The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

An Earnings-Driven Bull Market

Yesterday, we suggested that the stock market selloff since the July 16 record high in the S&P 500 might not last very long. So we were pleased by today’s broad rally in the S&P 500 (1.1%), the Nasdaq (1.6%), the Russell 2000 (1.7%),

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The Economic Week Ahead:  July 22–26

  The week ahead is jampacked with key economic indicators, including the first read on Q2’s real GDP and June’s PCED inflation rate. We’re expecting robust economic growth and further progress toward the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. The latest

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Panda In A China Shop

China just loaned two young pandas to the San Diego Zoo. In the past, such Panda Diplomacy suggested that relations between the US and China might be improving. It’s hard to come to that conclusion currently since both US

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The Economic Week Ahead:  July 15–19

  The economic week ahead will include updates on industrial production and business sales of goods as well as retail sales. The upshot is likely to be another all-time high for June’s Index of Coincident Indicators (Thu), as confirmed by

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We are raising our year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400. We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade. The stock market seems to be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we

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Banking on Looser Regulation

Bank stocks popped today after Reuters reported that the Fed is considering relaxing a regulation, i.e., the GSIB Surcharge. It requires big banks to hold additional capital due to the systemic risk they pose to the global financial system. Tweaking the

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Giving Credit To The Consumer

The strength of the US consumer has underpinned much of the current bull market in stocks. In recent months, rising real disposable personal income (DPI) has fueled consumer spending even as the excess saving accumulated during the pandemic was

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Market Call: The Bull Market’s Alleged Vulnerabilities

The stock market’s bull run since October 12, 2022 has started to raise some concerns. According to the naysayers, earnings growth expectations are too high because there are mounting signs of an economic slowdown. The breadth of the stock market rally continues to narrow, which may mean that

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The Economic Week Ahead: July 8–12

  Last month, lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings for May, along with rising unemployment claims for June, raised market expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy sooner rather than later. The week ahead will be dominated by

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