Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Happy Homeland
(1) Bittersweet ending. (2) Tiny taper ahead? (3) Low inflation won’t be a taper-killer if it helps keep yields down. (4) Productivity driving inflation lower and profit margins higher. (5) Hot coincident indicators. (6) Whatever is the matter with Washington may matter less. (7) Happy Eurozone PMIs again, but banks aren’t lending. (8) Abe should be thankful for latest Tankan survey. (9) A warning about profit warnings. (10) Forward earnings at another record high. (11) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Information Technology.
Back Home
(1) “Stay Home” or “Go Global”? (2) "World-wind" tour in London. (3) Upbeat on US, with a few concerns. (4) Obamacare is equivalent to fiscal drag. (5) Housing facing some headwinds. (6) Retail sales rising along with solid earned income gains. (7) Eurozone stock rally yet to be confirmed by fundamentals. (8) Eurozone’s hard data remains soft. (9) More downside for yen and more upside for Nikkei, but Japan’s economic prospects remain challenging. (10) China is looking better than other EMs. (11) Why is the euro so strong? (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retailers.
The Great Moderation II
(1) Two alternative scenarios. (2) Is New Normal the return of the “Great Moderation?” (3) Bernanke’s remarkable speech. (4) Higher P/E for New Normal or Old Normal? (5) Forward P/E slightly exceeds historical average. (6) Other P/Es are in fairly-valued territory too. (7) Tobin’s q ratio is 1.0. (8) Great Recession II? (9) A list of excesses.
Go With the Flow
(1) What’s next after tapering? (2) How about deflation? (3) Bullard wonders why inflation is so low when the Fed has been so easy. (4) Friedman’s theory isn’t passing the latest test. (5) Or is it doing so in Japan? (6) Abenomics boosting profits, but will it trickle down to workers? (7) Fed’s latest Flow of Funds report shows record net issuance of corporate bonds. (8) So easy Fed is also driving share buybacks, boosting earnings per share and stock prices.
A Short Worry List
(1) The other side of the pond. (2) Thinking about the downside in London. (3) Seven trouble spots. (4) Tapering could be troublesome for housing and EMEs. (5) Central bankers fighting deflation, which isn’t all bad. (6) More mischief from Washington? (7) If Obamacare is so depressing, why is confidence rising? (8) Europe’s hard data still looks soft. (9) Is Abenomics losing its mojo? (10) Geopolitical risk is always out there somewhere. (11) Too many underinvested bulls?
Taper-Ready
(1) A good trade. (2) Jobless rate falls to 7% ahead of Fed’s schedule. (3) Whistling a different tune at the Fed. (4) From “shovel-ready” to “taper-ready.” (5) From “Good Rotation” to “Great Rotation.” (6) Record inflows into equity funds. (7) Nothing to fear but nothing to fear. (8) Lots of measures of profits and margins at record highs. (9) YRI Earned Income Proxy at record high. (10) Encouraging developments in the labor market.
Too Many Bulls?
(1) Santa came early this year for stock investors. (2) Can December match October and November? (3) Nothing to fear but tapering because economy is strong? (4) Is yearend rally running into a crowd of too many bulls? (5) Bond market has already discounted tapering. (6) Solid indicators. (7) How do you say $20 oil in Farsi? (8) S&P vs. Thomson Reuters on earnings. (9) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Transportation.
A Tablet on Every Table
(1) Something is different this time. (2) Dow Chemical shedding low-margin businesses. (3) Trauma of 2008 remains traumatic. (4) Improving on the margin. (5) IT leading the margin parade. (6) There’s an app for that, even when dining out. (7) Industries with rising and falling margins. (8) Corrections usually caused by recession fears. (9) No correction if QE tapered due to strong economy. (10) Car sales and construction spending at cyclical highs. (11) Focus on overweight-rated auto-related S&P 500 industries.
Manufacturing Boom?
(1) Amazon vs. UPS. (2) Drone delivery. (3) The New Industrial Revolution. (4) GE fixes an engine problem by changing software code. (5) Global boom in M-PMIs. (6) PMI diffusion indexes showing more strength than actual manufacturing data. (7) Three possible explanations. (8) Regional business surveys also strong on balance. (9) UK, US, and Japan leading the pack with euro zone and EMs trailing. (10) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
Bully!
(1) Are we all wild and crazy bulls now? (2) The bears have left the building. (3) A sell signal for contrarians? (4) P/E-led rally since summer 2011. (5) From depressed to normal valuation. (6) Bubble in angst. (7) More stocks are getting pricey. (8) Does it make sense to compare stock prices to “normalized” earnings? (9) Record high profit margin in Q3. (10) Approaching bubble territory. (11) Fundamentals remain mostly upbeat. (12) “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” (-).
Thanksgiving
(1) Counting our blessings. (2) Thanks to Tom Hanks. (3) Symbology and strategy. (4) From 666 to 1802. (5) Is there any meaning in 777? (6) Since March 2009, forward earnings up 83%, P/E up 45%. (7) Net Earnings Revisions Indexes are mostly negative around the world. (8) NERI dives in France and runs out of mojo in Tokyo. (9) NERI upticks in China and India. (10) Focus on market-weight-rated housing-related stocks.
The Nuclear Option
(1) Nuclear reactions. (2) Reid lobs the bomb. (3) Yellen is in like Flynn. (4) Flying with the doves. (5) The Supreme Leader got a good deal. (6) A second Nobel Peace Prize. (7) Badly wanting a bad deal. (8) “Historic mistake.” (9) Obamacare as “vaporcare.” (10) Oil prices could tumble. (11) Stage set for stock market melt-up. (12) US economy muddling along. (13) Germany looking up, while France looking down.
Hamlets
(1) The show must go on and on. (2) Bullard’s performance. (3) QE is a “booster rocket.” (4) No “obvious” bubbles. (5) Negative interest rates might be in fashion this winter. (6) Fathoming the unfathomable QE exit mess. (7) Lots of QE-or-not-QE questions. (8) Why not tie QE tapering to tapering of the federal deficit? (9) Hamlet on earnings and revenues.
Super-Cycle
(1) Super, but short. (2) Gold’s message. (3) Industrial commodity prices not so super since 2011. (4) When emerging economies emerged. (5) The best cure for high commodity prices. (6) Margin squeeze. (7) Glencore vs. Caterpillar. (8) Slow global growth is bullish for stocks. (9) OECD’s downbeat outlook. (10) Europe’s malaise. (11) Not much heat in global oil demand. (12) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Bubble Balderdash
(1) Financial press is bubbling about bubbles. (2) Yellen doesn’t see any. (3) Summers says we need them. (4) Krugman agrees and wants negative deposit rates. (5) A bubble in Keynesians and their flawed models. (6) Summers says beware of Asiaphoria because slowdowns happen. (7) Another big bang in China? (8) Five-step reform program. (9) China MSCI is cheap. (10) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Transportation stocks.
Party On, Dudes!
(1) Yellen and Gatsby. (2) Yellen is in no rush to taper. (3) Benefits outweigh the costs of QE for now, she said. (4) No bubble in stocks, she said. (5) Bull following lead of FOMC’s doves. (6) Record bond issuance as investors reach for yield. (7) Yellen’s first press conference on March 19 should be bullish. (8) Yellen may have to nurse economy from Obamacare disaster. (9) Yellen stocks. (10) “Dallas Buyers Club” (+ +).
Structural Problems
(1) Cyclical or structural? (2) Unconventional is turning conventional. (3) Great for asset holders, not so for job seekers. (4) Drowning in liquidity. (5) Lots of reasons for subpar growth. (6) The downside of the knowledge economy. (7) Brains putting brawn out of work. (8) Record-high spending on knowledge capital. (9) Margins rising for World IT MSCI, and the index is cheap. (10) Euro zone stocks discounting a recovery that may be weaker than expected.
New Normal Is Bullish
(1) Hit-and-miss ultra-easy monetary policy. (2) Getting back to business. (3) PIMCO’s spin on the new “new normal.” (4) Ambiguous advice. (5) A brief history of the “Bond Vigilantes” model of the bond yield. (6) Bond Zombies. (7) The Fed was horrified. (8) Where is the exit door? (9) Before and after 2008. (10) Signs of life in World-ex US revenues. (11) OECD leading indicators looking good for advanced economies, and not so good for BRICs.
Inflating Inflation
(1) Taper chatter is back. (2) There are two goals in the dual mandate. (3) Inflation remains below target. (4) Consumer durable goods prices on long decline. (5) Drug prices weighing on nondurable goods inflation rate. (6) Rent inflation is boosting services, while hospitals and doctors are not. (7) Why do central bankers want higher inflation? (8) Friedman’s truism not so true recently. (9) Liquidity is boosting asset inflation, not price inflation. (10) Central banks don’t control real incomes. (11) CPI inflation squeezing wages in Japan.
Four Shades of Grey
(1) Talking Ed. (2) Three shades of grey scenarios. (3) Latest GDP and employment reports aren’t black and white. (4) Final sales growing slowly. (5) Is Obamacare draining confidence? (6) New highs for R&D and software spending, and exports too. (7) Preliminary payroll data unreliable. (8) YRI Earned Income Proxy at record high. (9) Europe’s recovery is still a slow-go. (10) ECB spooked by deflation. (11) Obamacare is sickening so far, but could be bullish for stocks.
Sentimental Journey
(1) Stampeding bulls. (2) The Bull/Bear Ratio jumps to 3.54. (3) A melt-up signal: Rising BBR and rising stock prices. (4) Q3 earnings season didn’t lower bullish 2014/15 earnings estimates. (5) Next big deal from the Fed: Less QE-Forever, More NZIRP-Forever. (6) Rosengren sees full employment at 5.25% unemployment rate. (7) A Fed model recommends lowering jobless threshold from 6.5% to 5.5%. (8) An idea whose time is coming. (9) Investors no longer worrying about euro disintegration. (10) Is there more upside for euro zone valuations?
Global Earnings Tour
(1) The earnings “hook.” (2) A recurring pattern. (3) Does 2013 matter anymore? (4) Forward earnings climbing to new record highs almost weekly. (5) US ahead of the pack in world forward earnings derby. (6) Europe’s forward earnings still flat-lining. (7) UK’s is surprisingly weak given strong economic indicators. (8) Japan’s was boosted by Abenomics. (9) Emerging markets' forward earnings aren’t emerging. (10) Industrial commodity prices aren’t helping EMs. (11) China’s forward earnings at record high as profit margin seems to be turning up.
Industrious Industrials
(1) Are companies short-sighted? (2) From “TMT” to “MEI” to “CFI.” (3) Capital goods orders stalled at cyclical high, but orders for factory machinery at record highs. (4) New tech revolution led by Cloud, Big Data, and GPS technologies rather than computer hardware. (5) Backlog of orders for civilian aircraft at record high. (6) Industrials are less volatile way to play global growth than Materials & Energy. (7) Yellen and Yale.
Driving the Global Economy
(1) Some positive surprises. (2) The weakness in industrial commodity prices may be misleading. (3) The end of the super-cycle already? (4) US business sales support 5% growth outlook for S&P 500 revenues. (5) Intermodal railcar loadings at record high. (6) Short-term business credit jumps to record high too. (7) Manufacturing expanding everywhere. (8) Global auto industry leading the pack. (9) Analysts turning more upbeat on global auto margins and earnings as investors boost valuation multiple. (10) “12 Years a Slave" (+ +).
Happy Halloween
(1) Bad news doesn’t spook investors. (2) Bearish technicians have been too panic-prone. (3) Four scary stories for Halloween. (4) Iran’s nuclear “breakout” may be imminent. (5) Israel is rattled and saber-rattling. (6) Was Obamacare designed to fail, but not so fast? (7) Reid’s confession. (8) Havoc in health care industry could depress economy. (9) No deal-makers in DC to make deals. (10) Too many bulls.