We’ve been bullish on the stock market since October 2022. We remain bullish, targeting 7000 on the S&P 500 by the end of next year. That puts us near the head of the pack (chart). Here’s more on earnings

There may soon be fewer jobs for economists in both the US and China. On Monday, December 23, Elon Musk (one of the “DOGE Boys”) tweeted that the “Fed is absurdly overstaffed.” The Fed seems to wear that fact

I. The Light Side In a November 19 post titled “Yardeni And The Long History of Stock Market Prediction Problems,” Lance Roberts, the Chief Investment Strategist for RIA Advisors, wrote that I am a permabull. The slant of his article was

Wednesday was a bad day for stocks after the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which showed two cuts in the federal funds rate in 2025 rather than the four cuts shown in September’s SEP. Friday was

Despite yesterday’s 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR), we’re not raising our subjective odds of a stock-market meltup. While we’re cautious in the short run through January, we’re sticking with our odds of the Roaring 2020s (55%),

Since the December 5 QuickTakes titled “Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls,” we’ve been warning that bullish sentiment is too high and setting the stage for a pullback. In Sunday’s QT titled “Game of Drones,“ we reiterated: “Is it time to panic in the

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today, as widely expected. That takes the target range for the overnight rate down from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.25%-4.50%, a full percentage point lower since the

Consumer spending rose again in November, with real retail sales rising more than 3.0% y/y (chart). Rising real labor and nonlabor incomes, plus a strong wealth effect from record highs in stock and home prices, have boosted spending for

Last Thursday, we wrote, “After today’s PPI, we won’t be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like “Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause Rate Cutting Following Hot Inflation Data.” We were

The main focus of the economic week ahead is the FOMC’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The most likely outcome will be a 25bps cut of the federal funds rate (FFR) to a target range of 4.25%–4.50%. After a full

Look up in the sky. It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s Superman! Nope, it’s lots of drones flying over New Jersey, New York, and Maryland typically between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. They are reportedly the size of

After today’s PPI release, we won’t be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like “Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause Rate Cutting Following Hot Inflation Data.” The current consensus seems to

Today’s CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps next week, and the Fed doesn’t like to surprise market expectations. The Nasdaq front-ran our

The stock market appeared calm ahead of tomorrow’s November CPI report, which is likely to show that supercore inflation (i.e., CPI services less shelter) remains stuck around 4.5% (chart). However, there was plenty of action just below the surface

Chocolate and chips were on today’s stock market menu. Hershey’s stock price soared on a report of another Mondelez takeover attempt. However, the market was weighed down by Nvidia shares, which fell after China opened an investigation over possible