QuickTakes

The most concise analysis of the key variables driving the global economy and financial markets.

Short-form takes on current market events.

Make Manufacturing Great Again!

Markets were abuzz with headlines from Washington today. The S&P 500 opened 1.7% lower on the weekend’s news that President Donald Trump announced that he would slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday. But losses were pared

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ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3–7

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January’s monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on

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MARKET CALL: Beware The Front-Cover Curse & Trump Tariffs 2.0

We are sure that Forbes magazine has had plenty of cover stories about successful entrepreneurs who survived the front-cover curse and remained successful. However, the magazine has also featured a few rising stars who subsequently crashed and burned. The latest Forbes front cover features

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Powell Presses The Pause Button

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged today at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that

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Back On The Happy Trail

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both

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Stocks Stay Afloat In Deep Waters

DeepSeek took a bite out of semiconductor, other tech, as well as nuclear power stocks today. Many of these AI plays dropped by double-digit percentage points, and Nvidia fell 17%. Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering

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ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27–31

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We’re broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate

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MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Hard To Stop

The bond and stock markets were closed today for MLK Day. When they reopen tomorrow, we will all be able to assess their initial reactions to Trump 2.0 following today’s Inauguration ceremony. The major stock market futures indexes were

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ECONOMIC WEEK: January 20–24

The week ahead will be light on economic indicators and heavy on executive orders (EOs). While the markets are closed on Monday for MLK Day, President Donald Trump will be inaugurated into office for his second term. Out of the gate,

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US Economy: Another Mostly Pretty Picture

Today’s batch of December economic indicators in the US has mostly eased any downside concerns about the labor market, consumers, and the economy overall. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model is now showing Q4-2024 real GDP growth of 3.0%

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