Executive Summary: The Congressional Budget Office envisions a late-cycle slowdown of the US economy, with sharply lower labor force growth and budget deficits rising as GDP growth slows. Melissa shares highlights from the CBO’s September forecast and the BLS’s recent

Executive Summary: Two recent shockers have unnerved Japanese investors—the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and the tapering of the BOJ’s stock market supporting ETF purchases. Bond Vigilantes, fearing that Japan’s huge debt will only swell under Ishiba’s successor, have

Executive Summary: The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate last week doesn’t change our S&P 500 price targets or our subjective probabilities of a meltup (25% odds) or correction (20%) by year-end. Today, Dr Ed explores the reactions

Executive Summary: The Fed decided to do yesterday exactly what was expected of it. So its 25-basis-point drop in the federal funds rate barely moved the needle in Wednesday’s trading. But anticipation of the move has helped interest-rate-sensitive stocks outperform

Executive Summary: It may not be as feasible as some think for China’s government to achieve its 5% annual GDP growth goal given formidable headwinds, including slow-moving economic reforms and the impact of US tariffs. William discusses the challenges that

Executive Summary: For many emerging markets around the world, Trump’s tariffs on their exports to the US are stressing economies that already were facing formidable challenges, William reports. The President of Indonesia has been making moves that undermine Bank Indonesia’s

Executive Summary: A recent article by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes aim at the Fed for its use of unconventional monetary tools and its mission creep. Today, Dr Ed addresses the Treasury secretary in an open letter, detailing where they

Executive Summary: It’s nice to buy stocks at relatively low valuations, but only if they aren’t cheap for a reason. European stock markets may be climbing a wall of worry that’s about to get steeper given a weakening economic and

Executive Summary: Global debt markets are in disarray, with Bond Vigilantes driving up yields in various nations—including two that lost their leaders this week, France and Japan. William discusses global investors’ uncertainties regarding both countries as well as how President

Executive Summary: India’s economy is generating some serious steam—GDP is growing at a fast and accelerating clip, industrial production is at a record high, and inflation has dropped below the central bank’s target. But the stats don’t tell the whole

Executive Summary: Our Roaring 2020s economic scenario and expectations for inflation and the labor market suggest that the Fed probably shouldn’t cut interest rates this year, although one cut might be warranted if upcoming inflation reports are more subdued than

Executive Summary: If consumers are as depressed as sinking sentiment surveys suggest, you’d never know it by the stellar July-quarter results that retailers from all walks of the industry have been reporting. Jackie summarizes key points from the earnings reports

Executive Summary: Internal discord among the EU’s member nations portends fragmentation and waning geopolitical influence, reports Melissa. … China’s EV industry, BYD in particular, had been booming until recently. Now it faces formidable headwinds from within the country and without;

Executive Summary: A new wave of sovereign risk is washing over European economies, with the UK and France most vulnerable as they navigate fiscal fragility, political instability, and cratering bond market confidence. Will the UK and France need bailouts from

Executive Summary: Nvidia investors were underwhelmed by yesterday’s impressive earnings report with surging revenue growth; its shares sold off in after-market trading. Jackie looks at what’s been driving the performance of the company and its stock. … Also: AI-related stocks

Executive Summary: The balance of risks in the US labor market is shifting, as Fed Chair Powell discussed at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. Today, Melissa breaks the labor market down into its moving parts, identifying the areas

Executive Summary: The potential for lower US interest rates, a weaker dollar, and Trump Tariff Turmoil have created one big headache for Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. William explores how Japan’s central bank will weigh the need to stimulate

Executive Summary: Fed Chair Powell’s eagerly awaited speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday fanned stock investors’ hope that the FOMC would lower the federal funds rate in September—despite Powell’s hedges and the fact that upcoming data releases

Executive Summary: Retailers’ earnings reports offer a window into recent consumer behavior. Tariff-related uncertainty hasn’t slowed consumer discretionary spending and perhaps has buoyed it, but consumers do seem reluctant to make big purchases requiring financing, Jackie reports. … Also: Small-cap

Executive Summary: China’s stock market has been strong, up 20% since April, as investors appear to be downplaying the potential consequences of the tariff war with the US. But with China’s weak economic underpinnings, we’re not so sure that’s wise.

Executive Summary: To cut or not to cut? Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday may hint at which way he’s leaning. The stakes of the FOMC’s September 16-17 meeting decision could hardly be higher:

Executive Summary: Dr Ed is sticking to his guns: He has contended since early last year that the US economy is too resilient and inflation is not close enough to 2.0% for Fed officials to muck around with easing. The

Executive Summary: Farmers in America’s Heartland are hurting as crop prices are dirt cheap. Supplies are high, and international demand has receded in the wake of Trump’s tariffs. Jackie discusses their situation. … Also: The US/China trade deal waiting to

Executive Summary: President Trump appointed Stephen Miran, a Trump loyalist and chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fulfill the remaining days of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s term. William explores Miran’s historical stances, including his calls for lower interest

Executive Summary: President Trump’s aggressive tariffs on the BRICS nations could backfire. They have breathed new life into the bloc’s ambitions to depend less on US markets and to undercut the US dollar’s significance in global trade. William explores the

Executive Summary: With recent economic releases on the weak side, why have stock investors been taking the bad news in stride and pushing the S&P 500 ever higher? Dr Ed examines this question, offering four possible explanations: Investors expect

Executive Summary: Another day, another tariff target. President Trump’s news Tuesday that new tariffs on imports of semiconductors are coming soon got a muted negative reaction from semiconductor companies’ investors, who on the whole have been tolerant of Trump’s

Executive Summary: The US housing market is haunted by poor affordability, Melissa reports; that’s why sales have been moribund despite supportive household wealth and income statistics. Would-be buyers are spooked by affordability challenges, and would-be sellers are averse to

Executive Summary: Trump’s pivot on India from friend to foe, punctuated by a higher US tariff rate than expected, hit India watchers by surprise. Trump’s dismissal of the country’s importance to the West hurts Prime Minister Modi politically and

Executive Summary: Yes, payroll employment rose less than expected in July, and, yes, revisions pegged it lower than initially thought during May and June. That doesn’t mean demand for labor has slacked off, as the extreme reactions of the