Executive Summary: The data-dependent Fed is operating as well as possible without the usual economic data releases from government agencies during the shutdown. The shutdown is the latest in a series of unusual challenges Jerome Powell has navigated admirably as

Executive Summary: Consumer spending is being buffeted by countervailing winds—with heady financial market returns potentially lifting spending even as deportations, the government shutdown, and the effects of AI on employment potentially depress it. Jackie examines the recent earnings reports of

Executive Summary: It’s great that Presidents Trump and Xi are coming to the table, but William argues that markets’ jubilance at the prospect of a US-China trade deal may be inflated. Much still could go awry, and tensions between the

Executive Summary: Japanese stocks surged after the election of Sanae Takaichi as prime minister, but investors’ enthusiasm may be premature. Japan’s first female leader is all for continued easy monetary policy, which puts her at odds with the Bank of

Executive Summary: The Fed Put is back. Given the likelihood of two more reductions in the federal funds rate before year-end, we’re reducing the odds of our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario from 55% to 50% and raising the odds

Executive Summary: With wars ongoing, the federal government’s weapons purchases haven’t let up during the government shutdown. Investors have been bidding up the stocks of US defense contractors as a result, and the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry has

Executive Summary: Is AI really the jobs disrupter it’s chalked up to be? Melissa distills the research on how much AI has displaced human work, which industries are most affected, and which worker populations are out of luck. … Also,

Executive Summary: US/China trade-war brinkmanship has reached the brink: China’s President Xi hasn’t budged on the rare-earth-minerals export controls that will severely curtail the world’s ability to produce electronics. Numerous nations think China has gone too far this time, William

Executive Summary: Investors’ panic attack Thursday was another of many short-lived frights that haunt bull runs. Our economic analyses help us spot the difference between panic-generated minor pullbacks and scarier downturns like corrections and bear markets. Corrections tend to occur

Executive Summary: Fed Chair Powell came across as hawkishly dovish in his latest public remarks, observes Melissa. He noted risks to the labor market, the near completion of the Fed’s quantitative tightening, and inflationary pressures that are only temporary—all dovish

Executive Summary: The surging gold price has already exceeded our year-end target of $4,000 per ounce. Risk-off investors may be concluding that gold offers greater protection from geopolitical risks than bitcoin, which is more like a risk-on speculative vehicle and

Executive Summary: The big banks likely earned big bucks during Q3, with several winds at their backs. But their Q4s should be more problematic, Jackie explains. … And: Several big banks were lenders for a used car dealer serving illegal

Executive Summary: The latest US–China aggressions have the financial markets worried about the high stakes of a trade war between the globe’s biggest trading nation and its largest economy. William observes that a disruption to global supply chains would have

Executive Summary: The rapid revenue growth of cloud providers that meet AI data storage needs has enticed lots of players to build new data center capacity. Some, like Amazon and Open AI, are doing so to meet their own AI

Executive Summary: Investors in Japan’s stock and bond markets aren’t likely to welcome the policies of Japan’s probable new prime minister. William explains why. … Also: Political and fiscal crises in France are rocking that nation’s financial markets as investors

Executive Summary: Chinese stocks are rallying on AI exuberance and a leap of faith that governmental reforms will bear fruit, with little fundamental support for their ascent from earnings or economic data. William likens it to a similar runup a

Executive Summary: Sunshine during my tour of the West Coast and in the stock market last week. But everyone’s on the lookout for signs of an AI bubble. Jeff Bezos has a positive take on bubbles that makes sense to

Executive Summary: On the first day of the government shutdown, stock markets stayed calm and carried onward and upward. But modest reactions in the bond and gold markets as well as the dollar were registered. … Also: Canadians feeling slighted

Executive Summary: Japan is at an economically precarious time, William reports. GDP is barely growing, yet the BOJ is bent on monetary tightening. A new prime minister is likely to roll out fiscal stimulus measures, but Japan has the heaviest

Executive Summary: Argentina’s failing economy was buoyed by IMF intervention in April, but since August the floor has fallen out. President Milei’s austerity plan is slamming consumer confidence, and foreign investors are rushing for the exits. Trump’s controversial $20 billion

Executive Summary: Our Roaring 2020s outlook has been on target since the beginning of the decade. Over the past two quarters, GDP growth and consumer spending have been robust, and the recession widely anticipated for three years and as recently

Executive Summary: Nvidia has been seeding its future demand by investing huge sums in companies that will likely grow into big purchasers of Nvidia chips. Will the investments bear the hoped-for fruit? Jackie has the story. … Also: The Genius

Executive Summary: The Congressional Budget Office envisions a late-cycle slowdown of the US economy, with sharply lower labor force growth and budget deficits rising as GDP growth slows. Melissa shares highlights from the CBO’s September forecast and the BLS’s recent

Executive Summary: Two recent shockers have unnerved Japanese investors—the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and the tapering of the BOJ’s stock market supporting ETF purchases. Bond Vigilantes, fearing that Japan’s huge debt will only swell under Ishiba’s successor, have

Executive Summary: The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate last week doesn’t change our S&P 500 price targets or our subjective probabilities of a meltup (25% odds) or correction (20%) by year-end. Today, Dr Ed explores the reactions

Executive Summary: The Fed decided to do yesterday exactly what was expected of it. So its 25-basis-point drop in the federal funds rate barely moved the needle in Wednesday’s trading. But anticipation of the move has helped interest-rate-sensitive stocks outperform

Executive Summary: It may not be as feasible as some think for China’s government to achieve its 5% annual GDP growth goal given formidable headwinds, including slow-moving economic reforms and the impact of US tariffs. William discusses the challenges that

Executive Summary: For many emerging markets around the world, Trump’s tariffs on their exports to the US are stressing economies that already were facing formidable challenges, William reports. The President of Indonesia has been making moves that undermine Bank Indonesia’s

Executive Summary: A recent article by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes aim at the Fed for its use of unconventional monetary tools and its mission creep. Today, Dr Ed addresses the Treasury secretary in an open letter, detailing where they

Executive Summary: It’s nice to buy stocks at relatively low valuations, but only if they aren’t cheap for a reason. European stock markets may be climbing a wall of worry that’s about to get steeper given a weakening economic and