Interactive Tool
FOMC SEP Monitor
Compare Federal Reserve median economic projections and dot plot distributions across FOMC meetings.
Meeting
Decision
Hike 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%
Vote
12-0
Meeting Date
September 16, 2026
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Longer Run | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Chg | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Chg | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Chg | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Chg | Jun 2026 | Sep 2026 | Chg | |
| GDP & Unemployment | |||||||||||||||
Real GDP Q4/Q4 % chg | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | — | — | 2.1 | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Unemployment Rate Q4 avg, % | 4.3 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.1 | — | 4.1 | — | 4.2 | 4.2 | — |
| Inflation | |||||||||||||||
PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 3.6 | 3.7 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | — | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | — | 2.0 | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Core PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 3.3 | 3.4 | +0.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 2.1 | 2.2 | +0.1 | — | 2.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | |||||||||||||||
Fed Funds Rate yr-end midpoint, % | 3.8 | 4.1 | +0.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | +0.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | +0.5 | — | 3.6 | — | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.1 |
Implied moves from 3.875% | Hold | 1 hike | -1 | 1 cut | 1 hike | -2 | 2 cuts | Hold | -2 | — | 1 cut | — | 3 cuts | 3 cuts | — |
Green = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFR / implied cutsSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
Jun 2026 → Sep 2026
Real GDP
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
2.2→2.3+0.1
2027
2.3→2.4+0.1
2028
2.2→2.2—
2029
2.1—
Longer Run
2.0→2.0—
Unemployment Rate
Q4 avg, %
2026
4.3→4.1-0.2
2027
4.3→4.1-0.2
2028
4.2→4.1-0.1
2029
4.1—
Longer Run
4.2→4.2—
PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
3.6→3.7+0.1
2027
2.3→2.3—
2028
2.0→2.1+0.1
2029
2.0—
Longer Run
2.0→2.0—
Core PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
3.3→3.4+0.1
2027
2.5→2.5—
2028
2.1→2.2+0.1
2029
2.0—
Longer Run
——
Fed Funds Rate
yr-end midpoint, %
2026
3.8→4.1+0.3
2027
3.6→4.1+0.5
2028
3.4→3.9+0.5
2029
3.6—
Longer Run
3.1→3.2+0.1
Implied moves from 3.875%
2026
Hold→1 hike
2027
1 cut→1 hike
2028
2 cuts→Hold
2029
1 cut
Longer Run
3 cuts→3 cuts
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
LegendGreen = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFRSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections