Executive Summary: Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a

Executive Summary: The Chinese government has unveiled a wide-ranging plan to lift its economic growth, this time by propping up consumption instead of trade. Jackie summarizes the many diverse initiatives to put more power in the pockets of Chinese consumers.

Executive Summary: With the US stock market underperforming many international equities markets, we’ve been warming to a “Go Global” stance—though we don’t advise a major shift given the possibility of a punishing global trade war. Today, Eric assesses the stock

Executive Summary: Foreign investors held 37% of US equities last quarter. They’ve clearly sold some of that in the wake of the Trump 2.0 uncertainties. But might the US’s perceived beggar-thy-neighbor policies actually reverse the tide of inflows into US

Executive Summary: Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says.

Executive Summary: It has dawned on Wall Street (and us!) that President Trump’s tariffs aren’t negotiating chips to help the US lower tariffs around the world, promoting free trade. They’re trade barriers, triggering other countries to respond in kind, and

Executive Summary: Yes, there’s been upward pressure on Japanese interest rates and the yen at a time of downward pressure on US rates and the dollar. But no, Eric explains, we’re not worried about a repeat of last year’s carry-trade

Executive Summary: While we’ve long favored US stocks over global ones, recent developments in Germany and China have made us more sanguine on investing in economies abroad. We’re maintaining our “Stay Home” investment approach but lightening up on the degree

Executive Summary: It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather

Executive Summary: China’s response to the US’s tariffs on Chinese imports was muted, Jackie reports, involving limited new restrictions and tariffs on certain US goods. China has too weak an economy to risk a bolder retaliation. But the country did

Executive Summary: Trump 2.0’s head-spinning barrage of executives orders, firings, and tariffs have rattled investors, shaken confidence in the economy, and inflamed inflation fears. The pain of these decisive actions is being felt now, while the benefits of his other

Executive Summary: Bitcoin’s value surged when Trump posted his support of a federal “strategic crypto reserve.” If Uncle Sam were to invest in cryptocurrencies, bitcoin would no longer be independent of government influence—and neither would the financial markets broadly. Today,

Executive Summary: We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead

Executive Summary: Are homes looking sweet again? Home Depot and Lowe’s Q4 results beat analysts’ expectations and could continue to improve if consumers tap their home equity, Jackie reports. While that bodes well for the S&P 500 Home Improvement

Executive Summary: Today, Eric examines MSTR’s strategy of levering up to buy bitcoin via equity and debt issuance. It’s worked great until recently; but if the value of bitcoin were to continue to plummet, MSTR could be in trouble. We

Executive Summary: Federal spending needs to be cut to pre-pandemic levels relative to GDP, in our opinion, and we’re confident that Trump 2.0 can do so. But DOGE may not be the way that is achieved. The new department’s bold

Executive Summary:  While Ed and Eric have been accentuating the positives in the stock market outlook and also acknowledging the negatives, investors and many commentators seem suddenly to be doing the opposite. Today, Ed outlines both the concerns that dragged

Executive Summary: The Q4 earnings of Occidental Petroleum provides a case study in how an oil producer can grow earnings at a time when global production is outpacing consumption and oil prices are weak. … Also: It’s not just the

Executive Summary: The EU is suffering economically, its growth slowed by internal hurdles that act as unintended tariffs. Melissa examines a grand new plan to reinvigorate economic growth, but YRI is skeptical of its success. Investors in European stock markets,

Executive Summary: The Bond Vigilantes aren’t saddling up just yet, but they’re on high alert, Ed reports. They’re watching to see whether anti-DOGE gunslingers will cripple the new federal department or whether DOGE will root out sufficient government inefficiencies to

Executive Summary: Trump 2.0’s various new tariffs have multiple aims. Regarding China, the administration hopes that the additional 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports from the country will spur the Chinese government to slow the flow of fentanyl into the

Executive Summary: The Fed doesn’t always make the right decisions. But there’s next to no chance that it will mismanage liquidity and overly stress short-term funding markets, Eric explains. The Fed would end its quantitative tightening before that happened. …

Executive Summary: Dr Ed is on the road more often these days visiting YRI accounts around the US and abroad. His “Roaring 2020s Tour” focuses on the resilience of the US economy over recent years and reasons that it should

Executive Summary: When others saw labor market weakening last summer, we saw normalization from the settling down of pandemic-period churn. Our labor market outlook remains constructive. The growth of the labor force should continue to slow, but demand for workers

Executive Summary: Nvidia remains king of the AI play, but another AI company has been turning investors’ heads: Palantir. This government supplier has also been saving corporate America much time and money with its AI software solutions. Jackie recaps takeaways

Executive Summary: We continue to recommend overweighting the US stock market in global portfolios. While valuations might be lower in foreign markets, Eric explains, we don’t see enough economic justification to abandon our Stay Home stance for a Go Global

Executive Summary: Trump’s tariffs are about much more than money. They support his agenda to reshape America’s relations with each of the affected nations to the exclusive benefit of the US, Melissa explains. The vision of this consummate dealmaker amounts

Executive Summary: Why is the US economy so strong? Look in the mirror: The consumer is the engine of growth. Yes, technological advancements will continue to buoy GDP, as will Trump 2.0 deregulation and lower taxes. But consumer spending accounts

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 Transportation Composite has been on the move this year, Jackie reports, especially its Airlines and Railroad components. Airline traffic is up to pre-pandemic highs for the big players, and so are their earnings and stock

Executive Summary: Eurozone stock markets have been performing well and sport much lower valuations than the US stock market. But their valuations are lower partly for index composition reasons, Eric explains, and we still have plenty of economic and political