Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Rookie Mistakes
(1) The bears made a rookie mistake. (2) QE has been tapered, not terminated. (3) Thanks again, Fairy Godmother! (4) Yellen and Reagan. (5) Unemployment gets personal for Yellen. (6) Did Yellen make a mistake at her first press conference? (7) Putting more weight on wage inflation. (8) Draghi’s problem is strong euro and low inflation. (9) ECB has to stop the talk, and walk the walk. (10) Repeating a rookie mistake in Japan. (11) Bad loans in China weigh on Financials sector. (12) A Tech bubble made in China.
Boston Views
(1) Cold, but calm, in Boston. (2) Mostly bullish, but seeking value. (3) The expansion is mature. (4) The capital-spending debate. (5) Why hasn’t ultra-easy monetary policy been inflationary? (6) Could it be deflationary? (7) Italian and Spanish bond yields anticipating ECB response to deflation risk. (8) Japanese bond yields show skepticism about Abenomics. (9) The profit margin debate. (10) What will it take to revive EMs? (11) Rational and Irrational Exuberance. (12) Putin’s melt-up or meltdown?
Perspectives on Europe
(1) Europhiles in Boston. (2) Is “Stay Home” too consensus? (3) ECB ready to do more of whatever it takes. (4) Bundesbank’s hawk cooing like a dove. (5) Eurozone’s forward revenues and earnings still falling. (6) From momentum stocks to mature ones. (7) Fed lets more banks pay more dividends. (8) Investors rotating into Systems Software and Semiconductors. (9) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Financials.
Internal Correction
(1) S&P 500 remains at record high despite everything. (2) FSMI rebounding. (3) Priciest industries a bit less so. (4) A good excuse for taking some profits out of Biotech. (5) Internet Retailing is full of hot air. (6) Internet Software is cheaper, but not cheap. (7) Is there a shortage of growth stocks? (8) Growth stocks tend to attract attention and well-financed competitive startups. (9) Internal corrections broaden the bull market. (10) Financials may be too cheap now that they are so regulated. (11) The parable of Alibaba and Tencent.
No Place Like Home
(1) The Russians are coming, maybe. (2) El-Erian warns about geopolitical risks. (3) Hilsenrath offers calming spin on Yellenomics. (4) Lots of flashy M-PMIs. (5) Putting a positive spin on China’s weakening MPMI. (6) Round 2 for Abenomics? (7) Has the good news been discounted in the Eurozone? (8) China has an IT bubble. (9) Japan’s stock sectors waiting for the next leg up, or down. (10) US S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings are global standouts.
Stock Market’s Script
(1) DOE may or may not move faster on LNG. (2) What do Nova Scotia and Israel have in common? (3) Europe hooked on Russian gas for now. (4) Russia is a big oil producer too. (5) Monitors going to Ukraine. (6) Stocks still following bullish, not bearish, scripts. (7) Forward earnings still moving forward. (8) Forward earnings yield exceeds bond yield driving buybacks. (9) Bull refuses to correct. (10) The Fed’s third mandate. (11) Yellen’s dashboard now includes wages. (12) “Divergent” (+).
Yellenomics & Geopolitics
(1) No fairy dust yesterday. (2) FOMC participants see 1% fed funds rate at end of 2015. (3) Yellen says ignore the “dot plot.” (4) Reconsidering “considerable time.” (5) From data dependent back to calendar based? (6) Giving Yellen a D for a failure to communicate. (7) Yellen’s dashboard. (8) How’s reset working out? (9) WH freezes Putin’s account. (10) Putin’s Cold War speech. (11) Geopolitics and valuation. (12) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Widening Divergence
(1) S&P 500 going boldly. (2) Not going according to bears’ script. (3) YRI Global Growth Barometer flatlining. (4) Commodities and emerging markets underperforming. (5) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator diverging less with S&P 500. (6) Not much inflation in OECD’s advanced economies. (7) Not enough demand or too much supply? (8) Might easy money be deflationary rather than inflationary? (9) Productivity is outpacing real pay. (10) Excess supply of labor? (11) Unit labor costs driving inflation. (12) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 housing-related industries.
Peace In Our Time
(1) The bull’s dance routine. (2) China and Crimea were bearish last week, but bullish yesterday. (3) China’s latest central plan. (4) More urbanization and fewer migrant workers. (5) Transition is easier said than done. (6) Back in the USSR. (7) Kerry’s Chamberlain press conference. (8) Chauncey Gardner’s forecast for the spring. (9) More fairy dust coming from Yellen. (10) Ali Baba and his friends. (11) Bubbles and macroprudential policies. (12) Focus on over-weight-rated S&P 500 IT.
Forward Guidance
(1) Tweaking the Fed’s forward guidance. (2) Data-dependent guidance needs new data. (3) A brief history of the Fed’s forward guidance. (4) Eeny, Meeny, Miney, Mo. (5) BIS not impressed with forward guidance tool. (6) Credibility and communication. (7) Too much information can reduce credibility. (8) Committee cacophony. (9) NZIRP is bubble-prone. (10) More known unknowns in China, Japan, and Russia. (11) Collateral damage: Copper showing China losing its shine. (12) Confidence falling in Japan. (13) Remember Sudetenland! (14) S&P forward earnings unfazed by global turmoil. (15) Deep freeze hits Q1 earnings. (16) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retailers.
Not So Hot
(1) Agreeable meetings in California. (2) Disagreeable world economy. (3) 1990s all over again? (4) HighTech Revolution remains US-centric. (5) Stay Home vs. Go Global. (6) Professor Copper is turning bearish. (7) CRB commodity index is holding up. (8) OECD leading indicators still upbeat about US, Europe, and Japan. Downbeat on BRICs.
Inflation & Rule of 20
(1) The Golden State. (2) Investors getting their bearings. (3) Lots of unfulfilled bearish scenarios. (4) The Rule of 20 justifies higher P/Es. (5) Near-zero inflation might not be so bullish. (6) Why is inflation so low? (7) Monetarist model hasn’t delivered. (8) Keynesians see slack. (9) Not much cost inflation to push into price inflation. (10) The competitive market model explains it all. (11) Might easy money be deflationary?
The Bull’s Backers
(1) More tapering ahead. (2) S&P 500 highly correlated with QE and lots of other variables. (3) Buybacks driven by forward earnings and corporate bond yield spread. (4) Another big week of corporate bond issuance. (5) Last year was a record year too. (6) NZIRP, not QE, driving buybacks. (7) FOMC’s forward guidance will be updated at next meeting. (8) Gallup says married couples with kids spend more than childless singles. (9) As many singles as married people for the first time ever. (10) Plenty of positives for consumer spending for now. (11) Mixed global signals. (12) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Transportation industries.
Hillary’s Department
(1) Natural gas and diplomacy. (2) Putin helping to resolve a debate in US. (3) Thank goodness for Texas and N. Dakota. (4) Fisher’s irrationally exuberant ghosts. (5) Fed data show elevated valuation multiples. (6) Janet may soon start singing Britney’s “Oops” song. (7) YRI Earned Income Proxy at another record high. (8) Real hourly wage rate at record high. (9) Long-term unemployment remains high. (10) Yellen & Dudley continue to accentuate the negatives. (11) Monetary policy likely to remain ultra-easy and bullish for stocks.
Peace Prize
(1) Putin: A man of peace. (2) All quiet on the stock market front. (3) Geopolitical flare-ups tend to be buying opportunities. (4) Forward P/Es at bull-market highs. (5) Forward earnings stagnating for S&P 500, but still rising for US MSCI. (6) Ex-US, global earnings continue to flat-line. (7) Europe’s recovery is too weak to boost earnings estimates. (8) China staying with 7.5% growth. (9) Pollution is China’s “red-light warning.”
Don't Blink
(1) Shorter panic attacks. (2) Russian markets were blitzed on Monday. (3) Back on melt-up track? (4) Low inflation good for valuations. Deflation bad for earnings. (5) Yellen’s report says temporary factors depressing inflation. (6) There’s deflation in the Eurozone’s PPI. (7) BOJ pumping lots of liquidity to boost inflation a little bit.
Cold War II
(1) The Dirty Half-Dozen: Six worries for the bulls according to the bears. (2) Hot and cold world wars. (3) Upbeat employment stats in US regional surveys. (4) Yields melting down in Eurozone. (5) Draghi’s “danger zone.” (6) Chinese set to announce latest GDP growth target. (7) Will it matter if Abenomics fails? (8) Yellen vs. Plosser: Debating forward guidance. (9) Merkel vs. Putin: Who is in touch with reality? (10) Crimea and lots of other crimes. (11) Summering in Sevastopol. (12) Heating up Cold War II? Not likely.
Paradigm Lost?
(1) The “Fairy Godmother of the Bull Market” does it again. (2) Yellen promises continuity. (3) They didn’t have Bernanke & Yellen in 1929. (4) Yellen sees “soft data” and blames the weather. (5) Yellen says declining participation rate is structural. (6) Baby Boomers are dropping out. (7) Key labor stats Fed is watching. (8) Latest global indicators are mixed. (9) Performance Derby ytd. (10) “Non-Stop” (+).
The Future Is Coming
(1) Forecast often, or far into the future. (2) Another dismal economist. (3) Professor Gordon responds to his critics. (4) Friedman is charged up about “Start-Up America.” (5) Change coming fast and furious. (6) Opportunities for investors. (7) If Abenomics fails, Japan’s future will be bleak. (8) Lots of negative NERIs around the world.
Consumers & Their Confidence
(1) Weathering the weather. (2) Confidence about “now” is at cyclical high. (3) Jobs are more plentiful and less hard to get. (4) Jobless rate may be doing its job well. (5) In the spring there will be growth, and more retail sales. (6) No clear theme in performance of S&P 500 sectors ytd. (7) A year for stock pickers. (8) Pick stocks in sectors with rising earnings expectations. (9) Health Care and Industrials are standouts.
Stagnation?
(1) The man who coined “stagflation.” (2) Plenty of “stag-disinflation.” (3) IMF sees better growth with lower inflation. (4) Professors Summers and Gordon share a bleak view. (5) Draghi on deflation alert. (6) Eurozone’s recovery is anemic. (7) Survey data showing better upturn than hard data. (8) Abenomics has boosted prices, but jury is out on wages and real economy. (9) Stagflation emerging in some EMs. (10) Are revenues, margins, and earnings starting to stagnate too? (11) Staying realistically optimistic.
Flash Correction
(1) The rules of the game. (2) Mark to Markit. (3) Flashy and not-so-flashy M-PMIs of the month. (4) Accentuating the positives again. (5) Blaming the moon and the weather. (6) Regional surveys remained frozen. (7) Quick roundtrip for P/Es. (8) Melt-up is still on the table. (9) Discount traders are back in size. (10) A shortage of stock. (11) EMs are cheap, but may continue to underperform as they have since mid-2011. (12) “The Monuments Men” (- - -).
Running Out of Gas?
(1) Deep freeze freezes economy. (2) An icy soft patch. (3) Weather may not be the only reason for economic weakness. (4) Real GDP outlook: Slow H1, faster H2. (5) Slowing global oil demand suggests slower global economic growth, depressing revenues growth. (6) Oil demand slowing mostly among EMs, especially China. (7) Oil demand rising in US. No longer falling in Europe. (8) After ice melts, there will still be plenty of potholes. (9) How do positive revenues surprises square with near-zero growth? (10) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy.
Credit Is Gold
(1) China’s great liquidity flood. (2) Bailouts for “Credit Equals Gold” and “Opulent Blessing.” (3) Orwellian economics: More credit to slow risky credit. (4) Social financing at $2.8 trillion over last 12 months. (5) Tipping point: When gold turns to lead. (6) PPI details show widespread deflation. (7) Technology and productivity boosting margins? (8) Not good for jobs and social stability. (9) Good news in China MSCI revenues and earnings. (10) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 IT.
Scary Parallel?
(1) Seeing a pattern. (2) Bearish technicians waiting for Godot. (3) Hindenburg and Hulbert omens. (4) Manipulating the scales to maximize the fear factor. (5) The great crash in commodity prices and the SmootHawley Tariff. (6) Is Godot Chinese? (7) Do WMPs = WMFD? (8) Credit = Gold vs. Debt = Lead. (9) China's LTCM? (10) China’s deflation problem. (11) China makes world trade go round. (12) No credit crunch in China. (13) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retailers.