Yes, that has been our advice since mid-August. Our August 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled “Get Ready To Short Bonds?” We wrote: “Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts too soon if in fact August’s economic indicators rebound from

As the S&P 500 continues to rise to new record highs, we are frequently asked how we define a meltup and whether we are already in one. One simple answer is that the S&P 500 is melting up whenever the S&P 500

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the overall economy, manufacturing, and housing. Last week’s jobless claims (Thu) will also be important for gauging how significantly bad weather and worker strikes impacted the labor market. We expect more

Today, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model raised Q3’s real GDP growth rate from 3.2% to 3.4% (saar) following a roaring September retail sales report (chart). Real consumer spending was revised up from 3.3% to 3.6%! Jobless claims fell

The third year of the current bull market in stocks got off to a good start this week. It’s likely that the Q3 earnings reporting season will be better than expected as suggested by the results reported yesterday and

The economic week ahead will likely confirm that consumer spending continues to shine, while manufacturing production remains lackluster. Meanwhile, as earnings season kicks off with the S&P 500 at a record high and valuations relatively stretched, the onus will

The S&P 500’s latest bull market turned two years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those

The monetary policy hawks may be coming home to roost at the Fed’s November 6-7 meeting. September’s CPI was hotter-than-expected, thanks to sticky services inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other doves on the Federal Open Market

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: “We are hard pressed to find what could possibly

Both Blackrock’s Larry Fink and Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio have been notable and vocal China bulls for several years. It seems they’ve both joined our camp in recent days, issuing caution against investing in China, as it supports Russia’s war against Ukraine and

There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there’s

Remember the “higher for longer” mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into “lower and sooner” this summer in response to the economy’s soft patch. After Friday’s strong employment report, the

This week’s inflation indicators should show that it continues to moderate toward the Fed’s 2.0% target. Also, this week’s initial unemployment claims (Thu) will be for the same week that October’s payroll employment report will reflect. That should provide

This morning’s payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren’t surprised. They should bury the looming-recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose

While everyone in our business breathlessly awaits tomorrow’s payroll employment report, the economy passed the brunt of this week’s labor market tests with flying colors. Of course, the labor market is showing signs of easing. But that’s mostly compared