Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal

While Trump’s tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March’s CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely, and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning. On March 10, when

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to

President Donald Trump and his guests at the Rose Garden today celebrated Liberation Day. Stock investors won’t be celebrating tomorrow based on the plunge in futures prices tied to the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq-100. The Stock Market

Today’s batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on the economy during March. That’s the message from the month’s national ISM manufacturing purchasing managers survey. February’s construction spending report shows that this

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year,

Trump’s Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump). That’s when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America’s

This is a timely reprint of a September 9, 1985 Topical Study by Edward Yardeni titled “The Protectionist Road To Depression.” The original with charts can be found here. It is very relevant to today’s debate over the trade policies of the

President Trump’s Wednesday night announcement of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign motor vehicles caused a selloff in auto stocks today. Components such as engines and transmissions are also impacted, while previously trade-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will be slapped

Two months ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, “All I know is, I’m good for my $80 billion” regarding the $500 billion Stargate AI announcement. His comments followed the emergence of DeepSeek’s

Consumers are feeling okay about the present situation, but they are losing their confidence in the future. The obvious cause of their anxiety is Trump Turmoil 2.0. The Trump administration admits that its trade and DOGE policies might cause some economic pain in the short run but says they

“Helter-skelter” is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of the modus operandi of President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Then again, perhaps there is method to the madness. Perhaps it is

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: “I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there’s flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February’s PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren’t