Executive Summary: The onshoring trend that began under Trump 1.0 and was spurred on by Biden legislation is bound to accelerate with Trump 2.0’s tariffs. Several big corporations have announced new US factories in the blueprint stage already. … Also:

Executive Summary: With so much focus in the media on how the Trump tariffs can be expected to affect the US economy, Melissa today discusses how they’ll likely affect other countries. Surprisingly, China may be less vulnerable than initially assumed,

Executive Summary: Yesterday, we changed our stock market and economic projections owing to Trump’s “Reign of Tariffs”; today, we explain our thinking about the higher inflation we now expect. People’s expectations about future inflation are critical to how high inflation

Executive Summary: The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of

Executive Summary: Utilities long have had notoriously tepid demand, but that may change over the coming decade as more and more planned data centers plug into the grid. Jackie counters the argument that a bubble is brewing in data centers

Executive Summary: Fed officials presume that Trump 2.0’s tariffs will lead to one-time price increases. But should the Fed look through “transitory” inflation effects, or are they underweighting the risks of sustained inflationary pressure? … Melissa reports that Trump 2.0’s

Executive Summary: The actions of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be key to how the financial markets react to Trump 2.0’s economic agenda. Today, Eric shares insights into Bessent’s beliefs and proposals, which may have overly concerned investors recently. Bessent

Executive Summary: Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a

Executive Summary: The Chinese government has unveiled a wide-ranging plan to lift its economic growth, this time by propping up consumption instead of trade. Jackie summarizes the many diverse initiatives to put more power in the pockets of Chinese consumers.

Executive Summary: With the US stock market underperforming many international equities markets, we’ve been warming to a “Go Global” stance—though we don’t advise a major shift given the possibility of a punishing global trade war. Today, Eric assesses the stock

Executive Summary: Foreign investors held 37% of US equities last quarter. They’ve clearly sold some of that in the wake of the Trump 2.0 uncertainties. But might the US’s perceived beggar-thy-neighbor policies actually reverse the tide of inflows into US

Executive Summary: Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says.

Executive Summary: It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the US lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade. They’re trade barriers, triggering other countries to respond in kind, and

Executive Summary: Yes, there’s been upward pressure on Japanese interest rates and the yen at a time of downward pressure on US rates and the dollar. But no, Eric explains, we’re not worried about a repeat of last year’s carry-trade

Executive Summary: While we’ve long favored US stocks over global ones, recent developments in Germany and China have made us more sanguine on investing in economies abroad. We’re maintaining our “Stay Home” investment approach but lightening up on the degree

Executive Summary: It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather

Executive Summary: China’s response to the US’s tariffs on Chinese imports was muted, Jackie reports, involving limited new restrictions and tariffs on certain US goods. China has too weak an economy to risk a bolder retaliation. But the country did

Executive Summary: Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs have rattled investors, shaken confidence in the economy, and inflamed inflation fears. The pain of these decisive actions is being felt now, while the benefits of his other

Executive Summary: Bitcoin’s value surged when Trump posted his support of a federal “strategic crypto reserve.” If Uncle Sam were to invest in cryptocurrencies, bitcoin would no longer be independent of government influence—and neither would the financial markets broadly. Today,

Executive Summary: We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead

Executive Summary: Are homes looking sweet again? Home Depot and Lowe’s Q4 results beat analysts’ expectations and could continue to improve if consumers tap their home equity, Jackie reports. While that bodes well for the S&P 500 Home Improvement

Executive Summary: Today, Eric examines MSTR’s strategy of levering up to buy bitcoin via equity and debt issuance. It’s worked great until recently; but if the value of bitcoin were to continue to plummet, MSTR could be in trouble. We

Executive Summary: Federal spending needs to be cut to pre-pandemic levels relative to GDP, in our opinion, and we’re confident that Trump 2.0 can do so. But DOGE may not be the way that is achieved. The new department’s bold

Executive Summary:  While Ed and Eric have been accentuating the positives in the stock market outlook and also acknowledging the negatives, investors and many commentators seem suddenly to be doing the opposite. Today, Ed outlines both the concerns that dragged

Executive Summary: The Q4 earnings of Occidental Petroleum provides a case study in how an oil producer can grow earnings at a time when global production is outpacing consumption and oil prices are weak. … Also: It’s not just the

Executive Summary: The EU is suffering economically, its growth slowed by internal hurdles that act as unintended tariffs. Melissa examines a grand new plan to reinvigorate economic growth, but YRI is skeptical of its success. Investors in European stock markets,

Executive Summary: The Bond Vigilantes aren’t saddling up just yet, but they’re on high alert, Ed reports. They’re watching to see whether anti-DOGE gunslingers will cripple the new federal department or whether DOGE will root out sufficient government inefficiencies to

Executive Summary: Trump 2.0’s various new tariffs have multiple aims. Regarding China, the administration hopes that the additional 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports from the country will spur the Chinese government to slow the flow of fentanyl into the

Executive Summary: The Fed doesn’t always make the right decisions. But there’s next to no chance that it will mismanage liquidity and overly stress short-term funding markets, Eric explains. The Fed would end its quantitative tightening before that happened. …

Executive Summary: Dr Ed is on the road more often these days visiting YRI accounts around the US and abroad. His “Roaring 2020s Tour” focuses on the resilience of the US economy over recent years and reasons that it should