On 100% Depreciation, Rising Earnings & China’s Woes

How much has the OBBBA’s 100% capex depreciation provision boosted companies’ capital expenditures? Melissa has scoured the available data sources to learn, “not much.” On a macro level, business investment hasn’t risen enough to suggest a policy-driven catalyst. Few small businesses credit the OBBBA with affecting their spending plans. And depreciation in and of itself is an earnings headwind for the formerly asset-lite Mag-7, given all their AI-related spending. … Also, Joe reports that analysts have been raising their Q2-2026 estimates during the Q1 reporting season instead of the more typical reverse. … And: William counters the bullish view that China’s economy will weather the war just fine.