Today’s powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that “war is a mere continuation of politics by other means.” He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the “bog of war”). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline

NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran’s power plants

President Donald Trump must believe that the war will be over soon. The White House announced today that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15.  The Iranians responded to Trump’s 15-point peace plan today

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday,

The AI-driven semiconductor rally has been remarkable during the current bull market, which started on October 12, 2022. It received a big boost when ChatGPT was introduced on November 30, 2023. Memory chips have been a major driver of

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing

There’s plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran’s largest gas processing facility. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression “the fog of war” is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had “a break

This week, many of the world’s top central banks have their first crack at responding to skyrocketing oil and gas prices driven by the war in the Middle East.  Along with hearing from the Fed (Wed), we’ll get rate