What I Am Reading

Monday, October 12, 2026

Latest Morning Briefing

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping!

Consumer spending may seem to be defying economic gravity—remaining robust in the face of depressed consumer confidence, affordability concerns, and elevated interest rates. Indeed, the saving rate is dropping toward zero and could even turn negative by the end of the decade. Today, Ed and Elias explain why that’s no worry; why consumer spending has been so resilient, like the economy itself this decade; and why they expect the resilience of both to continue. … Also: Inflationary expectations are on the rise. That raises the risk that so are secondary inflationary effects from this year’s inflationary shocks. And that raises the probability that the Fed’s September rate hike won’t be the last this year. … And: Dr Ed reviews “Lioness” (+).

Credit

Narrow Stock-Market Rallies Aren’t Unusual. When to Start Worrying.Wall Street Journal
Why Economists Think Higher Bond Yields Are Here to StayWall Street Journal
A Credit-Score Shift at Fannie and Freddie Is Shaking Up the Mortgage MarketWall Street Journal
Four signs it is about to get uglier in the bond market as yields riseReuters

Commodities

Oil Rebounds on Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Doubts, Houthi Attack on Saudi AirportWall Street Journal
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Give Back Some GainsWall Street Journal

Central banks

India Sept inflation nears RBI tolerance ceiling, boosting case for further rate hikesReuters

China

Xi’s Superpower Ambitions Fuel a Dangerous Debt Spiral in ChinaWall Street Journal

AI

CFOs’ Key Partners For AI Transformation, According to BCGWall Street Journal
AI Agents Are a Threat to Travel Businesses. Airbnb Could Still Be a Winner.Wall Street Journal
FTX’s Old Bitcoin-Mining Assets Are Now Part of the AI BoomWall Street Journal

Corporate finance

Steris to Acquire Xodus Medical for $2.1 BillionWall Street Journal
Quantum-Computing Company IonQ to Buy Cybersecurity Firm for Up to $1.3 BillionWall Street Journal

Trade

Trump’s Russian-Diesel Move Draws Pushback, SkepticismWall Street Journal

Geopolitics

Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Trump’s Ceasefire AnnouncementWall Street Journal
NATO’s Top Commander Lays Out Plan to Thwart a Russian Attack on the AllianceWall Street Journal
Attacks on Saudi Airports Threaten the Kingdom’s AmbitionsWall Street Journal

Beyond Markets

Courts Grapple With Problem of People Betting on the Outcome of Jury CasesWall Street Journal