Interactive Tool
FOMC SEP Monitor
Compare Federal Reserve median economic projections and dot plot distributions across FOMC meetings.
Meeting
Decision
Hold at 3.50%–3.75%
Vote
12-0
Meeting Date
June 17, 2026
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Longer Run | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Chg | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Chg | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Chg | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Chg | |
| GDP & Unemployment | ||||||||||||
Real GDP Q4/Q4 % chg | 2.4 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | — | 2.1 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Unemployment Rate Q4 avg, % | 4.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | — | 4.2 | 4.2 | — | 4.2 | 4.2 | — |
| Inflation | ||||||||||||
PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 2.7 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Core PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | +0.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | — | — | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | ||||||||||||
Fed Funds Rate yr-end midpoint, % | 3.4 | 3.8 | +0.4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | +0.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | — |
Implied moves from 3.625% | 1 cut | 1 hike | -2 | 2 cuts | Hold | -2 | 2 cuts | 1 cut | -1 | 2 cuts | 2 cuts | — |
Green = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFR / implied cutsSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
Mar 2026 → Jun 2026
Real GDP
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
2.4→2.2-0.2
2027
2.3→2.3—
2028
2.1→2.2+0.1
Longer Run
2.0→2.0—
Unemployment Rate
Q4 avg, %
2026
4.4→4.3-0.1
2027
4.3→4.3—
2028
4.2→4.2—
Longer Run
4.2→4.2—
PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
2.7→3.6+0.9
2027
2.2→2.3+0.1
2028
2.0→2.0—
Longer Run
2.0→2.0—
Core PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2026
2.7→3.3+0.6
2027
2.2→2.5+0.3
2028
2.0→2.1+0.1
Longer Run
——
Fed Funds Rate
yr-end midpoint, %
2026
3.4→3.8+0.4
2027
3.1→3.6+0.5
2028
3.1→3.4+0.3
Longer Run
3.1→3.1—
Implied moves from 3.625%
2026
1 cut→1 hike
2027
2 cuts→Hold
2028
2 cuts→1 cut
Longer Run
2 cuts→2 cuts
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
LegendGreen = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFRSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections