Interactive Tool

Macro US Equity Market Bubble Meter

An experiment in AI-assisted predictive modeling: two backtested dials measure how stretched the US stock market is, and whether the forces that ended past booms are under way.

Backtested 1965–2024 (both dials from 1981) · Data as of October 23, 2026

Two dials: conditions and triggers

Conditions measure how stretched the market is: valuation against bonds, market size relative to GDP, the investment share of GDP, foreign buying, IPO activity and consumers’ stock-market expectations. Triggers measure whether the forces that ended past booms, a credit boom and a rising cost of capital, are under way; five are weekly or monthly and one is quarterly.

Each component is ranked as a percentile of its own history (no hindsight) and each dial is the equal-weight average of its components. Low below 50, Moderate 50 to 66, High 67 and above. The dashed needle is the reading three months ago, with each component one quarter earlier.

A note on this experiment. The Macro US Equity Market Bubble Meter is an experiment in using AI as a predictive-modeling tool. We built it with Anthropic’s Claude (Fable 5.1) to assess whether the US stock market has the makings of a bubble and what might cause one to burst. This is an early iteration of an ongoing project: not every data point and rule has been independently audited, and the model is not perfect. Applying our own judgment and reading of the market, we consider its findings directionally accurate. Every calculation uses public data, and its limits are set out in the Notes. We welcome feedback.

Conditions

76High

unchanged from three months ago

Conditions components
Component	Latest	PercentilePctile	3 months ago3 mo ago	AUC
Foreign net buying of US equities, % of GDP	+2.26% of GDP Q2 2026	99th	99th +2.02% of GDP, Q1 2026	0.89
Consumer stock-market expectations (Michigan)	58.7% Sep 2026	71st	74th 59.0%, Jun 2026	0.81
Investment share of GDP	17.9% of GDP Q2 2026	60th	61st 17.9% of GDP, Q1 2026	0.67
Fed model: earnings yield minus 10-yr Treasury	−0.51pp Jun 2026	63rd	60th −0.32pp, Mar 2026	0.66
Buffett ratio: corporate equities / GDP	255% of GDP Q2 2026	100th	99th 219% of GDP, Q1 2026	0.60
IPO activity: 12-month count	352 IPOs Dec 2025	65th	65th 339 IPOs, Sep 2025	0.51

Triggers

45Low

up 3 from 42 three months ago

Triggers components
Component	Latest	PercentilePctile	3 months ago3 mo ago	AUC
NFCI nonfinancial leverage subindex	−0.48 Sep 2026	41st	39th −0.56, Jun 2026	0.83
GZ corporate credit spread	0.93pp Sep 2026	8th	6th 0.86pp, Jun 2026	0.81
C&I loans, 12-month growth	+10.0% y/y Sep 2026	64th	49th +8.2% y/y, Jun 2026	0.70
Household debt/GDP, 4-qtr change	−1.5pp Q2 2026	12th	14th −1.4pp, Q1 2026	0.63
2-yr Treasury yield, rise from 8-qtr low	+1.15pp Sep 2026	61st	45th +0.61pp, Jun 2026	0.63
Margin debt, 12-month growth	+31.4% y/y Sep 2026	84th	96th +49.0% y/y, Jun 2026	0.34

Reading: High conditions, Low triggers

0% of past quarters with this mix were followed by a 20%+ decline within 2 years

In the 24 quarters since 1981 with this mix, the median real S&P 500 return over the following two years was +25%. Base rate for all 175 quarters: 12% and +13.7%. With High conditions and High triggers (17 quarters): 59% and −14.4%.

Quarters overlap, so a cell’s count overstates the number of independent episodes. Treat the shares as rough ratios, not forecasts.

The Metrics

Each series as published, full history. Shaded areas are S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 1

Foreign Net Buying of US Equities

(rest-of-world net purchases of US corporate equities, four-quarter average of the annualized rate, % of nominal GDP, quarterly)

Conditions: foreign buying is at a record pace relative to GDP, as before the 1987, 2000 and 2007 peaks

Foreign buying, % of GDP (Q2 2026 = 2.26%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Foreign Net Buying of US Equities (data)
Date	Foreign buying, % of GDP
Q1 1955	0.05%
Q2 1955	0.04%
Q3 1955	0.05%
Q4 1955	0.03%
Q1 1956	0.03%
Q2 1956	0.03%
Q3 1956	0.03%
Q4 1956	0.06%
Q1 1957	0.07%
Q2 1957	0.07%
Q3 1957	0.05%
Q4 1957	0.03%
Q1 1958	0.00%
Q2 1958	-0.02%
Q3 1958	-0.02%
Q4 1958	-0.01%
Q1 1959	0.00%
Q2 1959	0.02%
Q3 1959	0.04%
Q4 1959	0.07%
Q1 1960	0.08%
Q2 1960	0.08%
Q3 1960	0.06%
Q4 1960	0.04%
Q1 1961	0.03%
Q2 1961	0.04%
Q3 1961	0.04%
Q4 1961	0.06%
Q1 1962	0.04%
Q2 1962	0.02%
Q3 1962	0.02%
Q4 1962	0.02%
Q1 1963	0.02%
Q2 1963	0.03%
Q3 1963	0.03%
Q4 1963	0.03%
Q1 1964	0.01%
Q2 1964	0.00%
Q3 1964	-0.02%
Q4 1964	-0.04%
Q1 1965	-0.03%
Q2 1965	-0.04%
Q3 1965	-0.05%
Q4 1965	-0.05%
Q1 1966	-0.06%
Q2 1966	-0.05%
Q3 1966	-0.03%
Q4 1966	-0.04%
Q1 1967	-0.04%
Q2 1967	-0.02%
Q3 1967	0.02%
Q4 1967	0.08%
Q1 1968	0.11%
Q2 1968	0.16%
Q3 1968	0.18%
Q4 1968	0.22%
Q1 1969	0.26%
Q2 1969	0.21%
Q3 1969	0.18%
Q4 1969	0.15%
Q1 1970	0.07%
Q2 1970	0.05%
Q3 1970	0.06%
Q4 1970	0.06%
Q1 1971	0.08%
Q2 1971	0.08%
Q3 1971	0.07%
Q4 1971	0.07%
Q1 1972	0.12%
Q2 1972	0.13%
Q3 1972	0.15%
Q4 1972	0.18%
Q1 1973	0.22%
Q2 1973	0.21%
Q3 1973	0.23%
Q4 1973	0.19%
Q1 1974	0.13%
Q2 1974	0.11%
Q3 1974	0.06%
Q4 1974	0.01%
Q1 1975	0.03%
Q2 1975	0.07%
Q3 1975	0.12%
Q4 1975	0.17%
Q1 1976	0.18%
Q2 1976	0.15%
Q3 1976	0.10%
Q4 1976	0.04%
Q1 1977	0.01%
Q2 1977	0.02%
Q3 1977	0.03%
Q4 1977	0.06%
Q1 1978	0.06%
Q2 1978	0.09%
Q3 1978	0.08%
Q4 1978	0.05%
Q1 1979	0.06%
Q2 1979	0.03%
Q3 1979	0.03%
Q4 1979	0.04%
Q1 1980	0.09%
Q2 1980	0.09%
Q3 1980	0.09%
Q4 1980	0.14%
Q1 1981	0.12%
Q2 1981	0.21%
Q3 1981	0.20%
Q4 1981	0.15%
Q1 1982	0.12%
Q2 1982	0.06%
Q3 1982	0.07%
Q4 1982	0.11%
Q1 1983	0.15%
Q2 1983	0.16%
Q3 1983	0.16%
Q4 1983	0.13%
Q1 1984	0.07%
Q2 1984	0.02%
Q3 1984	-0.04%
Q4 1984	-0.08%
Q1 1985	-0.12%
Q2 1985	-0.09%
Q3 1985	-0.02%
Q4 1985	0.10%
Q1 1986	0.27%
Q2 1986	0.41%
Q3 1986	0.47%
Q4 1986	0.38%
Q1 1987	0.45%
Q2 1987	0.47%
Q3 1987	0.47%
Q4 1987	0.30%
Q1 1988	0.09%
Q2 1988	-0.07%
Q3 1988	-0.14%
Q4 1988	-0.05%
Q1 1989	-0.03%
Q2 1989	0.04%
Q3 1989	0.13%
Q4 1989	0.15%
Q1 1990	0.08%
Q2 1990	-0.06%
Q3 1990	-0.20%
Q4 1990	-0.28%
Q1 1991	-0.18%
Q2 1991	0.01%
Q3 1991	0.04%
Q4 1991	0.07%
Q1 1992	-0.07%
Q2 1992	-0.25%
Q3 1992	-0.35%
Q4 1992	-0.26%
Q1 1993	-0.12%
Q2 1993	-0.08%
Q3 1993	0.04%
Q4 1993	0.15%
Q1 1994	0.15%
Q2 1994	0.07%
Q3 1994	0.04%
Q4 1994	-0.17%
Q1 1995	-0.28%
Q2 1995	-0.16%
Q3 1995	-0.10%
Q4 1995	0.07%
Q1 1996	0.14%
Q2 1996	0.14%
Q3 1996	0.05%
Q4 1996	-0.03%
Q1 1997	0.03%
Q2 1997	0.23%
Q3 1997	0.56%
Q4 1997	0.61%
Q1 1998	0.86%
Q2 1998	0.73%
Q3 1998	0.31%
Q4 1998	0.32%
Q1 1999	0.12%
Q2 1999	0.35%
Q3 1999	0.68%
Q4 1999	1.05%
Q1 2000	1.60%
Q2 2000	1.60%
Q3 2000	1.94%
Q4 2000	1.89%
Q1 2001	1.70%
Q2 2001	1.67%
Q3 2001	1.34%
Q4 2001	1.24%
Q1 2002	1.04%
Q2 2002	0.86%
Q3 2002	0.74%
Q4 2002	0.56%
Q1 2003	0.31%
Q2 2003	0.32%
Q3 2003	0.14%
Q4 2003	0.16%
Q1 2004	0.15%
Q2 2004	0.02%
Q3 2004	0.12%
Q4 2004	0.38%
Q1 2005	0.54%
Q2 2005	0.61%
Q3 2005	0.81%
Q4 2005	0.62%
Q1 2006	0.91%
Q2 2006	0.96%
Q3 2006	0.93%
Q4 2006	0.85%
Q1 2007	0.64%
Q2 2007	1.15%
Q3 2007	1.06%
Q4 2007	1.66%
Q1 2008	1.89%
Q2 2008	1.45%
Q3 2008	1.43%
Q4 2008	0.86%
Q1 2009	0.53%
Q2 2009	0.62%
Q3 2009	1.03%
Q4 2009	1.32%
Q1 2010	1.56%
Q2 2010	1.40%
Q3 2010	1.07%
Q4 2010	0.85%
Q1 2011	0.65%
Q2 2011	0.63%
Q3 2011	0.55%
Q4 2011	0.27%
Q1 2012	0.32%
Q2 2012	0.08%
Q3 2012	0.16%
Q4 2012	0.83%
Q1 2013	0.55%
Q2 2013	0.40%
Q3 2013	0.69%
Q4 2013	-0.35%
Q1 2014	0.32%
Q2 2014	0.45%
Q3 2014	0.29%
Q4 2014	0.57%
Q1 2015	0.07%
Q2 2015	-0.06%
Q3 2015	-0.44%
Q4 2015	-0.99%
Q1 2016	-1.73%
Q2 2016	-1.73%
Q3 2016	-1.09%
Q4 2016	-0.99%
Q1 2017	-0.02%
Q2 2017	0.10%
Q3 2017	0.12%
Q4 2017	0.57%
Q1 2018	0.96%
Q2 2018	0.75%
Q3 2018	-0.02%
Q4 2018	0.55%
Q1 2019	-1.32%
Q2 2019	-0.35%
Q3 2019	-0.40%
Q4 2019	-1.13%
Q1 2020	1.02%
Q2 2020	0.57%
Q3 2020	1.40%
Q4 2020	3.04%
Q1 2021	2.35%
Q2 2021	1.83%
Q3 2021	1.66%
Q4 2021	-0.54%
Q1 2022	-1.62%
Q2 2022	-0.49%
Q3 2022	-0.87%
Q4 2022	-0.47%
Q1 2023	0.69%
Q2 2023	0.05%
Q3 2023	-0.08%
Q4 2023	0.18%
Q1 2024	-0.45%
Q2 2024	-0.69%
Q3 2024	0.04%
Q4 2024	0.60%
Q1 2025	0.72%
Q2 2025	1.85%
Q3 2025	1.77%
Q4 2025	2.06%
Q1 2026	2.02%
Q2 2026	2.26%

Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 via FRED ROWCEAQ027S and GDP; YRI calculations.

Note: Four-quarter average because quarterly Z.1 flows are volatile and revised. At the 96th percentile or higher at five of six past peaks; the exception is 2021, when foreigners were net sellers.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 2

Consumer Stock-Market Expectations

(mean probability that a $1,000 diversified stock fund is worth more in a year, stock owners, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, monthly)

Conditions: consumers put the odds of a higher market at 59%, top third of the survey’s history

Probability stocks up (Sep 2026 = 58.7%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Consumer Stock-Market Expectations (data)
Date	Probability stocks up
Jun 2002	45.8%
Jul 2002	43.6%
Aug 2002	45.5%
Sep 2002	44.1%
Oct 2002	39.4%
Nov 2002	45.9%
Dec 2002	45.1%
Jan 2003	45.9%
Feb 2003	41.8%
Mar 2003	41.4%
Apr 2003	47.9%
Jun 2003	50.1%
Jul 2003	47.3%
Aug 2003	51.5%
Sep 2003	53.8%
Oct 2003	52.4%
Nov 2003	55.6%
Dec 2003	53.3%
Jan 2004	57.8%
Feb 2004	59.9%
Mar 2004	59.4%
Apr 2004	55.2%
May 2004	56.7%
Jun 2004	57.0%
Jul 2004	56.2%
Aug 2004	57.8%
Sep 2004	54.8%
Oct 2004	55.8%
Nov 2004	57.8%
Dec 2004	58.5%
Jan 2005	55.4%
Feb 2005	60.9%
Mar 2005	55.2%
Apr 2005	55.0%
May 2005	51.5%
Jun 2005	55.9%
Jul 2005	58.7%
Aug 2005	56.0%
Sep 2005	54.0%
Oct 2005	50.0%
Nov 2005	55.6%
Dec 2005	56.5%
Jan 2006	57.4%
Feb 2006	56.9%
Mar 2006	56.7%
Apr 2006	54.5%
May 2006	55.9%
Jun 2006	56.4%
Jul 2006	54.3%
Aug 2006	56.1%
Sep 2006	57.5%
Oct 2006	59.2%
Nov 2006	60.9%
Dec 2006	58.9%
Jan 2007	57.6%
Feb 2007	60.6%
Mar 2007	53.9%
Apr 2007	58.8%
May 2007	61.9%
Jun 2007	56.3%
Jul 2007	62.2%
Aug 2007	56.2%
Sep 2007	58.0%
Oct 2007	58.9%
Nov 2007	56.3%
Dec 2007	55.3%
Jan 2008	53.4%
Feb 2008	51.4%
Mar 2008	46.9%
Apr 2008	46.7%
May 2008	47.1%
Jun 2008	46.0%
Jul 2008	40.6%
Aug 2008	46.2%
Sep 2008	47.1%
Oct 2008	39.8%
Nov 2008	40.1%
Dec 2008	41.1%
Jan 2009	40.4%
Feb 2009	35.0%
Mar 2009	34.0%
Apr 2009	42.8%
May 2009	44.1%
Jun 2009	45.0%
Jul 2009	42.0%
Aug 2009	48.5%
Sep 2009	50.9%
Oct 2009	48.1%
Nov 2009	46.2%
Dec 2009	49.0%
Jan 2010	51.3%
Feb 2010	48.7%
Mar 2010	50.5%
Apr 2010	50.2%
May 2010	51.0%
Jun 2010	46.7%
Jul 2010	44.7%
Aug 2010	45.4%
Sep 2010	45.2%
Oct 2010	46.4%
Nov 2010	50.5%
Dec 2010	50.6%
Jan 2011	50.6%
Feb 2011	50.8%
Mar 2011	48.4%
Apr 2011	49.3%
May 2011	51.8%
Jun 2011	50.7%
Jul 2011	49.2%
Aug 2011	41.4%
Sep 2011	42.9%
Oct 2011	42.9%
Nov 2011	41.9%
Dec 2011	41.9%
Jan 2012	43.0%
Feb 2012	46.7%
Mar 2012	52.8%
Apr 2012	47.9%
May 2012	48.4%
Jun 2012	46.5%
Jul 2012	44.8%
Aug 2012	45.5%
Sep 2012	50.8%
Oct 2012	50.6%
Nov 2012	48.7%
Dec 2012	46.6%
Jan 2013	48.7%
Feb 2013	52.4%
Mar 2013	50.9%
Apr 2013	54.5%
May 2013	55.9%
Jun 2013	55.8%
Jul 2013	54.2%
Aug 2013	56.6%
Sep 2013	53.9%
Oct 2013	53.0%
Nov 2013	57.0%
Dec 2013	56.7%
Jan 2014	57.9%
Feb 2014	55.1%
Mar 2014	56.5%
Apr 2014	56.3%
May 2014	58.7%
Jun 2014	58.1%
Jul 2014	55.9%
Aug 2014	55.8%
Sep 2014	59.4%
Oct 2014	57.2%
Nov 2014	59.9%
Dec 2014	61.5%
Jan 2015	60.0%
Feb 2015	60.5%
Mar 2015	58.8%
Apr 2015	60.4%
May 2015	58.2%
Jun 2015	63.1%
Jul 2015	58.5%
Aug 2015	57.9%
Sep 2015	51.5%
Oct 2015	55.6%
Nov 2015	52.0%
Dec 2015	56.1%
Jan 2016	50.2%
Feb 2016	51.0%
Mar 2016	55.0%
Apr 2016	52.7%
May 2016	55.0%
Jun 2016	54.0%
Jul 2016	54.8%
Aug 2016	55.6%
Sep 2016	59.4%
Oct 2016	54.7%
Nov 2016	54.4%
Dec 2016	56.1%
Jan 2017	58.5%
Feb 2017	60.0%
Mar 2017	61.4%
Apr 2017	58.7%
May 2017	59.0%
Jun 2017	59.1%
Jul 2017	59.2%
Aug 2017	62.7%
Sep 2017	62.9%
Oct 2017	64.5%
Nov 2017	62.2%
Dec 2017	62.4%
Jan 2018	66.7%
Feb 2018	63.8%
Mar 2018	60.2%
Apr 2018	60.8%
May 2018	59.4%
Jun 2018	62.7%
Jul 2018	60.6%
Aug 2018	63.5%
Sep 2018	62.7%
Oct 2018	62.3%
Nov 2018	60.5%
Dec 2018	57.2%
Jan 2019	56.6%
Feb 2019	57.1%
Mar 2019	59.0%
Apr 2019	60.6%
May 2019	63.3%
Jun 2019	60.8%
Jul 2019	64.1%
Aug 2019	57.4%
Sep 2019	56.8%
Oct 2019	57.1%
Nov 2019	61.0%
Dec 2019	63.8%
Jan 2020	65.6%
Feb 2020	65.6%
Mar 2020	57.6%
Apr 2020	56.2%
May 2020	53.9%
Jun 2020	55.0%
Jul 2020	56.3%
Aug 2020	56.8%
Sep 2020	60.6%
Oct 2020	60.3%
Nov 2020	58.3%
Dec 2020	59.8%
Jan 2021	58.6%
Feb 2021	60.4%
Mar 2021	64.6%
Apr 2021	62.3%
May 2021	64.8%
Jun 2021	61.9%
Jul 2021	61.2%
Aug 2021	58.7%
Sep 2021	60.0%
Oct 2021	60.7%
Nov 2021	62.6%
Dec 2021	63.0%
Jan 2022	58.6%
Feb 2022	54.8%
Mar 2022	53.6%
Apr 2022	56.6%
May 2022	50.9%
Jun 2022	46.2%
Jul 2022	41.2%
Aug 2022	48.4%
Sep 2022	44.5%
Oct 2022	43.2%
Nov 2022	43.8%
Dec 2022	47.0%
Jan 2023	46.9%
Feb 2023	47.3%
Mar 2023	45.7%
Apr 2023	50.4%
May 2023	48.6%
Jun 2023	52.5%
Jul 2023	54.5%
Aug 2023	55.8%
Sep 2023	51.9%
Oct 2023	54.4%
Nov 2023	51.1%
Dec 2023	57.2%
Jan 2024	61.6%
Feb 2024	59.2%
Mar 2024	61.3%
Apr 2024	61.9%
May 2024	56.8%
Jun 2024	57.0%
Jul 2024	57.2%
Aug 2024	59.8%
Sep 2024	59.6%
Oct 2024	60.1%
Nov 2024	59.3%
Dec 2024	59.5%
Jan 2025	55.9%
Feb 2025	55.2%
Mar 2025	46.7%
Apr 2025	40.2%
May 2025	44.7%
Jun 2025	52.3%
Jul 2025	58.5%
Aug 2025	56.6%
Sep 2025	57.1%
Oct 2025	56.1%
Nov 2025	58.1%
Dec 2025	59.2%
Jan 2026	58.1%
Feb 2026	58.8%
Mar 2026	56.9%
Apr 2026	52.8%
May 2026	57.9%
Jun 2026	59.0%
Jul 2026	60.4%
Aug 2026	60.6%
Sep 2026	58.7%

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Table 20.

Note: Asked since June 2002 (not in May 2003), so scored from 2012 with one bust in sample; it read at the 96th percentile at the December 2021 peak.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 3

(gross private domestic investment, % of nominal GDP, quarterly)

Conditions: the investment share is above its median but below past peaks

Investment share (Q2 2026 = 17.9%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Gross Private Investment Share of GDP (data)
Date	Investment share
Q1 1947	14.7%
Q2 1947	14.0%
Q3 1947	14.0%
Q4 1947	16.7%
Q1 1948	17.8%
Q2 1948	18.5%
Q3 1948	18.8%
Q4 1948	18.3%
Q1 1949	15.7%
Q2 1949	13.4%
Q3 1949	14.5%
Q4 1949	13.8%
Q1 1950	16.7%
Q2 1950	18.0%
Q3 1950	19.0%
Q4 1950	21.4%
Q1 1951	19.2%
Q2 1951	19.6%
Q3 1951	17.6%
Q4 1951	16.0%
Q1 1952	16.2%
Q2 1952	14.7%
Q3 1952	15.6%
Q4 1952	16.0%
Q1 1953	15.9%
Q2 1953	15.9%
Q3 1953	15.7%
Q4 1953	14.6%
Q1 1954	14.5%
Q2 1954	14.4%
Q3 1954	15.1%
Q4 1954	15.6%
Q1 1955	16.6%
Q2 1955	17.2%
Q3 1955	17.4%
Q4 1955	18.1%
Q1 1956	17.8%
Q2 1956	17.3%
Q3 1956	17.4%
Q4 1956	16.8%
Q1 1957	16.6%
Q2 1957	16.5%
Q3 1957	16.6%
Q4 1957	15.0%
Q1 1958	14.3%
Q2 1958	13.8%
Q3 1958	14.8%
Q4 1958	16.0%
Q1 1959	16.3%
Q2 1959	17.1%
Q3 1959	15.9%
Q4 1959	16.4%
Q1 1960	17.8%
Q2 1960	16.1%
Q3 1960	15.8%
Q4 1960	14.1%
Q1 1961	14.4%
Q2 1961	15.1%
Q3 1961	16.0%
Q4 1961	16.0%
Q1 1962	16.5%
Q2 1962	16.1%
Q3 1962	16.1%
Q4 1962	15.5%
Q1 1963	16.0%
Q2 1963	16.1%
Q3 1963	16.2%
Q4 1963	16.4%
Q1 1964	16.5%
Q2 1964	16.3%
Q3 1964	16.3%
Q4 1964	16.5%
Q1 1965	17.6%
Q2 1965	17.4%
Q3 1965	17.5%
Q4 1965	17.3%
Q1 1966	18.1%
Q2 1966	17.8%
Q3 1966	17.5%
Q4 1966	17.5%
Q1 1967	16.9%
Q2 1967	16.2%
Q3 1967	16.5%
Q4 1967	16.8%
Q1 1968	16.8%
Q2 1968	17.0%
Q3 1968	16.4%
Q4 1968	16.6%
Q1 1969	17.4%
Q2 1969	17.1%
Q3 1969	17.2%
Q4 1969	16.5%
Q1 1970	16.0%
Q2 1970	16.1%
Q3 1970	16.0%
Q4 1970	15.3%
Q1 1971	16.7%
Q2 1971	17.1%
Q3 1971	17.2%
Q4 1971	16.7%
Q1 1972	17.3%
Q2 1972	17.9%
Q3 1972	18.1%
Q4 1972	18.0%
Q1 1973	18.5%
Q2 1973	19.0%
Q3 1973	18.4%
Q4 1973	19.0%
Q1 1974	18.0%
Q2 1974	18.1%
Q3 1974	17.4%
Q4 1974	17.6%
Q1 1975	15.1%
Q2 1975	14.7%
Q3 1975	15.5%
Q4 1975	15.7%
Q1 1976	16.7%
Q2 1976	17.4%
Q3 1976	17.4%
Q4 1976	17.5%
Q1 1977	18.1%
Q2 1977	19.0%
Q3 1977	19.6%
Q4 1977	19.5%
Q1 1978	19.7%
Q2 1978	20.2%
Q3 1978	20.6%
Q4 1978	20.8%
Q1 1979	20.8%
Q2 1979	20.8%
Q3 1979	20.5%
Q4 1979	20.1%
Q1 1980	19.9%
Q2 1980	18.6%
Q3 1980	17.3%
Q4 1980	18.5%
Q1 1981	19.8%
Q2 1981	19.3%
Q3 1981	20.0%
Q4 1981	19.6%
Q1 1982	18.0%
Q2 1982	17.8%
Q3 1982	17.6%
Q4 1982	16.1%
Q1 1983	16.3%
Q2 1983	17.2%
Q3 1983	17.7%
Q4 1983	18.9%
Q1 1984	20.2%
Q2 1984	20.4%
Q3 1984	20.5%
Q4 1984	20.1%
Q1 1985	19.1%
Q2 1985	19.3%
Q3 1985	18.7%
Q4 1985	19.3%
Q1 1986	19.2%
Q2 1986	18.8%
Q3 1986	18.1%
Q4 1986	18.1%
Q1 1987	18.5%
Q2 1987	18.2%
Q3 1987	17.9%
Q4 1987	18.9%
Q1 1988	17.9%
Q2 1988	18.0%
Q3 1988	17.8%
Q4 1988	17.8%
Q1 1989	18.2%
Q2 1989	17.8%
Q3 1989	17.5%
Q4 1989	17.3%
Q1 1990	17.2%
Q2 1990	17.0%
Q3 1990	16.6%
Q4 1990	15.8%
Q1 1991	15.3%
Q2 1991	15.1%
Q3 1991	15.3%
Q4 1991	15.6%
Q1 1992	15.0%
Q2 1992	15.7%
Q3 1992	15.6%
Q4 1992	15.8%
Q1 1993	16.1%
Q2 1993	16.1%
Q3 1993	15.9%
Q4 1993	16.4%
Q1 1994	16.9%
Q2 1994	17.5%
Q3 1994	17.1%
Q4 1994	17.5%
Q1 1995	17.7%
Q2 1995	17.2%
Q3 1995	17.0%
Q4 1995	17.2%
Q1 1996	17.2%
Q2 1996	17.7%
Q3 1996	18.1%
Q4 1996	17.9%
Q1 1997	18.2%
Q2 1997	18.7%
Q3 1997	18.8%
Q4 1997	18.8%
Q1 1998	19.3%
Q2 1998	18.9%
Q3 1998	19.1%
Q4 1998	19.3%
Q1 1999	19.7%
Q2 1999	19.4%
Q3 1999	19.6%
Q4 1999	19.7%
Q1 2000	19.5%
Q2 2000	20.3%
Q3 2000	20.0%
Q4 2000	19.8%
Q1 2001	18.8%
Q2 2001	18.6%
Q3 2001	18.4%
Q4 2001	17.4%
Q1 2002	17.7%
Q2 2002	17.8%
Q3 2002	17.6%
Q4 2002	17.6%
Q1 2003	17.5%
Q2 2003	17.4%
Q3 2003	17.7%
Q4 2003	18.1%
Q1 2004	18.1%
Q2 2004	18.7%
Q3 2004	18.8%
Q4 2004	19.1%
Q1 2005	19.5%
Q2 2005	19.2%
Q3 2005	19.3%
Q4 2005	19.9%
Q1 2006	19.9%
Q2 2006	19.7%
Q3 2006	19.5%
Q4 2006	19.1%
Q1 2007	18.7%
Q2 2007	18.7%
Q3 2007	18.4%
Q4 2007	18.0%
Q1 2008	17.4%
Q2 2008	17.1%
Q3 2008	16.8%
Q4 2008	15.8%
Q1 2009	14.0%
Q2 2009	13.0%
Q3 2009	12.7%
Q4 2009	13.6%
Q1 2010	13.8%
Q2 2010	14.3%
Q3 2010	14.8%
Q4 2010	14.6%
Q1 2011	14.4%
Q2 2011	14.8%
Q3 2011	14.8%
Q4 2011	15.8%
Q1 2012	16.0%
Q2 2012	16.3%
Q3 2012	16.2%
Q4 2012	16.1%
Q1 2013	16.5%
Q2 2013	16.6%
Q3 2013	17.1%
Q4 2013	17.1%
Q1 2014	17.0%
Q2 2014	17.5%
Q3 2014	17.7%
Q4 2014	17.7%
Q1 2015	18.2%
Q2 2015	18.0%
Q3 2015	18.0%
Q4 2015	17.8%
Q1 2016	17.5%
Q2 2016	17.4%
Q3 2016	17.3%
Q4 2016	17.6%
Q1 2017	17.4%
Q2 2017	17.7%
Q3 2017	17.8%
Q4 2017	17.8%
Q1 2018	17.9%
Q2 2018	17.8%
Q3 2018	18.2%
Q4 2018	18.2%
Q1 2019	18.2%
Q2 2019	18.2%
Q3 2019	18.1%
Q4 2019	17.7%
Q1 2020	17.5%
Q2 2020	16.4%
Q3 2020	18.0%
Q4 2020	18.4%
Q1 2021	17.9%
Q2 2021	17.3%
Q3 2021	17.7%
Q4 2021	18.6%
Q1 2022	19.0%
Q2 2022	18.6%
Q3 2022	18.3%
Q4 2022	18.5%
Q1 2023	17.9%
Q2 2023	18.0%
Q3 2023	18.2%
Q4 2023	18.2%
Q1 2024	18.0%
Q2 2024	18.2%
Q3 2024	18.2%
Q4 2024	17.9%
Q1 2025	18.7%
Q2 2025	17.9%
Q3 2025	17.7%
Q4 2025	17.8%
Q1 2026	17.9%
Q2 2026	17.9%

Source: BEA via FRED GPDI and GDP.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 4

Fed Model: Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield

(S&P 500 trailing 12-month earnings yield minus 10-yr Treasury yield, percentage points, monthly)

Conditions: stocks yield less than bonds again; the dial scores a low gap as expensive

Earnings yield minus 10-yr (Jun 2026 = -0.51pp)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Fed Model: Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield (data)
Date	Earnings yield minus 10-yr
Apr 1953	+7.11pp
May 1953	+6.95pp
Jun 1953	+7.37pp
Jul 1953	+7.46pp
Aug 1953	+7.45pp
Sep 1953	+8.09pp
Oct 1953	+7.92pp
Nov 1953	+7.62pp
Dec 1953	+7.52pp
Jan 1954	+7.43pp
Feb 1954	+7.28pp
Mar 1954	+7.23pp
Apr 1954	+7.02pp
May 1954	+6.67pp
Jun 1954	+6.67pp
Jul 1954	+6.41pp
Aug 1954	+6.19pp
Sep 1954	+5.98pp
Oct 1954	+5.89pp
Nov 1954	+5.66pp
Dec 1954	+5.41pp
Jan 1955	+5.35pp
Feb 1955	+5.22pp
Mar 1955	+5.43pp
Apr 1955	+5.32pp
May 1955	+5.57pp
Jun 1955	+5.31pp
Jul 1955	+4.81pp
Aug 1955	+4.96pp
Sep 1955	+4.79pp
Oct 1955	+5.43pp
Nov 1955	+5.03pp
Dec 1955	+5.02pp
Jan 1956	+5.35pp
Feb 1956	+5.41pp
Mar 1956	+4.81pp
Apr 1956	+4.44pp
May 1956	+4.73pp
Jun 1956	+4.78pp
Jul 1956	+4.17pp
Aug 1956	+3.90pp
Sep 1956	+4.01pp
Oct 1956	+4.11pp
Nov 1956	+4.00pp
Dec 1956	+3.75pp
Jan 1957	+4.04pp
Feb 1957	+4.49pp
Mar 1957	+4.31pp
Apr 1957	+4.08pp
May 1957	+3.70pp
Jun 1957	+3.39pp
Jul 1957	+3.15pp
Aug 1957	+3.60pp
Sep 1957	+3.97pp
Oct 1957	+4.36pp
Nov 1957	+4.71pp
Dec 1957	+5.15pp
Jan 1958	+4.92pp
Feb 1958	+4.75pp
Mar 1958	+4.48pp
Apr 1958	+4.37pp
May 1958	+3.94pp
Jun 1958	+3.58pp
Jul 1958	+3.14pp
Aug 1958	+2.53pp
Sep 1958	+2.12pp
Oct 1958	+1.86pp
Nov 1958	+1.76pp
Dec 1958	+1.54pp
Jan 1959	+1.31pp
Feb 1959	+1.58pp
Mar 1959	+1.55pp
Apr 1959	+1.50pp
May 1959	+1.39pp
Jun 1959	+1.58pp
Jul 1959	+1.31pp
Aug 1959	+1.33pp
Sep 1959	+1.33pp
Oct 1959	+1.46pp
Nov 1959	+1.42pp
Dec 1959	+1.05pp
Jan 1960	+1.12pp
Feb 1960	+1.59pp
Mar 1960	+1.91pp
Apr 1960	+1.73pp
May 1960	+1.63pp
Jun 1960	+1.54pp
Jul 1960	+1.94pp
Aug 1960	+1.98pp
Sep 1960	+2.17pp
Oct 1960	+2.20pp
Nov 1960	+1.97pp
Dec 1960	+1.92pp
Jan 1961	+1.54pp
Feb 1961	+1.29pp
Mar 1961	+1.08pp
Apr 1961	+0.88pp
May 1961	+0.88pp
Jun 1961	+0.74pp
Jul 1961	+0.72pp
Aug 1961	+0.45pp
Sep 1961	+0.55pp
Oct 1961	+0.63pp
Nov 1961	+0.48pp
Dec 1961	+0.39pp
Jan 1962	+0.63pp
Feb 1962	+0.67pp
Mar 1962	+0.86pp
Apr 1962	+1.16pp
May 1962	+1.59pp
Jun 1962	+2.33pp
Jul 1962	+2.12pp
Aug 1962	+2.02pp
Sep 1962	+2.11pp
Oct 1962	+2.44pp
Nov 1962	+2.11pp
Dec 1962	+2.00pp
Jan 1963	+1.83pp
Feb 1963	+1.69pp
Mar 1963	+1.72pp
Apr 1963	+1.49pp
May 1963	+1.48pp
Jun 1963	+1.49pp
Jul 1963	+1.60pp
Aug 1963	+1.52pp
Sep 1963	+1.36pp
Oct 1963	+1.34pp
Nov 1963	+1.39pp
Dec 1963	+1.29pp
Jan 1964	+1.16pp
Feb 1964	+1.18pp
Mar 1964	+1.08pp
Apr 1964	+1.06pp
May 1964	+1.10pp
Jun 1964	+1.23pp
Jul 1964	+1.07pp
Aug 1964	+1.20pp
Sep 1964	+1.16pp
Oct 1964	+1.11pp
Nov 1964	+1.14pp
Dec 1964	+1.24pp
Jan 1965	+1.14pp
Feb 1965	+1.13pp
Mar 1965	+1.18pp
Apr 1965	+1.18pp
May 1965	+1.15pp
Jun 1965	+1.48pp
Jul 1965	+1.56pp
Aug 1965	+1.45pp
Sep 1965	+1.28pp
Oct 1965	+1.18pp
Nov 1965	+1.11pp
Dec 1965	+1.04pp
Jan 1966	+1.01pp
Feb 1966	+0.88pp
Mar 1966	+1.14pp
Apr 1966	+1.12pp
May 1966	+1.47pp
Jun 1966	+1.53pp
Jul 1966	+1.36pp
Aug 1966	+1.59pp
Sep 1966	+1.90pp
Oct 1966	+2.15pp
Nov 1966	+1.68pp
Dec 1966	+1.98pp
Jan 1967	+1.95pp
Feb 1967	+1.65pp
Mar 1967	+1.55pp
Apr 1967	+1.36pp
May 1967	+0.95pp
Jun 1967	+0.81pp
Jul 1967	+0.56pp
Aug 1967	+0.34pp
Sep 1967	+0.23pp
Oct 1967	+0.07pp
Nov 1967	-0.01pp
Dec 1967	-0.11pp
Jan 1968	+0.12pp
Feb 1968	+0.39pp
Mar 1968	+0.37pp
Apr 1968	+0.09pp
May 1968	-0.22pp
Jun 1968	-0.18pp
Jul 1968	+0.08pp
Aug 1968	+0.32pp
Sep 1968	+0.13pp
Oct 1968	-0.10pp
Nov 1968	-0.27pp
Dec 1968	-0.62pp
Jan 1969	-0.37pp
Feb 1969	-0.48pp
Mar 1969	-0.44pp
Apr 1969	-0.42pp
May 1969	-0.74pp
Jun 1969	-0.68pp
Jul 1969	-0.54pp
Aug 1969	-0.45pp
Sep 1969	-0.93pp
Oct 1969	-0.97pp
Nov 1969	-1.09pp
Dec 1969	-1.31pp
Jan 1970	-1.45pp
Feb 1970	-0.72pp
Mar 1970	-0.72pp
Apr 1970	-0.88pp
May 1970	-0.60pp
Jun 1970	-0.54pp
Jul 1970	-0.24pp
Aug 1970	-0.58pp
Sep 1970	-0.90pp
Oct 1970	-1.07pp
Nov 1970	-0.66pp
Dec 1970	-0.69pp
Jan 1971	-0.72pp
Feb 1971	-0.77pp
Mar 1971	-0.46pp
Apr 1971	-0.73pp
May 1971	-1.19pp
Jun 1971	-1.19pp
Jul 1971	-1.32pp
Aug 1971	-1.03pp
Sep 1971	-0.68pp
Oct 1971	-0.26pp
Nov 1971	+0.24pp
Dec 1971	-0.18pp
Jan 1972	-0.40pp
Feb 1972	-0.59pp
Mar 1972	-0.68pp
Apr 1972	-0.80pp
May 1972	-0.64pp
Jun 1972	-0.58pp
Jul 1972	-0.49pp
Aug 1972	-0.73pp
Sep 1972	-0.94pp
Oct 1972	-0.79pp
Nov 1972	-0.78pp
Dec 1972	-0.90pp
Jan 1973	-0.93pp
Feb 1973	-0.80pp
Mar 1973	-0.66pp
Apr 1973	-0.38pp
May 1973	-0.24pp
Jun 1973	0.00pp
Jul 1973	-0.15pp
Aug 1973	-0.14pp
Sep 1973	+0.19pp
Oct 1973	+0.36pp
Nov 1973	+1.12pp
Dec 1973	+1.87pp
Jan 1974	+1.57pp
Feb 1974	+1.91pp
Mar 1974	+1.37pp
Apr 1974	+1.67pp
May 1974	+2.03pp
Jun 1974	+2.19pp
Jul 1974	+3.37pp
Aug 1974	+3.78pp
Sep 1974	+5.33pp
Oct 1974	+5.11pp
Nov 1974	+4.81pp
Dec 1974	+5.82pp
Jan 1975	+4.55pp
Feb 1975	+3.34pp
Mar 1975	+2.36pp
Apr 1975	+1.55pp
May 1975	+0.96pp
Jun 1975	+0.75pp
Jul 1975	+0.47pp
Aug 1975	+0.73pp
Sep 1975	+0.73pp
Oct 1975	+0.70pp
Nov 1975	+0.71pp
Dec 1975	+0.97pp
Jan 1976	+0.72pp
Feb 1976	+0.59pp
Mar 1976	+0.84pp
Apr 1976	+1.13pp
May 1976	+1.05pp
Jun 1976	+1.23pp
Jul 1976	+1.14pp
Aug 1976	+1.38pp
Sep 1976	+1.46pp
Oct 1976	+2.08pp
Nov 1976	+2.38pp
Dec 1976	+2.60pp
Jan 1977	+2.39pp
Feb 1977	+2.53pp
Mar 1977	+2.56pp
Apr 1977	+2.92pp
May 1977	+2.98pp
Jun 1977	+3.21pp
Jul 1977	+3.17pp
Aug 1977	+3.46pp
Sep 1977	+3.79pp
Oct 1977	+3.97pp
Nov 1977	+3.91pp
Dec 1977	+3.92pp
Jan 1978	+4.12pp
Feb 1978	+4.23pp
Mar 1978	+4.25pp
Apr 1978	+3.74pp
May 1978	+3.07pp
Jun 1978	+3.04pp
Jul 1978	+3.03pp
Aug 1978	+2.62pp
Sep 1978	+2.72pp
Oct 1978	+3.11pp
Nov 1978	+3.94pp
Dec 1978	+3.82pp
Jan 1979	+3.59pp
Feb 1979	+4.11pp
Mar 1979	+4.17pp
Apr 1979	+4.07pp
May 1979	+4.54pp
Jun 1979	+4.84pp
Jul 1979	+4.87pp
Aug 1979	+4.39pp
Sep 1979	+4.14pp
Oct 1979	+3.77pp
Nov 1979	+3.61pp
Dec 1979	+3.39pp
Jan 1980	+2.73pp
Feb 1980	+0.73pp
Mar 1980	+1.85pp
Apr 1980	+3.26pp
May 1980	+3.80pp
Jun 1980	+3.26pp
Jul 1980	+2.14pp
Aug 1980	+0.84pp
Sep 1980	+0.06pp
Oct 1980	-0.46pp
Nov 1980	-1.80pp
Dec 1980	-1.74pp
Jan 1981	-1.49pp
Feb 1981	-1.77pp
Mar 1981	-2.17pp
Apr 1981	-2.73pp
May 1981	-2.81pp
Jun 1981	-2.12pp
Jul 1981	-2.59pp
Aug 1981	-3.22pp
Sep 1981	-2.41pp
Oct 1981	-2.38pp
Nov 1981	-0.92pp
Dec 1981	-1.31pp
Jan 1982	-1.65pp
Feb 1982	-1.34pp
Mar 1982	-0.49pp
Apr 1982	-1.32pp
May 1982	-1.26pp
Jun 1982	-1.38pp
Jul 1982	-1.18pp
Aug 1982	-0.51pp
Sep 1982	-1.26pp
Oct 1982	-0.92pp
Nov 1982	-1.18pp
Dec 1982	-1.47pp
Jan 1983	-1.75pp
Feb 1983	-2.21pp
Mar 1983	-2.33pp
Apr 1983	-2.49pp
May 1983	-2.74pp
Jun 1983	-3.28pp
Jul 1983	-3.70pp
Aug 1983	-3.81pp
Sep 1983	-3.70pp
Oct 1983	-3.46pp
Nov 1983	-3.34pp
Dec 1983	-3.30pp
Jan 1984	-2.99pp
Feb 1984	-2.40pp
Mar 1984	-2.62pp
Apr 1984	-2.75pp
May 1984	-3.27pp
Jun 1984	-2.98pp
Jul 1984	-2.56pp
Aug 1984	-2.72pp
Sep 1984	-2.55pp
Oct 1984	-2.10pp
Nov 1984	-1.58pp
Dec 1984	-1.38pp
Jan 1985	-1.73pp
Feb 1985	-2.40pp
Mar 1985	-2.72pp
Apr 1985	-2.50pp
May 1985	-2.27pp
Jun 1985	-1.90pp
Jul 1985	-2.27pp
Aug 1985	-2.17pp
Sep 1985	-2.10pp
Oct 1985	-2.17pp
Nov 1985	-2.28pp
Dec 1985	-2.21pp
Jan 1986	-2.19pp
Feb 1986	-2.07pp
Mar 1986	-1.53pp
Apr 1986	-1.17pp
May 1986	-1.57pp
Jun 1986	-1.80pp
Jul 1986	-1.16pp
Aug 1986	-1.13pp
Sep 1986	-1.22pp
Oct 1986	-1.23pp
Nov 1986	-1.29pp
Dec 1986	-1.29pp
Jan 1987	-1.53pp
Feb 1987	-1.95pp
Mar 1987	-2.09pp
Apr 1987	-2.88pp
May 1987	-3.54pp
Jun 1987	-3.62pp
Jul 1987	-3.65pp
Aug 1987	-4.09pp
Sep 1987	-4.44pp
Oct 1987	-3.66pp
Nov 1987	-1.94pp
Dec 1987	-1.73pp
Jan 1988	-1.54pp
Feb 1988	-1.15pp
Mar 1988	-1.37pp
Apr 1988	-1.25pp
May 1988	-1.03pp
Jun 1988	-0.91pp
Jul 1988	-0.88pp
Aug 1988	-0.77pp
Sep 1988	-0.50pp
Oct 1988	-0.48pp
Nov 1988	-0.32pp
Dec 1988	-0.52pp
Jan 1989	-0.63pp
Feb 1989	-0.82pp
Mar 1989	-0.83pp
Apr 1989	-0.89pp
May 1989	-0.85pp
Jun 1989	-0.49pp
Jul 1989	-0.57pp
Aug 1989	-1.13pp
Sep 1989	-1.37pp
Oct 1989	-1.27pp
Nov 1989	-1.07pp
Dec 1989	-1.28pp
Jan 1990	-1.60pp
Feb 1990	-1.79pp
Mar 1990	-2.19pp
Apr 1990	-2.42pp
May 1990	-2.65pp
Jun 1990	-2.58pp
Jul 1990	-2.52pp
Aug 1990	-2.23pp
Sep 1990	-2.00pp
Oct 1990	-1.68pp
Nov 1990	-1.58pp
Dec 1990	-1.59pp
Jan 1991	-1.57pp
Feb 1991	-2.03pp
Mar 1991	-2.49pp
Apr 1991	-2.66pp
May 1991	-2.80pp
Jun 1991	-3.15pp
Jul 1991	-3.30pp
Aug 1991	-3.19pp
Sep 1991	-3.05pp
Oct 1991	-3.08pp
Nov 1991	-3.12pp
Dec 1991	-2.98pp
Jan 1992	-3.17pp
Feb 1992	-3.43pp
Mar 1992	-3.57pp
Apr 1992	-3.44pp
May 1992	-3.35pp
Jun 1992	-3.08pp
Jul 1992	-2.65pp
Aug 1992	-2.35pp
Sep 1992	-2.11pp
Oct 1992	-2.13pp
Nov 1992	-2.44pp
Dec 1992	-2.39pp
Jan 1993	-2.16pp
Feb 1993	-1.82pp
Mar 1993	-1.57pp
Apr 1993	-1.53pp
May 1993	-1.66pp
Jun 1993	-1.65pp
Jul 1993	-1.41pp
Aug 1993	-1.26pp
Sep 1993	-0.92pp
Oct 1993	-0.82pp
Nov 1993	-1.10pp
Dec 1993	-1.07pp
Jan 1994	-1.06pp
Feb 1994	-1.21pp
Mar 1994	-1.58pp
Apr 1994	-1.71pp
May 1994	-1.78pp
Jun 1994	-1.56pp
Jul 1994	-1.56pp
Aug 1994	-1.51pp
Sep 1994	-1.61pp
Oct 1994	-1.61pp
Nov 1994	-1.56pp
Dec 1994	-1.09pp
Jan 1995	-1.06pp
Feb 1995	-0.85pp
Mar 1995	-0.60pp
Apr 1995	-0.53pp
May 1995	-0.18pp
Jun 1995	+0.21pp
Jul 1995	-0.06pp
Aug 1995	-0.24pp
Sep 1995	-0.12pp
Oct 1995	-0.07pp
Nov 1995	-0.16pp
Dec 1995	-0.18pp
Jan 1996	-0.12pp
Feb 1996	-0.57pp
Mar 1996	-1.01pp
Apr 1996	-1.21pp
May 1996	-1.50pp
Jun 1996	-1.69pp
Jul 1996	-1.39pp
Aug 1996	-1.26pp
Sep 1996	-1.50pp
Oct 1996	-1.27pp
Nov 1996	-1.06pp
Dec 1996	-1.09pp
Jan 1997	-1.46pp
Feb 1997	-1.44pp
Mar 1997	-1.61pp
Apr 1997	-1.61pp
May 1997	-1.85pp
Jun 1997	-1.86pp
Jul 1997	-1.83pp
Aug 1997	-1.92pp
Sep 1997	-1.87pp
Oct 1997	-1.79pp
Nov 1997	-1.62pp
Dec 1997	-1.68pp
Jan 1998	-1.42pp
Feb 1998	-1.70pp
Mar 1998	-1.98pp
Apr 1998	-2.10pp
May 1998	-2.12pp
Jun 1998	-1.98pp
Jul 1998	-2.12pp
Aug 1998	-1.77pp
Sep 1998	-1.08pp
Oct 1998	-0.85pp
Nov 1998	-1.52pp
Dec 1998	-1.48pp
Jan 1999	-1.68pp
Feb 1999	-1.94pp
Mar 1999	-2.24pp
Apr 1999	-2.24pp
May 1999	-2.53pp
Jun 1999	-2.80pp
Jul 1999	-2.75pp
Aug 1999	-2.70pp
Sep 1999	-2.59pp
Oct 1999	-2.62pp
Nov 1999	-2.67pp
Dec 1999	-2.91pp
Jan 2000	-3.22pp
Feb 2000	-2.92pp
Mar 2000	-2.73pp
Apr 2000	-2.48pp
May 2000	-2.80pp
Jun 2000	-2.55pp
Jul 2000	-2.48pp
Aug 2000	-2.25pp
Sep 2000	-2.14pp
Oct 2000	-1.97pp
Nov 2000	-2.00pp
Dec 2000	-1.48pp
Jan 2001	-1.53pp
Feb 2001	-1.50pp
Mar 2001	-1.06pp
Apr 2001	-1.56pp
May 2001	-2.27pp
Jun 2001	-2.31pp
Jul 2001	-2.42pp
Aug 2001	-2.33pp
Sep 2001	-2.02pp
Oct 2001	-2.05pp
Nov 2001	-2.36pp
Dec 2001	-2.93pp
Jan 2002	-2.87pp
Feb 2002	-2.67pp
Mar 2002	-3.14pp
Apr 2002	-2.93pp
May 2002	-2.75pp
Jun 2002	-2.29pp
Jul 2002	-1.57pp
Aug 2002	-1.09pp
Sep 2002	-0.41pp
Oct 2002	-0.52pp
Nov 2002	-0.93pp
Dec 2002	-0.96pp
Jan 2003	-0.87pp
Feb 2003	-0.39pp
Mar 2003	-0.23pp
Apr 2003	-0.39pp
May 2003	-0.03pp
Jun 2003	+0.17pp
Jul 2003	-0.36pp
Aug 2003	-0.69pp
Sep 2003	-0.49pp
Oct 2003	-0.25pp
Nov 2003	+0.02pp
Dec 2003	+0.24pp
Jan 2004	+0.25pp
Feb 2004	+0.37pp
Mar 2004	+0.80pp
Apr 2004	+0.36pp
May 2004	+0.25pp
Jun 2004	+0.23pp
Jul 2004	+0.63pp
Aug 2004	+0.98pp
Sep 2004	+1.04pp
Oct 2004	+1.09pp
Nov 2004	+0.80pp
Dec 2004	+0.65pp
Jan 2005	+0.78pp
Feb 2005	+0.80pp
Mar 2005	+0.54pp
Apr 2005	+0.92pp
May 2005	+1.14pp
Jun 2005	+1.26pp
Jul 2005	+1.08pp
Aug 2005	+1.08pp
Sep 2005	+1.22pp
Oct 2005	+1.21pp
Nov 2005	+1.01pp
Dec 2005	+1.06pp
Jan 2006	+1.11pp
Feb 2006	+1.05pp
Mar 2006	+0.90pp
Apr 2006	+0.64pp
May 2006	+0.62pp
Jun 2006	+0.83pp
Jul 2006	+0.93pp
Aug 2006	+1.12pp
Sep 2006	+1.24pp
Oct 2006	+1.10pp
Nov 2006	+1.20pp
Dec 2006	+1.19pp
Jan 2007	+1.00pp
Feb 2007	+1.00pp
Mar 2007	+1.35pp
Apr 2007	+1.03pp
May 2007	+0.83pp
Jun 2007	+0.51pp
Jul 2007	+0.45pp
Aug 2007	+0.88pp
Sep 2007	+0.73pp
Oct 2007	+0.31pp
Nov 2007	+0.66pp
Dec 2007	+0.37pp
Jan 2008	+0.92pp
Feb 2008	+0.86pp
Mar 2008	+1.08pp
Apr 2008	+0.51pp
May 2008	0.00pp
Jun 2008	-0.27pp
Jul 2008	-0.07pp
Aug 2008	-0.16pp
Sep 2008	+0.09pp
Oct 2008	-0.14pp
Nov 2008	-0.67pp
Dec 2008	-0.72pp
Jan 2009	-1.11pp
Feb 2009	-1.69pp
Mar 2009	-1.91pp
Apr 2009	-2.10pp
May 2009	-2.48pp
Jun 2009	-2.91pp
Jul 2009	-2.58pp
Aug 2009	-2.51pp
Sep 2009	-2.20pp
Oct 2009	-1.02pp
Nov 2009	+0.11pp
Dec 2009	+1.00pp
Jan 2010	+1.10pp
Feb 2010	+1.60pp
Mar 2010	+1.56pp
Apr 2010	+1.41pp
May 2010	+2.36pp
Jun 2010	+2.99pp
Jul 2010	+3.35pp
Aug 2010	+3.76pp
Sep 2010	+3.75pp
Oct 2010	+3.75pp
Nov 2010	+3.54pp
Dec 2010	+2.94pp
Jan 2011	+2.74pp
Feb 2011	+2.47pp
Mar 2011	+2.82pp
Apr 2011	+2.71pp
May 2011	+3.03pp
Jun 2011	+3.52pp
Jul 2011	+3.41pp
Aug 2011	+4.95pp
Sep 2011	+5.43pp
Oct 2011	+5.05pp
Nov 2011	+5.08pp
Dec 2011	+5.01pp
Jan 2012	+4.76pp
Feb 2012	+4.54pp
Mar 2012	+4.20pp
Apr 2012	+4.32pp
May 2012	+4.77pp
Jun 2012	+5.02pp
Jul 2012	+4.90pp
Aug 2012	+4.52pp
Sep 2012	+4.27pp
Oct 2012	+4.27pp
Nov 2012	+4.55pp
Dec 2012	+4.36pp
Jan 2013	+3.96pp
Feb 2013	+3.79pp
Mar 2013	+3.70pp
Apr 2013	+3.89pp
May 2013	+3.55pp
Jun 2013	+3.32pp
Jul 2013	+2.94pp
Aug 2013	+2.84pp
Sep 2013	+2.78pp
Oct 2013	+2.98pp
Nov 2013	+2.79pp
Dec 2013	+2.64pp
Jan 2014	+2.65pp
Feb 2014	+2.83pp
Mar 2014	+2.69pp
Apr 2014	+2.74pp
May 2014	+2.86pp
Jun 2014	+2.70pp
Jul 2014	+2.73pp
Aug 2014	+2.93pp
Sep 2014	+2.79pp
Oct 2014	+3.11pp
Nov 2014	+2.73pp
Dec 2014	+2.77pp
Jan 2015	+3.11pp
Feb 2015	+2.84pp
Mar 2015	+2.73pp
Apr 2015	+2.73pp
May 2015	+2.36pp
Jun 2015	+2.16pp
Jul 2015	+2.14pp
Aug 2015	+2.34pp
Sep 2015	+2.49pp
Oct 2015	+2.34pp
Nov 2015	+1.97pp
Dec 2015	+1.97pp
Jan 2016	+2.42pp
Feb 2016	+2.76pp
Mar 2016	+2.39pp
Apr 2016	+2.36pp
May 2016	+2.39pp
Jun 2016	+2.53pp
Jul 2016	+2.58pp
Aug 2016	+2.51pp
Sep 2016	+2.50pp
Oct 2016	+2.48pp
Nov 2016	+2.14pp
Dec 2016	+1.72pp
Jan 2017	+1.81pp
Feb 2017	+1.80pp
Mar 2017	+1.76pp
Apr 2017	+2.00pp
May 2017	+1.99pp
Jun 2017	+2.08pp
Jul 2017	+1.96pp
Aug 2017	+2.11pp
Sep 2017	+2.10pp
Oct 2017	+1.86pp
Nov 2017	+1.85pp
Dec 2017	+1.72pp
Jan 2018	+1.43pp
Feb 2018	+1.34pp
Mar 2018	+1.43pp
Apr 2018	+1.57pp
May 2018	+1.47pp
Jun 2018	+1.54pp
Jul 2018	+1.59pp
Aug 2018	+1.58pp
Sep 2018	+1.49pp
Oct 2018	+1.56pp
Nov 2018	+1.72pp
Dec 2018	+2.33pp
Jan 2019	+2.39pp
Feb 2019	+2.17pp
Mar 2019	+2.22pp
Apr 2019	+2.11pp
May 2019	+2.33pp
Jun 2019	+2.61pp
Jul 2019	+2.43pp
Aug 2019	+2.98pp
Sep 2019	+2.76pp
Oct 2019	+2.83pp
Nov 2019	+2.61pp
Dec 2019	+2.53pp
Jan 2020	+2.26pp
Feb 2020	+2.28pp
Mar 2020	+3.52pp
Apr 2020	+3.35pp
May 2020	+2.92pp
Jun 2020	+2.47pp
Jul 2020	+2.46pp
Aug 2020	+2.26pp
Sep 2020	+2.24pp
Oct 2020	+2.04pp
Nov 2020	+1.82pp
Dec 2020	+1.62pp
Jan 2021	+1.70pp
Feb 2021	+1.75pp
Mar 2021	+1.67pp
Apr 2021	+1.70pp
May 2021	+1.94pp
Jun 2021	+2.23pp
Jul 2021	+2.45pp
Aug 2021	+2.53pp
Sep 2021	+2.57pp
Oct 2021	+2.52pp
Nov 2021	+2.52pp
Dec 2021	+2.76pp
Jan 2022	+2.57pp
Feb 2022	+2.53pp
Mar 2022	+2.38pp
Apr 2022	+1.71pp
May 2022	+1.91pp
Jun 2022	+1.79pp
Jul 2022	+1.97pp
Aug 2022	+1.64pp
Sep 2022	+1.34pp
Oct 2022	+0.91pp
Nov 2022	+0.64pp
Dec 2022	+0.80pp
Jan 2023	+0.85pp
Feb 2023	+0.52pp
Mar 2023	+0.75pp
Apr 2023	+0.84pp
May 2023	+0.75pp
Jun 2023	+0.42pp
Jul 2023	+0.14pp
Aug 2023	-0.03pp
Sep 2023	-0.20pp
Oct 2023	-0.41pp
Nov 2023	-0.25pp
Dec 2023	+0.09pp
Jan 2024	-0.06pp
Feb 2024	-0.38pp
Mar 2024	-0.51pp
Apr 2024	-0.75pp
May 2024	-0.77pp
Jun 2024	-0.69pp
Jul 2024	-0.69pp
Aug 2024	-0.26pp
Sep 2024	-0.16pp
Oct 2024	-0.59pp
Nov 2024	-0.87pp
Dec 2024	-0.89pp
Jan 2025	-1.08pp
Feb 2025	-0.90pp
Mar 2025	-0.47pp
Apr 2025	-0.21pp
May 2025	-0.62pp
Jun 2025	-0.69pp
Jul 2025	-0.79pp
Aug 2025	-0.67pp
Sep 2025	-0.57pp
Oct 2025	-0.54pp
Nov 2025	-0.55pp
Dec 2025	-0.63pp
Jan 2026	-0.64pp
Feb 2026	-0.44pp
Mar 2026	-0.32pp
Apr 2026	-0.40pp
May 2026	-0.65pp
Jun 2026	-0.51pp

Source: S&P 500 earnings yield, multpl.com and FRED GS10; YRI calculations.

Note: Trailing 12-month reported (GAAP) earnings from multpl; months multpl flags as estimates (July 2026 on) are excluded, so the series ends June 2026. The 2008 to 2009 earnings collapse produces the deep negative gap then.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 5

Buffett Ratio: Corporate Equities to GDP

(market value of nonfinancial corporate equities, % of nominal GDP, quarterly)

Conditions: the equity market is a record size relative to the economy

Equities / GDP (Q2 2026 = 255%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Buffett Ratio: Corporate Equities to GDP (data)
Date	Equities / GDP
Q1 1955	49%
Q2 1955	54%
Q3 1955	56%
Q4 1955	56%
Q1 1956	60%
Q2 1956	57%
Q3 1956	55%
Q4 1956	58%
Q1 1957	54%
Q2 1957	58%
Q3 1957	51%
Q4 1957	52%
Q1 1958	56%
Q2 1958	59%
Q3 1958	64%
Q4 1958	65%
Q1 1959	65%
Q2 1959	66%
Q3 1959	65%
Q4 1959	69%
Q1 1960	63%
Q2 1960	64%
Q3 1960	59%
Q4 1960	68%
Q1 1961	75%
Q2 1961	74%
Q3 1961	75%
Q4 1961	75%
Q1 1962	72%
Q2 1962	54%
Q3 1962	57%
Q4 1962	69%
Q1 1963	72%
Q2 1963	75%
Q3 1963	76%
Q4 1963	71%
Q1 1964	74%
Q2 1964	75%
Q3 1964	76%
Q4 1964	78%
Q1 1965	78%
Q2 1965	74%
Q3 1965	79%
Q4 1965	81%
Q1 1966	76%
Q2 1966	72%
Q3 1966	64%
Q4 1966	66%
Q1 1967	74%
Q2 1967	76%
Q3 1967	78%
Q4 1967	81%
Q1 1968	72%
Q2 1968	78%
Q3 1968	77%
Q4 1968	87%
Q1 1969	81%
Q2 1969	77%
Q3 1969	72%
Q4 1969	68%
Q1 1970	65%
Q2 1970	51%
Q3 1970	58%
Q4 1970	65%
Q1 1971	68%
Q2 1971	67%
Q3 1971	65%
Q4 1971	69%
Q1 1972	71%
Q2 1972	69%
Q3 1972	69%
Q4 1972	78%
Q1 1973	71%
Q2 1973	64%
Q3 1973	67%
Q4 1973	55%
Q1 1974	53%
Q2 1974	47%
Q3 1974	35%
Q4 1974	35%
Q1 1975	42%
Q2 1975	48%
Q3 1975	41%
Q4 1975	43%
Q1 1976	48%
Q2 1976	48%
Q3 1976	48%
Q4 1976	48%
Q1 1977	43%
Q2 1977	43%
Q3 1977	40%
Q4 1977	38%
Q1 1978	35%
Q2 1978	36%
Q3 1978	37%
Q4 1978	35%
Q1 1979	36%
Q2 1979	36%
Q3 1979	37%
Q4 1979	37%
Q1 1980	34%
Q2 1980	39%
Q3 1980	43%
Q4 1980	45%
Q1 1981	43%
Q2 1981	42%
Q3 1981	35%
Q4 1981	37%
Q1 1982	33%
Q2 1982	32%
Q3 1982	35%
Q4 1982	41%
Q1 1983	44%
Q2 1983	49%
Q3 1983	46%
Q4 1983	43%
Q1 1984	39%
Q2 1984	36%
Q3 1984	38%
Q4 1984	38%
Q1 1985	40%
Q2 1985	41%
Q3 1985	37%
Q4 1985	43%
Q1 1986	47%
Q2 1986	49%
Q3 1986	44%
Q4 1986	48%
Q1 1987	57%
Q2 1987	58%
Q3 1987	60%
Q4 1987	46%
Q1 1988	48%
Q2 1988	49%
Q3 1988	47%
Q4 1988	47%
Q1 1989	49%
Q2 1989	51%
Q3 1989	54%
Q4 1989	55%
Q1 1990	51%
Q2 1990	53%
Q3 1990	44%
Q4 1990	49%
Q1 1991	56%
Q2 1991	55%
Q3 1991	57%
Q4 1991	64%
Q1 1992	62%
Q2 1992	60%
Q3 1992	61%
Q4 1992	65%
Q1 1993	67%
Q2 1993	66%
Q3 1993	68%
Q4 1993	69%
Q1 1994	66%
Q2 1994	63%
Q3 1994	66%
Q4 1994	65%
Q1 1995	69%
Q2 1995	74%
Q3 1995	79%
Q4 1995	83%
Q1 1996	86%
Q2 1996	88%
Q3 1996	87%
Q4 1996	90%
Q1 1997	89%
Q2 1997	101%
Q3 1997	107%
Q4 1997	108%
Q1 1998	122%
Q2 1998	122%
Q3 1998	109%
Q4 1998	128%
Q1 1999	129%
Q2 1999	139%
Q3 1999	131%
Q4 1999	155%
Q1 2000	163%
Q2 2000	152%
Q3 2000	148%
Q4 2000	128%
Q1 2001	113%
Q2 2001	119%
Q3 2001	100%
Q4 2001	112%
Q1 2002	111%
Q2 2002	96%
Q3 2002	79%
Q4 2002	84%
Q1 2003	81%
Q2 2003	92%
Q3 2003	93%
Q4 2003	101%
Q1 2004	104%
Q2 2004	104%
Q3 2004	100%
Q4 2004	108%
Q1 2005	106%
Q2 2005	106%
Q3 2005	108%
Q4 2005	107%
Q1 2006	112%
Q2 2006	107%
Q3 2006	109%
Q4 2006	114%
Q1 2007	117%
Q2 2007	121%
Q3 2007	121%
Q4 2007	115%
Q1 2008	106%
Q2 2008	104%
Q3 2008	93%
Q4 2008	76%
Q1 2009	69%
Q2 2009	79%
Q3 2009	90%
Q4 2009	93%
Q1 2010	96%
Q2 2010	85%
Q3 2010	94%
Q4 2010	102%
Q1 2011	108%
Q2 2011	106%
Q3 2011	91%
Q4 2011	98%
Q1 2012	106%
Q2 2012	102%
Q3 2012	108%
Q4 2012	107%
Q1 2013	118%
Q2 2013	120%
Q3 2013	124%
Q4 2013	132%
Q1 2014	136%
Q2 2014	140%
Q3 2014	137%
Q4 2014	141%
Q1 2015	141%
Q2 2015	138%
Q3 2015	127%
Q4 2015	132%
Q1 2016	134%
Q2 2016	135%
Q3 2016	137%
Q4 2016	135%
Q1 2017	141%
Q2 2017	143%
Q3 2017	145%
Q4 2017	150%
Q1 2018	146%
Q2 2018	150%
Q3 2018	157%
Q4 2018	134%
Q1 2019	151%
Q2 2019	153%
Q3 2019	151%
Q4 2019	160%
Q1 2020	129%
Q2 2020	173%
Q3 2020	176%
Q4 2020	198%
Q1 2021	206%
Q2 2021	215%
Q3 2021	211%
Q4 2021	219%
Q1 2022	203%
Q2 2022	164%
Q3 2022	153%
Q4 2022	157%
Q1 2023	167%
Q2 2023	178%
Q3 2023	167%
Q4 2023	182%
Q1 2024	197%
Q2 2024	199%
Q3 2024	208%
Q4 2024	210%
Q1 2025	197%
Q2 2025	213%
Q3 2025	226%
Q4 2025	229%
Q1 2026	220%
Q2 2026	255%

Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 via FRED NCBEILQ027S and GDP; YRI calculations.

Note: Buffett used the Wilshire 5000 and GNP; that index is no longer on FRED, so Z.1 nonfinancial corporate equities are used. Replaces the household equity share (97% rank-correlated).

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 6

IPO Activity

(number of US IPOs in the trailing 12 months, gross count including SPACs, closed-end funds and other listings, monthly)

Conditions: IPO volume is above its median but far below the 1983, 1996 and 2021 peaks (data through December 2025)

IPOs, trailing 12 months (Dec 2025 = 352)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

IPO Activity (data)
Date	IPOs, trailing 12 months
Dec 1960	269
Jan 1961	264
Feb 1961	275
Mar 1961	279
Apr 1961	290
May 1961	313
Jun 1961	302
Jul 1961	314
Aug 1961	341
Sep 1961	358
Oct 1961	384
Nov 1961	399
Dec 1961	435
Jan 1962	464
Feb 1962	468
Mar 1962	493
Apr 1962	540
May 1962	538
Jun 1962	514
Jul 1962	491
Aug 1962	448
Sep 1962	428
Oct 1962	382
Nov 1962	340
Dec 1962	298
Jan 1963	260
Feb 1963	234
Mar 1963	191
Apr 1963	125
May 1963	93
Jun 1963	98
Jul 1963	98
Aug 1963	98
Sep 1963	89
Oct 1963	90
Nov 1963	87
Dec 1963	83
Jan 1964	91
Feb 1964	90
Mar 1964	85
Apr 1964	88
May 1964	92
Jun 1964	90
Jul 1964	89
Aug 1964	93
Sep 1964	93
Oct 1964	93
Nov 1964	93
Dec 1964	97
Jan 1965	93
Feb 1965	96
Mar 1965	107
Apr 1965	120
May 1965	121
Jun 1965	121
Jul 1965	124
Aug 1965	121
Sep 1965	130
Oct 1965	133
Nov 1965	145
Dec 1965	146
Jan 1966	145
Feb 1966	142
Mar 1966	138
Apr 1966	130
May 1966	127
Jun 1966	132
Jul 1966	132
Aug 1966	129
Sep 1966	113
Oct 1966	107
Nov 1966	92
Dec 1966	84
Jan 1967	81
Feb 1967	81
Mar 1967	76
Apr 1967	72
May 1967	70
Jun 1967	62
Jul 1967	61
Aug 1967	68
Sep 1967	76
Oct 1967	83
Nov 1967	92
Dec 1967	100
Jan 1968	113
Feb 1968	123
Mar 1968	140
Apr 1968	146
May 1968	166
Jun 1968	184
Jul 1968	207
Aug 1968	219
Sep 1968	239
Oct 1968	280
Nov 1968	318
Dec 1968	368
Jan 1969	421
Feb 1969	461
Mar 1969	528
Apr 1969	586
May 1969	630
Jun 1969	685
Jul 1969	689
Aug 1969	698
Sep 1969	723
Oct 1969	755
Nov 1969	771
Dec 1969	781
Jan 1970	789
Feb 1970	773
Mar 1970	723
Apr 1970	681
May 1970	620
Jun 1970	568
Jul 1970	557
Aug 1970	541
Sep 1970	507
Oct 1970	445
Nov 1970	407
Dec 1970	358
Jan 1971	299
Feb 1971	280
Mar 1971	274
Apr 1971	272
May 1971	290
Jun 1971	294
Jul 1971	303
Aug 1971	317
Sep 1971	334
Oct 1971	346
Nov 1971	365
Dec 1971	391
Jan 1972	413
Feb 1972	432
Mar 1972	466
Apr 1972	500
May 1972	520
Jun 1972	556
Jul 1972	556
Aug 1972	576
Sep 1972	571
Oct 1972	579
Nov 1972	570
Dec 1972	562
Jan 1973	554
Feb 1973	537
Mar 1973	480
Apr 1973	422
May 1973	381
Jun 1973	317
Jul 1973	286
Aug 1973	241
Sep 1973	214
Oct 1973	180
Nov 1973	145
Dec 1973	105
Jan 1974	74
Feb 1974	58
Mar 1974	51
Apr 1974	43
May 1974	35
Jun 1974	35
Jul 1974	34
Aug 1974	28
Sep 1974	23
Oct 1974	14
Nov 1974	9
Dec 1974	9
Jan 1975	10
Feb 1975	6
Mar 1975	4
Apr 1975	4
May 1975	4
Jun 1975	4
Jul 1975	5
Aug 1975	6
Sep 1975	9
Oct 1975	12
Nov 1975	13
Dec 1975	14
Jan 1976	19
Feb 1976	19
Mar 1976	21
Apr 1976	21
May 1976	25
Jun 1976	27
Jul 1976	30
Aug 1976	31
Sep 1976	34
Oct 1976	32
Nov 1976	32
Dec 1976	35
Jan 1977	33
Feb 1977	34
Mar 1977	35
Apr 1977	40
May 1977	37
Jun 1977	38
Jul 1977	37
Aug 1977	37
Sep 1977	32
Oct 1977	35
Nov 1977	36
Dec 1977	35
Jan 1978	34
Feb 1978	34
Mar 1978	33
Apr 1978	34
May 1978	35
Jun 1978	34
Jul 1978	34
Aug 1978	36
Sep 1978	41
Oct 1978	42
Nov 1978	45
Dec 1978	50
Jan 1979	53
Feb 1979	54
Mar 1979	58
Apr 1979	57
May 1979	63
Jun 1979	68
Jul 1979	70
Aug 1979	71
Sep 1979	69
Oct 1979	75
Nov 1979	76
Dec 1979	81
Jan 1980	89
Feb 1980	94
Mar 1980	97
Apr 1980	101
May 1980	106
Jun 1980	115
Jul 1980	136
Aug 1980	155
Sep 1980	176
Oct 1980	199
Nov 1980	216
Dec 1980	238
Jan 1981	248
Feb 1981	272
Mar 1981	302
Apr 1981	349
May 1981	382
Jun 1981	426
Jul 1981	442
Aug 1981	455
Sep 1981	450
Oct 1981	453
Nov 1981	457
Dec 1981	450
Jan 1982	441
Feb 1982	423
Mar 1982	397
Apr 1982	359
May 1982	332
Jun 1982	284
Jul 1982	256
Aug 1982	230
Sep 1982	226
Oct 1982	211
Nov 1982	206
Dec 1982	222
Jan 1983	231
Feb 1983	258
Mar 1983	305
Apr 1983	330
May 1983	379
Jun 1983	450
Jul 1983	531
Aug 1983	624
Sep 1983	692
Oct 1983	756
Nov 1983	818
Dec 1983	883
Jan 1984	926
Feb 1984	946
Mar 1984	942
Apr 1984	938
May 1984	920
Jun 1984	884
Jul 1984	828
Aug 1984	775
Sep 1984	719
Oct 1984	673
Nov 1984	629
Dec 1984	552
Jan 1985	515
Feb 1985	480
Mar 1985	463
Apr 1985	464
May 1985	454
Jun 1985	445
Jul 1985	451
Aug 1985	446
Sep 1985	462
Oct 1985	487
Nov 1985	496
Dec 1985	507
Jan 1986	514
Feb 1986	540
Mar 1986	572
Apr 1986	580
May 1986	628
Jun 1986	710
Jul 1986	760
Aug 1986	806
Sep 1986	829
Oct 1986	850
Nov 1986	891
Dec 1986	953
Jan 1987	954
Feb 1987	960
Mar 1987	962
Apr 1987	971
May 1987	934
Jun 1987	892
Jul 1987	881
Aug 1987	852
Sep 1987	845
Oct 1987	797
Nov 1987	728
Dec 1987	630
Jan 1988	604
Feb 1988	560
Mar 1988	506
Apr 1988	468
May 1988	441
Jun 1988	387
Jul 1988	327
Aug 1988	284
Sep 1988	235
Oct 1988	222
Nov 1988	214
Dec 1988	227
Jan 1989	223
Feb 1989	222
Mar 1989	214
Apr 1989	207
May 1989	207
Jun 1989	198
Jul 1989	192
Aug 1989	187
Sep 1989	189
Oct 1989	181
Nov 1989	199
Dec 1989	204
Jan 1990	208
Feb 1990	208
Mar 1990	216
Apr 1990	226
May 1990	221
Jun 1990	226
Jul 1990	232
Aug 1990	232
Sep 1990	226
Oct 1990	213
Nov 1990	187
Dec 1990	172
Jan 1991	164
Feb 1991	158
Mar 1991	157
Apr 1991	163
May 1991	172
Jun 1991	197
Jul 1991	211
Aug 1991	231
Sep 1991	247
Oct 1991	289
Nov 1991	335
Dec 1991	367
Jan 1992	405
Feb 1992	444
Mar 1992	493
Apr 1992	510
May 1992	530
Jun 1992	527
Jul 1992	523
Aug 1992	524
Sep 1992	523
Oct 1992	528
Nov 1992	504
Dec 1992	509
Jan 1993	489
Feb 1993	479
Mar 1993	474
Apr 1993	460
May 1993	460
Jun 1993	473
Jul 1993	497
Aug 1993	515
Sep 1993	540
Oct 1993	547
Nov 1993	598
Dec 1993	627
Jan 1994	631
Feb 1994	657
Mar 1994	656
Apr 1994	673
May 1994	696
Jun 1994	692
Jul 1994	675
Aug 1994	664
Sep 1994	654
Oct 1994	642
Nov 1994	608
Dec 1994	568
Jan 1995	560
Feb 1995	535
Mar 1995	503
Apr 1995	486
May 1995	450
Jun 1995	452
Jul 1995	461
Aug 1995	471
Sep 1995	469
Oct 1995	485
Nov 1995	525
Dec 1995	566
Jan 1996	577
Feb 1996	605
Mar 1996	649
Apr 1996	685
May 1996	744
Jun 1996	776
Jul 1996	792
Aug 1996	797
Sep 1996	821
Oct 1996	865
Nov 1996	862
Dec 1996	845
Jan 1997	851
Feb 1997	848
Mar 1997	814
Apr 1997	780
May 1997	729
Jun 1997	705
Jul 1997	694
Aug 1997	684
Sep 1997	679
Oct 1997	638
Nov 1997	637
Dec 1997	612
Jan 1998	598
Feb 1998	587
Mar 1998	589
Apr 1998	598
May 1998	606
Jun 1998	604
Jul 1998	599
Aug 1998	571
Sep 1998	524
Oct 1998	465
Nov 1998	404
Dec 1998	392
Jan 1999	397
Feb 1999	382
Mar 1999	363
Apr 1999	358
May 1999	362
Jun 1999	361
Jul 1999	375
Aug 1999	395
Sep 1999	431
Oct 1999	487
Nov 1999	526
Dec 1999	544
Jan 2000	533
Feb 2000	557
Mar 2000	595
Apr 2000	595
May 2000	563
Jun 2000	539
Jul 2000	521
Aug 2000	546
Sep 2000	528
Oct 2000	492
Nov 2000	456
Dec 2000	424
Jan 2001	419
Feb 2001	369
Mar 2001	324
Apr 2001	291
May 2001	280
Jun 2001	260
Jul 2001	229
Aug 2001	169
Sep 2001	150
Oct 2001	134
Nov 2001	128
Dec 2001	132
Jan 2002	128
Feb 2002	127
Mar 2002	127
Apr 2002	137
May 2002	143
Jun 2002	144
Jul 2002	141
Aug 2002	143
Sep 2002	146
Oct 2002	156
Nov 2002	163
Dec 2002	160
Jan 2003	155
Feb 2003	152
Mar 2003	141
Apr 2003	130
May 2003	117
Jun 2003	110
Jul 2003	114
Aug 2003	118
Sep 2003	122
Oct 2003	117
Nov 2003	114
Dec 2003	132
Jan 2004	142
Feb 2004	162
Mar 2004	180
Apr 2004	196
May 2004	211
Jun 2004	233
Jul 2004	251
Aug 2004	262
Sep 2004	269
Oct 2004	294
Nov 2004	295
Dec 2004	303
Jan 2005	306
Feb 2005	312
Mar 2005	303
Apr 2005	297
May 2005	298
Jun 2005	300
Jul 2005	295
Aug 2005	310
Sep 2005	310
Oct 2005	293
Nov 2005	293
Dec 2005	280
Jan 2006	282
Feb 2006	273
Mar 2006	274
Apr 2006	280
May 2006	276
Jun 2006	268
Jul 2006	256
Aug 2006	229
Sep 2006	227
Oct 2006	229
Nov 2006	240
Dec 2006	255
Jan 2007	257
Feb 2007	257
Mar 2007	264
Apr 2007	258
May 2007	269
Jun 2007	263
Jul 2007	265
Aug 2007	272
Sep 2007	259
Oct 2007	257
Nov 2007	264
Dec 2007	249
Jan 2008	245
Feb 2008	230
Mar 2008	214
Apr 2008	206
May 2008	185
Jun 2008	170
Jul 2008	155
Aug 2008	143
Sep 2008	138
Oct 2008	115
Nov 2008	77
Dec 2008	54
Jan 2009	41
Feb 2009	35
Mar 2009	32
Apr 2009	34
May 2009	31
Jun 2009	34
Jul 2009	34
Aug 2009	34
Sep 2009	46
Oct 2009	59
Nov 2009	69
Dec 2009	76
Jan 2010	87
Feb 2010	93
Mar 2010	106
Apr 2010	115
May 2010	125
Jun 2010	132
Jul 2010	143
Aug 2010	154
Sep 2010	157
Oct 2010	169
Nov 2010	184
Dec 2010	197
Jan 2011	201
Feb 2011	214
Mar 2011	212
Apr 2011	218
May 2011	233
Jun 2011	236
Jul 2011	238
Aug 2011	227
Sep 2011	215
Oct 2011	198
Nov 2011	190
Dec 2011	180
Jan 2012	170
Feb 2012	169
Mar 2012	180
Apr 2012	178
May 2012	162
Jun 2012	152
Jul 2012	154
Aug 2012	160
Sep 2012	167
Oct 2012	187
Nov 2012	181
Dec 2012	179
Jan 2013	186
Feb 2013	176
Mar 2013	169
Apr 2013	165
May 2013	183
Jun 2013	200
Jul 2013	204
Aug 2013	209
Sep 2013	223
Oct 2013	228
Nov 2013	247
Dec 2013	252
Jan 2014	258
Feb 2014	271
Mar 2014	286
Apr 2014	298
May 2014	290
Jun 2014	297
Jul 2014	311
Aug 2014	309
Sep 2014	302
Oct 2014	305
Nov 2014	302
Dec 2014	305
Jan 2015	300
Feb 2015	289
Mar 2015	267
Apr 2015	256
May 2015	256
Jun 2015	254
Jul 2015	240
Aug 2015	236
Sep 2015	226
Oct 2015	210
Nov 2015	196
Dec 2015	182
Jan 2016	168
Feb 2016	161
Mar 2016	155
Apr 2016	146
May 2016	142
Jun 2016	121
Jul 2016	109
Aug 2016	107
Sep 2016	117
Oct 2016	118
Nov 2016	107
Dec 2016	113
Jan 2017	123
Feb 2017	126
Mar 2017	136
Apr 2017	148
May 2017	148
Jun 2017	162
Jul 2017	166
Aug 2017	166
Sep 2017	168
Oct 2017	169
Nov 2017	198
Dec 2017	202
Jan 2018	212
Feb 2018	223
Mar 2018	226
Apr 2018	219
May 2018	223
Jun 2018	236
Jul 2018	246
Aug 2018	253
Sep 2018	258
Oct 2018	263
Nov 2018	242
Dec 2018	239
Jan 2019	227
Feb 2019	228
Mar 2019	224
Apr 2019	229
May 2019	239
Jun 2019	227
Jul 2019	226
Aug 2019	221
Sep 2019	212
Oct 2019	205
Nov 2019	222
Dec 2019	226
Jan 2020	231
Feb 2020	231
Mar 2020	223
Apr 2020	214
May 2020	198
Jun 2020	210
Jul 2020	232
Aug 2020	268
Sep 2020	318
Oct 2020	390
Nov 2020	404
Dec 2020	464
Jan 2021	570
Feb 2021	681
Mar 2021	827
Apr 2021	866
May 2021	892
Jun 2021	935
Jul 2021	987
Aug 2021	981
Sep 2021	969
Oct 2021	978
Nov 2021	1,028
Dec 2021	1,018
Jan 2022	936
Feb 2022	839
Mar 2022	702
Apr 2022	671
May 2022	643
Jun 2022	573
Jul 2022	479
Aug 2022	458
Sep 2022	416
Oct 2022	321
Nov 2022	234
Dec 2022	178
Jan 2023	149
Feb 2023	129
Mar 2023	133
Apr 2023	131
May 2023	125
Jun 2023	125
Jul 2023	135
Aug 2023	128
Sep 2023	134
Oct 2023	143
Nov 2023	153
Dec 2023	153
Jan 2024	156
Feb 2024	157
Mar 2024	151
Apr 2024	157
May 2024	161
Jun 2024	167
Jul 2024	171
Aug 2024	177
Sep 2024	184
Oct 2024	204
Nov 2024	208
Dec 2024	221
Jan 2025	237
Feb 2025	251
Mar 2025	258
Apr 2025	270
May 2025	292
Jun 2025	303
Jul 2025	322
Aug 2025	332
Sep 2025	339
Oct 2025	339
Nov 2025	339
Dec 2025	352

Source: Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida, IPOALL.xlsx; YRI calculations.

Note: Ritter’s file is updated once a year and ends December 2025, so the component is read at Q4 2025. The gross count is used for its 1960 start; the net count (ex-SPACs, funds and penny stocks) reads 90 for 2025, 31st percentile. Average first-day return of 2025 IPOs: 36%, 90th percentile.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 7

NFCI Nonfinancial Leverage Subindex

(Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, nonfinancial leverage subindex, weekly; positive = more leverage than average)

Triggers: household and business leverage is below its long-run average

Nonfinancial leverage (Oct 16, 2026 = -0.47)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

NFCI Nonfinancial Leverage Subindex (data)
Date	Nonfinancial leverage
Jan 8, 1971	-1.45
Jan 15, 1971	-1.46
Jan 22, 1971	-1.48
Jan 29, 1971	-1.49
Feb 5, 1971	-1.50
Feb 12, 1971	-1.51
Feb 19, 1971	-1.52
Feb 26, 1971	-1.52
Mar 5, 1971	-1.52
Mar 12, 1971	-1.52
Mar 19, 1971	-1.51
Mar 26, 1971	-1.50
Apr 2, 1971	-1.49
Apr 9, 1971	-1.48
Apr 16, 1971	-1.46
Apr 23, 1971	-1.45
Apr 30, 1971	-1.43
May 7, 1971	-1.42
May 14, 1971	-1.40
May 21, 1971	-1.38
May 28, 1971	-1.36
Jun 4, 1971	-1.34
Jun 11, 1971	-1.32
Jun 18, 1971	-1.30
Jun 25, 1971	-1.29
Jul 2, 1971	-1.27
Jul 9, 1971	-1.25
Jul 16, 1971	-1.23
Jul 23, 1971	-1.22
Jul 30, 1971	-1.20
Aug 6, 1971	-1.19
Aug 13, 1971	-1.17
Aug 20, 1971	-1.16
Aug 27, 1971	-1.14
Sep 3, 1971	-1.13
Sep 10, 1971	-1.12
Sep 17, 1971	-1.11
Sep 24, 1971	-1.09
Oct 1, 1971	-1.08
Oct 8, 1971	-1.07
Oct 15, 1971	-1.06
Oct 22, 1971	-1.05
Oct 29, 1971	-1.04
Nov 5, 1971	-1.03
Nov 12, 1971	-1.01
Nov 19, 1971	-1.00
Nov 26, 1971	-0.99
Dec 3, 1971	-0.98
Dec 10, 1971	-0.97
Dec 17, 1971	-0.96
Dec 24, 1971	-0.95
Dec 31, 1971	-0.94
Jan 7, 1972	-0.93
Jan 14, 1972	-0.91
Jan 21, 1972	-0.90
Jan 28, 1972	-0.89
Feb 4, 1972	-0.87
Feb 11, 1972	-0.86
Feb 18, 1972	-0.84
Feb 25, 1972	-0.83
Mar 3, 1972	-0.81
Mar 10, 1972	-0.79
Mar 17, 1972	-0.77
Mar 24, 1972	-0.75
Mar 31, 1972	-0.73
Apr 7, 1972	-0.71
Apr 14, 1972	-0.69
Apr 21, 1972	-0.67
Apr 28, 1972	-0.65
May 5, 1972	-0.63
May 12, 1972	-0.61
May 19, 1972	-0.59
May 26, 1972	-0.57
Jun 2, 1972	-0.55
Jun 9, 1972	-0.52
Jun 16, 1972	-0.50
Jun 23, 1972	-0.48
Jun 30, 1972	-0.46
Jul 7, 1972	-0.44
Jul 14, 1972	-0.43
Jul 21, 1972	-0.41
Jul 28, 1972	-0.39
Aug 4, 1972	-0.37
Aug 11, 1972	-0.36
Aug 18, 1972	-0.34
Aug 25, 1972	-0.32
Sep 1, 1972	-0.31
Sep 8, 1972	-0.29
Sep 15, 1972	-0.28
Sep 22, 1972	-0.27
Sep 29, 1972	-0.25
Oct 6, 1972	-0.24
Oct 13, 1972	-0.23
Oct 20, 1972	-0.21
Oct 27, 1972	-0.20
Nov 3, 1972	-0.19
Nov 10, 1972	-0.17
Nov 17, 1972	-0.16
Nov 24, 1972	-0.14
Dec 1, 1972	-0.13
Dec 8, 1972	-0.11
Dec 15, 1972	-0.09
Dec 22, 1972	-0.07
Dec 29, 1972	-0.05
Jan 5, 1973	-0.03
Jan 12, 1973	-0.01
Jan 19, 1973	0.02
Jan 26, 1973	0.04
Feb 2, 1973	0.07
Feb 9, 1973	0.10
Feb 16, 1973	0.12
Feb 23, 1973	0.15
Mar 2, 1973	0.18
Mar 9, 1973	0.22
Mar 16, 1973	0.25
Mar 23, 1973	0.28
Mar 30, 1973	0.31
Apr 6, 1973	0.35
Apr 13, 1973	0.38
Apr 20, 1973	0.41
Apr 27, 1973	0.44
May 4, 1973	0.47
May 11, 1973	0.50
May 18, 1973	0.53
May 25, 1973	0.55
Jun 1, 1973	0.58
Jun 8, 1973	0.60
Jun 15, 1973	0.62
Jun 22, 1973	0.64
Jun 29, 1973	0.66
Jul 6, 1973	0.67
Jul 13, 1973	0.69
Jul 20, 1973	0.70
Jul 27, 1973	0.72
Aug 3, 1973	0.73
Aug 10, 1973	0.74
Aug 17, 1973	0.75
Aug 24, 1973	0.76
Aug 31, 1973	0.77
Sep 7, 1973	0.78
Sep 14, 1973	0.78
Sep 21, 1973	0.79
Sep 28, 1973	0.80
Oct 5, 1973	0.80
Oct 12, 1973	0.81
Oct 19, 1973	0.82
Oct 26, 1973	0.82
Nov 2, 1973	0.83
Nov 9, 1973	0.84
Nov 16, 1973	0.84
Nov 23, 1973	0.85
Nov 30, 1973	0.85
Dec 7, 1973	0.86
Dec 14, 1973	0.86
Dec 21, 1973	0.87
Dec 28, 1973	0.87
Jan 4, 1974	0.87
Jan 11, 1974	0.87
Jan 18, 1974	0.87
Jan 25, 1974	0.87
Feb 1, 1974	0.86
Feb 8, 1974	0.86
Feb 15, 1974	0.85
Feb 22, 1974	0.84
Mar 1, 1974	0.83
Mar 8, 1974	0.82
Mar 15, 1974	0.80
Mar 22, 1974	0.78
Mar 29, 1974	0.77
Apr 5, 1974	0.75
Apr 12, 1974	0.73
Apr 19, 1974	0.70
Apr 26, 1974	0.68
May 3, 1974	0.66
May 10, 1974	0.64
May 17, 1974	0.62
May 24, 1974	0.60
May 31, 1974	0.58
Jun 7, 1974	0.56
Jun 14, 1974	0.54
Jun 21, 1974	0.52
Jun 28, 1974	0.50
Jul 5, 1974	0.49
Jul 12, 1974	0.47
Jul 19, 1974	0.46
Jul 26, 1974	0.45
Aug 2, 1974	0.44
Aug 9, 1974	0.43
Aug 16, 1974	0.42
Aug 23, 1974	0.41
Aug 30, 1974	0.41
Sep 6, 1974	0.40
Sep 13, 1974	0.40
Sep 20, 1974	0.39
Sep 27, 1974	0.39
Oct 4, 1974	0.38
Oct 11, 1974	0.37
Oct 18, 1974	0.36
Oct 25, 1974	0.35
Nov 1, 1974	0.33
Nov 8, 1974	0.31
Nov 15, 1974	0.29
Nov 22, 1974	0.27
Nov 29, 1974	0.24
Dec 6, 1974	0.21
Dec 13, 1974	0.17
Dec 20, 1974	0.14
Dec 27, 1974	0.10
Jan 3, 1975	0.06
Jan 10, 1975	0.01
Jan 17, 1975	-0.03
Jan 24, 1975	-0.07
Jan 31, 1975	-0.12
Feb 7, 1975	-0.16
Feb 14, 1975	-0.21
Feb 21, 1975	-0.26
Feb 28, 1975	-0.30
Mar 7, 1975	-0.34
Mar 14, 1975	-0.39
Mar 21, 1975	-0.43
Mar 28, 1975	-0.47
Apr 4, 1975	-0.52
Apr 11, 1975	-0.56
Apr 18, 1975	-0.60
Apr 25, 1975	-0.63
May 2, 1975	-0.67
May 9, 1975	-0.71
May 16, 1975	-0.74
May 23, 1975	-0.77
May 30, 1975	-0.81
Jun 6, 1975	-0.84
Jun 13, 1975	-0.87
Jun 20, 1975	-0.90
Jun 27, 1975	-0.92
Jul 4, 1975	-0.95
Jul 11, 1975	-0.97
Jul 18, 1975	-1.00
Jul 25, 1975	-1.02
Aug 1, 1975	-1.04
Aug 8, 1975	-1.06
Aug 15, 1975	-1.07
Aug 22, 1975	-1.09
Aug 29, 1975	-1.10
Sep 5, 1975	-1.11
Sep 12, 1975	-1.12
Sep 19, 1975	-1.13
Sep 26, 1975	-1.14
Oct 3, 1975	-1.15
Oct 10, 1975	-1.16
Oct 17, 1975	-1.17
Oct 24, 1975	-1.17
Oct 31, 1975	-1.18
Nov 7, 1975	-1.19
Nov 14, 1975	-1.19
Nov 21, 1975	-1.20
Nov 28, 1975	-1.21
Dec 5, 1975	-1.21
Dec 12, 1975	-1.22
Dec 19, 1975	-1.22
Dec 26, 1975	-1.23
Jan 2, 1976	-1.23
Jan 9, 1976	-1.24
Jan 16, 1976	-1.24
Jan 23, 1976	-1.24
Jan 30, 1976	-1.24
Feb 6, 1976	-1.24
Feb 13, 1976	-1.23
Feb 20, 1976	-1.23
Feb 27, 1976	-1.22
Mar 5, 1976	-1.22
Mar 12, 1976	-1.21
Mar 19, 1976	-1.20
Mar 26, 1976	-1.18
Apr 2, 1976	-1.17
Apr 9, 1976	-1.15
Apr 16, 1976	-1.14
Apr 23, 1976	-1.12
Apr 30, 1976	-1.11
May 7, 1976	-1.09
May 14, 1976	-1.07
May 21, 1976	-1.06
May 28, 1976	-1.04
Jun 4, 1976	-1.03
Jun 11, 1976	-1.01
Jun 18, 1976	-1.00
Jun 25, 1976	-0.99
Jul 2, 1976	-0.97
Jul 9, 1976	-0.96
Jul 16, 1976	-0.95
Jul 23, 1976	-0.95
Jul 30, 1976	-0.94
Aug 6, 1976	-0.93
Aug 13, 1976	-0.93
Aug 20, 1976	-0.92
Aug 27, 1976	-0.92
Sep 3, 1976	-0.92
Sep 10, 1976	-0.92
Sep 17, 1976	-0.92
Sep 24, 1976	-0.92
Oct 1, 1976	-0.92
Oct 8, 1976	-0.92
Oct 15, 1976	-0.92
Oct 22, 1976	-0.91
Oct 29, 1976	-0.91
Nov 5, 1976	-0.91
Nov 12, 1976	-0.90
Nov 19, 1976	-0.90
Nov 26, 1976	-0.89
Dec 3, 1976	-0.88
Dec 10, 1976	-0.87
Dec 17, 1976	-0.86
Dec 24, 1976	-0.85
Dec 31, 1976	-0.84
Jan 7, 1977	-0.83
Jan 14, 1977	-0.81
Jan 21, 1977	-0.80
Jan 28, 1977	-0.79
Feb 4, 1977	-0.77
Feb 11, 1977	-0.76
Feb 18, 1977	-0.75
Feb 25, 1977	-0.73
Mar 4, 1977	-0.72
Mar 11, 1977	-0.71
Mar 18, 1977	-0.69
Mar 25, 1977	-0.68
Apr 1, 1977	-0.67
Apr 8, 1977	-0.65
Apr 15, 1977	-0.64
Apr 22, 1977	-0.63
Apr 29, 1977	-0.61
May 6, 1977	-0.60
May 13, 1977	-0.58
May 20, 1977	-0.56
May 27, 1977	-0.55
Jun 3, 1977	-0.53
Jun 10, 1977	-0.51
Jun 17, 1977	-0.49
Jun 24, 1977	-0.47
Jul 1, 1977	-0.44
Jul 8, 1977	-0.42
Jul 15, 1977	-0.40
Jul 22, 1977	-0.38
Jul 29, 1977	-0.35
Aug 5, 1977	-0.33
Aug 12, 1977	-0.31
Aug 19, 1977	-0.28
Aug 26, 1977	-0.26
Sep 2, 1977	-0.24
Sep 9, 1977	-0.21
Sep 16, 1977	-0.19
Sep 23, 1977	-0.17
Sep 30, 1977	-0.14
Oct 7, 1977	-0.12
Oct 14, 1977	-0.10
Oct 21, 1977	-0.08
Oct 28, 1977	-0.05
Nov 4, 1977	-0.03
Nov 11, 1977	-0.01
Nov 18, 1977	0.01
Nov 25, 1977	0.03
Dec 2, 1977	0.05
Dec 9, 1977	0.07
Dec 16, 1977	0.09
Dec 23, 1977	0.10
Dec 30, 1977	0.12
Jan 6, 1978	0.13
Jan 13, 1978	0.14
Jan 20, 1978	0.15
Jan 27, 1978	0.16
Feb 3, 1978	0.17
Feb 10, 1978	0.18
Feb 17, 1978	0.18
Feb 24, 1978	0.18
Mar 3, 1978	0.18
Mar 10, 1978	0.18
Mar 17, 1978	0.18
Mar 24, 1978	0.18
Mar 31, 1978	0.18
Apr 7, 1978	0.18
Apr 14, 1978	0.18
Apr 21, 1978	0.19
Apr 28, 1978	0.19
May 5, 1978	0.20
May 12, 1978	0.21
May 19, 1978	0.22
May 26, 1978	0.23
Jun 2, 1978	0.25
Jun 9, 1978	0.27
Jun 16, 1978	0.30
Jun 23, 1978	0.32
Jun 30, 1978	0.35
Jul 7, 1978	0.38
Jul 14, 1978	0.40
Jul 21, 1978	0.43
Jul 28, 1978	0.46
Aug 4, 1978	0.49
Aug 11, 1978	0.52
Aug 18, 1978	0.55
Aug 25, 1978	0.58
Sep 1, 1978	0.60
Sep 8, 1978	0.63
Sep 15, 1978	0.65
Sep 22, 1978	0.67
Sep 29, 1978	0.70
Oct 6, 1978	0.72
Oct 13, 1978	0.74
Oct 20, 1978	0.76
Oct 27, 1978	0.78
Nov 3, 1978	0.80
Nov 10, 1978	0.82
Nov 17, 1978	0.84
Nov 24, 1978	0.86
Dec 1, 1978	0.88
Dec 8, 1978	0.90
Dec 15, 1978	0.92
Dec 22, 1978	0.94
Dec 29, 1978	0.97
Jan 5, 1979	0.99
Jan 12, 1979	1.01
Jan 19, 1979	1.03
Jan 26, 1979	1.05
Feb 2, 1979	1.07
Feb 9, 1979	1.09
Feb 16, 1979	1.11
Feb 23, 1979	1.13
Mar 2, 1979	1.15
Mar 9, 1979	1.16
Mar 16, 1979	1.18
Mar 23, 1979	1.19
Mar 30, 1979	1.21
Apr 6, 1979	1.22
Apr 13, 1979	1.23
Apr 20, 1979	1.24
Apr 27, 1979	1.25
May 4, 1979	1.26
May 11, 1979	1.27
May 18, 1979	1.28
May 25, 1979	1.28
Jun 1, 1979	1.29
Jun 8, 1979	1.29
Jun 15, 1979	1.30
Jun 22, 1979	1.30
Jun 29, 1979	1.31
Jul 6, 1979	1.31
Jul 13, 1979	1.32
Jul 20, 1979	1.33
Jul 27, 1979	1.33
Aug 3, 1979	1.34
Aug 10, 1979	1.35
Aug 17, 1979	1.36
Aug 24, 1979	1.37
Aug 31, 1979	1.38
Sep 7, 1979	1.39
Sep 14, 1979	1.40
Sep 21, 1979	1.41
Sep 28, 1979	1.42
Oct 5, 1979	1.43
Oct 12, 1979	1.44
Oct 19, 1979	1.45
Oct 26, 1979	1.46
Nov 2, 1979	1.47
Nov 9, 1979	1.48
Nov 16, 1979	1.49
Nov 23, 1979	1.49
Nov 30, 1979	1.50
Dec 7, 1979	1.51
Dec 14, 1979	1.51
Dec 21, 1979	1.52
Dec 28, 1979	1.52
Jan 4, 1980	1.53
Jan 11, 1980	1.54
Jan 18, 1980	1.54
Jan 25, 1980	1.55
Feb 1, 1980	1.56
Feb 8, 1980	1.57
Feb 15, 1980	1.57
Feb 22, 1980	1.58
Feb 29, 1980	1.59
Mar 7, 1980	1.60
Mar 14, 1980	1.60
Mar 21, 1980	1.61
Mar 28, 1980	1.61
Apr 4, 1980	1.62
Apr 11, 1980	1.61
Apr 18, 1980	1.61
Apr 25, 1980	1.60
May 2, 1980	1.59
May 9, 1980	1.58
May 16, 1980	1.56
May 23, 1980	1.53
May 30, 1980	1.50
Jun 6, 1980	1.47
Jun 13, 1980	1.43
Jun 20, 1980	1.39
Jun 27, 1980	1.35
Jul 4, 1980	1.30
Jul 11, 1980	1.26
Jul 18, 1980	1.21
Jul 25, 1980	1.17
Aug 1, 1980	1.12
Aug 8, 1980	1.08
Aug 15, 1980	1.04
Aug 22, 1980	1.00
Aug 29, 1980	0.96
Sep 5, 1980	0.93
Sep 12, 1980	0.89
Sep 19, 1980	0.86
Sep 26, 1980	0.84
Oct 3, 1980	0.81
Oct 10, 1980	0.79
Oct 17, 1980	0.77
Oct 24, 1980	0.75
Oct 31, 1980	0.74
Nov 7, 1980	0.73
Nov 14, 1980	0.72
Nov 21, 1980	0.71
Nov 28, 1980	0.71
Dec 5, 1980	0.71
Dec 12, 1980	0.71
Dec 19, 1980	0.71
Dec 26, 1980	0.72
Jan 2, 1981	0.72
Jan 9, 1981	0.73
Jan 16, 1981	0.74
Jan 23, 1981	0.75
Jan 30, 1981	0.76
Feb 6, 1981	0.77
Feb 13, 1981	0.79
Feb 20, 1981	0.80
Feb 27, 1981	0.82
Mar 6, 1981	0.83
Mar 13, 1981	0.85
Mar 20, 1981	0.86
Mar 27, 1981	0.88
Apr 3, 1981	0.89
Apr 10, 1981	0.90
Apr 17, 1981	0.92
Apr 24, 1981	0.93
May 1, 1981	0.93
May 8, 1981	0.94
May 15, 1981	0.94
May 22, 1981	0.95
May 29, 1981	0.95
Jun 5, 1981	0.94
Jun 12, 1981	0.94
Jun 19, 1981	0.94
Jun 26, 1981	0.93
Jul 3, 1981	0.93
Jul 10, 1981	0.92
Jul 17, 1981	0.92
Jul 24, 1981	0.92
Jul 31, 1981	0.91
Aug 7, 1981	0.91
Aug 14, 1981	0.91
Aug 21, 1981	0.91
Aug 28, 1981	0.91
Sep 4, 1981	0.92
Sep 11, 1981	0.92
Sep 18, 1981	0.93
Sep 25, 1981	0.93
Oct 2, 1981	0.94
Oct 9, 1981	0.94
Oct 16, 1981	0.94
Oct 23, 1981	0.94
Oct 30, 1981	0.94
Nov 6, 1981	0.94
Nov 13, 1981	0.94
Nov 20, 1981	0.93
Nov 27, 1981	0.92
Dec 4, 1981	0.90
Dec 11, 1981	0.89
Dec 18, 1981	0.87
Dec 25, 1981	0.84
Jan 1, 1982	0.82
Jan 8, 1982	0.79
Jan 15, 1982	0.76
Jan 22, 1982	0.73
Jan 29, 1982	0.70
Feb 5, 1982	0.67
Feb 12, 1982	0.64
Feb 19, 1982	0.61
Feb 26, 1982	0.58
Mar 5, 1982	0.55
Mar 12, 1982	0.52
Mar 19, 1982	0.49
Mar 26, 1982	0.46
Apr 2, 1982	0.43
Apr 9, 1982	0.40
Apr 16, 1982	0.37
Apr 23, 1982	0.34
Apr 30, 1982	0.32
May 7, 1982	0.29
May 14, 1982	0.26
May 21, 1982	0.23
May 28, 1982	0.21
Jun 4, 1982	0.18
Jun 11, 1982	0.15
Jun 18, 1982	0.13
Jun 25, 1982	0.10
Jul 2, 1982	0.07
Jul 9, 1982	0.04
Jul 16, 1982	0.01
Jul 23, 1982	-0.02
Jul 30, 1982	-0.05
Aug 6, 1982	-0.08
Aug 13, 1982	-0.11
Aug 20, 1982	-0.14
Aug 27, 1982	-0.17
Sep 3, 1982	-0.20
Sep 10, 1982	-0.24
Sep 17, 1982	-0.27
Sep 24, 1982	-0.30
Oct 1, 1982	-0.33
Oct 8, 1982	-0.37
Oct 15, 1982	-0.40
Oct 22, 1982	-0.43
Oct 29, 1982	-0.46
Nov 5, 1982	-0.49
Nov 12, 1982	-0.51
Nov 19, 1982	-0.54
Nov 26, 1982	-0.57
Dec 3, 1982	-0.59
Dec 10, 1982	-0.61
Dec 17, 1982	-0.64
Dec 24, 1982	-0.66
Dec 31, 1982	-0.68
Jan 7, 1983	-0.70
Jan 14, 1983	-0.72
Jan 21, 1983	-0.73
Jan 28, 1983	-0.75
Feb 4, 1983	-0.77
Feb 11, 1983	-0.78
Feb 18, 1983	-0.79
Feb 25, 1983	-0.81
Mar 4, 1983	-0.82
Mar 11, 1983	-0.83
Mar 18, 1983	-0.84
Mar 25, 1983	-0.85
Apr 1, 1983	-0.86
Apr 8, 1983	-0.87
Apr 15, 1983	-0.87
Apr 22, 1983	-0.88
Apr 29, 1983	-0.88
May 6, 1983	-0.88
May 13, 1983	-0.88
May 20, 1983	-0.88
May 27, 1983	-0.88
Jun 3, 1983	-0.87
Jun 10, 1983	-0.87
Jun 17, 1983	-0.86
Jun 24, 1983	-0.85
Jul 1, 1983	-0.84
Jul 8, 1983	-0.83
Jul 15, 1983	-0.81
Jul 22, 1983	-0.80
Jul 29, 1983	-0.78
Aug 5, 1983	-0.77
Aug 12, 1983	-0.75
Aug 19, 1983	-0.74
Aug 26, 1983	-0.72
Sep 2, 1983	-0.70
Sep 9, 1983	-0.68
Sep 16, 1983	-0.66
Sep 23, 1983	-0.64
Sep 30, 1983	-0.62
Oct 7, 1983	-0.60
Oct 14, 1983	-0.58
Oct 21, 1983	-0.56
Oct 28, 1983	-0.54
Nov 4, 1983	-0.52
Nov 11, 1983	-0.50
Nov 18, 1983	-0.47
Nov 25, 1983	-0.45
Dec 2, 1983	-0.43
Dec 9, 1983	-0.40
Dec 16, 1983	-0.38
Dec 23, 1983	-0.35
Dec 30, 1983	-0.33
Jan 6, 1984	-0.30
Jan 13, 1984	-0.28
Jan 20, 1984	-0.25
Jan 27, 1984	-0.23
Feb 3, 1984	-0.20
Feb 10, 1984	-0.18
Feb 17, 1984	-0.15
Feb 24, 1984	-0.13
Mar 2, 1984	-0.10
Mar 9, 1984	-0.08
Mar 16, 1984	-0.05
Mar 23, 1984	-0.03
Mar 30, 1984	0.00
Apr 6, 1984	0.02
Apr 13, 1984	0.05
Apr 20, 1984	0.07
Apr 27, 1984	0.10
May 4, 1984	0.12
May 11, 1984	0.14
May 18, 1984	0.17
May 25, 1984	0.19
Jun 1, 1984	0.21
Jun 8, 1984	0.24
Jun 15, 1984	0.26
Jun 22, 1984	0.28
Jun 29, 1984	0.30
Jul 6, 1984	0.32
Jul 13, 1984	0.34
Jul 20, 1984	0.36
Jul 27, 1984	0.38
Aug 3, 1984	0.40
Aug 10, 1984	0.42
Aug 17, 1984	0.43
Aug 24, 1984	0.45
Aug 31, 1984	0.46
Sep 7, 1984	0.48
Sep 14, 1984	0.49
Sep 21, 1984	0.50
Sep 28, 1984	0.51
Oct 5, 1984	0.52
Oct 12, 1984	0.53
Oct 19, 1984	0.54
Oct 26, 1984	0.55
Nov 2, 1984	0.56
Nov 9, 1984	0.57
Nov 16, 1984	0.58
Nov 23, 1984	0.59
Nov 30, 1984	0.60
Dec 7, 1984	0.61
Dec 14, 1984	0.62
Dec 21, 1984	0.63
Dec 28, 1984	0.64
Jan 4, 1985	0.65
Jan 11, 1985	0.66
Jan 18, 1985	0.67
Jan 25, 1985	0.68
Feb 1, 1985	0.68
Feb 8, 1985	0.69
Feb 15, 1985	0.70
Feb 22, 1985	0.71
Mar 1, 1985	0.71
Mar 8, 1985	0.72
Mar 15, 1985	0.72
Mar 22, 1985	0.73
Mar 29, 1985	0.73
Apr 5, 1985	0.73
Apr 12, 1985	0.74
Apr 19, 1985	0.74
Apr 26, 1985	0.74
May 3, 1985	0.74
May 10, 1985	0.74
May 17, 1985	0.74
May 24, 1985	0.74
May 31, 1985	0.73
Jun 7, 1985	0.73
Jun 14, 1985	0.73
Jun 21, 1985	0.73
Jun 28, 1985	0.73
Jul 5, 1985	0.73
Jul 12, 1985	0.73
Jul 19, 1985	0.73
Jul 26, 1985	0.73
Aug 2, 1985	0.74
Aug 9, 1985	0.74
Aug 16, 1985	0.75
Aug 23, 1985	0.75
Aug 30, 1985	0.76
Sep 6, 1985	0.77
Sep 13, 1985	0.78
Sep 20, 1985	0.79
Sep 27, 1985	0.80
Oct 4, 1985	0.81
Oct 11, 1985	0.82
Oct 18, 1985	0.83
Oct 25, 1985	0.84
Nov 1, 1985	0.85
Nov 8, 1985	0.85
Nov 15, 1985	0.86
Nov 22, 1985	0.86
Nov 29, 1985	0.86
Dec 6, 1985	0.86
Dec 13, 1985	0.86
Dec 20, 1985	0.85
Dec 27, 1985	0.85
Jan 3, 1986	0.84
Jan 10, 1986	0.83
Jan 17, 1986	0.83
Jan 24, 1986	0.82
Jan 31, 1986	0.81
Feb 7, 1986	0.80
Feb 14, 1986	0.80
Feb 21, 1986	0.79
Feb 28, 1986	0.78
Mar 7, 1986	0.78
Mar 14, 1986	0.77
Mar 21, 1986	0.77
Mar 28, 1986	0.76
Apr 4, 1986	0.76
Apr 11, 1986	0.75
Apr 18, 1986	0.75
Apr 25, 1986	0.75
May 2, 1986	0.74
May 9, 1986	0.74
May 16, 1986	0.74
May 23, 1986	0.74
May 30, 1986	0.74
Jun 6, 1986	0.74
Jun 13, 1986	0.74
Jun 20, 1986	0.74
Jun 27, 1986	0.74
Jul 4, 1986	0.75
Jul 11, 1986	0.75
Jul 18, 1986	0.76
Jul 25, 1986	0.76
Aug 1, 1986	0.77
Aug 8, 1986	0.78
Aug 15, 1986	0.79
Aug 22, 1986	0.80
Aug 29, 1986	0.81
Sep 5, 1986	0.82
Sep 12, 1986	0.84
Sep 19, 1986	0.85
Sep 26, 1986	0.87
Oct 3, 1986	0.89
Oct 10, 1986	0.90
Oct 17, 1986	0.92
Oct 24, 1986	0.94
Oct 31, 1986	0.95
Nov 7, 1986	0.97
Nov 14, 1986	0.98
Nov 21, 1986	0.99
Nov 28, 1986	1.00
Dec 5, 1986	1.01
Dec 12, 1986	1.02
Dec 19, 1986	1.03
Dec 26, 1986	1.04
Jan 2, 1987	1.04
Jan 9, 1987	1.04
Jan 16, 1987	1.04
Jan 23, 1987	1.04
Jan 30, 1987	1.04
Feb 6, 1987	1.04
Feb 13, 1987	1.03
Feb 20, 1987	1.03
Feb 27, 1987	1.02
Mar 6, 1987	1.01
Mar 13, 1987	1.00
Mar 20, 1987	0.99
Mar 27, 1987	0.98
Apr 3, 1987	0.97
Apr 10, 1987	0.96
Apr 17, 1987	0.94
Apr 24, 1987	0.93
May 1, 1987	0.92
May 8, 1987	0.91
May 15, 1987	0.90
May 22, 1987	0.90
May 29, 1987	0.89
Jun 5, 1987	0.88
Jun 12, 1987	0.88
Jun 19, 1987	0.88
Jun 26, 1987	0.87
Jul 3, 1987	0.87
Jul 10, 1987	0.87
Jul 17, 1987	0.87
Jul 24, 1987	0.87
Jul 31, 1987	0.88
Aug 7, 1987	0.88
Aug 14, 1987	0.88
Aug 21, 1987	0.89
Aug 28, 1987	0.89
Sep 4, 1987	0.89
Sep 11, 1987	0.90
Sep 18, 1987	0.90
Sep 25, 1987	0.91
Oct 2, 1987	0.92
Oct 9, 1987	0.92
Oct 16, 1987	0.93
Oct 23, 1987	0.93
Oct 30, 1987	0.93
Nov 6, 1987	0.94
Nov 13, 1987	0.94
Nov 20, 1987	0.94
Nov 27, 1987	0.94
Dec 4, 1987	0.94
Dec 11, 1987	0.95
Dec 18, 1987	0.95
Dec 25, 1987	0.94
Jan 1, 1988	0.94
Jan 8, 1988	0.94
Jan 15, 1988	0.94
Jan 22, 1988	0.94
Jan 29, 1988	0.94
Feb 5, 1988	0.94
Feb 12, 1988	0.94
Feb 19, 1988	0.94
Feb 26, 1988	0.94
Mar 4, 1988	0.94
Mar 11, 1988	0.94
Mar 18, 1988	0.94
Mar 25, 1988	0.94
Apr 1, 1988	0.94
Apr 8, 1988	0.94
Apr 15, 1988	0.94
Apr 22, 1988	0.95
Apr 29, 1988	0.95
May 6, 1988	0.95
May 13, 1988	0.95
May 20, 1988	0.96
May 27, 1988	0.96
Jun 3, 1988	0.96
Jun 10, 1988	0.96
Jun 17, 1988	0.97
Jun 24, 1988	0.97
Jul 1, 1988	0.97
Jul 8, 1988	0.97
Jul 15, 1988	0.97
Jul 22, 1988	0.97
Jul 29, 1988	0.97
Aug 5, 1988	0.97
Aug 12, 1988	0.97
Aug 19, 1988	0.97
Aug 26, 1988	0.97
Sep 2, 1988	0.96
Sep 9, 1988	0.96
Sep 16, 1988	0.96
Sep 23, 1988	0.95
Sep 30, 1988	0.95
Oct 7, 1988	0.95
Oct 14, 1988	0.94
Oct 21, 1988	0.94
Oct 28, 1988	0.94
Nov 4, 1988	0.93
Nov 11, 1988	0.93
Nov 18, 1988	0.93
Nov 25, 1988	0.93
Dec 2, 1988	0.93
Dec 9, 1988	0.94
Dec 16, 1988	0.94
Dec 23, 1988	0.94
Dec 30, 1988	0.95
Jan 6, 1989	0.95
Jan 13, 1989	0.95
Jan 20, 1989	0.96
Jan 27, 1989	0.96
Feb 3, 1989	0.97
Feb 10, 1989	0.97
Feb 17, 1989	0.97
Feb 24, 1989	0.98
Mar 3, 1989	0.98
Mar 10, 1989	0.98
Mar 17, 1989	0.98
Mar 24, 1989	0.98
Mar 31, 1989	0.98
Apr 7, 1989	0.98
Apr 14, 1989	0.98
Apr 21, 1989	0.98
Apr 28, 1989	0.98
May 5, 1989	0.98
May 12, 1989	0.97
May 19, 1989	0.97
May 26, 1989	0.97
Jun 2, 1989	0.97
Jun 9, 1989	0.96
Jun 16, 1989	0.96
Jun 23, 1989	0.96
Jun 30, 1989	0.96
Jul 7, 1989	0.96
Jul 14, 1989	0.96
Jul 21, 1989	0.96
Jul 28, 1989	0.96
Aug 4, 1989	0.96
Aug 11, 1989	0.96
Aug 18, 1989	0.96
Aug 25, 1989	0.97
Sep 1, 1989	0.97
Sep 8, 1989	0.98
Sep 15, 1989	0.98
Sep 22, 1989	0.98
Sep 29, 1989	0.99
Oct 6, 1989	0.99
Oct 13, 1989	1.00
Oct 20, 1989	1.00
Oct 27, 1989	1.00
Nov 3, 1989	1.00
Nov 10, 1989	0.99
Nov 17, 1989	0.99
Nov 24, 1989	0.98
Dec 1, 1989	0.98
Dec 8, 1989	0.97
Dec 15, 1989	0.96
Dec 22, 1989	0.95
Dec 29, 1989	0.94
Jan 5, 1990	0.93
Jan 12, 1990	0.92
Jan 19, 1990	0.91
Jan 26, 1990	0.90
Feb 2, 1990	0.89
Feb 9, 1990	0.88
Feb 16, 1990	0.88
Feb 23, 1990	0.87
Mar 2, 1990	0.87
Mar 9, 1990	0.87
Mar 16, 1990	0.87
Mar 23, 1990	0.87
Mar 30, 1990	0.88
Apr 6, 1990	0.88
Apr 13, 1990	0.88
Apr 20, 1990	0.88
Apr 27, 1990	0.89
May 4, 1990	0.89
May 11, 1990	0.89
May 18, 1990	0.89
May 25, 1990	0.89
Jun 1, 1990	0.89
Jun 8, 1990	0.89
Jun 15, 1990	0.89
Jun 22, 1990	0.88
Jun 29, 1990	0.87
Jul 6, 1990	0.87
Jul 13, 1990	0.86
Jul 20, 1990	0.85
Jul 27, 1990	0.84
Aug 3, 1990	0.83
Aug 10, 1990	0.82
Aug 17, 1990	0.81
Aug 24, 1990	0.80
Aug 31, 1990	0.79
Sep 7, 1990	0.77
Sep 14, 1990	0.76
Sep 21, 1990	0.75
Sep 28, 1990	0.74
Oct 5, 1990	0.72
Oct 12, 1990	0.71
Oct 19, 1990	0.69
Oct 26, 1990	0.68
Nov 2, 1990	0.66
Nov 9, 1990	0.65
Nov 16, 1990	0.63
Nov 23, 1990	0.61
Nov 30, 1990	0.59
Dec 7, 1990	0.57
Dec 14, 1990	0.55
Dec 21, 1990	0.52
Dec 28, 1990	0.50
Jan 4, 1991	0.48
Jan 11, 1991	0.45
Jan 18, 1991	0.42
Jan 25, 1991	0.39
Feb 1, 1991	0.37
Feb 8, 1991	0.34
Feb 15, 1991	0.30
Feb 22, 1991	0.27
Mar 1, 1991	0.24
Mar 8, 1991	0.21
Mar 15, 1991	0.17
Mar 22, 1991	0.14
Mar 29, 1991	0.10
Apr 5, 1991	0.07
Apr 12, 1991	0.03
Apr 19, 1991	-0.01
Apr 26, 1991	-0.04
May 3, 1991	-0.08
May 10, 1991	-0.11
May 17, 1991	-0.14
May 24, 1991	-0.18
May 31, 1991	-0.21
Jun 7, 1991	-0.24
Jun 14, 1991	-0.27
Jun 21, 1991	-0.30
Jun 28, 1991	-0.33
Jul 5, 1991	-0.36
Jul 12, 1991	-0.38
Jul 19, 1991	-0.41
Jul 26, 1991	-0.43
Aug 2, 1991	-0.45
Aug 9, 1991	-0.47
Aug 16, 1991	-0.49
Aug 23, 1991	-0.51
Aug 30, 1991	-0.53
Sep 6, 1991	-0.55
Sep 13, 1991	-0.56
Sep 20, 1991	-0.57
Sep 27, 1991	-0.59
Oct 4, 1991	-0.60
Oct 11, 1991	-0.62
Oct 18, 1991	-0.63
Oct 25, 1991	-0.65
Nov 1, 1991	-0.66
Nov 8, 1991	-0.68
Nov 15, 1991	-0.70
Nov 22, 1991	-0.71
Nov 29, 1991	-0.73
Dec 6, 1991	-0.75
Dec 13, 1991	-0.77
Dec 20, 1991	-0.79
Dec 27, 1991	-0.81
Jan 3, 1992	-0.84
Jan 10, 1992	-0.86
Jan 17, 1992	-0.88
Jan 24, 1992	-0.90
Jan 31, 1992	-0.92
Feb 7, 1992	-0.94
Feb 14, 1992	-0.96
Feb 21, 1992	-0.97
Feb 28, 1992	-0.99
Mar 6, 1992	-1.00
Mar 13, 1992	-1.01
Mar 20, 1992	-1.03
Mar 27, 1992	-1.04
Apr 3, 1992	-1.05
Apr 10, 1992	-1.06
Apr 17, 1992	-1.06
Apr 24, 1992	-1.07
May 1, 1992	-1.08
May 8, 1992	-1.08
May 15, 1992	-1.08
May 22, 1992	-1.09
May 29, 1992	-1.09
Jun 5, 1992	-1.09
Jun 12, 1992	-1.10
Jun 19, 1992	-1.10
Jun 26, 1992	-1.10
Jul 3, 1992	-1.11
Jul 10, 1992	-1.11
Jul 17, 1992	-1.11
Jul 24, 1992	-1.11
Jul 31, 1992	-1.12
Aug 7, 1992	-1.12
Aug 14, 1992	-1.13
Aug 21, 1992	-1.13
Aug 28, 1992	-1.13
Sep 4, 1992	-1.14
Sep 11, 1992	-1.14
Sep 18, 1992	-1.15
Sep 25, 1992	-1.15
Oct 2, 1992	-1.16
Oct 9, 1992	-1.16
Oct 16, 1992	-1.16
Oct 23, 1992	-1.17
Oct 30, 1992	-1.17
Nov 6, 1992	-1.17
Nov 13, 1992	-1.17
Nov 20, 1992	-1.17
Nov 27, 1992	-1.17
Dec 4, 1992	-1.16
Dec 11, 1992	-1.16
Dec 18, 1992	-1.16
Dec 25, 1992	-1.15
Jan 1, 1993	-1.15
Jan 8, 1993	-1.14
Jan 15, 1993	-1.14
Jan 22, 1993	-1.13
Jan 29, 1993	-1.13
Feb 5, 1993	-1.12
Feb 12, 1993	-1.12
Feb 19, 1993	-1.11
Feb 26, 1993	-1.11
Mar 5, 1993	-1.11
Mar 12, 1993	-1.10
Mar 19, 1993	-1.10
Mar 26, 1993	-1.10
Apr 2, 1993	-1.10
Apr 9, 1993	-1.09
Apr 16, 1993	-1.09
Apr 23, 1993	-1.09
Apr 30, 1993	-1.09
May 7, 1993	-1.09
May 14, 1993	-1.08
May 21, 1993	-1.08
May 28, 1993	-1.08
Jun 4, 1993	-1.07
Jun 11, 1993	-1.07
Jun 18, 1993	-1.07
Jun 25, 1993	-1.06
Jul 2, 1993	-1.06
Jul 9, 1993	-1.05
Jul 16, 1993	-1.05
Jul 23, 1993	-1.04
Jul 30, 1993	-1.04
Aug 6, 1993	-1.04
Aug 13, 1993	-1.03
Aug 20, 1993	-1.03
Aug 27, 1993	-1.02
Sep 3, 1993	-1.02
Sep 10, 1993	-1.01
Sep 17, 1993	-1.01
Sep 24, 1993	-1.00
Oct 1, 1993	-1.00
Oct 8, 1993	-0.99
Oct 15, 1993	-0.99
Oct 22, 1993	-0.98
Oct 29, 1993	-0.98
Nov 5, 1993	-0.97
Nov 12, 1993	-0.96
Nov 19, 1993	-0.95
Nov 26, 1993	-0.94
Dec 3, 1993	-0.93
Dec 10, 1993	-0.92
Dec 17, 1993	-0.91
Dec 24, 1993	-0.90
Dec 31, 1993	-0.89
Jan 7, 1994	-0.88
Jan 14, 1994	-0.87
Jan 21, 1994	-0.85
Jan 28, 1994	-0.84
Feb 4, 1994	-0.83
Feb 11, 1994	-0.82
Feb 18, 1994	-0.81
Feb 25, 1994	-0.79
Mar 4, 1994	-0.78
Mar 11, 1994	-0.77
Mar 18, 1994	-0.76
Mar 25, 1994	-0.74
Apr 1, 1994	-0.73
Apr 8, 1994	-0.72
Apr 15, 1994	-0.71
Apr 22, 1994	-0.69
Apr 29, 1994	-0.68
May 6, 1994	-0.67
May 13, 1994	-0.66
May 20, 1994	-0.64
May 27, 1994	-0.63
Jun 3, 1994	-0.61
Jun 10, 1994	-0.60
Jun 17, 1994	-0.59
Jun 24, 1994	-0.57
Jul 1, 1994	-0.56
Jul 8, 1994	-0.55
Jul 15, 1994	-0.53
Jul 22, 1994	-0.52
Jul 29, 1994	-0.51
Aug 5, 1994	-0.49
Aug 12, 1994	-0.48
Aug 19, 1994	-0.47
Aug 26, 1994	-0.46
Sep 2, 1994	-0.45
Sep 9, 1994	-0.44
Sep 16, 1994	-0.43
Sep 23, 1994	-0.42
Sep 30, 1994	-0.41
Oct 7, 1994	-0.40
Oct 14, 1994	-0.38
Oct 21, 1994	-0.37
Oct 28, 1994	-0.36
Nov 4, 1994	-0.35
Nov 11, 1994	-0.34
Nov 18, 1994	-0.33
Nov 25, 1994	-0.31
Dec 2, 1994	-0.30
Dec 9, 1994	-0.28
Dec 16, 1994	-0.27
Dec 23, 1994	-0.25
Dec 30, 1994	-0.24
Jan 6, 1995	-0.22
Jan 13, 1995	-0.21
Jan 20, 1995	-0.19
Jan 27, 1995	-0.18
Feb 3, 1995	-0.17
Feb 10, 1995	-0.15
Feb 17, 1995	-0.14
Feb 24, 1995	-0.13
Mar 3, 1995	-0.12
Mar 10, 1995	-0.12
Mar 17, 1995	-0.11
Mar 24, 1995	-0.10
Mar 31, 1995	-0.10
Apr 7, 1995	-0.10
Apr 14, 1995	-0.10
Apr 21, 1995	-0.10
Apr 28, 1995	-0.10
May 5, 1995	-0.10
May 12, 1995	-0.10
May 19, 1995	-0.11
May 26, 1995	-0.11
Jun 2, 1995	-0.12
Jun 9, 1995	-0.13
Jun 16, 1995	-0.13
Jun 23, 1995	-0.14
Jun 30, 1995	-0.15
Jul 7, 1995	-0.16
Jul 14, 1995	-0.16
Jul 21, 1995	-0.17
Jul 28, 1995	-0.18
Aug 4, 1995	-0.18
Aug 11, 1995	-0.19
Aug 18, 1995	-0.19
Aug 25, 1995	-0.19
Sep 1, 1995	-0.20
Sep 8, 1995	-0.20
Sep 15, 1995	-0.20
Sep 22, 1995	-0.20
Sep 29, 1995	-0.20
Oct 6, 1995	-0.20
Oct 13, 1995	-0.19
Oct 20, 1995	-0.19
Oct 27, 1995	-0.19
Nov 3, 1995	-0.18
Nov 10, 1995	-0.18
Nov 17, 1995	-0.18
Nov 24, 1995	-0.18
Dec 1, 1995	-0.17
Dec 8, 1995	-0.17
Dec 15, 1995	-0.17
Dec 22, 1995	-0.17
Dec 29, 1995	-0.17
Jan 5, 1996	-0.17
Jan 12, 1996	-0.16
Jan 19, 1996	-0.16
Jan 26, 1996	-0.17
Feb 2, 1996	-0.17
Feb 9, 1996	-0.17
Feb 16, 1996	-0.17
Feb 23, 1996	-0.17
Mar 1, 1996	-0.17
Mar 8, 1996	-0.18
Mar 15, 1996	-0.18
Mar 22, 1996	-0.18
Mar 29, 1996	-0.18
Apr 5, 1996	-0.18
Apr 12, 1996	-0.18
Apr 19, 1996	-0.18
Apr 26, 1996	-0.18
May 3, 1996	-0.18
May 10, 1996	-0.18
May 17, 1996	-0.18
May 24, 1996	-0.18
May 31, 1996	-0.17
Jun 7, 1996	-0.17
Jun 14, 1996	-0.16
Jun 21, 1996	-0.15
Jun 28, 1996	-0.15
Jul 5, 1996	-0.14
Jul 12, 1996	-0.13
Jul 19, 1996	-0.13
Jul 26, 1996	-0.12
Aug 2, 1996	-0.11
Aug 9, 1996	-0.10
Aug 16, 1996	-0.10
Aug 23, 1996	-0.09
Aug 30, 1996	-0.09
Sep 6, 1996	-0.08
Sep 13, 1996	-0.08
Sep 20, 1996	-0.07
Sep 27, 1996	-0.07
Oct 4, 1996	-0.07
Oct 11, 1996	-0.06
Oct 18, 1996	-0.06
Oct 25, 1996	-0.06
Nov 1, 1996	-0.06
Nov 8, 1996	-0.06
Nov 15, 1996	-0.05
Nov 22, 1996	-0.05
Nov 29, 1996	-0.05
Dec 6, 1996	-0.05
Dec 13, 1996	-0.04
Dec 20, 1996	-0.04
Dec 27, 1996	-0.04
Jan 3, 1997	-0.03
Jan 10, 1997	-0.03
Jan 17, 1997	-0.03
Jan 24, 1997	-0.02
Jan 31, 1997	-0.02
Feb 7, 1997	-0.01
Feb 14, 1997	-0.01
Feb 21, 1997	0.00
Feb 28, 1997	0.01
Mar 7, 1997	0.01
Mar 14, 1997	0.02
Mar 21, 1997	0.03
Mar 28, 1997	0.03
Apr 4, 1997	0.04
Apr 11, 1997	0.05
Apr 18, 1997	0.05
Apr 25, 1997	0.06
May 2, 1997	0.06
May 9, 1997	0.06
May 16, 1997	0.07
May 23, 1997	0.07
May 30, 1997	0.07
Jun 6, 1997	0.07
Jun 13, 1997	0.08
Jun 20, 1997	0.08
Jun 27, 1997	0.08
Jul 4, 1997	0.08
Jul 11, 1997	0.08
Jul 18, 1997	0.08
Jul 25, 1997	0.08
Aug 1, 1997	0.08
Aug 8, 1997	0.08
Aug 15, 1997	0.08
Aug 22, 1997	0.08
Aug 29, 1997	0.08
Sep 5, 1997	0.08
Sep 12, 1997	0.09
Sep 19, 1997	0.09
Sep 26, 1997	0.09
Oct 3, 1997	0.10
Oct 10, 1997	0.10
Oct 17, 1997	0.11
Oct 24, 1997	0.11
Oct 31, 1997	0.12
Nov 7, 1997	0.12
Nov 14, 1997	0.13
Nov 21, 1997	0.14
Nov 28, 1997	0.14
Dec 5, 1997	0.15
Dec 12, 1997	0.16
Dec 19, 1997	0.16
Dec 26, 1997	0.17
Jan 2, 1998	0.18
Jan 9, 1998	0.18
Jan 16, 1998	0.19
Jan 23, 1998	0.20
Jan 30, 1998	0.20
Feb 6, 1998	0.20
Feb 13, 1998	0.21
Feb 20, 1998	0.21
Feb 27, 1998	0.21
Mar 6, 1998	0.21
Mar 13, 1998	0.21
Mar 20, 1998	0.21
Mar 27, 1998	0.21
Apr 3, 1998	0.21
Apr 10, 1998	0.21
Apr 17, 1998	0.21
Apr 24, 1998	0.20
May 1, 1998	0.20
May 8, 1998	0.20
May 15, 1998	0.20
May 22, 1998	0.20
May 29, 1998	0.20
Jun 5, 1998	0.20
Jun 12, 1998	0.20
Jun 19, 1998	0.20
Jun 26, 1998	0.20
Jul 3, 1998	0.20
Jul 10, 1998	0.20
Jul 17, 1998	0.20
Jul 24, 1998	0.20
Jul 31, 1998	0.20
Aug 7, 1998	0.20
Aug 14, 1998	0.20
Aug 21, 1998	0.20
Aug 28, 1998	0.20
Sep 4, 1998	0.21
Sep 11, 1998	0.21
Sep 18, 1998	0.21
Sep 25, 1998	0.21
Oct 2, 1998	0.22
Oct 9, 1998	0.22
Oct 16, 1998	0.23
Oct 23, 1998	0.23
Oct 30, 1998	0.24
Nov 6, 1998	0.25
Nov 13, 1998	0.26
Nov 20, 1998	0.27
Nov 27, 1998	0.28
Dec 4, 1998	0.29
Dec 11, 1998	0.30
Dec 18, 1998	0.31
Dec 25, 1998	0.32
Jan 1, 1999	0.34
Jan 8, 1999	0.35
Jan 15, 1999	0.36
Jan 22, 1999	0.37
Jan 29, 1999	0.38
Feb 5, 1999	0.39
Feb 12, 1999	0.39
Feb 19, 1999	0.40
Feb 26, 1999	0.40
Mar 5, 1999	0.41
Mar 12, 1999	0.41
Mar 19, 1999	0.41
Mar 26, 1999	0.41
Apr 2, 1999	0.41
Apr 9, 1999	0.41
Apr 16, 1999	0.41
Apr 23, 1999	0.41
Apr 30, 1999	0.41
May 7, 1999	0.41
May 14, 1999	0.41
May 21, 1999	0.41
May 28, 1999	0.41
Jun 4, 1999	0.42
Jun 11, 1999	0.42
Jun 18, 1999	0.43
Jun 25, 1999	0.44
Jul 2, 1999	0.44
Jul 9, 1999	0.45
Jul 16, 1999	0.46
Jul 23, 1999	0.47
Jul 30, 1999	0.48
Aug 6, 1999	0.49
Aug 13, 1999	0.49
Aug 20, 1999	0.50
Aug 27, 1999	0.51
Sep 3, 1999	0.52
Sep 10, 1999	0.52
Sep 17, 1999	0.53
Sep 24, 1999	0.53
Oct 1, 1999	0.54
Oct 8, 1999	0.54
Oct 15, 1999	0.54
Oct 22, 1999	0.54
Oct 29, 1999	0.55
Nov 5, 1999	0.55
Nov 12, 1999	0.55
Nov 19, 1999	0.55
Nov 26, 1999	0.55
Dec 3, 1999	0.55
Dec 10, 1999	0.55
Dec 17, 1999	0.56
Dec 24, 1999	0.56
Dec 31, 1999	0.56
Jan 7, 2000	0.57
Jan 14, 2000	0.57
Jan 21, 2000	0.57
Jan 28, 2000	0.58
Feb 4, 2000	0.59
Feb 11, 2000	0.59
Feb 18, 2000	0.60
Feb 25, 2000	0.61
Mar 3, 2000	0.62
Mar 10, 2000	0.63
Mar 17, 2000	0.64
Mar 24, 2000	0.66
Mar 31, 2000	0.67
Apr 7, 2000	0.68
Apr 14, 2000	0.69
Apr 21, 2000	0.70
Apr 28, 2000	0.71
May 5, 2000	0.72
May 12, 2000	0.73
May 19, 2000	0.74
May 26, 2000	0.75
Jun 2, 2000	0.76
Jun 9, 2000	0.76
Jun 16, 2000	0.77
Jun 23, 2000	0.77
Jun 30, 2000	0.78
Jul 7, 2000	0.78
Jul 14, 2000	0.78
Jul 21, 2000	0.78
Jul 28, 2000	0.78
Aug 4, 2000	0.79
Aug 11, 2000	0.79
Aug 18, 2000	0.79
Aug 25, 2000	0.78
Sep 1, 2000	0.78
Sep 8, 2000	0.78
Sep 15, 2000	0.78
Sep 22, 2000	0.78
Sep 29, 2000	0.78
Oct 6, 2000	0.78
Oct 13, 2000	0.77
Oct 20, 2000	0.77
Oct 27, 2000	0.77
Nov 3, 2000	0.77
Nov 10, 2000	0.76
Nov 17, 2000	0.76
Nov 24, 2000	0.76
Dec 1, 2000	0.75
Dec 8, 2000	0.75
Dec 15, 2000	0.75
Dec 22, 2000	0.75
Dec 29, 2000	0.74
Jan 5, 2001	0.74
Jan 12, 2001	0.74
Jan 19, 2001	0.74
Jan 26, 2001	0.73
Feb 2, 2001	0.73
Feb 9, 2001	0.73
Feb 16, 2001	0.73
Feb 23, 2001	0.73
Mar 2, 2001	0.73
Mar 9, 2001	0.72
Mar 16, 2001	0.72
Mar 23, 2001	0.72
Mar 30, 2001	0.72
Apr 6, 2001	0.72
Apr 13, 2001	0.72
Apr 20, 2001	0.72
Apr 27, 2001	0.72
May 4, 2001	0.72
May 11, 2001	0.72
May 18, 2001	0.71
May 25, 2001	0.71
Jun 1, 2001	0.71
Jun 8, 2001	0.70
Jun 15, 2001	0.70
Jun 22, 2001	0.69
Jun 29, 2001	0.69
Jul 6, 2001	0.68
Jul 13, 2001	0.67
Jul 20, 2001	0.67
Jul 27, 2001	0.66
Aug 3, 2001	0.65
Aug 10, 2001	0.64
Aug 17, 2001	0.63
Aug 24, 2001	0.61
Aug 31, 2001	0.60
Sep 7, 2001	0.59
Sep 14, 2001	0.58
Sep 21, 2001	0.57
Sep 28, 2001	0.55
Oct 5, 2001	0.54
Oct 12, 2001	0.53
Oct 19, 2001	0.52
Oct 26, 2001	0.52
Nov 2, 2001	0.51
Nov 9, 2001	0.50
Nov 16, 2001	0.50
Nov 23, 2001	0.50
Nov 30, 2001	0.49
Dec 7, 2001	0.49
Dec 14, 2001	0.50
Dec 21, 2001	0.50
Dec 28, 2001	0.50
Jan 4, 2002	0.50
Jan 11, 2002	0.51
Jan 18, 2002	0.51
Jan 25, 2002	0.51
Feb 1, 2002	0.52
Feb 8, 2002	0.52
Feb 15, 2002	0.52
Feb 22, 2002	0.52
Mar 1, 2002	0.52
Mar 8, 2002	0.52
Mar 15, 2002	0.52
Mar 22, 2002	0.52
Mar 29, 2002	0.51
Apr 5, 2002	0.51
Apr 12, 2002	0.50
Apr 19, 2002	0.50
Apr 26, 2002	0.49
May 3, 2002	0.49
May 10, 2002	0.48
May 17, 2002	0.47
May 24, 2002	0.47
May 31, 2002	0.46
Jun 7, 2002	0.46
Jun 14, 2002	0.45
Jun 21, 2002	0.45
Jun 28, 2002	0.44
Jul 5, 2002	0.44
Jul 12, 2002	0.44
Jul 19, 2002	0.43
Jul 26, 2002	0.43
Aug 2, 2002	0.43
Aug 9, 2002	0.43
Aug 16, 2002	0.43
Aug 23, 2002	0.42
Aug 30, 2002	0.42
Sep 6, 2002	0.42
Sep 13, 2002	0.42
Sep 20, 2002	0.42
Sep 27, 2002	0.43
Oct 4, 2002	0.43
Oct 11, 2002	0.42
Oct 18, 2002	0.42
Oct 25, 2002	0.42
Nov 1, 2002	0.42
Nov 8, 2002	0.42
Nov 15, 2002	0.42
Nov 22, 2002	0.41
Nov 29, 2002	0.41
Dec 6, 2002	0.40
Dec 13, 2002	0.40
Dec 20, 2002	0.39
Dec 27, 2002	0.39
Jan 3, 2003	0.38
Jan 10, 2003	0.37
Jan 17, 2003	0.36
Jan 24, 2003	0.36
Jan 31, 2003	0.35
Feb 7, 2003	0.34
Feb 14, 2003	0.33
Feb 21, 2003	0.32
Feb 28, 2003	0.32
Mar 7, 2003	0.31
Mar 14, 2003	0.30
Mar 21, 2003	0.29
Mar 28, 2003	0.28
Apr 4, 2003	0.27
Apr 11, 2003	0.26
Apr 18, 2003	0.26
Apr 25, 2003	0.25
May 2, 2003	0.24
May 9, 2003	0.23
May 16, 2003	0.22
May 23, 2003	0.22
May 30, 2003	0.21
Jun 6, 2003	0.20
Jun 13, 2003	0.20
Jun 20, 2003	0.19
Jun 27, 2003	0.19
Jul 4, 2003	0.18
Jul 11, 2003	0.18
Jul 18, 2003	0.17
Jul 25, 2003	0.17
Aug 1, 2003	0.17
Aug 8, 2003	0.17
Aug 15, 2003	0.17
Aug 22, 2003	0.17
Aug 29, 2003	0.17
Sep 5, 2003	0.17
Sep 12, 2003	0.17
Sep 19, 2003	0.18
Sep 26, 2003	0.18
Oct 3, 2003	0.19
Oct 10, 2003	0.20
Oct 17, 2003	0.20
Oct 24, 2003	0.21
Oct 31, 2003	0.22
Nov 7, 2003	0.23
Nov 14, 2003	0.24
Nov 21, 2003	0.25
Nov 28, 2003	0.25
Dec 5, 2003	0.26
Dec 12, 2003	0.27
Dec 19, 2003	0.28
Dec 26, 2003	0.29
Jan 2, 2004	0.30
Jan 9, 2004	0.31
Jan 16, 2004	0.32
Jan 23, 2004	0.33
Jan 30, 2004	0.34
Feb 6, 2004	0.35
Feb 13, 2004	0.36
Feb 20, 2004	0.37
Feb 27, 2004	0.37
Mar 5, 2004	0.38
Mar 12, 2004	0.39
Mar 19, 2004	0.40
Mar 26, 2004	0.41
Apr 2, 2004	0.42
Apr 9, 2004	0.42
Apr 16, 2004	0.43
Apr 23, 2004	0.44
Apr 30, 2004	0.45
May 7, 2004	0.46
May 14, 2004	0.47
May 21, 2004	0.48
May 28, 2004	0.49
Jun 4, 2004	0.50
Jun 11, 2004	0.51
Jun 18, 2004	0.52
Jun 25, 2004	0.53
Jul 2, 2004	0.54
Jul 9, 2004	0.55
Jul 16, 2004	0.56
Jul 23, 2004	0.57
Jul 30, 2004	0.59
Aug 6, 2004	0.60
Aug 13, 2004	0.61
Aug 20, 2004	0.62
Aug 27, 2004	0.63
Sep 3, 2004	0.65
Sep 10, 2004	0.66
Sep 17, 2004	0.67
Sep 24, 2004	0.68
Oct 1, 2004	0.69
Oct 8, 2004	0.71
Oct 15, 2004	0.72
Oct 22, 2004	0.73
Oct 29, 2004	0.74
Nov 5, 2004	0.75
Nov 12, 2004	0.77
Nov 19, 2004	0.78
Nov 26, 2004	0.79
Dec 3, 2004	0.81
Dec 10, 2004	0.82
Dec 17, 2004	0.83
Dec 24, 2004	0.85
Dec 31, 2004	0.86
Jan 7, 2005	0.87
Jan 14, 2005	0.89
Jan 21, 2005	0.90
Jan 28, 2005	0.92
Feb 4, 2005	0.93
Feb 11, 2005	0.95
Feb 18, 2005	0.96
Feb 25, 2005	0.97
Mar 4, 2005	0.99
Mar 11, 2005	1.00
Mar 18, 2005	1.02
Mar 25, 2005	1.03
Apr 1, 2005	1.05
Apr 8, 2005	1.06
Apr 15, 2005	1.08
Apr 22, 2005	1.09
Apr 29, 2005	1.11
May 6, 2005	1.13
May 13, 2005	1.14
May 20, 2005	1.16
May 27, 2005	1.17
Jun 3, 2005	1.19
Jun 10, 2005	1.21
Jun 17, 2005	1.22
Jun 24, 2005	1.24
Jul 1, 2005	1.26
Jul 8, 2005	1.28
Jul 15, 2005	1.30
Jul 22, 2005	1.32
Jul 29, 2005	1.34
Aug 5, 2005	1.36
Aug 12, 2005	1.39
Aug 19, 2005	1.41
Aug 26, 2005	1.43
Sep 2, 2005	1.46
Sep 9, 2005	1.48
Sep 16, 2005	1.51
Sep 23, 2005	1.53
Sep 30, 2005	1.56
Oct 7, 2005	1.58
Oct 14, 2005	1.61
Oct 21, 2005	1.63
Oct 28, 2005	1.65
Nov 4, 2005	1.67
Nov 11, 2005	1.70
Nov 18, 2005	1.72
Nov 25, 2005	1.73
Dec 2, 2005	1.75
Dec 9, 2005	1.77
Dec 16, 2005	1.79
Dec 23, 2005	1.80
Dec 30, 2005	1.82
Jan 6, 2006	1.83
Jan 13, 2006	1.85
Jan 20, 2006	1.87
Jan 27, 2006	1.88
Feb 3, 2006	1.90
Feb 10, 2006	1.92
Feb 17, 2006	1.94
Feb 24, 2006	1.96
Mar 3, 2006	1.98
Mar 10, 2006	2.00
Mar 17, 2006	2.02
Mar 24, 2006	2.04
Mar 31, 2006	2.06
Apr 7, 2006	2.09
Apr 14, 2006	2.11
Apr 21, 2006	2.13
Apr 28, 2006	2.15
May 5, 2006	2.17
May 12, 2006	2.20
May 19, 2006	2.22
May 26, 2006	2.23
Jun 2, 2006	2.25
Jun 9, 2006	2.27
Jun 16, 2006	2.29
Jun 23, 2006	2.30
Jun 30, 2006	2.32
Jul 7, 2006	2.33
Jul 14, 2006	2.34
Jul 21, 2006	2.35
Jul 28, 2006	2.36
Aug 4, 2006	2.38
Aug 11, 2006	2.39
Aug 18, 2006	2.40
Aug 25, 2006	2.40
Sep 1, 2006	2.41
Sep 8, 2006	2.42
Sep 15, 2006	2.43
Sep 22, 2006	2.44
Sep 29, 2006	2.45
Oct 6, 2006	2.46
Oct 13, 2006	2.47
Oct 20, 2006	2.48
Oct 27, 2006	2.48
Nov 3, 2006	2.49
Nov 10, 2006	2.50
Nov 17, 2006	2.51
Nov 24, 2006	2.52
Dec 1, 2006	2.53
Dec 8, 2006	2.54
Dec 15, 2006	2.55
Dec 22, 2006	2.55
Dec 29, 2006	2.56
Jan 5, 2007	2.57
Jan 12, 2007	2.58
Jan 19, 2007	2.59
Jan 26, 2007	2.60
Feb 2, 2007	2.61
Feb 9, 2007	2.62
Feb 16, 2007	2.62
Feb 23, 2007	2.63
Mar 2, 2007	2.64
Mar 9, 2007	2.65
Mar 16, 2007	2.66
Mar 23, 2007	2.67
Mar 30, 2007	2.67
Apr 6, 2007	2.68
Apr 13, 2007	2.69
Apr 20, 2007	2.70
Apr 27, 2007	2.70
May 4, 2007	2.71
May 11, 2007	2.72
May 18, 2007	2.72
May 25, 2007	2.73
Jun 1, 2007	2.74
Jun 8, 2007	2.74
Jun 15, 2007	2.75
Jun 22, 2007	2.75
Jun 29, 2007	2.75
Jul 6, 2007	2.76
Jul 13, 2007	2.76
Jul 20, 2007	2.76
Jul 27, 2007	2.77
Aug 3, 2007	2.77
Aug 10, 2007	2.77
Aug 17, 2007	2.77
Aug 24, 2007	2.77
Aug 31, 2007	2.77
Sep 7, 2007	2.77
Sep 14, 2007	2.77
Sep 21, 2007	2.77
Sep 28, 2007	2.77
Oct 5, 2007	2.77
Oct 12, 2007	2.77
Oct 19, 2007	2.76
Oct 26, 2007	2.76
Nov 2, 2007	2.76
Nov 9, 2007	2.76
Nov 16, 2007	2.76
Nov 23, 2007	2.76
Nov 30, 2007	2.76
Dec 7, 2007	2.76
Dec 14, 2007	2.75
Dec 21, 2007	2.75
Dec 28, 2007	2.75
Jan 4, 2008	2.74
Jan 11, 2008	2.74
Jan 18, 2008	2.73
Jan 25, 2008	2.72
Feb 1, 2008	2.71
Feb 8, 2008	2.70
Feb 15, 2008	2.69
Feb 22, 2008	2.68
Feb 29, 2008	2.66
Mar 7, 2008	2.65
Mar 14, 2008	2.63
Mar 21, 2008	2.61
Mar 28, 2008	2.59
Apr 4, 2008	2.57
Apr 11, 2008	2.55
Apr 18, 2008	2.53
Apr 25, 2008	2.51
May 2, 2008	2.49
May 9, 2008	2.47
May 16, 2008	2.45
May 23, 2008	2.43
May 30, 2008	2.41
Jun 6, 2008	2.39
Jun 13, 2008	2.37
Jun 20, 2008	2.36
Jun 27, 2008	2.34
Jul 4, 2008	2.33
Jul 11, 2008	2.31
Jul 18, 2008	2.30
Jul 25, 2008	2.28
Aug 1, 2008	2.27
Aug 8, 2008	2.26
Aug 15, 2008	2.24
Aug 22, 2008	2.23
Aug 29, 2008	2.22
Sep 5, 2008	2.20
Sep 12, 2008	2.19
Sep 19, 2008	2.17
Sep 26, 2008	2.16
Oct 3, 2008	2.14
Oct 10, 2008	2.12
Oct 17, 2008	2.10
Oct 24, 2008	2.07
Oct 31, 2008	2.05
Nov 7, 2008	2.02
Nov 14, 2008	1.99
Nov 21, 2008	1.96
Nov 28, 2008	1.92
Dec 5, 2008	1.88
Dec 12, 2008	1.84
Dec 19, 2008	1.80
Dec 26, 2008	1.76
Jan 2, 2009	1.71
Jan 9, 2009	1.66
Jan 16, 2009	1.62
Jan 23, 2009	1.57
Jan 30, 2009	1.52
Feb 6, 2009	1.47
Feb 13, 2009	1.42
Feb 20, 2009	1.37
Feb 27, 2009	1.32
Mar 6, 2009	1.27
Mar 13, 2009	1.22
Mar 20, 2009	1.17
Mar 27, 2009	1.12
Apr 3, 2009	1.07
Apr 10, 2009	1.01
Apr 17, 2009	0.96
Apr 24, 2009	0.91
May 1, 2009	0.86
May 8, 2009	0.80
May 15, 2009	0.75
May 22, 2009	0.70
May 29, 2009	0.64
Jun 5, 2009	0.59
Jun 12, 2009	0.53
Jun 19, 2009	0.48
Jun 26, 2009	0.42
Jul 3, 2009	0.37
Jul 10, 2009	0.32
Jul 17, 2009	0.26
Jul 24, 2009	0.21
Jul 31, 2009	0.17
Aug 7, 2009	0.12
Aug 14, 2009	0.08
Aug 21, 2009	0.04
Aug 28, 2009	0.00
Sep 4, 2009	-0.04
Sep 11, 2009	-0.07
Sep 18, 2009	-0.11
Sep 25, 2009	-0.14
Oct 2, 2009	-0.16
Oct 9, 2009	-0.19
Oct 16, 2009	-0.22
Oct 23, 2009	-0.24
Oct 30, 2009	-0.26
Nov 6, 2009	-0.29
Nov 13, 2009	-0.31
Nov 20, 2009	-0.33
Nov 27, 2009	-0.35
Dec 4, 2009	-0.37
Dec 11, 2009	-0.40
Dec 18, 2009	-0.42
Dec 25, 2009	-0.44
Jan 1, 2010	-0.47
Jan 8, 2010	-0.49
Jan 15, 2010	-0.52
Jan 22, 2010	-0.54
Jan 29, 2010	-0.57
Feb 5, 2010	-0.59
Feb 12, 2010	-0.62
Feb 19, 2010	-0.64
Feb 26, 2010	-0.67
Mar 5, 2010	-0.70
Mar 12, 2010	-0.72
Mar 19, 2010	-0.75
Mar 26, 2010	-0.77
Apr 2, 2010	-0.80
Apr 9, 2010	-0.82
Apr 16, 2010	-0.84
Apr 23, 2010	-0.86
Apr 30, 2010	-0.88
May 7, 2010	-0.90
May 14, 2010	-0.91
May 21, 2010	-0.93
May 28, 2010	-0.94
Jun 4, 2010	-0.95
Jun 11, 2010	-0.96
Jun 18, 2010	-0.97
Jun 25, 2010	-0.98
Jul 2, 2010	-0.98
Jul 9, 2010	-0.99
Jul 16, 2010	-0.99
Jul 23, 2010	-1.00
Jul 30, 2010	-1.01
Aug 6, 2010	-1.01
Aug 13, 2010	-1.02
Aug 20, 2010	-1.03
Aug 27, 2010	-1.04
Sep 3, 2010	-1.05
Sep 10, 2010	-1.07
Sep 17, 2010	-1.08
Sep 24, 2010	-1.09
Oct 1, 2010	-1.11
Oct 8, 2010	-1.12
Oct 15, 2010	-1.14
Oct 22, 2010	-1.15
Oct 29, 2010	-1.17
Nov 5, 2010	-1.18
Nov 12, 2010	-1.19
Nov 19, 2010	-1.20
Nov 26, 2010	-1.21
Dec 3, 2010	-1.22
Dec 10, 2010	-1.23
Dec 17, 2010	-1.23
Dec 24, 2010	-1.24
Dec 31, 2010	-1.24
Jan 7, 2011	-1.24
Jan 14, 2011	-1.25
Jan 21, 2011	-1.25
Jan 28, 2011	-1.25
Feb 4, 2011	-1.25
Feb 11, 2011	-1.25
Feb 18, 2011	-1.25
Feb 25, 2011	-1.25
Mar 4, 2011	-1.25
Mar 11, 2011	-1.26
Mar 18, 2011	-1.26
Mar 25, 2011	-1.26
Apr 1, 2011	-1.26
Apr 8, 2011	-1.27
Apr 15, 2011	-1.27
Apr 22, 2011	-1.27
Apr 29, 2011	-1.28
May 6, 2011	-1.28
May 13, 2011	-1.29
May 20, 2011	-1.29
May 27, 2011	-1.30
Jun 3, 2011	-1.30
Jun 10, 2011	-1.31
Jun 17, 2011	-1.31
Jun 24, 2011	-1.32
Jul 1, 2011	-1.33
Jul 8, 2011	-1.33
Jul 15, 2011	-1.34
Jul 22, 2011	-1.34
Jul 29, 2011	-1.35
Aug 5, 2011	-1.36
Aug 12, 2011	-1.36
Aug 19, 2011	-1.37
Aug 26, 2011	-1.37
Sep 2, 2011	-1.38
Sep 9, 2011	-1.39
Sep 16, 2011	-1.39
Sep 23, 2011	-1.40
Sep 30, 2011	-1.41
Oct 7, 2011	-1.41
Oct 14, 2011	-1.42
Oct 21, 2011	-1.42
Oct 28, 2011	-1.43
Nov 4, 2011	-1.44
Nov 11, 2011	-1.44
Nov 18, 2011	-1.45
Nov 25, 2011	-1.45
Dec 2, 2011	-1.46
Dec 9, 2011	-1.47
Dec 16, 2011	-1.47
Dec 23, 2011	-1.47
Dec 30, 2011	-1.48
Jan 6, 2012	-1.48
Jan 13, 2012	-1.48
Jan 20, 2012	-1.48
Jan 27, 2012	-1.48
Feb 3, 2012	-1.48
Feb 10, 2012	-1.48
Feb 17, 2012	-1.48
Feb 24, 2012	-1.48
Mar 2, 2012	-1.47
Mar 9, 2012	-1.47
Mar 16, 2012	-1.46
Mar 23, 2012	-1.46
Mar 30, 2012	-1.45
Apr 6, 2012	-1.44
Apr 13, 2012	-1.44
Apr 20, 2012	-1.43
Apr 27, 2012	-1.42
May 4, 2012	-1.42
May 11, 2012	-1.41
May 18, 2012	-1.40
May 25, 2012	-1.40
Jun 1, 2012	-1.40
Jun 8, 2012	-1.39
Jun 15, 2012	-1.39
Jun 22, 2012	-1.39
Jun 29, 2012	-1.38
Jul 6, 2012	-1.38
Jul 13, 2012	-1.38
Jul 20, 2012	-1.38
Jul 27, 2012	-1.38
Aug 3, 2012	-1.38
Aug 10, 2012	-1.38
Aug 17, 2012	-1.38
Aug 24, 2012	-1.38
Aug 31, 2012	-1.38
Sep 7, 2012	-1.38
Sep 14, 2012	-1.38
Sep 21, 2012	-1.38
Sep 28, 2012	-1.38
Oct 5, 2012	-1.38
Oct 12, 2012	-1.39
Oct 19, 2012	-1.39
Oct 26, 2012	-1.39
Nov 2, 2012	-1.39
Nov 9, 2012	-1.39
Nov 16, 2012	-1.39
Nov 23, 2012	-1.39
Nov 30, 2012	-1.39
Dec 7, 2012	-1.39
Dec 14, 2012	-1.40
Dec 21, 2012	-1.40
Dec 28, 2012	-1.40
Jan 4, 2013	-1.40
Jan 11, 2013	-1.39
Jan 18, 2013	-1.39
Jan 25, 2013	-1.39
Feb 1, 2013	-1.39
Feb 8, 2013	-1.38
Feb 15, 2013	-1.38
Feb 22, 2013	-1.37
Mar 1, 2013	-1.37
Mar 8, 2013	-1.36
Mar 15, 2013	-1.35
Mar 22, 2013	-1.34
Mar 29, 2013	-1.34
Apr 5, 2013	-1.33
Apr 12, 2013	-1.32
Apr 19, 2013	-1.31
Apr 26, 2013	-1.30
May 3, 2013	-1.29
May 10, 2013	-1.28
May 17, 2013	-1.27
May 24, 2013	-1.27
May 31, 2013	-1.26
Jun 7, 2013	-1.25
Jun 14, 2013	-1.25
Jun 21, 2013	-1.24
Jun 28, 2013	-1.24
Jul 5, 2013	-1.23
Jul 12, 2013	-1.23
Jul 19, 2013	-1.22
Jul 26, 2013	-1.22
Aug 2, 2013	-1.21
Aug 9, 2013	-1.21
Aug 16, 2013	-1.21
Aug 23, 2013	-1.20
Aug 30, 2013	-1.20
Sep 6, 2013	-1.20
Sep 13, 2013	-1.19
Sep 20, 2013	-1.19
Sep 27, 2013	-1.18
Oct 4, 2013	-1.18
Oct 11, 2013	-1.18
Oct 18, 2013	-1.17
Oct 25, 2013	-1.17
Nov 1, 2013	-1.16
Nov 8, 2013	-1.16
Nov 15, 2013	-1.15
Nov 22, 2013	-1.15
Nov 29, 2013	-1.14
Dec 6, 2013	-1.14
Dec 13, 2013	-1.13
Dec 20, 2013	-1.13
Dec 27, 2013	-1.12
Jan 3, 2014	-1.12
Jan 10, 2014	-1.12
Jan 17, 2014	-1.11
Jan 24, 2014	-1.11
Jan 31, 2014	-1.11
Feb 7, 2014	-1.11
Feb 14, 2014	-1.11
Feb 21, 2014	-1.11
Feb 28, 2014	-1.11
Mar 7, 2014	-1.12
Mar 14, 2014	-1.12
Mar 21, 2014	-1.12
Mar 28, 2014	-1.13
Apr 4, 2014	-1.13
Apr 11, 2014	-1.13
Apr 18, 2014	-1.14
Apr 25, 2014	-1.14
May 2, 2014	-1.14
May 9, 2014	-1.14
May 16, 2014	-1.14
May 23, 2014	-1.14
May 30, 2014	-1.14
Jun 6, 2014	-1.14
Jun 13, 2014	-1.14
Jun 20, 2014	-1.13
Jun 27, 2014	-1.13
Jul 4, 2014	-1.12
Jul 11, 2014	-1.12
Jul 18, 2014	-1.11
Jul 25, 2014	-1.10
Aug 1, 2014	-1.10
Aug 8, 2014	-1.09
Aug 15, 2014	-1.08
Aug 22, 2014	-1.07
Aug 29, 2014	-1.06
Sep 5, 2014	-1.06
Sep 12, 2014	-1.05
Sep 19, 2014	-1.04
Sep 26, 2014	-1.03
Oct 3, 2014	-1.02
Oct 10, 2014	-1.01
Oct 17, 2014	-1.01
Oct 24, 2014	-1.00
Oct 31, 2014	-0.99
Nov 7, 2014	-0.98
Nov 14, 2014	-0.98
Nov 21, 2014	-0.97
Nov 28, 2014	-0.97
Dec 5, 2014	-0.96
Dec 12, 2014	-0.96
Dec 19, 2014	-0.95
Dec 26, 2014	-0.95
Jan 2, 2015	-0.94
Jan 9, 2015	-0.94
Jan 16, 2015	-0.93
Jan 23, 2015	-0.93
Jan 30, 2015	-0.92
Feb 6, 2015	-0.92
Feb 13, 2015	-0.91
Feb 20, 2015	-0.91
Feb 27, 2015	-0.91
Mar 6, 2015	-0.90
Mar 13, 2015	-0.90
Mar 20, 2015	-0.89
Mar 27, 2015	-0.89
Apr 3, 2015	-0.88
Apr 10, 2015	-0.88
Apr 17, 2015	-0.88
Apr 24, 2015	-0.87
May 1, 2015	-0.87
May 8, 2015	-0.86
May 15, 2015	-0.86
May 22, 2015	-0.85
May 29, 2015	-0.84
Jun 5, 2015	-0.84
Jun 12, 2015	-0.83
Jun 19, 2015	-0.83
Jun 26, 2015	-0.82
Jul 3, 2015	-0.82
Jul 10, 2015	-0.81
Jul 17, 2015	-0.81
Jul 24, 2015	-0.80
Jul 31, 2015	-0.79
Aug 7, 2015	-0.79
Aug 14, 2015	-0.78
Aug 21, 2015	-0.78
Aug 28, 2015	-0.77
Sep 4, 2015	-0.77
Sep 11, 2015	-0.76
Sep 18, 2015	-0.76
Sep 25, 2015	-0.75
Oct 2, 2015	-0.75
Oct 9, 2015	-0.74
Oct 16, 2015	-0.74
Oct 23, 2015	-0.73
Oct 30, 2015	-0.73
Nov 6, 2015	-0.72
Nov 13, 2015	-0.72
Nov 20, 2015	-0.71
Nov 27, 2015	-0.71
Dec 4, 2015	-0.70
Dec 11, 2015	-0.70
Dec 18, 2015	-0.69
Dec 25, 2015	-0.69
Jan 1, 2016	-0.68
Jan 8, 2016	-0.68
Jan 15, 2016	-0.68
Jan 22, 2016	-0.67
Jan 29, 2016	-0.67
Feb 5, 2016	-0.67
Feb 12, 2016	-0.66
Feb 19, 2016	-0.66
Feb 26, 2016	-0.66
Mar 4, 2016	-0.66
Mar 11, 2016	-0.65
Mar 18, 2016	-0.65
Mar 25, 2016	-0.65
Apr 1, 2016	-0.65
Apr 8, 2016	-0.65
Apr 15, 2016	-0.65
Apr 22, 2016	-0.64
Apr 29, 2016	-0.64
May 6, 2016	-0.64
May 13, 2016	-0.64
May 20, 2016	-0.64
May 27, 2016	-0.64
Jun 3, 2016	-0.64
Jun 10, 2016	-0.64
Jun 17, 2016	-0.63
Jun 24, 2016	-0.63
Jul 1, 2016	-0.63
Jul 8, 2016	-0.63
Jul 15, 2016	-0.63
Jul 22, 2016	-0.63
Jul 29, 2016	-0.63
Aug 5, 2016	-0.63
Aug 12, 2016	-0.63
Aug 19, 2016	-0.63
Aug 26, 2016	-0.63
Sep 2, 2016	-0.63
Sep 9, 2016	-0.63
Sep 16, 2016	-0.63
Sep 23, 2016	-0.63
Sep 30, 2016	-0.63
Oct 7, 2016	-0.63
Oct 14, 2016	-0.63
Oct 21, 2016	-0.62
Oct 28, 2016	-0.62
Nov 4, 2016	-0.62
Nov 11, 2016	-0.62
Nov 18, 2016	-0.62
Nov 25, 2016	-0.61
Dec 2, 2016	-0.61
Dec 9, 2016	-0.61
Dec 16, 2016	-0.61
Dec 23, 2016	-0.60
Dec 30, 2016	-0.60
Jan 6, 2017	-0.59
Jan 13, 2017	-0.59
Jan 20, 2017	-0.58
Jan 27, 2017	-0.58
Feb 3, 2017	-0.58
Feb 10, 2017	-0.57
Feb 17, 2017	-0.57
Feb 24, 2017	-0.56
Mar 3, 2017	-0.56
Mar 10, 2017	-0.56
Mar 17, 2017	-0.55
Mar 24, 2017	-0.55
Mar 31, 2017	-0.55
Apr 7, 2017	-0.55
Apr 14, 2017	-0.54
Apr 21, 2017	-0.54
Apr 28, 2017	-0.54
May 5, 2017	-0.54
May 12, 2017	-0.54
May 19, 2017	-0.54
May 26, 2017	-0.54
Jun 2, 2017	-0.54
Jun 9, 2017	-0.54
Jun 16, 2017	-0.54
Jun 23, 2017	-0.54
Jun 30, 2017	-0.54
Jul 7, 2017	-0.54
Jul 14, 2017	-0.54
Jul 21, 2017	-0.55
Jul 28, 2017	-0.55
Aug 4, 2017	-0.55
Aug 11, 2017	-0.55
Aug 18, 2017	-0.55
Aug 25, 2017	-0.56
Sep 1, 2017	-0.56
Sep 8, 2017	-0.56
Sep 15, 2017	-0.56
Sep 22, 2017	-0.56
Sep 29, 2017	-0.56
Oct 6, 2017	-0.56
Oct 13, 2017	-0.56
Oct 20, 2017	-0.56
Oct 27, 2017	-0.56
Nov 3, 2017	-0.56
Nov 10, 2017	-0.56
Nov 17, 2017	-0.55
Nov 24, 2017	-0.55
Dec 1, 2017	-0.55
Dec 8, 2017	-0.54
Dec 15, 2017	-0.54
Dec 22, 2017	-0.53
Dec 29, 2017	-0.52
Jan 5, 2018	-0.52
Jan 12, 2018	-0.51
Jan 19, 2018	-0.50
Jan 26, 2018	-0.49
Feb 2, 2018	-0.49
Feb 9, 2018	-0.48
Feb 16, 2018	-0.47
Feb 23, 2018	-0.46
Mar 2, 2018	-0.45
Mar 9, 2018	-0.45
Mar 16, 2018	-0.44
Mar 23, 2018	-0.43
Mar 30, 2018	-0.42
Apr 6, 2018	-0.42
Apr 13, 2018	-0.41
Apr 20, 2018	-0.40
Apr 27, 2018	-0.40
May 4, 2018	-0.39
May 11, 2018	-0.39
May 18, 2018	-0.38
May 25, 2018	-0.38
Jun 1, 2018	-0.38
Jun 8, 2018	-0.37
Jun 15, 2018	-0.37
Jun 22, 2018	-0.37
Jun 29, 2018	-0.37
Jul 6, 2018	-0.36
Jul 13, 2018	-0.36
Jul 20, 2018	-0.36
Jul 27, 2018	-0.36
Aug 3, 2018	-0.36
Aug 10, 2018	-0.36
Aug 17, 2018	-0.35
Aug 24, 2018	-0.35
Aug 31, 2018	-0.35
Sep 7, 2018	-0.35
Sep 14, 2018	-0.35
Sep 21, 2018	-0.35
Sep 28, 2018	-0.34
Oct 5, 2018	-0.34
Oct 12, 2018	-0.34
Oct 19, 2018	-0.34
Oct 26, 2018	-0.34
Nov 2, 2018	-0.34
Nov 9, 2018	-0.34
Nov 16, 2018	-0.34
Nov 23, 2018	-0.34
Nov 30, 2018	-0.34
Dec 7, 2018	-0.34
Dec 14, 2018	-0.35
Dec 21, 2018	-0.35
Dec 28, 2018	-0.35
Jan 4, 2019	-0.36
Jan 11, 2019	-0.36
Jan 18, 2019	-0.37
Jan 25, 2019	-0.38
Feb 1, 2019	-0.38
Feb 8, 2019	-0.39
Feb 15, 2019	-0.40
Feb 22, 2019	-0.41
Mar 1, 2019	-0.42
Mar 8, 2019	-0.43
Mar 15, 2019	-0.44
Mar 22, 2019	-0.45
Mar 29, 2019	-0.46
Apr 5, 2019	-0.47
Apr 12, 2019	-0.48
Apr 19, 2019	-0.49
Apr 26, 2019	-0.50
May 3, 2019	-0.51
May 10, 2019	-0.52
May 17, 2019	-0.53
May 24, 2019	-0.54
May 31, 2019	-0.54
Jun 7, 2019	-0.55
Jun 14, 2019	-0.56
Jun 21, 2019	-0.56
Jun 28, 2019	-0.57
Jul 5, 2019	-0.57
Jul 12, 2019	-0.58
Jul 19, 2019	-0.58
Jul 26, 2019	-0.59
Aug 2, 2019	-0.59
Aug 9, 2019	-0.60
Aug 16, 2019	-0.60
Aug 23, 2019	-0.61
Aug 30, 2019	-0.61
Sep 6, 2019	-0.62
Sep 13, 2019	-0.62
Sep 20, 2019	-0.63
Sep 27, 2019	-0.63
Oct 4, 2019	-0.64
Oct 11, 2019	-0.64
Oct 18, 2019	-0.65
Oct 25, 2019	-0.65
Nov 1, 2019	-0.65
Nov 8, 2019	-0.66
Nov 15, 2019	-0.66
Nov 22, 2019	-0.66
Nov 29, 2019	-0.65
Dec 6, 2019	-0.65
Dec 13, 2019	-0.65
Dec 20, 2019	-0.64
Dec 27, 2019	-0.63
Jan 3, 2020	-0.62
Jan 10, 2020	-0.61
Jan 17, 2020	-0.61
Jan 24, 2020	-0.60
Jan 31, 2020	-0.59
Feb 7, 2020	-0.58
Feb 14, 2020	-0.58
Feb 21, 2020	-0.57
Feb 28, 2020	-0.57
Mar 6, 2020	-0.57
Mar 13, 2020	-0.58
Mar 20, 2020	-0.59
Mar 27, 2020	-0.60
Apr 3, 2020	-0.62
Apr 10, 2020	-0.65
Apr 17, 2020	-0.68
Apr 24, 2020	-0.72
May 1, 2020	-0.77
May 8, 2020	-0.82
May 15, 2020	-0.88
May 22, 2020	-0.95
May 29, 2020	-1.02
Jun 5, 2020	-1.10
Jun 12, 2020	-1.18
Jun 19, 2020	-1.27
Jun 26, 2020	-1.36
Jul 3, 2020	-1.44
Jul 10, 2020	-1.52
Jul 17, 2020	-1.60
Jul 24, 2020	-1.68
Jul 31, 2020	-1.75
Aug 7, 2020	-1.80
Aug 14, 2020	-1.86
Aug 21, 2020	-1.90
Aug 28, 2020	-1.93
Sep 4, 2020	-1.96
Sep 11, 2020	-1.97
Sep 18, 2020	-1.98
Sep 25, 2020	-1.98
Oct 2, 2020	-1.97
Oct 9, 2020	-1.96
Oct 16, 2020	-1.95
Oct 23, 2020	-1.93
Oct 30, 2020	-1.91
Nov 6, 2020	-1.89
Nov 13, 2020	-1.87
Nov 20, 2020	-1.85
Nov 27, 2020	-1.84
Dec 4, 2020	-1.82
Dec 11, 2020	-1.80
Dec 18, 2020	-1.79
Dec 25, 2020	-1.78
Jan 1, 2021	-1.77
Jan 8, 2021	-1.76
Jan 15, 2021	-1.76
Jan 22, 2021	-1.75
Jan 29, 2021	-1.74
Feb 5, 2021	-1.74
Feb 12, 2021	-1.74
Feb 19, 2021	-1.73
Feb 26, 2021	-1.72
Mar 5, 2021	-1.72
Mar 12, 2021	-1.71
Mar 19, 2021	-1.70
Mar 26, 2021	-1.69
Apr 2, 2021	-1.68
Apr 9, 2021	-1.66
Apr 16, 2021	-1.65
Apr 23, 2021	-1.63
Apr 30, 2021	-1.61
May 7, 2021	-1.59
May 14, 2021	-1.57
May 21, 2021	-1.54
May 28, 2021	-1.52
Jun 4, 2021	-1.50
Jun 11, 2021	-1.47
Jun 18, 2021	-1.45
Jun 25, 2021	-1.42
Jul 2, 2021	-1.40
Jul 9, 2021	-1.37
Jul 16, 2021	-1.35
Jul 23, 2021	-1.33
Jul 30, 2021	-1.31
Aug 6, 2021	-1.29
Aug 13, 2021	-1.27
Aug 20, 2021	-1.26
Aug 27, 2021	-1.25
Sep 3, 2021	-1.23
Sep 10, 2021	-1.22
Sep 17, 2021	-1.22
Sep 24, 2021	-1.21
Oct 1, 2021	-1.20
Oct 8, 2021	-1.19
Oct 15, 2021	-1.19
Oct 22, 2021	-1.18
Oct 29, 2021	-1.18
Nov 5, 2021	-1.17
Nov 12, 2021	-1.16
Nov 19, 2021	-1.15
Nov 26, 2021	-1.14
Dec 3, 2021	-1.13
Dec 10, 2021	-1.12
Dec 17, 2021	-1.10
Dec 24, 2021	-1.09
Dec 31, 2021	-1.07
Jan 7, 2022	-1.06
Jan 14, 2022	-1.04
Jan 21, 2022	-1.02
Jan 28, 2022	-1.00
Feb 4, 2022	-0.98
Feb 11, 2022	-0.96
Feb 18, 2022	-0.95
Feb 25, 2022	-0.93
Mar 4, 2022	-0.91
Mar 11, 2022	-0.89
Mar 18, 2022	-0.88
Mar 25, 2022	-0.86
Apr 1, 2022	-0.84
Apr 8, 2022	-0.83
Apr 15, 2022	-0.81
Apr 22, 2022	-0.80
Apr 29, 2022	-0.78
May 6, 2022	-0.77
May 13, 2022	-0.76
May 20, 2022	-0.74
May 27, 2022	-0.73
Jun 3, 2022	-0.72
Jun 10, 2022	-0.71
Jun 17, 2022	-0.70
Jun 24, 2022	-0.69
Jul 1, 2022	-0.68
Jul 8, 2022	-0.67
Jul 15, 2022	-0.66
Jul 22, 2022	-0.65
Jul 29, 2022	-0.65
Aug 5, 2022	-0.64
Aug 12, 2022	-0.63
Aug 19, 2022	-0.63
Aug 26, 2022	-0.62
Sep 2, 2022	-0.61
Sep 9, 2022	-0.61
Sep 16, 2022	-0.61
Sep 23, 2022	-0.60
Sep 30, 2022	-0.60
Oct 7, 2022	-0.60
Oct 14, 2022	-0.60
Oct 21, 2022	-0.60
Oct 28, 2022	-0.60
Nov 4, 2022	-0.60
Nov 11, 2022	-0.61
Nov 18, 2022	-0.61
Nov 25, 2022	-0.62
Dec 2, 2022	-0.62
Dec 9, 2022	-0.63
Dec 16, 2022	-0.64
Dec 23, 2022	-0.65
Dec 30, 2022	-0.65
Jan 6, 2023	-0.66
Jan 13, 2023	-0.67
Jan 20, 2023	-0.68
Jan 27, 2023	-0.69
Feb 3, 2023	-0.70
Feb 10, 2023	-0.70
Feb 17, 2023	-0.71
Feb 24, 2023	-0.71
Mar 3, 2023	-0.72
Mar 10, 2023	-0.72
Mar 17, 2023	-0.73
Mar 24, 2023	-0.73
Mar 31, 2023	-0.73
Apr 7, 2023	-0.73
Apr 14, 2023	-0.74
Apr 21, 2023	-0.74
Apr 28, 2023	-0.74
May 5, 2023	-0.74
May 12, 2023	-0.75
May 19, 2023	-0.75
May 26, 2023	-0.75
Jun 2, 2023	-0.76
Jun 9, 2023	-0.76
Jun 16, 2023	-0.77
Jun 23, 2023	-0.77
Jun 30, 2023	-0.77
Jul 7, 2023	-0.78
Jul 14, 2023	-0.78
Jul 21, 2023	-0.79
Jul 28, 2023	-0.79
Aug 4, 2023	-0.80
Aug 11, 2023	-0.80
Aug 18, 2023	-0.80
Aug 25, 2023	-0.80
Sep 1, 2023	-0.81
Sep 8, 2023	-0.81
Sep 15, 2023	-0.81
Sep 22, 2023	-0.81
Sep 29, 2023	-0.80
Oct 6, 2023	-0.80
Oct 13, 2023	-0.80
Oct 20, 2023	-0.80
Oct 27, 2023	-0.80
Nov 3, 2023	-0.80
Nov 10, 2023	-0.79
Nov 17, 2023	-0.79
Nov 24, 2023	-0.79
Dec 1, 2023	-0.79
Dec 8, 2023	-0.78
Dec 15, 2023	-0.78
Dec 22, 2023	-0.78
Dec 29, 2023	-0.78
Jan 5, 2024	-0.78
Jan 12, 2024	-0.78
Jan 19, 2024	-0.78
Jan 26, 2024	-0.78
Feb 2, 2024	-0.78
Feb 9, 2024	-0.78
Feb 16, 2024	-0.78
Feb 23, 2024	-0.78
Mar 1, 2024	-0.78
Mar 8, 2024	-0.78
Mar 15, 2024	-0.78
Mar 22, 2024	-0.78
Mar 29, 2024	-0.78
Apr 5, 2024	-0.78
Apr 12, 2024	-0.78
Apr 19, 2024	-0.78
Apr 26, 2024	-0.78
May 3, 2024	-0.78
May 10, 2024	-0.78
May 17, 2024	-0.78
May 24, 2024	-0.77
May 31, 2024	-0.77
Jun 7, 2024	-0.77
Jun 14, 2024	-0.77
Jun 21, 2024	-0.77
Jun 28, 2024	-0.77
Jul 5, 2024	-0.77
Jul 12, 2024	-0.77
Jul 19, 2024	-0.78
Jul 26, 2024	-0.78
Aug 2, 2024	-0.78
Aug 9, 2024	-0.78
Aug 16, 2024	-0.78
Aug 23, 2024	-0.79
Aug 30, 2024	-0.79
Sep 6, 2024	-0.79
Sep 13, 2024	-0.80
Sep 20, 2024	-0.80
Sep 27, 2024	-0.80
Oct 4, 2024	-0.80
Oct 11, 2024	-0.80
Oct 18, 2024	-0.80
Oct 25, 2024	-0.80
Nov 1, 2024	-0.80
Nov 8, 2024	-0.80
Nov 15, 2024	-0.80
Nov 22, 2024	-0.79
Nov 29, 2024	-0.78
Dec 6, 2024	-0.78
Dec 13, 2024	-0.77
Dec 20, 2024	-0.76
Dec 27, 2024	-0.75
Jan 3, 2025	-0.74
Jan 10, 2025	-0.73
Jan 17, 2025	-0.72
Jan 24, 2025	-0.71
Jan 31, 2025	-0.70
Feb 7, 2025	-0.69
Feb 14, 2025	-0.68
Feb 21, 2025	-0.67
Feb 28, 2025	-0.67
Mar 7, 2025	-0.66
Mar 14, 2025	-0.66
Mar 21, 2025	-0.66
Mar 28, 2025	-0.65
Apr 4, 2025	-0.65
Apr 11, 2025	-0.65
Apr 18, 2025	-0.65
Apr 25, 2025	-0.65
May 2, 2025	-0.65
May 9, 2025	-0.65
May 16, 2025	-0.65
May 23, 2025	-0.65
May 30, 2025	-0.65
Jun 6, 2025	-0.65
Jun 13, 2025	-0.64
Jun 20, 2025	-0.64
Jun 27, 2025	-0.64
Jul 4, 2025	-0.64
Jul 11, 2025	-0.64
Jul 18, 2025	-0.64
Jul 25, 2025	-0.63
Aug 1, 2025	-0.63
Aug 8, 2025	-0.63
Aug 15, 2025	-0.62
Aug 22, 2025	-0.62
Aug 29, 2025	-0.62
Sep 5, 2025	-0.61
Sep 12, 2025	-0.61
Sep 19, 2025	-0.61
Sep 26, 2025	-0.60
Oct 3, 2025	-0.60
Oct 10, 2025	-0.60
Oct 17, 2025	-0.59
Oct 24, 2025	-0.59
Oct 31, 2025	-0.59
Nov 7, 2025	-0.58
Nov 14, 2025	-0.58
Nov 21, 2025	-0.58
Nov 28, 2025	-0.58
Dec 5, 2025	-0.58
Dec 12, 2025	-0.57
Dec 19, 2025	-0.57
Dec 26, 2025	-0.57
Jan 2, 2026	-0.57
Jan 9, 2026	-0.57
Jan 16, 2026	-0.57
Jan 23, 2026	-0.57
Jan 30, 2026	-0.57
Feb 6, 2026	-0.58
Feb 13, 2026	-0.58
Feb 20, 2026	-0.58
Feb 27, 2026	-0.58
Mar 6, 2026	-0.58
Mar 13, 2026	-0.58
Mar 20, 2026	-0.58
Mar 27, 2026	-0.59
Apr 3, 2026	-0.59
Apr 10, 2026	-0.59
Apr 17, 2026	-0.59
Apr 24, 2026	-0.59
May 1, 2026	-0.59
May 8, 2026	-0.59
May 15, 2026	-0.58
May 22, 2026	-0.58
May 29, 2026	-0.58
Jun 5, 2026	-0.57
Jun 12, 2026	-0.57
Jun 19, 2026	-0.56
Jun 26, 2026	-0.56
Jul 3, 2026	-0.55
Jul 10, 2026	-0.54
Jul 17, 2026	-0.54
Jul 24, 2026	-0.53
Jul 31, 2026	-0.52
Aug 7, 2026	-0.52
Aug 14, 2026	-0.51
Aug 21, 2026	-0.51
Aug 28, 2026	-0.50
Sep 4, 2026	-0.49
Sep 11, 2026	-0.49
Sep 18, 2026	-0.48
Sep 25, 2026	-0.48
Oct 2, 2026	-0.48
Oct 9, 2026	-0.47
Oct 16, 2026	-0.47

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED NFCINONFINLEVERAGE.

Note: The index is re-estimated over its full history each week, so past values are revised; the backtest uses today’s vintage, a weaker standard than the no-hindsight rule for the other components. Scored from 1981.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 8

Gilchrist–Zakrajšek Corporate Credit Spread

(GZ spread, percentage points, monthly; average credit spread on senior unsecured bonds of nonfinancial firms over duration-matched Treasuries)

Triggers: corporate credit spreads are among the tightest in the series’ history

GZ spread (Sep 2026 = 0.93)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Gilchrist–Zakrajšek Corporate Credit Spread (data)
Date	GZ spread
Jan 1973	1.13
Feb 1973	1.08
Mar 1973	1.03
Apr 1973	0.98
May 1973	1.05
Jun 1973	1.19
Jul 1973	0.98
Aug 1973	0.98
Sep 1973	0.82
Oct 1973	1.27
Nov 1973	1.35
Dec 1973	1.30
Jan 1974	1.18
Feb 1974	1.31
Mar 1974	1.22
Apr 1974	1.25
May 1974	1.30
Jun 1974	1.90
Jul 1974	2.57
Aug 1974	2.13
Sep 1974	2.38
Oct 1974	2.55
Nov 1974	2.36
Dec 1974	2.66
Jan 1975	1.73
Feb 1975	1.65
Mar 1975	1.90
Apr 1975	1.56
May 1975	1.61
Jun 1975	1.46
Jul 1975	1.49
Aug 1975	1.30
Sep 1975	1.42
Oct 1975	1.36
Nov 1975	1.33
Dec 1975	1.25
Jan 1976	1.00
Feb 1976	1.06
Mar 1976	1.01
Apr 1976	1.05
May 1976	1.02
Jun 1976	1.02
Jul 1976	0.98
Aug 1976	0.91
Sep 1976	0.86
Oct 1976	0.92
Nov 1976	0.86
Dec 1976	1.11
Jan 1977	0.99
Feb 1977	0.94
Mar 1977	0.92
Apr 1977	0.86
May 1977	0.81
Jun 1977	0.85
Jul 1977	0.88
Aug 1977	0.93
Sep 1977	0.94
Oct 1977	0.93
Nov 1977	0.93
Dec 1977	0.79
Jan 1978	0.76
Feb 1978	0.71
Mar 1978	0.72
Apr 1978	0.74
May 1978	0.78
Jun 1978	0.62
Jul 1978	0.62
Aug 1978	0.60
Sep 1978	0.64
Oct 1978	0.56
Nov 1978	0.68
Dec 1978	0.65
Jan 1979	0.70
Feb 1979	0.67
Mar 1979	0.66
Apr 1979	0.67
May 1979	0.72
Jun 1979	0.77
Jul 1979	0.67
Aug 1979	0.60
Sep 1979	0.76
Oct 1979	0.81
Nov 1979	0.93
Dec 1979	0.94
Jan 1980	0.88
Feb 1980	1.02
Mar 1980	1.08
Apr 1980	1.31
May 1980	1.20
Jun 1980	1.20
Jul 1980	1.21
Aug 1980	1.07
Sep 1980	1.08
Oct 1980	0.95
Nov 1980	1.05
Dec 1980	1.20
Jan 1981	1.15
Feb 1981	1.00
Mar 1981	1.00
Apr 1981	1.19
May 1981	1.25
Jun 1981	1.18
Jul 1981	1.17
Aug 1981	1.08
Sep 1981	1.23
Oct 1981	1.33
Nov 1981	1.50
Dec 1981	1.48
Jan 1982	1.49
Feb 1982	1.48
Mar 1982	1.66
Apr 1982	1.68
May 1982	1.55
Jun 1982	1.59
Jul 1982	1.67
Aug 1982	1.74
Sep 1982	1.68
Oct 1982	1.81
Nov 1982	1.60
Dec 1982	1.62
Jan 1983	1.29
Feb 1983	1.37
Mar 1983	1.05
Apr 1983	1.00
May 1983	0.93
Jun 1983	0.91
Jul 1983	0.92
Aug 1983	0.85
Sep 1983	0.94
Oct 1983	0.87
Nov 1983	0.95
Dec 1983	0.97
Jan 1984	0.92
Feb 1984	0.91
Mar 1984	0.95
Apr 1984	0.96
May 1984	0.76
Jun 1984	0.78
Jul 1984	0.92
Aug 1984	0.92
Sep 1984	0.91
Oct 1984	0.93
Nov 1984	0.95
Dec 1984	0.96
Jan 1985	1.05
Feb 1985	0.94
Mar 1985	0.97
Apr 1985	1.06
May 1985	1.20
Jun 1985	1.17
Jul 1985	1.13
Aug 1985	1.16
Sep 1985	1.14
Oct 1985	1.23
Nov 1985	1.29
Dec 1985	1.37
Jan 1986	1.33
Feb 1986	1.55
Mar 1986	2.00
Apr 1986	1.92
May 1986	1.59
Jun 1986	1.90
Jul 1986	2.07
Aug 1986	2.23
Sep 1986	1.90
Oct 1986	1.91
Nov 1986	2.03
Dec 1986	1.93
Jan 1987	1.80
Feb 1987	1.90
Mar 1987	1.82
Apr 1987	1.71
May 1987	1.68
Jun 1987	1.64
Jul 1987	1.59
Aug 1987	1.52
Sep 1987	1.50
Oct 1987	1.62
Nov 1987	1.60
Dec 1987	1.57
Jan 1988	1.64
Feb 1988	1.60
Mar 1988	1.49
Apr 1988	1.39
May 1988	1.40
Jun 1988	1.46
Jul 1988	1.35
Aug 1988	1.34
Sep 1988	1.43
Oct 1988	1.56
Nov 1988	1.48
Dec 1988	1.49
Jan 1989	1.55
Feb 1989	1.45
Mar 1989	1.52
Apr 1989	1.58
May 1989	1.63
Jun 1989	1.83
Jul 1989	1.96
Aug 1989	1.77
Sep 1989	1.61
Oct 1989	1.55
Nov 1989	1.54
Dec 1989	1.46
Jan 1990	1.35
Feb 1990	1.35
Mar 1990	1.34
Apr 1990	1.28
May 1990	1.14
Jun 1990	1.16
Jul 1990	1.12
Aug 1990	1.04
Sep 1990	1.07
Oct 1990	1.32
Nov 1990	1.47
Dec 1990	1.47
Jan 1991	1.48
Feb 1991	1.33
Mar 1991	1.29
Apr 1991	1.29
May 1991	1.24
Jun 1991	1.22
Jul 1991	1.30
Aug 1991	1.23
Sep 1991	1.33
Oct 1991	1.31
Nov 1991	1.30
Dec 1991	1.47
Jan 1992	1.28
Feb 1992	1.24
Mar 1992	1.17
Apr 1992	1.18
May 1992	1.18
Jun 1992	1.17
Jul 1992	1.24
Aug 1992	1.38
Sep 1992	1.50
Oct 1992	1.39
Nov 1992	1.26
Dec 1992	1.33
Jan 1993	1.36
Feb 1993	1.40
Mar 1993	1.35
Apr 1993	1.39
May 1993	1.31
Jun 1993	1.30
Jul 1993	1.27
Aug 1993	1.36
Sep 1993	1.40
Oct 1993	1.34
Nov 1993	1.25
Dec 1993	1.23
Jan 1994	1.19
Feb 1994	1.10
Mar 1994	1.18
Apr 1994	1.19
May 1994	1.21
Jun 1994	1.17
Jul 1994	1.17
Aug 1994	1.15
Sep 1994	1.13
Oct 1994	1.15
Nov 1994	1.22
Dec 1994	1.25
Jan 1995	1.24
Feb 1995	1.21
Mar 1995	1.21
Apr 1995	1.18
May 1995	1.28
Jun 1995	1.31
Jul 1995	1.22
Aug 1995	1.24
Sep 1995	1.24
Oct 1995	1.31
Nov 1995	1.36
Dec 1995	1.37
Jan 1996	1.35
Feb 1996	1.27
Mar 1996	1.22
Apr 1996	1.23
May 1996	1.17
Jun 1996	1.24
Jul 1996	1.25
Aug 1996	1.22
Sep 1996	1.20
Oct 1996	1.25
Nov 1996	1.29
Dec 1996	1.22
Jan 1997	1.25
Feb 1997	1.18
Mar 1997	1.19
Apr 1997	1.19
May 1997	1.15
Jun 1997	1.13
Jul 1997	1.18
Aug 1997	1.12
Sep 1997	1.13
Oct 1997	1.27
Nov 1997	1.29
Dec 1997	1.28
Jan 1998	1.33
Feb 1998	1.30
Mar 1998	1.28
Apr 1998	1.19
May 1998	1.20
Jun 1998	1.30
Jul 1998	1.35
Aug 1998	1.98
Sep 1998	2.09
Oct 1998	2.23
Nov 1998	1.97
Dec 1998	1.93
Jan 1999	1.89
Feb 1999	1.76
Mar 1999	1.66
Apr 1999	1.61
May 1999	1.65
Jun 1999	1.69
Jul 1999	1.74
Aug 1999	1.96
Sep 1999	2.02
Oct 1999	2.09
Nov 1999	2.04
Dec 1999	1.86
Jan 2000	1.95
Feb 2000	2.12
Mar 2000	2.47
Apr 2000	2.63
May 2000	2.80
Jun 2000	2.81
Jul 2000	2.93
Aug 2000	3.05
Sep 2000	3.20
Oct 2000	3.64
Nov 2000	3.74
Dec 2000	3.76
Jan 2001	3.37
Feb 2001	3.29
Mar 2001	3.25
Apr 2001	3.17
May 2001	2.97
Jun 2001	3.08
Jul 2001	3.01
Aug 2001	3.00
Sep 2001	3.52
Oct 2001	3.42
Nov 2001	2.97
Dec 2001	2.88
Jan 2002	2.92
Feb 2002	2.96
Mar 2002	2.62
Apr 2002	2.66
May 2002	2.73
Jun 2002	3.28
Jul 2002	4.09
Aug 2002	3.97
Sep 2002	4.30
Oct 2002	4.35
Nov 2002	3.77
Dec 2002	3.68
Jan 2003	3.56
Feb 2003	3.45
Mar 2003	3.21
Apr 2003	2.73
May 2003	2.80
Jun 2003	2.54
Jul 2003	2.44
Aug 2003	2.40
Sep 2003	2.42
Oct 2003	2.10
Nov 2003	2.01
Dec 2003	1.92
Jan 2004	1.79
Feb 2004	1.90
Mar 2004	1.92
Apr 2004	1.75
May 2004	1.89
Jun 2004	1.80
Jul 2004	1.73
Aug 2004	1.85
Sep 2004	1.74
Oct 2004	1.73
Nov 2004	1.53
Dec 2004	1.46
Jan 2005	1.69
Feb 2005	1.55
Mar 2005	1.84
Apr 2005	2.12
May 2005	2.10
Jun 2005	1.95
Jul 2005	1.71
Aug 2005	1.80
Sep 2005	1.82
Oct 2005	1.87
Nov 2005	1.88
Dec 2005	1.94
Jan 2006	1.78
Feb 2006	1.73
Mar 2006	1.70
Apr 2006	1.63
May 2006	1.64
Jun 2006	1.75
Jul 2006	1.80
Aug 2006	1.80
Sep 2006	1.82
Oct 2006	1.71
Nov 2006	1.70
Dec 2006	1.59
Jan 2007	1.50
Feb 2007	1.53
Mar 2007	1.59
Apr 2007	1.56
May 2007	1.47
Jun 2007	1.63
Jul 2007	2.14
Aug 2007	2.29
Sep 2007	2.25
Oct 2007	2.19
Nov 2007	2.76
Dec 2007	2.85
Jan 2008	3.27
Feb 2008	3.54
Mar 2008	3.77
Apr 2008	3.27
May 2008	3.11
Jun 2008	3.44
Jul 2008	3.67
Aug 2008	3.78
Sep 2008	4.78
Oct 2008	7.14
Nov 2008	7.84
Dec 2008	7.66
Jan 2009	6.39
Feb 2009	6.20
Mar 2009	6.32
Apr 2009	5.42
May 2009	4.81
Jun 2009	4.17
Jul 2009	3.56
Aug 2009	3.34
Sep 2009	2.98
Oct 2009	2.86
Nov 2009	2.86
Dec 2009	2.42
Jan 2010	2.41
Feb 2010	2.45
Mar 2010	2.24
Apr 2010	2.13
May 2010	2.59
Jun 2010	2.72
Jul 2010	2.56
Aug 2010	2.71
Sep 2010	2.55
Oct 2010	2.42
Nov 2010	2.42
Dec 2010	2.23
Jan 2011	2.12
Feb 2011	2.01
Mar 2011	1.98
Apr 2011	1.99
May 2011	2.08
Jun 2011	2.16
Jul 2011	2.23
Aug 2011	2.83
Sep 2011	3.12
Oct 2011	2.81
Nov 2011	3.00
Dec 2011	2.89
Jan 2012	2.77
Feb 2012	2.52
Mar 2012	2.45
Apr 2012	2.54
May 2012	2.81
Jun 2012	2.76
Jul 2012	2.61
Aug 2012	2.54
Sep 2012	2.42
Oct 2012	2.26
Nov 2012	2.35
Dec 2012	2.25
Jan 2013	2.13
Feb 2013	2.17
Mar 2013	2.15
Apr 2013	2.09
May 2013	2.00
Jun 2013	2.18
Jul 2013	2.05
Aug 2013	2.02
Sep 2013	2.09
Oct 2013	2.00
Nov 2013	1.95
Dec 2013	1.80
Jan 2014	1.85
Feb 2014	1.76
Mar 2014	1.71
Apr 2014	1.65
May 2014	1.65
Jun 2014	1.62
Jul 2014	1.67
Aug 2014	1.67
Sep 2014	1.82
Oct 2014	1.92
Nov 2014	2.09
Dec 2014	2.18
Jan 2015	2.26
Feb 2015	2.01
Mar 2015	2.12
Apr 2015	2.09
May 2015	2.10
Jun 2015	2.22
Jul 2015	2.35
Aug 2015	2.47
Sep 2015	2.68
Oct 2015	2.45
Nov 2015	2.51
Dec 2015	2.72
Jan 2016	3.11
Feb 2016	3.13
Mar 2016	2.71
Apr 2016	2.44
May 2016	2.41
Jun 2016	2.51
Jul 2016	2.31
Aug 2016	2.12
Sep 2016	2.11
Oct 2016	1.91
Nov 2016	1.82
Dec 2016	1.69
Jan 2017	1.64
Feb 2017	1.60
Mar 2017	1.63
Apr 2017	1.62
May 2017	1.58
Jun 2017	1.56
Jul 2017	1.51
Aug 2017	1.62
Sep 2017	1.51
Oct 2017	1.44
Nov 2017	1.45
Dec 2017	1.41
Jan 2018	1.28
Feb 2018	1.38
Mar 2018	1.54
Apr 2018	1.45
May 2018	1.54
Jun 2018	1.62
Jul 2018	1.49
Aug 2018	1.52
Sep 2018	1.43
Oct 2018	1.58
Nov 2018	1.79
Dec 2018	2.08
Jan 2019	1.83
Feb 2019	1.65
Mar 2019	1.68
Apr 2019	1.58
May 2019	1.82
Jun 2019	1.69
Jul 2019	1.63
Aug 2019	1.81
Sep 2019	1.73
Oct 2019	1.71
Nov 2019	1.64
Dec 2019	1.49
Jan 2020	1.66
Feb 2020	1.99
Mar 2020	3.82
Apr 2020	2.89
May 2020	2.52
Jun 2020	2.33
Jul 2020	2.03
Aug 2020	1.94
Sep 2020	2.05
Oct 2020	1.93
Nov 2020	1.67
Dec 2020	1.49
Jan 2021	1.45
Feb 2021	1.39
Mar 2021	1.33
Apr 2021	1.27
May 2021	1.26
Jun 2021	1.18
Jul 2021	1.25
Aug 2021	1.24
Sep 2021	1.19
Oct 2021	1.18
Nov 2021	1.33
Dec 2021	1.25
Jan 2022	1.36
Feb 2022	1.53
Mar 2022	1.42
Apr 2022	1.59
May 2022	1.59
Jun 2022	1.94
Jul 2022	1.73
Aug 2022	1.72
Sep 2022	1.88
Oct 2022	1.68
Nov 2022	1.58
Dec 2022	1.53
Jan 2023	1.42
Feb 2023	1.49
Mar 2023	1.54
Apr 2023	1.54
May 2023	1.58
Jun 2023	1.42
Jul 2023	1.31
Aug 2023	1.35
Sep 2023	1.34
Oct 2023	1.43
Nov 2023	1.20
Dec 2023	1.15
Jan 2024	1.11
Feb 2024	1.11
Mar 2024	1.06
Apr 2024	1.02
May 2024	0.99
Jun 2024	1.10
Jul 2024	1.08
Aug 2024	1.10
Sep 2024	1.06
Oct 2024	0.99
Nov 2024	0.95
Dec 2024	0.94
Jan 2025	0.90
Feb 2025	1.00
Mar 2025	1.12
Apr 2025	1.27
May 2025	1.03
Jun 2025	0.99
Jul 2025	0.93
Aug 2025	0.94
Sep 2025	0.89
Oct 2025	0.94
Nov 2025	0.95
Dec 2025	0.91
Jan 2026	0.86
Feb 2026	0.97
Mar 2026	1.03
Apr 2026	0.92
May 2026	0.83
Jun 2026	0.86
Jul 2026	0.84
Aug 2026	0.88
Sep 2026	0.93

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) updated series.

Note: Scored from 1983. The excess bond premium (0.75) and the Baa minus 10-yr spread (0.59) were tested and scored below it.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 9

Commercial and Industrial Loans: Growth

(all commercial banks, seasonally adjusted, 12-month percent change, monthly)

Triggers: bank lending to business has re-accelerated to 10% y/y

C&I loans, y/y (Sep 2026 = 10.0%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Commercial and Industrial Loans: Growth (data)
Date	C&I loans, y/y
Jan 1948	27.6%
Feb 1948	26.4%
Mar 1948	25.3%
Apr 1948	24.1%
May 1948	23.0%
Jun 1948	21.9%
Jul 1948	19.5%
Aug 1948	16.3%
Sep 1948	13.4%
Oct 1948	10.8%
Nov 1948	8.2%
Dec 1948	5.8%
Jan 1949	3.6%
Feb 1949	1.5%
Mar 1949	-0.6%
Apr 1949	-2.8%
May 1949	-5.0%
Jun 1949	-7.1%
Jul 1949	-8.2%
Aug 1949	-8.5%
Sep 1949	-8.7%
Oct 1949	-9.0%
Nov 1949	-9.2%
Dec 1949	-9.6%
Jan 1950	-8.5%
Feb 1950	-6.7%
Mar 1950	-4.8%
Apr 1950	-2.8%
May 1950	-0.7%
Jun 1950	1.8%
Jul 1950	5.3%
Aug 1950	9.9%
Sep 1950	14.3%
Oct 1950	18.7%
Nov 1950	23.1%
Dec 1950	27.3%
Jan 1951	30.1%
Feb 1951	31.8%
Mar 1951	33.6%
Apr 1951	35.4%
May 1951	37.2%
Jun 1951	39.0%
Jul 1951	37.1%
Aug 1951	33.1%
Sep 1951	29.5%
Oct 1951	26.3%
Nov 1951	23.3%
Dec 1951	21.1%
Jan 1952	24.7%
Feb 1952	23.3%
Mar 1952	20.1%
Apr 1952	15.9%
May 1952	12.2%
Jun 1952	10.2%
Jul 1952	9.4%
Aug 1952	9.9%
Sep 1952	10.8%
Oct 1952	12.0%
Nov 1952	13.1%
Dec 1952	10.8%
Jan 1953	6.0%
Feb 1953	5.3%
Mar 1953	5.9%
Apr 1953	7.6%
May 1953	8.9%
Jun 1953	7.7%
Jul 1953	7.4%
Aug 1953	7.2%
Sep 1953	5.8%
Oct 1953	4.0%
Nov 1953	1.8%
Dec 1953	-0.3%
Jan 1954	-1.9%
Feb 1954	-2.8%
Mar 1954	-3.3%
Apr 1954	-4.3%
May 1954	-5.1%
Jun 1954	-5.2%
Jul 1954	-5.6%
Aug 1954	-6.5%
Sep 1954	-6.4%
Oct 1954	-5.9%
Nov 1954	-4.9%
Dec 1954	-2.7%
Jan 1955	-0.9%
Feb 1955	0.2%
Mar 1955	1.1%
Apr 1955	2.5%
May 1955	4.6%
Jun 1955	7.1%
Jul 1955	9.3%
Aug 1955	11.2%
Sep 1955	12.8%
Oct 1955	14.1%
Nov 1955	16.5%
Dec 1955	18.5%
Jan 1956	19.2%
Feb 1956	20.3%
Mar 1956	23.0%
Apr 1956	25.3%
May 1956	25.0%
Jun 1956	25.5%
Jul 1956	25.3%
Aug 1956	24.5%
Sep 1956	24.0%
Oct 1956	23.8%
Nov 1956	22.0%
Dec 1956	21.5%
Jan 1957	20.3%
Feb 1957	18.2%
Mar 1957	15.8%
Apr 1957	14.0%
May 1957	13.5%
Jun 1957	12.5%
Jul 1957	11.9%
Aug 1957	11.3%
Sep 1957	9.9%
Oct 1957	7.9%
Nov 1957	6.4%
Dec 1957	4.3%
Jan 1958	6.2%
Feb 1958	6.6%
Mar 1958	5.2%
Apr 1958	3.6%
May 1958	2.4%
Jun 1958	0.6%
Jul 1958	-0.6%
Aug 1958	-0.7%
Sep 1958	-0.1%
Oct 1958	1.0%
Nov 1958	1.7%
Dec 1958	3.1%
Jan 1959	1.5%
Feb 1959	1.0%
Mar 1959	1.1%
Apr 1959	2.9%
May 1959	5.4%
Jun 1959	8.4%
Jul 1959	10.2%
Aug 1959	10.8%
Sep 1959	10.8%
Oct 1959	10.5%
Nov 1959	10.8%
Dec 1959	12.4%
Jan 1960	12.5%
Feb 1960	13.0%
Mar 1960	13.9%
Apr 1960	13.9%
May 1960	12.6%
Jun 1960	11.4%
Jul 1960	9.9%
Aug 1960	8.5%
Sep 1960	8.2%
Oct 1960	8.1%
Nov 1960	7.7%
Dec 1960	7.2%
Jan 1961	6.1%
Feb 1961	5.4%
Mar 1961	5.1%
Apr 1961	4.2%
May 1961	3.0%
Jun 1961	2.6%
Jul 1961	2.9%
Aug 1961	3.2%
Sep 1961	3.3%
Oct 1961	3.5%
Nov 1961	3.5%
Dec 1961	4.0%
Jan 1962	4.6%
Feb 1962	4.6%
Mar 1962	4.9%
Apr 1962	5.5%
May 1962	6.4%
Jun 1962	7.3%
Jul 1962	7.4%
Aug 1962	7.7%
Sep 1962	8.4%
Oct 1962	9.0%
Nov 1962	9.4%
Dec 1962	8.3%
Jan 1963	8.4%
Feb 1963	9.0%
Mar 1963	8.8%
Apr 1963	8.6%
May 1963	8.5%
Jun 1963	8.1%
Jul 1963	8.2%
Aug 1963	7.7%
Sep 1963	7.4%
Oct 1963	7.6%
Nov 1963	8.6%
Dec 1963	10.0%
Jan 1964	10.0%
Feb 1964	9.9%
Mar 1964	9.9%
Apr 1964	10.0%
May 1964	10.5%
Jun 1964	10.2%
Jul 1964	10.6%
Aug 1964	11.4%
Sep 1964	11.9%
Oct 1964	11.7%
Nov 1964	11.0%
Dec 1964	11.8%
Jan 1965	13.0%
Feb 1965	14.3%
Mar 1965	16.0%
Apr 1965	16.7%
May 1965	17.1%
Jun 1965	18.2%
Jul 1965	18.6%
Aug 1965	18.8%
Sep 1965	19.0%
Oct 1965	19.1%
Nov 1965	19.2%
Dec 1965	18.5%
Jan 1966	18.1%
Feb 1966	17.7%
Mar 1966	17.0%
Apr 1966	16.5%
May 1966	16.5%
Jun 1966	17.5%
Jul 1966	18.3%
Aug 1966	17.6%
Sep 1966	16.7%
Oct 1966	16.3%
Nov 1966	15.7%
Dec 1966	14.2%
Jan 1967	13.3%
Feb 1967	12.6%
Mar 1967	12.0%
Apr 1967	12.2%
May 1967	11.3%
Jun 1967	9.7%
Jul 1967	9.1%
Aug 1967	8.5%
Sep 1967	8.1%
Oct 1967	7.8%
Nov 1967	7.9%
Dec 1967	9.1%
Jan 1968	9.2%
Feb 1968	8.8%
Mar 1968	8.7%
Apr 1968	8.9%
May 1968	9.0%
Jun 1968	8.8%
Jul 1968	8.7%
Aug 1968	9.3%
Sep 1968	9.7%
Oct 1968	10.4%
Nov 1968	11.7%
Dec 1968	11.7%
Jan 1969	12.2%
Feb 1969	13.5%
Mar 1969	13.9%
Apr 1969	14.0%
May 1969	14.6%
Jun 1969	14.0%
Jul 1969	13.2%
Aug 1969	13.2%
Sep 1969	13.0%
Oct 1969	12.4%
Nov 1969	11.3%
Dec 1969	10.8%
Jan 1970	9.4%
Feb 1970	7.5%
Mar 1970	6.2%
Apr 1970	4.9%
May 1970	4.0%
Jun 1970	4.2%
Jul 1970	4.5%
Aug 1970	5.1%
Sep 1970	5.5%
Oct 1970	5.2%
Nov 1970	4.7%
Dec 1970	4.5%
Jan 1971	4.9%
Feb 1971	5.9%
Mar 1971	6.2%
Apr 1971	6.1%
May 1971	6.6%
Jun 1971	6.8%
Jul 1971	6.2%
Aug 1971	6.6%
Sep 1971	6.5%
Oct 1971	6.8%
Nov 1971	6.9%
Dec 1971	5.8%
Jan 1972	5.9%
Feb 1972	6.3%
Mar 1972	6.9%
Apr 1972	8.1%
May 1972	8.5%
Jun 1972	8.4%
Jul 1972	9.0%
Aug 1972	8.9%
Sep 1972	8.8%
Oct 1972	10.1%
Nov 1972	11.7%
Dec 1972	13.0%
Jan 1973	14.6%
Feb 1973	18.4%
Mar 1973	21.1%
Apr 1973	21.7%
May 1973	22.2%
Jun 1973	23.5%
Jul 1973	24.6%
Aug 1973	25.4%
Sep 1973	24.9%
Oct 1973	23.3%
Nov 1973	21.5%
Dec 1973	21.1%
Jan 1974	20.4%
Feb 1974	17.0%
Mar 1974	16.5%
Apr 1974	18.6%
May 1974	18.4%
Jun 1974	17.8%
Jul 1974	18.4%
Aug 1974	17.9%
Sep 1974	18.6%
Oct 1974	18.9%
Nov 1974	19.1%
Dec 1974	18.6%
Jan 1975	17.5%
Feb 1975	15.5%
Mar 1975	11.4%
Apr 1975	7.1%
May 1975	4.8%
Jun 1975	2.5%
Jul 1975	-0.2%
Aug 1975	-1.9%
Sep 1975	-2.8%
Oct 1975	-3.4%
Nov 1975	-4.1%
Dec 1975	-4.1%
Jan 1976	-4.7%
Feb 1976	-4.4%
Mar 1976	-4.6%
Apr 1976	-5.3%
May 1976	-4.1%
Jun 1976	-3.0%
Jul 1976	-2.5%
Aug 1976	-1.7%
Sep 1976	-0.9%
Oct 1976	-0.2%
Nov 1976	0.7%
Dec 1976	1.0%
Jan 1977	1.7%
Feb 1977	2.9%
Mar 1977	5.4%
Apr 1977	7.2%
May 1977	7.5%
Jun 1977	8.1%
Jul 1977	9.0%
Aug 1977	9.8%
Sep 1977	9.8%
Oct 1977	10.3%
Nov 1977	10.4%
Dec 1977	10.5%
Jan 1978	11.6%
Feb 1978	12.2%
Mar 1978	12.9%
Apr 1978	14.0%
May 1978	14.9%
Jun 1978	15.5%
Jul 1978	15.9%
Aug 1978	15.6%
Sep 1978	15.8%
Oct 1978	15.7%
Nov 1978	16.2%
Dec 1978	15.9%
Jan 1979	15.7%
Feb 1979	16.0%
Mar 1979	16.1%
Apr 1979	16.9%
May 1979	17.4%
Jun 1979	17.9%
Jul 1979	18.4%
Aug 1979	18.5%
Sep 1979	19.0%
Oct 1979	18.6%
Nov 1979	17.6%
Dec 1979	17.9%
Jan 1980	17.6%
Feb 1980	17.1%
Mar 1980	16.7%
Apr 1980	14.5%
May 1980	11.3%
Jun 1980	8.9%
Jul 1980	7.5%
Aug 1980	7.7%
Sep 1980	7.4%
Oct 1980	8.6%
Nov 1980	10.9%
Dec 1980	11.6%
Jan 1981	10.9%
Feb 1981	9.6%
Mar 1981	8.6%
Apr 1981	9.6%
May 1981	12.6%
Jun 1981	14.3%
Jul 1981	15.2%
Aug 1981	15.5%
Sep 1981	14.7%
Oct 1981	13.7%
Nov 1981	12.4%
Dec 1981	12.3%
Jan 1982	13.6%
Feb 1982	15.2%
Mar 1982	15.8%
Apr 1982	16.5%
May 1982	16.0%
Jun 1982	16.0%
Jul 1982	15.7%
Aug 1982	14.7%
Sep 1982	15.7%
Oct 1982	15.0%
Nov 1982	13.4%
Dec 1982	11.9%
Jan 1983	10.8%
Feb 1983	9.0%
Mar 1983	8.2%
Apr 1983	5.8%
May 1983	4.1%
Jun 1983	3.5%
Jul 1983	3.6%
Aug 1983	4.1%
Sep 1983	2.9%
Oct 1983	3.4%
Nov 1983	4.5%
Dec 1983	5.6%
Jan 1984	5.7%
Feb 1984	7.7%
Mar 1984	9.4%
Apr 1984	11.6%
May 1984	14.0%
Jun 1984	14.5%
Jul 1984	14.6%
Aug 1984	14.2%
Sep 1984	14.8%
Oct 1984	14.9%
Nov 1984	15.0%
Dec 1984	14.4%
Jan 1985	13.8%
Feb 1985	12.4%
Mar 1985	11.4%
Apr 1985	9.3%
May 1985	7.7%
Jun 1985	7.0%
Jul 1985	6.8%
Aug 1985	6.8%
Sep 1985	7.0%
Oct 1985	5.8%
Nov 1985	5.6%
Dec 1985	5.4%
Jan 1986	5.8%
Feb 1986	5.3%
Mar 1986	5.2%
Apr 1986	6.0%
May 1986	5.6%
Jun 1986	6.0%
Jul 1986	5.3%
Aug 1986	5.1%
Sep 1986	4.7%
Oct 1986	4.9%
Nov 1986	5.4%
Dec 1986	8.1%
Jan 1987	9.7%
Feb 1987	9.2%
Mar 1987	8.5%
Apr 1987	8.3%
May 1987	8.6%
Jun 1987	8.5%
Jul 1987	7.9%
Aug 1987	7.6%
Sep 1987	8.4%
Oct 1987	8.8%
Nov 1987	7.4%
Dec 1987	4.8%
Jan 1988	3.3%
Feb 1988	3.9%
Mar 1988	4.2%
Apr 1988	5.1%
May 1988	5.9%
Jun 1988	6.2%
Jul 1988	7.3%
Aug 1988	7.3%
Sep 1988	6.1%
Oct 1988	6.4%
Nov 1988	6.9%
Dec 1988	7.0%
Jan 1989	6.9%
Feb 1989	8.6%
Mar 1989	7.9%
Apr 1989	7.2%
May 1989	6.9%
Jun 1989	6.0%
Jul 1989	6.2%
Aug 1989	6.9%
Sep 1989	7.0%
Oct 1989	6.7%
Nov 1989	6.4%
Dec 1989	5.4%
Jan 1990	4.9%
Feb 1990	3.1%
Mar 1990	3.5%
Apr 1990	3.5%
May 1990	2.5%
Jun 1990	2.8%
Jul 1990	1.4%
Aug 1990	0.8%
Sep 1990	0.4%
Oct 1990	-0.3%
Nov 1990	-0.1%
Dec 1990	0.6%
Jan 1991	0.1%
Feb 1991	-0.1%
Mar 1991	-0.5%
Apr 1991	-1.5%
May 1991	-1.9%
Jun 1991	-2.4%
Jul 1991	-2.6%
Aug 1991	-3.4%
Sep 1991	-3.0%
Oct 1991	-2.6%
Nov 1991	-3.3%
Dec 1991	-3.6%
Jan 1992	-3.5%
Feb 1992	-4.1%
Mar 1992	-4.4%
Apr 1992	-4.3%
May 1992	-4.1%
Jun 1992	-4.0%
Jul 1992	-3.8%
Aug 1992	-3.4%
Sep 1992	-3.6%
Oct 1992	-3.9%
Nov 1992	-3.5%
Dec 1992	-3.5%
Jan 1993	-3.0%
Feb 1993	-2.7%
Mar 1993	-2.6%
Apr 1993	-3.1%
May 1993	-2.4%
Jun 1993	-1.8%
Jul 1993	-1.9%
Aug 1993	-1.6%
Sep 1993	-2.2%
Oct 1993	-2.2%
Nov 1993	-2.2%
Dec 1993	-2.1%
Jan 1994	-1.4%
Feb 1994	-0.9%
Mar 1994	0.6%
Apr 1994	2.5%
May 1994	2.8%
Jun 1994	3.2%
Jul 1994	4.9%
Aug 1994	5.9%
Sep 1994	6.8%
Oct 1994	8.2%
Nov 1994	9.3%
Dec 1994	10.3%
Jan 1995	11.4%
Feb 1995	13.3%
Mar 1995	13.2%
Apr 1995	12.8%
May 1995	13.4%
Jun 1995	13.4%
Jul 1995	13.3%
Aug 1995	13.0%
Sep 1995	13.0%
Oct 1995	11.8%
Nov 1995	11.6%
Dec 1995	11.1%
Jan 1996	10.3%
Feb 1996	8.6%
Mar 1996	8.0%
Apr 1996	8.1%
May 1996	7.3%
Jun 1996	7.4%
Jul 1996	6.7%
Aug 1996	6.4%
Sep 1996	7.4%
Oct 1996	8.5%
Nov 1996	8.3%
Dec 1996	8.9%
Jan 1997	8.4%
Feb 1997	9.0%
Mar 1997	9.4%
Apr 1997	9.8%
May 1997	9.9%
Jun 1997	9.7%
Jul 1997	9.6%
Aug 1997	10.0%
Sep 1997	9.4%
Oct 1997	8.9%
Nov 1997	8.8%
Dec 1997	8.5%
Jan 1998	9.3%
Feb 1998	9.3%
Mar 1998	8.9%
Apr 1998	7.5%
May 1998	8.2%
Jun 1998	9.6%
Jul 1998	9.9%
Aug 1998	9.9%
Sep 1998	9.9%
Oct 1998	11.7%
Nov 1998	12.2%
Dec 1998	11.1%
Jan 1999	9.6%
Feb 1999	8.5%
Mar 1999	9.1%
Apr 1999	9.6%
May 1999	7.6%
Jun 1999	6.6%
Jul 1999	6.8%
Aug 1999	7.2%
Sep 1999	6.9%
Oct 1999	5.0%
Nov 1999	6.2%
Dec 1999	6.6%
Jan 2000	7.0%
Feb 2000	8.6%
Mar 2000	8.7%
Apr 2000	9.3%
May 2000	11.6%
Jun 2000	11.9%
Jul 2000	11.5%
Aug 2000	10.6%
Sep 2000	10.0%
Oct 2000	10.2%
Nov 2000	8.0%
Dec 2000	8.4%
Jan 2001	9.0%
Feb 2001	7.6%
Mar 2001	6.4%
Apr 2001	5.2%
May 2001	3.1%
Jun 2001	0.9%
Jul 2001	-0.4%
Aug 2001	-1.5%
Sep 2001	-1.3%
Oct 2001	-3.1%
Nov 2001	-4.3%
Dec 2001	-5.8%
Jan 2002	-7.5%
Feb 2002	-7.1%
Mar 2002	-7.3%
Apr 2002	-8.2%
May 2002	-8.6%
Jun 2002	-8.2%
Jul 2002	-8.2%
Aug 2002	-7.9%
Sep 2002	-8.8%
Oct 2002	-7.8%
Nov 2002	-7.1%
Dec 2002	-6.2%
Jan 2003	-6.1%
Feb 2003	-7.4%
Mar 2003	-7.3%
Apr 2003	-6.5%
May 2003	-6.8%
Jun 2003	-6.8%
Jul 2003	-5.6%
Aug 2003	-6.5%
Sep 2003	-6.9%
Oct 2003	-7.9%
Nov 2003	-8.2%
Dec 2003	-7.7%
Jan 2004	-7.8%
Feb 2004	-7.1%
Mar 2004	-7.3%
Apr 2004	-7.6%
May 2004	-6.6%
Jun 2004	-5.3%
Jul 2004	-4.7%
Aug 2004	-2.9%
Sep 2004	-1.5%
Oct 2004	0.3%
Nov 2004	1.8%
Dec 2004	2.6%
Jan 2005	5.1%
Feb 2005	6.6%
Mar 2005	8.8%
Apr 2005	10.9%
May 2005	12.3%
Jun 2005	12.2%
Jul 2005	12.7%
Aug 2005	12.8%
Sep 2005	12.9%
Oct 2005	14.1%
Nov 2005	13.9%
Dec 2005	14.3%
Jan 2006	13.8%
Feb 2006	13.6%
Mar 2006	13.0%
Apr 2006	13.2%
May 2006	13.9%
Jun 2006	14.7%
Jul 2006	14.3%
Aug 2006	15.7%
Sep 2006	15.0%
Oct 2006	14.5%
Nov 2006	14.4%
Dec 2006	14.1%
Jan 2007	13.7%
Feb 2007	13.8%
Mar 2007	13.8%
Apr 2007	13.0%
May 2007	12.8%
Jun 2007	13.0%
Jul 2007	13.4%
Aug 2007	13.5%
Sep 2007	17.3%
Oct 2007	18.4%
Nov 2007	19.1%
Dec 2007	19.9%
Jan 2008	20.8%
Feb 2008	20.3%
Mar 2008	21.0%
Apr 2008	21.5%
May 2008	19.8%
Jun 2008	18.5%
Jul 2008	18.0%
Aug 2008	15.8%
Sep 2008	13.4%
Oct 2008	15.4%
Nov 2008	13.0%
Dec 2008	10.0%
Jan 2009	7.2%
Feb 2009	5.8%
Mar 2009	2.8%
Apr 2009	0.1%
May 2009	-1.5%
Jun 2009	-4.1%
Jul 2009	-7.7%
Aug 2009	-9.9%
Sep 2009	-12.6%
Oct 2009	-17.6%
Nov 2009	-18.1%
Dec 2009	-18.8%
Jan 2010	-19.8%
Feb 2010	-20.2%
Mar 2010	-19.9%
Apr 2010	-19.0%
May 2010	-18.6%
Jun 2010	-17.1%
Jul 2010	-14.8%
Aug 2010	-12.9%
Sep 2010	-11.3%
Oct 2010	-9.4%
Nov 2010	-8.0%
Dec 2010	-5.8%
Jan 2011	-3.4%
Feb 2011	-1.9%
Mar 2011	-0.3%
Apr 2011	0.6%
May 2011	2.7%
Jun 2011	3.7%
Jul 2011	4.6%
Aug 2011	6.4%
Sep 2011	7.1%
Oct 2011	8.0%
Nov 2011	8.9%
Dec 2011	9.3%
Jan 2012	10.5%
Feb 2012	12.1%
Mar 2012	11.9%
Apr 2012	12.7%
May 2012	12.2%
Jun 2012	13.3%
Jul 2012	13.6%
Aug 2012	12.9%
Sep 2012	13.0%
Oct 2012	13.2%
Nov 2012	12.7%
Dec 2012	13.1%
Jan 2013	12.4%
Feb 2013	10.9%
Mar 2013	11.0%
Apr 2013	10.1%
May 2013	9.5%
Jun 2013	8.9%
Jul 2013	8.4%
Aug 2013	7.5%
Sep 2013	7.4%
Oct 2013	6.9%
Nov 2013	6.9%
Dec 2013	6.8%
Jan 2014	6.8%
Feb 2014	8.6%
Mar 2014	8.9%
Apr 2014	9.5%
May 2014	10.1%
Jun 2014	10.2%
Jul 2014	10.6%
Aug 2014	11.7%
Sep 2014	12.1%
Oct 2014	11.7%
Nov 2014	12.4%
Dec 2014	12.6%
Jan 2015	12.9%
Feb 2015	11.6%
Mar 2015	12.3%
Apr 2015	11.9%
May 2015	12.0%
Jun 2015	12.1%
Jul 2015	11.5%
Aug 2015	11.2%
Sep 2015	11.0%
Oct 2015	11.5%
Nov 2015	11.1%
Dec 2015	10.1%
Jan 2016	9.6%
Feb 2016	9.9%
Mar 2016	10.0%
Apr 2016	10.0%
May 2016	9.9%
Jun 2016	9.1%
Jul 2016	8.9%
Aug 2016	7.8%
Sep 2016	8.1%
Oct 2016	8.1%
Nov 2016	7.4%
Dec 2016	6.7%
Jan 2017	6.0%
Feb 2017	4.8%
Mar 2017	2.3%
Apr 2017	1.7%
May 2017	1.2%
Jun 2017	1.1%
Jul 2017	0.9%
Aug 2017	1.6%
Sep 2017	1.6%
Oct 2017	1.3%
Nov 2017	0.8%
Dec 2017	1.0%
Jan 2018	1.3%
Feb 2018	1.4%
Mar 2018	2.8%
Apr 2018	4.8%
May 2018	4.9%
Jun 2018	5.7%
Jul 2018	6.2%
Aug 2018	6.0%
Sep 2018	5.8%
Oct 2018	6.5%
Nov 2018	8.0%
Dec 2018	9.4%
Jan 2019	10.2%
Feb 2019	10.4%
Mar 2019	10.1%
Apr 2019	7.5%
May 2019	7.4%
Jun 2019	6.7%
Jul 2019	6.4%
Aug 2019	7.0%
Sep 2019	6.5%
Oct 2019	5.3%
Nov 2019	4.2%
Dec 2019	2.3%
Jan 2020	1.2%
Feb 2020	0.8%
Mar 2020	9.7%
Apr 2020	25.4%
May 2020	30.1%
Jun 2020	25.1%
Jul 2020	21.8%
Aug 2020	19.1%
Sep 2020	16.4%
Oct 2020	13.8%
Nov 2020	11.3%
Dec 2020	9.9%
Jan 2021	8.8%
Feb 2021	10.0%
Mar 2021	0.9%
Apr 2021	-12.5%
May 2021	-16.2%
Jun 2021	-15.3%
Jul 2021	-14.2%
Aug 2021	-13.7%
Sep 2021	-12.4%
Oct 2021	-10.3%
Nov 2021	-7.6%
Dec 2021	-4.5%
Jan 2022	-2.9%
Feb 2022	-3.4%
Mar 2022	-1.9%
Apr 2022	0.3%
May 2022	2.5%
Jun 2022	7.6%
Jul 2022	10.1%
Aug 2022	12.2%
Sep 2022	13.7%
Oct 2022	14.5%
Nov 2022	14.6%
Dec 2022	13.2%
Jan 2023	13.1%
Feb 2023	12.3%
Mar 2023	10.2%
Apr 2023	7.9%
May 2023	5.9%
Jun 2023	3.3%
Jul 2023	2.0%
Aug 2023	1.3%
Sep 2023	0.5%
Oct 2023	0.0%
Nov 2023	-0.9%
Dec 2023	-1.3%
Jan 2024	-1.9%
Feb 2024	-1.5%
Mar 2024	-1.7%
Apr 2024	-0.9%
May 2024	-0.4%
Jun 2024	0.3%
Jul 2024	0.1%
Aug 2024	0.2%
Sep 2024	0.6%
Oct 2024	0.5%
Nov 2024	0.9%
Dec 2024	0.2%
Jan 2025	-3.4%
Feb 2025	-3.4%
Mar 2025	-2.8%
Apr 2025	-3.1%
May 2025	-3.0%
Jun 2025	-3.0%
Jul 2025	-3.2%
Aug 2025	-3.0%
Sep 2025	-3.1%
Oct 2025	-3.4%
Nov 2025	-3.3%
Dec 2025	-2.3%
Jan 2026	2.5%
Feb 2026	4.2%
Mar 2026	5.6%
Apr 2026	7.5%
May 2026	8.0%
Jun 2026	8.2%
Jul 2026	8.3%
Aug 2026	9.5%
Sep 2026	10.0%

Source: Federal Reserve H.8 via FRED BUSLOANS; YRI calculations.

Note: A one-month drop of 3.7% in January 2025 is carried as published, so growth rates through December 2025 include that step.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 10

Household Debt to GDP: One-Year Change

(household and nonprofit debt securities and loans, % of nominal GDP, change over four quarters, percentage points, quarterly)

Triggers: households are still deleveraging; debt/GDP fell 1.5 points over the past year, near the bottom of its history

4-qtr change (Q2 2026 = -1.53pp)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Household Debt to GDP: One-Year Change (data)
Date	4-qtr change
Q1 1956	+2.68pp
Q2 1956	+2.29pp
Q3 1956	+2.01pp
Q4 1956	+1.58pp
Q1 1957	+0.94pp
Q2 1957	+1.14pp
Q3 1957	+0.88pp
Q4 1957	+1.53pp
Q1 1958	+2.34pp
Q2 1958	+1.84pp
Q3 1958	+1.41pp
Q4 1958	+0.61pp
Q1 1959	-0.12pp
Q2 1959	-0.02pp
Q3 1959	+1.31pp
Q4 1959	+2.17pp
Q1 1960	+1.67pp
Q2 1960	+2.53pp
Q3 1960	+2.05pp
Q4 1960	+2.43pp
Q1 1961	+3.04pp
Q2 1961	+1.99pp
Q3 1961	+1.36pp
Q4 1961	+0.27pp
Q1 1962	-0.26pp
Q2 1962	+0.18pp
Q3 1962	+0.75pp
Q4 1962	+1.45pp
Q1 1963	+1.98pp
Q2 1963	+2.17pp
Q3 1963	+1.92pp
Q4 1963	+1.65pp
Q1 1964	+1.35pp
Q2 1964	+1.23pp
Q3 1964	+1.20pp
Q4 1964	+1.41pp
Q1 1965	+1.06pp
Q2 1965	+0.76pp
Q3 1965	+0.39pp
Q4 1965	-0.67pp
Q1 1966	-0.83pp
Q2 1966	-0.67pp
Q3 1966	-0.75pp
Q4 1966	-0.60pp
Q1 1967	-0.26pp
Q2 1967	-0.33pp
Q3 1967	-0.15pp
Q4 1967	+1.43pp
Q1 1968	-0.31pp
Q2 1968	-0.69pp
Q3 1968	-0.53pp
Q4 1968	-1.56pp
Q1 1969	-0.48pp
Q2 1969	-0.22pp
Q3 1969	-0.59pp
Q4 1969	-0.42pp
Q1 1970	-0.32pp
Q2 1970	-0.91pp
Q3 1970	-0.78pp
Q4 1970	-0.75pp
Q1 1971	-1.02pp
Q2 1971	-0.56pp
Q3 1971	-0.18pp
Q4 1971	+0.04pp
Q1 1972	+0.73pp
Q2 1972	+0.68pp
Q3 1972	+0.74pp
Q4 1972	+0.03pp
Q1 1973	+0.23pp
Q2 1973	+0.11pp
Q3 1973	+0.43pp
Q4 1973	+0.14pp
Q1 1974	+0.66pp
Q2 1974	+0.65pp
Q3 1974	+0.22pp
Q4 1974	+0.10pp
Q1 1975	-0.20pp
Q2 1975	-0.53pp
Q3 1975	-1.17pp
Q4 1975	-0.80pp
Q1 1976	-1.16pp
Q2 1976	-0.33pp
Q3 1976	+0.50pp
Q4 1976	+0.81pp
Q1 1977	+1.32pp
Q2 1977	+1.12pp
Q3 1977	+1.11pp
Q4 1977	+1.42pp
Q1 1978	+2.04pp
Q2 1978	+1.23pp
Q3 1978	+1.51pp
Q4 1978	+0.88pp
Q1 1979	+0.79pp
Q2 1979	+1.85pp
Q3 1979	+1.61pp
Q4 1979	+2.07pp
Q1 1980	+1.67pp
Q2 1980	+1.58pp
Q3 1980	+1.29pp
Q4 1980	-0.04pp
Q1 1981	-1.81pp
Q2 1981	-1.70pp
Q3 1981	-2.39pp
Q4 1981	-1.04pp
Q1 1982	+1.02pp
Q2 1982	+0.32pp
Q3 1982	+0.59pp
Q4 1982	+0.43pp
Q1 1983	-0.89pp
Q2 1983	-0.78pp
Q3 1983	-0.45pp
Q4 1983	-0.59pp
Q1 1984	+0.10pp
Q2 1984	+0.47pp
Q3 1984	+0.79pp
Q4 1984	+1.30pp
Q1 1985	+2.74pp
Q2 1985	+3.25pp
Q3 1985	+3.79pp
Q4 1985	+4.75pp
Q1 1986	+3.74pp
Q2 1986	+3.71pp
Q3 1986	+3.88pp
Q4 1986	+3.23pp
Q1 1987	+2.74pp
Q2 1987	+2.72pp
Q3 1987	+2.24pp
Q4 1987	+0.63pp
Q1 1988	+1.44pp
Q2 1988	+0.86pp
Q3 1988	+0.71pp
Q4 1988	+1.17pp
Q1 1989	+0.41pp
Q2 1989	+0.58pp
Q3 1989	+0.68pp
Q4 1989	+1.46pp
Q1 1990	+1.79pp
Q2 1990	+1.66pp
Q3 1990	+1.56pp
Q4 1990	+1.81pp
Q1 1991	+2.09pp
Q2 1991	+1.91pp
Q3 1991	+1.31pp
Q4 1991	+0.82pp
Q1 1992	+0.06pp
Q2 1992	-0.38pp
Q3 1992	-0.19pp
Q4 1992	-0.83pp
Q1 1993	-0.50pp
Q2 1993	+0.13pp
Q3 1993	+0.60pp
Q4 1993	+0.67pp
Q1 1994	+0.63pp
Q2 1994	+0.41pp
Q3 1994	+0.30pp
Q4 1994	+0.72pp
Q1 1995	+1.01pp
Q2 1995	+1.64pp
Q3 1995	+1.74pp
Q4 1995	+1.62pp
Q1 1996	+1.97pp
Q2 1996	+1.18pp
Q3 1996	+0.89pp
Q4 1996	+0.64pp
Q1 1997	+0.03pp
Q2 1997	0.00pp
Q3 1997	-0.03pp
Q4 1997	+0.16pp
Q1 1998	+0.49pp
Q2 1998	+1.34pp
Q3 1998	+1.18pp
Q4 1998	+1.22pp
Q1 1999	+1.40pp
Q2 1999	+1.47pp
Q3 1999	+1.87pp
Q4 1999	+1.73pp
Q1 2000	+2.01pp
Q2 2000	+0.93pp
Q3 2000	+1.78pp
Q4 2000	+1.97pp
Q1 2001	+1.95pp
Q2 2001	+3.21pp
Q3 2001	+4.34pp
Q4 2001	+4.57pp
Q1 2002	+4.57pp
Q2 2002	+4.37pp
Q3 2002	+3.26pp
Q4 2002	+4.34pp
Q1 2003	+4.63pp
Q2 2003	+6.16pp
Q3 2003	+5.24pp
Q4 2003	+4.45pp
Q1 2004	+4.17pp
Q2 2004	+3.10pp
Q3 2004	+3.57pp
Q4 2004	+4.04pp
Q1 2005	+3.33pp
Q2 2005	+3.64pp
Q3 2005	+3.85pp
Q4 2005	+3.61pp
Q1 2006	+4.46pp
Q2 2006	+4.59pp
Q3 2006	+4.94pp
Q4 2006	+4.61pp
Q1 2007	+3.76pp
Q2 2007	+3.10pp
Q3 2007	+2.15pp
Q4 2007	+1.73pp
Q1 2008	+2.68pp
Q2 2008	+0.40pp
Q3 2008	+0.59pp
Q4 2008	+0.16pp
Q1 2009	-0.22pp
Q2 2009	+1.32pp
Q3 2009	+0.01pp
Q4 2009	-1.38pp
Q1 2010	-3.28pp
Q2 2010	-5.19pp
Q3 2010	-6.06pp
Q4 2010	-5.63pp
Q1 2011	-4.65pp
Q2 2011	-4.42pp
Q3 2011	-3.60pp
Q4 2011	-3.71pp
Q1 2012	-4.83pp
Q2 2012	-4.25pp
Q3 2012	-4.22pp
Q4 2012	-4.54pp
Q1 2013	-4.29pp
Q2 2013	-3.69pp
Q3 2013	-3.84pp
Q4 2013	-2.52pp
Q1 2014	-1.18pp
Q2 2014	-2.11pp
Q3 2014	-2.76pp
Q4 2014	-2.67pp
Q1 2015	-3.39pp
Q2 2015	-2.44pp
Q3 2015	-0.88pp
Q4 2015	-0.91pp
Q1 2016	-0.36pp
Q2 2016	-0.23pp
Q3 2016	-0.31pp
Q4 2016	-0.42pp
Q1 2017	-0.69pp
Q2 2017	-0.46pp
Q3 2017	-0.78pp
Q4 2017	-1.05pp
Q1 2018	-1.44pp
Q2 2018	-1.83pp
Q3 2018	-1.58pp
Q4 2018	-0.83pp
Q1 2019	-0.53pp
Q2 2019	-0.38pp
Q3 2019	-0.55pp
Q4 2019	-0.78pp
Q1 2020	+0.43pp
Q2 2020	+7.19pp
Q3 2020	+1.96pp
Q4 2020	+1.53pp
Q1 2021	-0.63pp
Q2 2021	-6.65pp
Q3 2021	-1.45pp
Q4 2021	-2.03pp
Q1 2022	-0.65pp
Q2 2022	-1.39pp
Q3 2022	-1.08pp
Q4 2022	-0.30pp
Q1 2023	-1.37pp
Q2 2023	-1.41pp
Q3 2023	-2.10pp
Q4 2023	-2.38pp
Q1 2024	-1.94pp
Q2 2024	-2.31pp
Q3 2024	-1.78pp
Q4 2024	-1.73pp
Q1 2025	-1.39pp
Q2 2025	-1.18pp
Q3 2025	-1.49pp
Q4 2025	-1.07pp
Q1 2026	-1.40pp
Q2 2026	-1.53pp

Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 via FRED CMDEBT and GDP; YRI calculations.

Note: The household half of the BIS private-credit measure, published about ten weeks after quarter-end rather than three quarters. It read at the 87th, 87th and 79th percentiles at the 1987, 2000 and 2007 peaks and low before 1968, 1973 and 2021, which were not credit busts.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 11

2-Year Treasury Yield

(constant maturity, percent, monthly; 1-year yield before June 1976)

Triggers: the 2-year yield is up 115bp from its December 2025 low; the dial scores the rise from the trailing 8-quarter low

2-yr yield (Sep 2026 = 4.65%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

2-Year Treasury Yield (data)
Date	2-yr yield
Apr 1953	2.36%
May 1953	2.48%
Jun 1953	2.45%
Jul 1953	2.38%
Aug 1953	2.28%
Sep 1953	2.20%
Oct 1953	1.79%
Nov 1953	1.67%
Dec 1953	1.66%
Jan 1954	1.41%
Feb 1954	1.14%
Mar 1954	1.13%
Apr 1954	0.96%
May 1954	0.85%
Jun 1954	0.82%
Jul 1954	0.84%
Aug 1954	0.88%
Sep 1954	1.03%
Oct 1954	1.17%
Nov 1954	1.14%
Dec 1954	1.21%
Jan 1955	1.39%
Feb 1955	1.57%
Mar 1955	1.59%
Apr 1955	1.75%
May 1955	1.90%
Jun 1955	1.91%
Jul 1955	2.02%
Aug 1955	2.37%
Sep 1955	2.36%
Oct 1955	2.39%
Nov 1955	2.48%
Dec 1955	2.73%
Jan 1956	2.58%
Feb 1956	2.49%
Mar 1956	2.61%
Apr 1956	2.92%
May 1956	2.94%
Jun 1956	2.74%
Jul 1956	2.76%
Aug 1956	3.10%
Sep 1956	3.35%
Oct 1956	3.28%
Nov 1956	3.44%
Dec 1956	3.68%
Jan 1957	3.37%
Feb 1957	3.38%
Mar 1957	3.42%
Apr 1957	3.49%
May 1957	3.48%
Jun 1957	3.65%
Jul 1957	3.81%
Aug 1957	4.01%
Sep 1957	4.07%
Oct 1957	4.01%
Nov 1957	3.57%
Dec 1957	3.18%
Jan 1958	2.65%
Feb 1958	1.99%
Mar 1958	1.84%
Apr 1958	1.45%
May 1958	1.37%
Jun 1958	1.23%
Jul 1958	1.61%
Aug 1958	2.50%
Sep 1958	3.05%
Oct 1958	3.19%
Nov 1958	3.10%
Dec 1958	3.29%
Jan 1959	3.36%
Feb 1959	3.54%
Mar 1959	3.61%
Apr 1959	3.72%
May 1959	3.96%
Jun 1959	4.07%
Jul 1959	4.39%
Aug 1959	4.42%
Sep 1959	5.00%
Oct 1959	4.80%
Nov 1959	4.81%
Dec 1959	5.14%
Jan 1960	5.03%
Feb 1960	4.66%
Mar 1960	4.02%
Apr 1960	4.04%
May 1960	4.21%
Jun 1960	3.36%
Jul 1960	3.20%
Aug 1960	2.95%
Sep 1960	3.07%
Oct 1960	3.04%
Nov 1960	3.08%
Dec 1960	2.86%
Jan 1961	2.81%
Feb 1961	2.93%
Mar 1961	2.88%
Apr 1961	2.88%
May 1961	2.87%
Jun 1961	3.06%
Jul 1961	2.92%
Aug 1961	3.06%
Sep 1961	3.06%
Oct 1961	3.05%
Nov 1961	3.07%
Dec 1961	3.18%
Jan 1962	3.28%
Feb 1962	3.28%
Mar 1962	3.06%
Apr 1962	2.99%
May 1962	3.03%
Jun 1962	3.03%
Jul 1962	3.29%
Aug 1962	3.20%
Sep 1962	3.06%
Oct 1962	2.98%
Nov 1962	3.00%
Dec 1962	3.01%
Jan 1963	3.04%
Feb 1963	3.01%
Mar 1963	3.03%
Apr 1963	3.11%
May 1963	3.12%
Jun 1963	3.20%
Jul 1963	3.48%
Aug 1963	3.53%
Sep 1963	3.57%
Oct 1963	3.64%
Nov 1963	3.74%
Dec 1963	3.81%
Jan 1964	3.79%
Feb 1964	3.78%
Mar 1964	3.91%
Apr 1964	3.91%
May 1964	3.84%
Jun 1964	3.83%
Jul 1964	3.72%
Aug 1964	3.74%
Sep 1964	3.84%
Oct 1964	3.86%
Nov 1964	3.91%
Dec 1964	4.02%
Jan 1965	3.94%
Feb 1965	4.03%
Mar 1965	4.06%
Apr 1965	4.04%
May 1965	4.03%
Jun 1965	3.99%
Jul 1965	3.98%
Aug 1965	4.07%
Sep 1965	4.20%
Oct 1965	4.30%
Nov 1965	4.37%
Dec 1965	4.72%
Jan 1966	4.88%
Feb 1966	4.94%
Mar 1966	4.97%
Apr 1966	4.90%
May 1966	4.93%
Jun 1966	4.97%
Jul 1966	5.17%
Aug 1966	5.54%
Sep 1966	5.82%
Oct 1966	5.58%
Nov 1966	5.54%
Dec 1966	5.20%
Jan 1967	4.75%
Feb 1967	4.71%
Mar 1967	4.35%
Apr 1967	4.11%
May 1967	4.15%
Jun 1967	4.48%
Jul 1967	5.01%
Aug 1967	5.13%
Sep 1967	5.24%
Oct 1967	5.37%
Nov 1967	5.61%
Dec 1967	5.71%
Jan 1968	5.43%
Feb 1968	5.41%
Mar 1968	5.58%
Apr 1968	5.71%
May 1968	6.14%
Jun 1968	5.98%
Jul 1968	5.65%
Aug 1968	5.43%
Sep 1968	5.45%
Oct 1968	5.57%
Nov 1968	5.75%
Dec 1968	6.19%
Jan 1969	6.34%
Feb 1969	6.41%
Mar 1969	6.34%
Apr 1969	6.26%
May 1969	6.42%
Jun 1969	7.04%
Jul 1969	7.60%
Aug 1969	7.54%
Sep 1969	7.82%
Oct 1969	7.64%
Nov 1969	7.89%
Dec 1969	8.17%
Jan 1970	8.10%
Feb 1970	7.59%
Mar 1970	6.97%
Apr 1970	7.06%
May 1970	7.75%
Jun 1970	7.55%
Jul 1970	7.10%
Aug 1970	6.98%
Sep 1970	6.73%
Oct 1970	6.43%
Nov 1970	5.51%
Dec 1970	5.00%
Jan 1971	4.57%
Feb 1971	3.89%
Mar 1971	3.69%
Apr 1971	4.30%
May 1971	5.04%
Jun 1971	5.64%
Jul 1971	6.04%
Aug 1971	5.80%
Sep 1971	5.41%
Oct 1971	4.91%
Nov 1971	4.67%
Dec 1971	4.60%
Jan 1972	4.28%
Feb 1972	4.27%
Mar 1972	4.67%
Apr 1972	4.96%
May 1972	4.64%
Jun 1972	4.93%
Jul 1972	4.96%
Aug 1972	4.98%
Sep 1972	5.52%
Oct 1972	5.52%
Nov 1972	5.27%
Dec 1972	5.52%
Jan 1973	5.89%
Feb 1973	6.19%
Mar 1973	6.85%
Apr 1973	6.85%
May 1973	6.89%
Jun 1973	7.31%
Jul 1973	8.39%
Aug 1973	8.82%
Sep 1973	8.31%
Oct 1973	7.40%
Nov 1973	7.57%
Dec 1973	7.27%
Jan 1974	7.42%
Feb 1974	6.88%
Mar 1974	7.76%
Apr 1974	8.62%
May 1974	8.78%
Jun 1974	8.67%
Jul 1974	8.80%
Aug 1974	9.36%
Sep 1974	8.87%
Oct 1974	8.05%
Nov 1974	7.66%
Dec 1974	7.31%
Jan 1975	6.83%
Feb 1975	5.98%
Mar 1975	6.11%
Apr 1975	6.90%
May 1975	6.39%
Jun 1975	6.29%
Jul 1975	7.11%
Aug 1975	7.70%
Sep 1975	7.75%
Oct 1975	6.95%
Nov 1975	6.49%
Dec 1975	6.60%
Jan 1976	5.81%
Feb 1976	5.91%
Mar 1976	6.21%
Apr 1976	5.92%
May 1976	6.40%
Jun 1976	7.06%
Jul 1976	6.85%
Aug 1976	6.63%
Sep 1976	6.42%
Oct 1976	5.98%
Nov 1976	5.81%
Dec 1976	5.38%
Jan 1977	5.90%
Feb 1977	6.09%
Mar 1977	6.09%
Apr 1977	5.96%
May 1977	6.25%
Jun 1977	6.13%
Jul 1977	6.27%
Aug 1977	6.61%
Sep 1977	6.71%
Oct 1977	7.11%
Nov 1977	7.14%
Dec 1977	7.18%
Jan 1978	7.49%
Feb 1978	7.57%
Mar 1978	7.58%
Apr 1978	7.74%
May 1978	8.01%
Jun 1978	8.24%
Jul 1978	8.49%
Aug 1978	8.37%
Sep 1978	8.57%
Oct 1978	8.85%
Nov 1978	9.42%
Dec 1978	9.72%
Jan 1979	9.86%
Feb 1979	9.72%
Mar 1979	9.79%
Apr 1979	9.78%
May 1979	9.78%
Jun 1979	9.22%
Jul 1979	9.14%
Aug 1979	9.46%
Sep 1979	10.06%
Oct 1979	11.49%
Nov 1979	11.81%
Dec 1979	11.39%
Jan 1980	11.50%
Feb 1980	13.42%
Mar 1980	14.88%
Apr 1980	12.50%
May 1980	9.45%
Jun 1980	8.73%
Jul 1980	9.03%
Aug 1980	10.53%
Sep 1980	11.57%
Oct 1980	12.09%
Nov 1980	13.51%
Dec 1980	14.08%
Jan 1981	13.26%
Feb 1981	13.92%
Mar 1981	13.57%
Apr 1981	14.15%
May 1981	15.46%
Jun 1981	14.51%
Jul 1981	15.35%
Aug 1981	16.28%
Sep 1981	16.46%
Oct 1981	15.54%
Nov 1981	12.88%
Dec 1981	13.29%
Jan 1982	14.57%
Feb 1982	14.82%
Mar 1982	14.19%
Apr 1982	14.20%
May 1982	13.78%
Jun 1982	14.47%
Jul 1982	13.80%
Aug 1982	12.32%
Sep 1982	11.78%
Oct 1982	10.19%
Nov 1982	9.80%
Dec 1982	9.66%
Jan 1983	9.33%
Feb 1983	9.64%
Mar 1983	9.66%
Apr 1983	9.57%
May 1983	9.49%
Jun 1983	10.18%
Jul 1983	10.69%
Aug 1983	11.07%
Sep 1983	10.79%
Oct 1983	10.57%
Nov 1983	10.66%
Dec 1983	10.84%
Jan 1984	10.64%
Feb 1984	10.79%
Mar 1984	11.31%
Apr 1984	11.69%
May 1984	12.47%
Jun 1984	12.91%
Jul 1984	12.88%
Aug 1984	12.43%
Sep 1984	12.20%
Oct 1984	11.60%
Nov 1984	10.65%
Dec 1984	10.18%
Jan 1985	9.93%
Feb 1985	10.17%
Mar 1985	10.71%
Apr 1985	10.09%
May 1985	9.39%
Jun 1985	8.69%
Jul 1985	8.77%
Aug 1985	8.94%
Sep 1985	8.98%
Oct 1985	8.86%
Nov 1985	8.58%
Dec 1985	8.15%
Jan 1986	8.14%
Feb 1986	7.97%
Mar 1986	7.21%
Apr 1986	6.70%
May 1986	7.07%
Jun 1986	7.18%
Jul 1986	6.67%
Aug 1986	6.33%
Sep 1986	6.35%
Oct 1986	6.28%
Nov 1986	6.28%
Dec 1986	6.27%
Jan 1987	6.23%
Feb 1987	6.40%
Mar 1987	6.42%
Apr 1987	7.02%
May 1987	7.76%
Jun 1987	7.57%
Jul 1987	7.44%
Aug 1987	7.75%
Sep 1987	8.34%
Oct 1987	8.40%
Nov 1987	7.69%
Dec 1987	7.86%
Jan 1988	7.63%
Feb 1988	7.18%
Mar 1988	7.27%
Apr 1988	7.59%
May 1988	8.00%
Jun 1988	8.03%
Jul 1988	8.28%
Aug 1988	8.63%
Sep 1988	8.46%
Oct 1988	8.35%
Nov 1988	8.67%
Dec 1988	9.09%
Jan 1989	9.18%
Feb 1989	9.37%
Mar 1989	9.68%
Apr 1989	9.45%
May 1989	9.02%
Jun 1989	8.41%
Jul 1989	7.82%
Aug 1989	8.14%
Sep 1989	8.28%
Oct 1989	7.98%
Nov 1989	7.80%
Dec 1989	7.78%
Jan 1990	8.09%
Feb 1990	8.37%
Mar 1990	8.63%
Apr 1990	8.72%
May 1990	8.64%
Jun 1990	8.35%
Jul 1990	8.16%
Aug 1990	8.06%
Sep 1990	8.08%
Oct 1990	7.88%
Nov 1990	7.60%
Dec 1990	7.31%
Jan 1991	7.13%
Feb 1991	6.87%
Mar 1991	7.10%
Apr 1991	6.95%
May 1991	6.78%
Jun 1991	6.96%
Jul 1991	6.92%
Aug 1991	6.43%
Sep 1991	6.18%
Oct 1991	5.91%
Nov 1991	5.56%
Dec 1991	5.03%
Jan 1992	4.96%
Feb 1992	5.21%
Mar 1992	5.69%
Apr 1992	5.34%
May 1992	5.23%
Jun 1992	5.05%
Jul 1992	4.36%
Aug 1992	4.19%
Sep 1992	3.89%
Oct 1992	4.08%
Nov 1992	4.58%
Dec 1992	4.67%
Jan 1993	4.39%
Feb 1993	4.10%
Mar 1993	3.95%
Apr 1993	3.84%
May 1993	3.98%
Jun 1993	4.16%
Jul 1993	4.07%
Aug 1993	4.00%
Sep 1993	3.85%
Oct 1993	3.87%
Nov 1993	4.16%
Dec 1993	4.21%
Jan 1994	4.14%
Feb 1994	4.47%
Mar 1994	5.00%
Apr 1994	5.55%
May 1994	5.97%
Jun 1994	5.93%
Jul 1994	6.13%
Aug 1994	6.18%
Sep 1994	6.39%
Oct 1994	6.73%
Nov 1994	7.15%
Dec 1994	7.59%
Jan 1995	7.51%
Feb 1995	7.11%
Mar 1995	6.78%
Apr 1995	6.57%
May 1995	6.17%
Jun 1995	5.72%
Jul 1995	5.78%
Aug 1995	5.98%
Sep 1995	5.81%
Oct 1995	5.70%
Nov 1995	5.48%
Dec 1995	5.32%
Jan 1996	5.11%
Feb 1996	5.03%
Mar 1996	5.66%
Apr 1996	5.96%
May 1996	6.10%
Jun 1996	6.30%
Jul 1996	6.27%
Aug 1996	6.03%
Sep 1996	6.23%
Oct 1996	5.91%
Nov 1996	5.70%
Dec 1996	5.78%
Jan 1997	6.01%
Feb 1997	5.90%
Mar 1997	6.22%
Apr 1997	6.45%
May 1997	6.28%
Jun 1997	6.09%
Jul 1997	5.89%
Aug 1997	5.94%
Sep 1997	5.88%
Oct 1997	5.77%
Nov 1997	5.71%
Dec 1997	5.72%
Jan 1998	5.36%
Feb 1998	5.42%
Mar 1998	5.56%
Apr 1998	5.56%
May 1998	5.59%
Jun 1998	5.52%
Jul 1998	5.46%
Aug 1998	5.27%
Sep 1998	4.67%
Oct 1998	4.09%
Nov 1998	4.54%
Dec 1998	4.51%
Jan 1999	4.62%
Feb 1999	4.88%
Mar 1999	5.05%
Apr 1999	4.98%
May 1999	5.25%
Jun 1999	5.62%
Jul 1999	5.55%
Aug 1999	5.68%
Sep 1999	5.66%
Oct 1999	5.86%
Nov 1999	5.86%
Dec 1999	6.10%
Jan 2000	6.44%
Feb 2000	6.61%
Mar 2000	6.53%
Apr 2000	6.40%
May 2000	6.81%
Jun 2000	6.48%
Jul 2000	6.34%
Aug 2000	6.23%
Sep 2000	6.08%
Oct 2000	5.91%
Nov 2000	5.88%
Dec 2000	5.35%
Jan 2001	4.76%
Feb 2001	4.66%
Mar 2001	4.34%
Apr 2001	4.23%
May 2001	4.26%
Jun 2001	4.08%
Jul 2001	4.04%
Aug 2001	3.76%
Sep 2001	3.12%
Oct 2001	2.73%
Nov 2001	2.78%
Dec 2001	3.11%
Jan 2002	3.03%
Feb 2002	3.02%
Mar 2002	3.56%
Apr 2002	3.42%
May 2002	3.26%
Jun 2002	2.99%
Jul 2002	2.56%
Aug 2002	2.13%
Sep 2002	2.00%
Oct 2002	1.91%
Nov 2002	1.92%
Dec 2002	1.84%
Jan 2003	1.74%
Feb 2003	1.63%
Mar 2003	1.57%
Apr 2003	1.62%
May 2003	1.42%
Jun 2003	1.23%
Jul 2003	1.47%
Aug 2003	1.86%
Sep 2003	1.71%
Oct 2003	1.75%
Nov 2003	1.93%
Dec 2003	1.91%
Jan 2004	1.76%
Feb 2004	1.74%
Mar 2004	1.58%
Apr 2004	2.07%
May 2004	2.53%
Jun 2004	2.76%
Jul 2004	2.64%
Aug 2004	2.51%
Sep 2004	2.53%
Oct 2004	2.58%
Nov 2004	2.85%
Dec 2004	3.01%
Jan 2005	3.22%
Feb 2005	3.38%
Mar 2005	3.73%
Apr 2005	3.65%
May 2005	3.64%
Jun 2005	3.64%
Jul 2005	3.87%
Aug 2005	4.04%
Sep 2005	3.95%
Oct 2005	4.27%
Nov 2005	4.42%
Dec 2005	4.40%
Jan 2006	4.40%
Feb 2006	4.67%
Mar 2006	4.73%
Apr 2006	4.89%
May 2006	4.97%
Jun 2006	5.12%
Jul 2006	5.12%
Aug 2006	4.90%
Sep 2006	4.77%
Oct 2006	4.80%
Nov 2006	4.74%
Dec 2006	4.67%
Jan 2007	4.88%
Feb 2007	4.85%
Mar 2007	4.57%
Apr 2007	4.67%
May 2007	4.77%
Jun 2007	4.98%
Jul 2007	4.82%
Aug 2007	4.31%
Sep 2007	4.01%
Oct 2007	3.97%
Nov 2007	3.34%
Dec 2007	3.12%
Jan 2008	2.48%
Feb 2008	1.97%
Mar 2008	1.62%
Apr 2008	2.05%
May 2008	2.45%
Jun 2008	2.77%
Jul 2008	2.57%
Aug 2008	2.42%
Sep 2008	2.08%
Oct 2008	1.61%
Nov 2008	1.21%
Dec 2008	0.82%
Jan 2009	0.81%
Feb 2009	0.98%
Mar 2009	0.93%
Apr 2009	0.93%
May 2009	0.93%
Jun 2009	1.18%
Jul 2009	1.02%
Aug 2009	1.12%
Sep 2009	0.96%
Oct 2009	0.95%
Nov 2009	0.80%
Dec 2009	0.87%
Jan 2010	0.93%
Feb 2010	0.86%
Mar 2010	0.96%
Apr 2010	1.06%
May 2010	0.83%
Jun 2010	0.72%
Jul 2010	0.62%
Aug 2010	0.52%
Sep 2010	0.48%
Oct 2010	0.38%
Nov 2010	0.45%
Dec 2010	0.62%
Jan 2011	0.61%
Feb 2011	0.77%
Mar 2011	0.70%
Apr 2011	0.73%
May 2011	0.56%
Jun 2011	0.41%
Jul 2011	0.41%
Aug 2011	0.23%
Sep 2011	0.21%
Oct 2011	0.28%
Nov 2011	0.25%
Dec 2011	0.26%
Jan 2012	0.24%
Feb 2012	0.28%
Mar 2012	0.34%
Apr 2012	0.29%
May 2012	0.29%
Jun 2012	0.29%
Jul 2012	0.25%
Aug 2012	0.27%
Sep 2012	0.26%
Oct 2012	0.28%
Nov 2012	0.27%
Dec 2012	0.26%
Jan 2013	0.27%
Feb 2013	0.27%
Mar 2013	0.26%
Apr 2013	0.23%
May 2013	0.25%
Jun 2013	0.33%
Jul 2013	0.34%
Aug 2013	0.36%
Sep 2013	0.40%
Oct 2013	0.34%
Nov 2013	0.30%
Dec 2013	0.34%
Jan 2014	0.39%
Feb 2014	0.33%
Mar 2014	0.40%
Apr 2014	0.42%
May 2014	0.39%
Jun 2014	0.45%
Jul 2014	0.51%
Aug 2014	0.47%
Sep 2014	0.57%
Oct 2014	0.45%
Nov 2014	0.53%
Dec 2014	0.64%
Jan 2015	0.55%
Feb 2015	0.62%
Mar 2015	0.64%
Apr 2015	0.54%
May 2015	0.61%
Jun 2015	0.69%
Jul 2015	0.67%
Aug 2015	0.70%
Sep 2015	0.71%
Oct 2015	0.64%
Nov 2015	0.88%
Dec 2015	0.98%
Jan 2016	0.90%
Feb 2016	0.73%
Mar 2016	0.88%
Apr 2016	0.77%
May 2016	0.82%
Jun 2016	0.73%
Jul 2016	0.67%
Aug 2016	0.74%
Sep 2016	0.77%
Oct 2016	0.84%
Nov 2016	0.98%
Dec 2016	1.20%
Jan 2017	1.21%
Feb 2017	1.20%
Mar 2017	1.31%
Apr 2017	1.24%
May 2017	1.30%
Jun 2017	1.34%
Jul 2017	1.37%
Aug 2017	1.34%
Sep 2017	1.38%
Oct 2017	1.55%
Nov 2017	1.70%
Dec 2017	1.84%
Jan 2018	2.03%
Feb 2018	2.18%
Mar 2018	2.28%
Apr 2018	2.38%
May 2018	2.51%
Jun 2018	2.53%
Jul 2018	2.61%
Aug 2018	2.64%
Sep 2018	2.77%
Oct 2018	2.86%
Nov 2018	2.86%
Dec 2018	2.68%
Jan 2019	2.54%
Feb 2019	2.50%
Mar 2019	2.41%
Apr 2019	2.34%
May 2019	2.21%
Jun 2019	1.81%
Jul 2019	1.84%
Aug 2019	1.57%
Sep 2019	1.65%
Oct 2019	1.55%
Nov 2019	1.61%
Dec 2019	1.61%
Jan 2020	1.52%
Feb 2020	1.33%
Mar 2020	0.45%
Apr 2020	0.22%
May 2020	0.17%
Jun 2020	0.19%
Jul 2020	0.15%
Aug 2020	0.14%
Sep 2020	0.13%
Oct 2020	0.15%
Nov 2020	0.17%
Dec 2020	0.14%
Jan 2021	0.13%
Feb 2021	0.12%
Mar 2021	0.15%
Apr 2021	0.16%
May 2021	0.16%
Jun 2021	0.20%
Jul 2021	0.22%
Aug 2021	0.22%
Sep 2021	0.24%
Oct 2021	0.39%
Nov 2021	0.51%
Dec 2021	0.68%
Jan 2022	0.98%
Feb 2022	1.44%
Mar 2022	1.91%
Apr 2022	2.54%
May 2022	2.62%
Jun 2022	3.00%
Jul 2022	3.04%
Aug 2022	3.25%
Sep 2022	3.86%
Oct 2022	4.38%
Nov 2022	4.50%
Dec 2022	4.29%
Jan 2023	4.21%
Feb 2023	4.53%
Mar 2023	4.30%
Apr 2023	4.02%
May 2023	4.13%
Jun 2023	4.64%
Jul 2023	4.83%
Aug 2023	4.90%
Sep 2023	5.02%
Oct 2023	5.07%
Nov 2023	4.88%
Dec 2023	4.46%
Jan 2024	4.32%
Feb 2024	4.54%
Mar 2024	4.59%
Apr 2024	4.87%
May 2024	4.86%
Jun 2024	4.74%
Jul 2024	4.50%
Aug 2024	3.97%
Sep 2024	3.62%
Oct 2024	3.97%
Nov 2024	4.26%
Dec 2024	4.23%
Jan 2025	4.27%
Feb 2025	4.21%
Mar 2025	3.97%
Apr 2025	3.78%
May 2025	3.92%
Jun 2025	3.89%
Jul 2025	3.88%
Aug 2025	3.70%
Sep 2025	3.57%
Oct 2025	3.52%
Nov 2025	3.55%
Dec 2025	3.50%
Jan 2026	3.54%
Feb 2026	3.47%
Mar 2026	3.71%
Apr 2026	3.80%
May 2026	4.00%
Jun 2026	4.11%
Jul 2026	4.22%
Aug 2026	4.22%
Sep 2026	4.65%

Source: FRED GS2 and GS1.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 12

Margin Debt: Growth

(debit balances in customers’ securities margin accounts, 12-month percent change, monthly)

Triggers: margin debt is a record $1.48 trillion, up 31% y/y; growth hit 80% before the 2000 peak and 37% before 2007

Margin debt, y/y (Sep 2026 = 31.4%)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Margin Debt: Growth (data)
Date	Margin debt, y/y
Jan 1998	28.6%
Feb 1998	36.0%
Mar 1998	39.8%
Apr 1998	42.5%
May 1998	35.3%
Jun 1998	29.9%
Jul 1998	32.9%
Aug 1998	25.3%
Sep 1998	9.5%
Oct 1998	2.9%
Nov 1998	12.0%
Dec 1998	13.0%
Jan 1999	22.1%
Feb 1999	15.3%
Mar 1999	13.4%
Apr 1999	25.7%
May 1999	26.4%
Jun 1999	21.6%
Jul 1999	17.7%
Aug 1999	20.4%
Sep 1999	31.3%
Oct 1999	40.4%
Nov 1999	46.8%
Dec 1999	62.8%
Jan 2000	60.4%
Feb 2000	74.5%
Mar 2000	80.5%
Apr 2000	45.8%
May 2000	35.2%
Jun 2000	40.9%
Jul 2000	39.2%
Aug 2000	41.3%
Sep 2000	42.4%
Oct 2000	29.2%
Nov 2000	9.0%
Dec 2000	-13.1%
Jan 2001	-19.9%
Feb 2001	-30.0%
Mar 2001	-41.7%
Apr 2001	-34.5%
May 2001	-28.7%
Jun 2001	-32.1%
Jul 2001	-34.1%
Aug 2001	-36.1%
Sep 2001	-41.6%
Oct 2001	-39.3%
Nov 2001	-33.0%
Dec 2001	-23.7%
Jan 2002	-22.9%
Feb 2002	-22.1%
Mar 2002	-8.4%
Apr 2002	-9.7%
May 2002	-13.8%
Jun 2002	-14.3%
Jul 2002	-17.1%
Aug 2002	-17.8%
Sep 2002	-13.8%
Oct 2002	-9.0%
Nov 2002	-12.5%
Dec 2002	-13.1%
Jan 2003	-12.1%
Feb 2003	-9.3%
Mar 2003	-9.9%
Apr 2003	-10.0%
May 2003	-2.6%
Jun 2003	9.3%
Jul 2003	21.2%
Aug 2003	20.2%
Sep 2003	25.8%
Oct 2003	26.5%
Nov 2003	30.9%
Dec 2003	30.1%
Jan 2004	34.0%
Feb 2004	35.5%
Mar 2004	32.7%
Apr 2004	38.8%
May 2004	26.1%
Jun 2004	15.3%
Jul 2004	7.7%
Aug 2004	12.3%
Sep 2004	13.1%
Oct 2004	12.9%
Nov 2004	15.6%
Dec 2004	19.9%
Jan 2005	16.2%
Feb 2005	17.2%
Mar 2005	18.5%
Apr 2005	9.4%
May 2005	13.2%
Jun 2005	15.5%
Jul 2005	24.4%
Aug 2005	23.2%
Sep 2005	26.3%
Oct 2005	21.1%
Nov 2005	15.1%
Dec 2005	12.2%
Jan 2006	16.2%
Feb 2006	11.9%
Mar 2006	14.3%
Apr 2006	21.9%
May 2006	16.5%
Jun 2006	12.2%
Jul 2006	9.6%
Aug 2006	7.8%
Sep 2006	7.0%
Oct 2006	11.6%
Nov 2006	21.4%
Dec 2006	24.2%
Jan 2007	21.8%
Feb 2007	28.7%
Mar 2007	22.5%
Apr 2007	29.0%
May 2007	49.6%
Jun 2007	62.4%
Jul 2007	62.6%
Aug 2007	45.4%
Sep 2007	37.2%
Oct 2007	40.8%
Nov 2007	28.7%
Dec 2007	17.1%
Jan 2008	17.4%
Feb 2008	17.4%
Mar 2008	10.0%
Apr 2008	-2.9%
May 2008	-10.6%
Jun 2008	-15.1%
Jul 2008	-17.6%
Aug 2008	-10.4%
Sep 2008	-3.7%
Oct 2008	-26.4%
Nov 2008	-40.1%
Dec 2008	-40.8%
Jan 2009	-43.9%
Feb 2009	-47.1%
Mar 2009	-41.6%
Apr 2009	-37.4%
May 2009	-37.2%
Jun 2009	-37.4%
Jul 2009	-33.4%
Aug 2009	-27.3%
Sep 2009	-26.5%
Oct 2009	-4.4%
Nov 2009	10.4%
Dec 2009	24.8%
Jan 2010	30.0%
Feb 2010	32.1%
Mar 2010	36.2%
Apr 2010	42.1%
May 2010	25.3%
Jun 2010	21.2%
Jul 2010	16.9%
Aug 2010	13.6%
Sep 2010	13.6%
Oct 2010	14.3%
Nov 2010	23.2%
Dec 2010	19.5%
Jan 2011	22.7%
Feb 2011	32.4%
Mar 2011	27.9%
Apr 2011	22.1%
May 2011	32.5%
Jun 2011	31.2%
Jul 2011	28.8%
Aug 2011	15.1%
Sep 2011	3.4%
Oct 2011	4.5%
Nov 2011	-1.7%
Dec 2011	-3.8%
Jan 2012	-5.2%
Feb 2012	-7.4%
Mar 2012	-6.9%
Apr 2012	-7.1%
May 2012	-11.4%
Jun 2012	-7.0%
Jul 2012	-9.0%
Aug 2012	3.7%
Sep 2012	13.7%
Oct 2012	8.0%
Nov 2012	15.6%
Dec 2012	17.7%
Jan 2013	25.3%
Feb 2013	20.8%
Mar 2013	22.1%
Apr 2013	21.9%
May 2013	27.4%
Jun 2013	27.0%
Jul 2013	31.4%
Aug 2013	29.4%
Sep 2013	27.6%
Oct 2013	30.0%
Nov 2013	29.9%
Dec 2013	34.8%
Jan 2014	25.6%
Feb 2014	28.6%
Mar 2014	20.8%
Apr 2014	16.3%
May 2014	18.4%
Jun 2014	23.2%
Jul 2014	21.0%
Aug 2014	20.9%
Sep 2014	16.4%
Oct 2014	10.8%
Nov 2014	8.8%
Dec 2014	3.6%
Jan 2015	-0.3%
Feb 2015	0.6%
Mar 2015	6.2%
Apr 2015	15.7%
May 2015	13.9%
Jun 2015	9.1%
Jul 2015	6.4%
Aug 2015	3.0%
Sep 2015	-1.3%
Oct 2015	4.3%
Nov 2015	3.8%
Dec 2015	1.6%
Jan 2016	0.3%
Feb 2016	-6.1%
Mar 2016	-6.6%
Apr 2016	-10.0%
May 2016	-9.6%
Jun 2016	-11.0%
Jul 2016	-3.3%
Aug 2016	-1.1%
Sep 2016	8.7%
Oct 2016	1.9%
Nov 2016	4.8%
Dec 2016	5.2%
Jan 2017	13.6%
Feb 2017	19.9%
Mar 2017	19.4%
Apr 2017	19.3%
May 2017	19.0%
Jun 2017	19.8%
Jul 2017	15.8%
Aug 2017	16.9%
Sep 2017	12.2%
Oct 2017	16.1%
Nov 2017	16.2%
Dec 2017	21.4%
Jan 2018	20.3%
Feb 2018	13.4%
Mar 2018	11.7%
Apr 2018	10.4%
May 2018	14.8%
Jun 2018	10.7%
Jul 2018	9.8%
Aug 2018	9.4%
Sep 2018	6.9%
Oct 2018	0.0%
Nov 2018	-5.6%
Dec 2018	-13.8%
Jan 2019	-14.6%
Feb 2019	-9.9%
Mar 2019	-11.0%
Apr 2019	-9.7%
May 2019	-15.0%
Jun 2019	-7.8%
Jul 2019	-7.8%
Aug 2019	-13.4%
Sep 2019	-14.2%
Oct 2019	-8.7%
Nov 2019	-4.9%
Dec 2019	4.5%
Jan 2020	-1.2%
Feb 2020	-6.2%
Mar 2020	-16.5%
Apr 2020	-10.9%
May 2020	-2.8%
Jun 2020	-2.0%
Jul 2020	1.9%
Aug 2020	14.3%
Sep 2020	17.7%
Oct 2020	18.9%
Nov 2020	28.2%
Dec 2020	34.3%
Jan 2021	42.1%
Feb 2021	49.3%
Mar 2021	71.6%
Apr 2021	61.5%
May 2021	55.9%
Jun 2021	50.9%
Jul 2021	37.6%
Aug 2021	41.2%
Sep 2021	38.0%
Oct 2021	41.9%
Nov 2021	27.2%
Dec 2021	17.0%
Jan 2022	3.9%
Feb 2022	2.7%
Mar 2022	-2.8%
Apr 2022	-8.8%
May 2022	-12.6%
Jun 2022	-22.5%
Jul 2022	-17.5%
Aug 2022	-24.5%
Sep 2022	-26.5%
Oct 2022	-30.6%
Nov 2022	-29.9%
Dec 2022	-33.3%
Jan 2023	-22.7%
Feb 2023	-25.2%
Mar 2023	-19.3%
Apr 2023	-18.2%
May 2023	-14.4%
Jun 2023	-0.3%
Jul 2023	1.9%
Aug 2023	0.2%
Sep 2023	2.5%
Oct 2023	-2.2%
Nov 2023	2.7%
Dec 2023	15.5%
Jan 2024	9.5%
Feb 2024	19.0%
Mar 2024	21.5%
Apr 2024	22.7%
May 2024	25.7%
Jun 2024	18.8%
Jul 2024	14.2%
Aug 2024	15.7%
Sep 2024	19.4%
Oct 2024	28.3%
Nov 2024	34.8%
Dec 2024	28.3%
Jan 2025	33.5%
Feb 2025	23.6%
Mar 2025	12.3%
Apr 2025	9.7%
May 2025	13.8%
Jun 2025	24.5%
Jul 2025	26.1%
Aug 2025	32.9%
Sep 2025	38.5%
Oct 2025	45.2%
Nov 2025	36.3%
Dec 2025	36.3%
Jan 2026	36.5%
Feb 2026	36.5%
Mar 2026	38.7%
Apr 2026	53.3%
May 2026	53.7%
Jun 2026	49.0%
Jul 2026	38.6%
Aug 2026	37.2%
Sep 2026	31.4%

Source: FINRA margin statistics; YRI calculations.

Note: FINRA data start in 1997, so the component is scored from 2008 with one bust in sample (AUC 0.34; 0.59 with a five-year minimum history, when it read 84th at the 2007 peak). Kept for the longer record of margin debt as a leverage measure; a longer series (NYSE from 1959) would allow a real test.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 13

Bank Loans to Nondepository Financial Institutions

(all commercial banks, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars, monthly; the banking system’s lending to private credit funds, BDCs, mortgage companies and other nonbank lenders)

Reference, not in the dial: bank lending to nonbank lenders has reached $2.1 trillion, up 20% from a year ago

Loans to NDFIs, $bn (Sep 2026 = 2,064)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Bank Loans to Nondepository Financial Institutions (data)
Date	Loans to NDFIs, $bn
Jan 2015	324
Feb 2015	329
Mar 2015	338
Apr 2015	342
May 2015	347
Jun 2015	353
Jul 2015	353
Aug 2015	360
Sep 2015	367
Oct 2015	374
Nov 2015	371
Dec 2015	384
Jan 2016	388
Feb 2016	393
Mar 2016	396
Apr 2016	400
May 2016	403
Jun 2016	409
Jul 2016	410
Aug 2016	409
Sep 2016	408
Oct 2016	408
Nov 2016	409
Dec 2016	410
Jan 2017	407
Feb 2017	411
Mar 2017	414
Apr 2017	419
May 2017	426
Jun 2017	425
Jul 2017	430
Aug 2017	432
Sep 2017	437
Oct 2017	440
Nov 2017	443
Dec 2017	443
Jan 2018	447
Feb 2018	450
Mar 2018	451
Apr 2018	459
May 2018	461
Jun 2018	466
Jul 2018	472
Aug 2018	476
Sep 2018	479
Oct 2018	486
Nov 2018	487
Dec 2018	499
Jan 2019	511
Feb 2019	521
Mar 2019	519
Apr 2019	521
May 2019	532
Jun 2019	540
Jul 2019	546
Aug 2019	558
Sep 2019	564
Oct 2019	572
Nov 2019	576
Dec 2019	581
Jan 2020	582
Feb 2020	592
Mar 2020	646
Apr 2020	686
May 2020	665
Jun 2020	647
Jul 2020	628
Aug 2020	634
Sep 2020	644
Oct 2020	650
Nov 2020	653
Dec 2020	659
Jan 2021	674
Feb 2021	685
Mar 2021	688
Apr 2021	691
May 2021	702
Jun 2021	716
Jul 2021	732
Aug 2021	747
Sep 2021	760
Oct 2021	767
Nov 2021	779
Dec 2021	805
Jan 2022	820
Feb 2022	822
Mar 2022	828
Apr 2022	826
May 2022	837
Jun 2022	847
Jul 2022	854
Aug 2022	864
Sep 2022	873
Oct 2022	880
Nov 2022	890
Dec 2022	895
Jan 2023	898
Feb 2023	908
Mar 2023	922
Apr 2023	935
May 2023	943
Jun 2023	949
Jul 2023	958
Aug 2023	966
Sep 2023	975
Oct 2023	991
Nov 2023	997
Dec 2023	1,002
Jan 2024	1,005
Feb 2024	1,012
Mar 2024	1,014
Apr 2024	1,026
May 2024	1,048
Jun 2024	1,076
Jul 2024	1,092
Aug 2024	1,100
Sep 2024	1,108
Oct 2024	1,123
Nov 2024	1,139
Dec 2024	1,202
Jan 2025	1,412
Feb 2025	1,430
Mar 2025	1,469
Apr 2025	1,554
May 2025	1,568
Jun 2025	1,599
Jul 2025	1,674
Aug 2025	1,699
Sep 2025	1,722
Oct 2025	1,760
Nov 2025	1,793
Dec 2025	1,825
Jan 2026	1,878
Feb 2026	1,912
Mar 2026	1,940
Apr 2026	1,970
May 2026	1,987
Jun 2026	1,999
Jul 2026	2,019
Aug 2026	2,041
Sep 2026	2,064

Source: Federal Reserve H.8 via FRED LNFACBM027SBOG.

Note: The closest public measure of the private-credit channel, but it begins in 2015, so it cannot be scored or tested. A jump of 17.5% in January 2025 reflects an H.8 reporting change (the same one that cut C&I loans by 3.7% that month) and is carried as published.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Fig. 14

Private Credit to GDP: Three-Year Change

(credit to the private non-financial sector, % of GDP, change over 12 quarters, percentage points, quarterly)

Reference, not in the dial: credit has been shrinking relative to GDP since 2021

3-yr change (Q4 2025 = -13.10pp)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Private Credit to GDP: Three-Year Change (data)
Date	3-yr change
Q1 1955	+9.00pp
Q2 1955	+9.00pp
Q3 1955	+8.60pp
Q4 1955	+8.50pp
Q1 1956	+8.70pp
Q2 1956	+9.40pp
Q3 1956	+9.80pp
Q4 1956	+9.90pp
Q1 1957	+9.30pp
Q2 1957	+8.80pp
Q3 1957	+7.50pp
Q4 1957	+7.00pp
Q1 1958	+7.30pp
Q2 1958	+7.30pp
Q3 1958	+7.80pp
Q4 1958	+8.10pp
Q1 1959	+7.30pp
Q2 1959	+6.70pp
Q3 1959	+6.40pp
Q4 1959	+6.70pp
Q1 1960	+6.50pp
Q2 1960	+7.00pp
Q3 1960	+7.30pp
Q4 1960	+8.00pp
Q1 1961	+8.00pp
Q2 1961	+8.10pp
Q3 1961	+7.70pp
Q4 1961	+7.20pp
Q1 1962	+6.90pp
Q2 1962	+6.90pp
Q3 1962	+6.80pp
Q4 1962	+7.00pp
Q1 1963	+7.40pp
Q2 1963	+7.40pp
Q3 1963	+7.50pp
Q4 1963	+7.30pp
Q1 1964	+6.40pp
Q2 1964	+6.00pp
Q3 1964	+5.60pp
Q4 1964	+5.90pp
Q1 1965	+6.80pp
Q2 1965	+7.20pp
Q3 1965	+7.00pp
Q4 1965	+5.90pp
Q1 1966	+5.20pp
Q2 1966	+4.40pp
Q3 1966	+3.20pp
Q4 1966	+2.10pp
Q1 1967	+2.20pp
Q2 1967	+2.30pp
Q3 1967	+2.40pp
Q4 1967	+3.50pp
Q1 1968	+2.00pp
Q2 1968	+1.60pp
Q3 1968	+1.20pp
Q4 1968	+1.80pp
Q1 1969	+1.50pp
Q2 1969	+1.90pp
Q3 1969	+2.40pp
Q4 1969	+3.10pp
Q1 1970	+2.70pp
Q2 1970	+2.70pp
Q3 1970	+2.90pp
Q4 1970	+1.50pp
Q1 1971	+2.60pp
Q2 1971	+2.90pp
Q3 1971	+3.60pp
Q4 1971	+3.20pp
Q1 1972	+4.20pp
Q2 1972	+4.30pp
Q3 1972	+4.70pp
Q4 1972	+4.60pp
Q1 1973	+5.60pp
Q2 1973	+5.60pp
Q3 1973	+5.60pp
Q4 1973	+4.90pp
Q1 1974	+5.40pp
Q2 1974	+6.10pp
Q3 1974	+6.30pp
Q4 1974	+6.10pp
Q1 1975	+4.70pp
Q2 1975	+3.20pp
Q3 1975	+2.30pp
Q4 1975	+1.30pp
Q1 1976	-0.60pp
Q2 1976	-1.60pp
Q3 1976	-2.10pp
Q4 1976	-1.60pp
Q1 1977	-1.50pp
Q2 1977	-2.00pp
Q3 1977	-2.20pp
Q4 1977	-1.50pp
Q1 1978	-0.10pp
Q2 1978	+1.20pp
Q3 1978	+2.20pp
Q4 1978	+2.60pp
Q1 1979	+3.60pp
Q2 1979	+5.00pp
Q3 1979	+5.90pp
Q4 1979	+5.90pp
Q1 1980	+6.00pp
Q2 1980	+4.40pp
Q3 1980	+4.60pp
Q4 1980	+4.30pp
Q1 1981	+2.90pp
Q2 1981	+2.10pp
Q3 1981	+1.10pp
Q4 1981	+0.90pp
Q1 1982	+1.90pp
Q2 1982	+1.40pp
Q3 1982	+1.20pp
Q4 1982	+1.30pp
Q1 1983	+0.90pp
Q2 1983	+2.20pp
Q3 1983	+2.10pp
Q4 1983	+2.00pp
Q1 1984	+3.20pp
Q2 1984	+4.20pp
Q3 1984	+5.40pp
Q4 1984	+7.20pp
Q1 1985	+7.90pp
Q2 1985	+8.60pp
Q3 1985	+9.20pp
Q4 1985	+11.20pp
Q1 1986	+11.60pp
Q2 1986	+12.50pp
Q3 1986	+14.00pp
Q4 1986	+16.00pp
Q1 1987	+16.20pp
Q2 1987	+16.70pp
Q3 1987	+17.10pp
Q4 1987	+16.10pp
Q1 1988	+15.30pp
Q2 1988	+14.70pp
Q3 1988	+13.80pp
Q4 1988	+11.80pp
Q1 1989	+11.20pp
Q2 1989	+10.00pp
Q3 1989	+7.80pp
Q4 1989	+5.80pp
Q1 1990	+6.10pp
Q2 1990	+4.40pp
Q3 1990	+3.20pp
Q4 1990	+2.40pp
Q1 1991	+1.50pp
Q2 1991	+0.80pp
Q3 1991	-0.40pp
Q4 1991	-1.80pp
Q1 1992	-2.50pp
Q2 1992	-4.00pp
Q3 1992	-4.50pp
Q4 1992	-6.00pp
Q1 1993	-7.30pp
Q2 1993	-7.20pp
Q3 1993	-6.70pp
Q4 1993	-6.30pp
Q1 1994	-5.60pp
Q2 1994	-5.80pp
Q3 1994	-5.00pp
Q4 1994	-3.70pp
Q1 1995	-2.80pp
Q2 1995	-0.80pp
Q3 1995	+0.50pp
Q4 1995	+2.30pp
Q1 1996	+3.60pp
Q2 1996	+4.00pp
Q3 1996	+4.00pp
Q4 1996	+3.50pp
Q1 1997	+3.30pp
Q2 1997	+3.80pp
Q3 1997	+4.70pp
Q4 1997	+4.70pp
Q1 1998	+5.70pp
Q2 1998	+6.80pp
Q3 1998	+7.40pp
Q4 1998	+7.90pp
Q1 1999	+8.60pp
Q2 1999	+9.00pp
Q3 1999	+10.60pp
Q4 1999	+11.60pp
Q1 2000	+12.70pp
Q2 2000	+13.00pp
Q3 2000	+12.70pp
Q4 2000	+12.60pp
Q1 2001	+11.40pp
Q2 2001	+11.40pp
Q3 2001	+12.30pp
Q4 2001	+12.00pp
Q1 2002	+11.60pp
Q2 2002	+11.90pp
Q3 2002	+11.10pp
Q4 2002	+11.70pp
Q1 2003	+11.30pp
Q2 2003	+12.80pp
Q3 2003	+13.00pp
Q4 2003	+12.60pp
Q1 2004	+13.40pp
Q2 2004	+12.20pp
Q3 2004	+11.00pp
Q4 2004	+11.80pp
Q1 2005	+11.30pp
Q2 2005	+11.60pp
Q3 2005	+11.80pp
Q4 2005	+11.70pp
Q1 2006	+12.90pp
Q2 2006	+12.40pp
Q3 2006	+13.10pp
Q4 2006	+14.60pp
Q1 2007	+15.20pp
Q2 2007	+16.90pp
Q3 2007	+17.80pp
Q4 2007	+17.40pp
Q1 2008	+18.10pp
Q2 2008	+16.40pp
Q3 2008	+16.00pp
Q4 2008	+13.40pp
Q1 2009	+11.30pp
Q2 2009	+10.00pp
Q3 2009	+8.50pp
Q4 2009	+5.30pp
Q1 2010	+2.40pp
Q2 2010	-2.80pp
Q3 2010	-6.60pp
Q4 2010	-10.20pp
Q1 2011	-12.70pp
Q2 2011	-13.80pp
Q3 2011	-15.50pp
Q4 2011	-14.90pp
Q1 2012	-16.10pp
Q2 2012	-17.80pp
Q3 2012	-18.10pp
Q4 2012	-16.80pp
Q1 2013	-16.10pp
Q2 2013	-13.40pp
Q3 2013	-11.30pp
Q4 2013	-9.10pp
Q1 2014	-7.50pp
Q2 2014	-6.40pp
Q3 2014	-6.30pp
Q4 2014	-5.40pp
Q1 2015	-4.50pp
Q2 2015	-2.70pp
Q3 2015	-1.90pp
Q4 2015	-1.90pp
Q1 2016	0.00pp
Q2 2016	+0.60pp
Q3 2016	+1.40pp
Q4 2016	+0.90pp
Q1 2017	+1.30pp
Q2 2017	+2.20pp
Q3 2017	+3.00pp
Q4 2017	+3.50pp
Q1 2018	+3.30pp
Q2 2018	+3.30pp
Q3 2018	+2.40pp
Q4 2018	+2.70pp
Q1 2019	+1.90pp
Q2 2019	+1.50pp
Q3 2019	+0.80pp
Q4 2019	+0.70pp
Q1 2020	+3.50pp
Q2 2020	+8.60pp
Q3 2020	+9.60pp
Q4 2020	+10.20pp
Q1 2021	+11.40pp
Q2 2021	+8.70pp
Q3 2021	+7.40pp
Q4 2021	+6.10pp
Q1 2022	+4.90pp
Q2 2022	+3.40pp
Q3 2022	+1.50pp
Q4 2022	+0.50pp
Q1 2023	-4.30pp
Q2 2023	-11.70pp
Q3 2023	-14.30pp
Q4 2023	-17.00pp
Q1 2024	-18.30pp
Q2 2024	-17.20pp
Q3 2024	-16.10pp
Q4 2024	-16.80pp
Q1 2025	-16.40pp
Q2 2025	-15.80pp
Q3 2025	-14.40pp
Q4 2025	-13.10pp

Source: BIS via FRED QUSPAM770A; YRI calculations.

Note: Reference only: quarterly and published with a three-quarter lag (latest Q4 2025). AUC 0.73 on 1965 to 2024.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

History

Conditions since 1965, Triggers since 1981, and what followed each reading.

Fig. 15

Conditions vs. Triggers, 1965–2026

(dial readings, 0–100, quarterly; shaded = S&P 500 declines of 20%+)

Busts came when both dials were High

Conditions (Q2 2026 = 79)
Triggers (Q3 2026 = 52)
S&P 500 decline of 20%+

Conditions vs. Triggers, 1965–2026 (data)
Date	Conditions	Triggers
Q1 1965	68	—
Q2 1965	58	—
Q3 1965	66	—
Q4 1965	69	—
Q1 1966	68	—
Q2 1966	57	—
Q3 1966	46	—
Q4 1966	47	—
Q1 1967	52	—
Q2 1967	60	—
Q3 1967	73	—
Q4 1967	90	—
Q1 1968	79	—
Q2 1968	90	—
Q3 1968	82	—
Q4 1968	90	—
Q1 1969	94	—
Q2 1969	88	—
Q3 1969	82	—
Q4 1969	72	—
Q1 1970	57	—
Q2 1970	46	—
Q3 1970	54	—
Q4 1970	57	—
Q1 1971	68	—
Q2 1971	73	—
Q3 1971	70	—
Q4 1971	70	—
Q1 1972	79	—
Q2 1972	83	—
Q3 1972	86	—
Q4 1972	92	—
Q1 1973	83	—
Q2 1973	71	—
Q3 1973	71	—
Q4 1973	51	—
Q1 1974	44	—
Q2 1974	38	—
Q3 1974	27	—
Q4 1974	21	—
Q1 1975	14	—
Q2 1975	29	—
Q3 1975	34	—
Q4 1975	35	—
Q1 1976	45	—
Q2 1976	47	—
Q3 1976	43	—
Q4 1976	34	—
Q1 1977	31	—
Q2 1977	33	—
Q3 1977	32	—
Q4 1977	38	—
Q1 1978	37	—
Q2 1978	43	—
Q3 1978	44	—
Q4 1978	39	—
Q1 1979	39	—
Q2 1979	34	—
Q3 1979	37	—
Q4 1979	40	—
Q1 1980	51	—
Q2 1980	50	—
Q3 1980	58	—
Q4 1980	71	—
Q1 1981	73	55
Q2 1981	75	64
Q3 1981	75	63
Q4 1981	73	59
Q1 1982	62	72
Q2 1982	58	65
Q3 1982	58	43
Q4 1982	54	33
Q1 1983	62	22
Q2 1983	71	20
Q3 1983	76	28
Q4 1983	77	32
Q1 1984	74	45
Q2 1984	65	56
Q3 1984	61	60
Q4 1984	56	55
Q1 1985	56	62
Q2 1985	54	53
Q3 1985	55	57
Q4 1985	73	57
Q1 1986	79	58
Q2 1986	80	58
Q3 1986	76	60
Q4 1986	78	64
Q1 1987	83	65
Q2 1987	84	69
Q3 1987	83	71
Q4 1987	75	56
Q1 1988	65	57
Q2 1988	49	59
Q3 1988	42	60
Q4 1988	43	66
Q1 1989	49	66
Q2 1989	51	57
Q3 1989	60	58
Q4 1989	60	53
Q1 1990	57	55
Q2 1990	46	46
Q3 1990	39	39
Q4 1990	35	41
Q1 1991	39	38
Q2 1991	43	33
Q3 1991	50	30
Q4 1991	58	29
Q1 1992	49	23
Q2 1992	50	17
Q3 1992	48	23
Q4 1992	51	22
Q1 1993	50	22
Q2 1993	51	27
Q3 1993	57	27
Q4 1993	70	31
Q1 1994	72	35
Q2 1994	70	41
Q3 1994	65	45
Q4 1994	56	60
Q1 1995	55	61
Q2 1995	51	64
Q3 1995	54	63
Q4 1995	69	58
Q1 1996	77	50
Q2 1996	84	48
Q3 1996	79	46
Q4 1996	71	44
Q1 1997	77	43
Q2 1997	90	40
Q3 1997	90	39
Q4 1997	89	44
Q1 1998	91	43
Q2 1998	90	50
Q3 1998	84	57
Q4 1998	83	58
Q1 1999	81	60
Q2 1999	86	61
Q3 1999	88	67
Q4 1999	92	65
Q1 2000	93	75
Q2 2000	92	74
Q3 2000	90	75
Q4 2000	83	68
Q1 2001	76	57
Q2 2001	79	55
Q3 2001	74	55
Q4 2001	72	52
Q1 2002	74	56
Q2 2002	71	52
Q3 2002	62	51
Q4 2002	64	52
Q1 2003	60	50
Q2 2003	58	49
Q3 2003	58	53
Q4 2003	60	54
Q1 2004	61	52
Q2 2004	55	59
Q3 2004	63	61
Q4 2004	71	64
Q1 2005	72	80
Q2 2005	69	86
Q3 2005	71	85
Q4 2005	71	89
Q1 2006	73	87
Q2 2006	71	88
Q3 2006	69	87
Q4 2006	68	81
Q1 2007	66	76
Q2 2007	70	77
Q3 2007	69	75
Q4 2007	68	73
Q1 2008	60	69
Q2 2008	59	63
Q3 2008	56	60
Q4 2008	48	49
Q1 2009	45	41
Q2 2009	52	41
Q3 2009	54	29
Q4 2009	45	33
Q1 2010	45	34
Q2 2010	43	28
Q3 2010	44	25
Q4 2010	45	29
Q1 2011	46	34
Q2 2011	46	33
Q3 2011	42	29
Q4 2011	42	33
Q1 2012	44	34
Q2 2012	36	36
Q3 2012	45	39
Q4 2012	44	40
Q1 2013	51	40
Q2 2013	56	41
Q3 2013	58	39
Q4 2013	49	38
Q1 2014	61	37
Q2 2014	66	39
Q3 2014	67	41
Q4 2014	70	40
Q1 2015	62	40
Q2 2015	57	42
Q3 2015	45	42
Q4 2015	47	44
Q1 2016	43	44
Q2 2016	40	40
Q3 2016	46	39
Q4 2016	45	37
Q1 2017	53	38
Q2 2017	59	38
Q3 2017	62	34
Q4 2017	69	38
Q1 2018	71	37
Q2 2018	71	41
Q3 2018	62	38
Q4 2018	65	43
Q1 2019	54	41
Q2 2019	55	35
Q3 2019	50	31
Q4 2019	54	25
Q1 2020	60	41
Q2 2020	53	54
Q3 2020	73	52
Q4 2020	78	47
Q1 2021	82	32
Q2 2021	76	24
Q3 2021	76	27
Q4 2021	66	27
Q1 2022	55	33
Q2 2022	51	42
Q3 2022	48	49
Q4 2022	47	48
Q1 2023	55	43
Q2 2023	52	38
Q3 2023	50	36
Q4 2023	64	36
Q1 2024	58	36
Q2 2024	56	33
Q3 2024	63	23
Q4 2024	72	32
Q1 2025	66	26
Q2 2025	70	30
Q3 2025	74	27
Q4 2025	77	29
Q1 2026	76	37
Q2 2026	79	41
Q3 2026	—	52

Source: YRI calculations from the series above.

Note: Conditions through 2026Q2, Triggers from 1981Q1 through 2026Q3. Each point averages the components scored in that quarter (minimum four), so the makeup changes as series begin (see Notes). The dials above use each component’s latest published value.

Note: Shaded areas are peak-to-trough periods of S&P 500 declines of 20% or more, measured on monthly averages.

Outcomes by dial reading, 1981–2024

Share of quarters followed by a 20%+ S&P 500 decline within two years, and the median real S&P 500 return over the following two years. The highlighted cell is today’s mix.

Outcomes by dial reading: share of quarters followed by a 20%+ decline within two years
Conditions ↓ / Triggers →	Triggers Low	Triggers Moderate	Triggers High
Conditions Low	0% 2-yr real +24.5% · n=34	0% 2-yr real +11.1% · n=4	—
Conditions Moderate	3% 2-yr real +15% · n=39	7% 2-yr real +22.7% · n=27	67% 2-yr real −14.1% · n=3
Conditions High	0% 2-yr real +25% · n=24 Now	22% 2-yr real +3% · n=27	59% 2-yr real −14.4% · n=17

Readings at past peaks

Dial readings at past S&P 500 peaks
Peak	Conditions	Triggers	Max decline, next 2 yrs	2-yr real return
Go-go boom (peak Dec 1968)	90	—	−29%	−24.4%
Nifty Fifty (peak Jan 1973)	92	—	−42.9%	−53.3%
1987 crash (peak Aug 1987)	83	71	−24.4%	+0.2%
Tech/telecom (peak Mar 2000)	93	75	−27.6%	−23.4%
Housing/credit (peak Oct 2007)	69	75	−49.4%	−32.6%
Post-pandemic (peak Dec 2021)	66	27	−20.3%	−8.8%
Now (latest data)	76	45	—	—

Notes

How it works

Scoring. Each of the twelve indicators is ranked every quarter as a percentile of its own earlier history (expanding window from 1955, minimum ten years). No hindsight.
Conditions = average of six percentiles, listed by backtest score: foreign net buying of US equities (4-qtr average, % of GDP), consumers’ stock-market expectations (Michigan), investment share of GDP, Fed-model gap (earnings yield minus 10-yr yield, low gap ranks high), Buffett ratio (corporate equities / GDP), IPO activity (12-month count).
Triggers = average of six percentiles, listed by backtest score: NFCI nonfinancial leverage (weekly), GZ credit spread, C&I loan growth (monthly), household debt/GDP 4-qtr change (quarterly), 2-yr yield rise from its 8-qtr low, margin debt 12-month growth (monthly).
Order. Components in the tables and the charts are in descending order of AUC within each dial.
Zones and weights. Low below 50, Moderate 50 to 66, High 67 and above. Equal weights: tuned weights were tested on the original four-component dials and lost to equal weights out of sample.
Composition. Series start at different dates, so each dial averages the components scored at that date (minimum four). Conditions: four from 1965, five from 1971, six from 2012. Triggers: four from 1981, five from 1983, six from 2008.
Outcome tested. A 20%+ fall in the S&P 500 monthly-average price within 24 months. Two-dial results cover 175 quarters, 1981 to 2024; components with longer histories are tested from 1965.

Backtest

AUC (0.5 = coin flip, 1.0 = perfect): Triggers dial 0.86, Conditions dial 0.80. Component AUCs are in the tables at the top; the household equity share the Buffett ratio replaced scored 0.63.
Spread sign. The GZ spread enters as a level, wide = high. Wide spreads precede busts: the spread was at or above its 74th percentile a year before the 1987, 2000 and 2007 peaks. Inverted (tight = high) it scores 0.19.
BIS credit (reference chart) reports with a three-quarter lag, so it stays out of the dial; the household-debt component covers the same ground with a ten-week lag.

Tested and excluded

2-yr real S&P 500 return (the run-up): AUC 0.46 on 1965 to 2024, and 0.39 and 0.36 for 12- and 6-month windows. Every momentum measure tested scores below a coin flip: run-ups precede busts but also most good years. Removing it lifts Conditions from 0.74 to 0.80, with no decade block worse by more than 0.01; today’s reading is unchanged.
Others: household equity share 0.63 (replaced by the Buffett ratio, 97% rank-correlated); Baa minus 10-yr spread 0.59 and excess bond premium 0.75 (both below the GZ spread); inverted credit spread 0.19; fed funds rise from its low 0.65 but 86% correlated with the 2-yr rise and a drag on the dial; 10-yr yield level, rise and change 0.57 to 0.60; 10-yr minus nominal GDP growth 0.45; bear steepening 0.49; yield curve 0.67 but no gain to the dial; Fed model on the 2-yr 0.71 but 92% correlated with the 10-yr version; S&P 500 vs. its 200-day average 0.34. CAPE was removed by design, not by test.
Still in despite modest scores: IPO activity (0.51) and the Buffett ratio (0.60) are kept because a rush of listings and a market outgrowing the economy are defining signs of a bubble and each was high at most past peaks; their scores are low because they are also high in healthy bull markets. Margin debt (0.34) and consumer expectations (0.81) are scored from 2008 and 2012, so each has one bust in sample and its AUC is not evidence either way; both are flagged for that reason. Longer versions (NYSE margin debt from 1959, Conference Board expectations from 1987) exist but are not public. Bank loans to nonbank lenders (reference chart) start in 2015 and cannot be scored at all.

Data

As published. No carry-forward, no interpolation.
Latest readings: quarterly components at Q2 2026 (household debt included); monthly at September 2026; Fed model at June 2026 (last month of reported earnings); NFCI at the last week of September (chart runs through October 16); IPO activity at December 2025.
Sources: Federal Reserve Z.1 (corporate equities, foreign purchases, household debt) and H.8 (C&I loans, loans to nonbank lenders), BEA, BIS and Treasury yields via FRED; Chicago Fed (NFCI); Federal Reserve Board (GZ spread); FINRA (margin debt); Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida (IPO counts); University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (stock-market expectations); multpl.com (S&P 500 price and earnings); CPI via FRED.
Series start: investment 1947, C&I loans 1948, BIS credit 1950, Buffett ratio 1952, foreign buying 1952, household debt 1952, Fed model 1953, 2-yr yield 1953 (1-yr before June 1976), IPO count 1960, NFCI 1971, GZ spread 1973, margin debt 1997, consumer expectations 2002, loans to nonbank lenders 2015.

Macro US Equity Market Bubble Meter

Two dials: conditions and triggers

Conditions

Triggers

The Metrics

Foreign Net Buying of US Equities

Consumer Stock-Market Expectations

Gross Private Investment Share of GDP

Fed Model: Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield

Buffett Ratio: Corporate Equities to GDP

IPO Activity

NFCI Nonfinancial Leverage Subindex

Gilchrist–Zakrajšek Corporate Credit Spread

Commercial and Industrial Loans: Growth

Household Debt to GDP: One-Year Change

2-Year Treasury Yield

Margin Debt: Growth

Bank Loans to Nondepository Financial Institutions

Private Credit to GDP: Three-Year Change

History

Conditions vs. Triggers, 1965–2026

Outcomes by dial reading, 1981–2024

Readings at past peaks

Notes

How it works

Backtest

Tested and excluded

Data