have fueled much negativity about the outlooks for the US economy and stock market. Their analyses often don’t hold up to scrutiny. Today, Dr Ed puts the prospects of a recession and a bear market

Executive Summary: The interest-rate-sensitive S&P 500 Homebuilding industry index counterintuitively sank after the Fed launched its new easing cycle; the stocks had already rallied in anticipation of the move. Jackie examines whether the correction was warranted. The industry’s forward revenues

Executive Summary: Our Roaring 2020s scenario for the economy is our base case, to which we assign a 50% probability. Its linchpin: robust productivity growth and the bevy of benefits it brings to corporate America and the economy at

Executive Summary: The FOMC’s 50 bps rate cut last week stimulates an economy that doesn’t need much, if any, extra help, in our opinion. Eric takes a look at the labor market and long-term inflation expectations to describe why

Executive Summary: The Fed is starting a new easing cycle to avoid a recession that we don’t see coming, based on concern about labor market deterioration that we don’t see occurring. Today, Dr. Ed compares and contrasts the world

Executive Summary: With China’s economy moribund, particularly the consumer sector, Chinese manufacturers are flooding global markets with their inexpensive wares. Besides exporting goods, they’re essentially exporting deflation. Foreign governments aren’t pleased. Jackie reports on this state of affairs and what

Executive Summary: August’s rise in retail sales surprised many a hard-lander. We weren’t surprised given our strong outlook for consumer spending, based on the growing labor market and rising real wages. Consumer credit doesn’t threaten a balance sheet recession,

Executive Summary: The Fed is set to ease monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate this week, but it will still be tightening policy by shrinking its balance sheet. However, as Eric explains, quantitative tightening hasn’t been very

Executive Summary: It’s a foregone conclusion that the Federal Open Market Committee will be launching a new monetary easing cycle by cutting the federal funds rate when it meets this week. But a weighty decision faces the committee: To

Executive Summary: Rapid earnings growth has sent the S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense industry’s share price index rocketing skyward. But how long can investors look past looming clouds? Jackie examines the industry’s fundamentals and valuation trajectories as well as

Executive Summary: While carry traders likely have more yen-funded positions to unwind, we’re not worried about another bout of extreme market volatility as a result. We don’t see the conditions that sparked the great unwinding exacerbating, Eric explains. The Bank