FOMC Minutes Monitor

The unanimous 12–0 hike to 3.75–4.00% represents a full Committee convergence on the hawkish position that July's three dissenters had staked out. Most participants assessed anothe…

Core PCE held at an estimated 3.4% in August — no progress since June — while total PCE edged up to 3.8% on energy. The staff revised its inflation forecast higher for 2026–2028 an…

Unemployment fell to 4.1% in July and August, 0.3pp below its H2 2025 average, and payroll gains picked up notably in August. A majority of participants assessed the labor market h…

Real GDP growth was solid in H1 2026, roughly matching last year's pace, while real private domestic final purchases picked up notably and grew faster than GDP. The staff revised i…

Consumer spending was solid overall, supported by stock market gains particularly for higher-income households. However, low- and moderate-income households faced increasing strain…

Tariff effects on core goods inflation were assessed as waning, but AI buildout-related price pressures in technology goods were accelerating to fill the gap. Several participants …

Nominal Treasury yields rose ~35bp across the 2- to 10-year curve over the intermeeting period, driven by geopolitical developments, FOMC communications, and AI-related borrowing d…

Participants generally assessed inflation risks as skewed to the upside, with some noting those risks had become more skewed in recent months. Almost all participants assessed that…

The Desk paused reserve management purchases over the intermeeting period, reflecting its assessment that reserves remained within the ample range. The pause is not a policy signal…

The 12–0 unanimous vote is a striking reversal from July's fractured 9–3 hold, but it represents hawkish convergence rather than centrist consensus. The former dissenters — Hammack…